Towards to MRV in Indonesian
Transport Sector
Presented by :Hikmat Hidayat Putu
& Fahni Mauludi
Ministry of TransportationIndonesia
Photo : Hikmat (2011)
February 2011
OutlookCurrent Climate Change Progress Potential Mitigation Actions National Action Plan Local Action Plan BaU Approach Achievement of DGLTConclusion
Outline
Outlook
Sumber : ICCSR 2010 &
DNPI 2010
Proportion of Fuel consumption in transport sector
in 2005
Transport sector is Indonesia's largest consumer of primary energy (especially oil) 48% In 2005
CO2 emission from transport sector about 23%from energy sector (2005)
CO2 emission in 2010 67 Milion ton
The share of primary energy transportation sector (especially fuel) in 2005 : Road 90,7% Water 6,9% Air 2,4% Train <1%
Climate Change Progress
26% 26+15=41%
Our efffort Our effort and foreign funding
Presidential Decree No. 61/2011
NAP-GHG
Presidential Decree No. 71/2011
GHG Inventory
Forestry, Peat land
Farming
Energy and Transportation
Industry
Waste
Presidential Decree 61/2011
NATIONAL ACTION PLAN
ENERGY AND TRANSPORTATION SECTORS Emission Reduction Target (26%): 0.038 (Giga Tonne) CO2e 0,008 GT
(Transportation) Emission Reduction Target (41%): 1.056 (Giga Tonne) CO2e
Period 2010-2020
ENERGY AND TRANSPORTATION SECTORPolicies taken to support the NAP – GHG/RAN-GRK : 1. Increased energy saving 2. The use of cleaner fuels (fuel switching) 3. Enhancement of new and renewable energy (NRE) utilization 4. Utilization of clean technologies for both power generation and transportation equipment 5. Development of a low emission, sustainable and environmentally friendly national mass transport
Strategies: 1. Conserve the final energy both through the application of cleaner and more efficient technologies
and through reduction in the consumption of non-renewable energy (fossil) 2. Encourage the use of new and renewable energy in small and medium scales 3. (Avoid) – reduce the travel needs, particularly in city areas (trip demand management), through
land use management, reduce travel activities and unnecessary distances 4. (Shift) – shift from using private vehicles (transportation facilities with high energy consumption)
to low-carbon transportation pattern, such as non-motorized, public, or water transportation
Policies and Strategies
Core Activites and Supported Activities
AVOID
IMPROVE
Car labelling
NMT Infrastructure
ParkingManagement
Eco-Driving Campaign
ITS
CNG Switch
Traffic Impact Control (TIC)
Emission standard
Congestion charge
BRT
Public Transport Revitalize
ModernLogistics SHIFT
Local Action Plan
Local Action Plan
RAD-GRKLocal Action
Plan
2. Baseline GHG Emission
1. Source, Potention and
emission characteristic
GHG
3. Propose Mitigation Action
Plan 4. Priority of Mitigation Action
Selected
5. Institutions, Funding
Local Action Plan
Local Action Plan
Source : Ministrial Decree No. KP. 909 Year 2011
General Approach of Business As Usual
1. Prepare of the data nedeed, what are parameter/variable, such as :
• Number of vehicle• Population• National fuel consumption, etc.
2. Forecasting/Prediction Emission to 2020 (all parameter involved) bottom up approach
3. Cross Check with top down approach, (Count the emission CO2 from vehicle, compare to CO2 emission from National Fuel Sell)
Type of Data Regarding CalculationNo Type of Data Source Time
1. Road Length National Statistic Agency, Ministry of Public Work
1987-2008
2. Number of Vehicle National Statistic Agency
1987-2008
3. Local Emission Factor 2001
4. Population National Statistic Agency
2009
5. GDP National Statistic Agency
2008
7. Fuel Sales Handbook of Energy and economic statistic of Indonesia
2009
Achievement DGLT
ITS support Public Transport
Feeder (Peremajaan)
NMT
National and Local action plan for mitigation action8 Million GT CO2e
BaU :- Uncertanties- Available data, Quality of data- Improved of data
Capacity Building (especialy on local government level) Coordination among Stakeholder (regarding on data and
policies) Law Enforcement to implementation the policies Make a document for Proposed the 41% emission
reduction by foreign funding.
Conclusion
SALAMAT
Climate Change Progress Initiative from Indonesian President in G20 meeting in Pittsburgh,
USA and Conference of Parties (COP) 15 in Copenhagen December2009, that Indonesia will decrease emission GHG 26% from businessas usual and decrease 41% if supported by foreign funding, at 2020.
The target 26% will be reached from three sector i.e. Forestry, Waste, and Energy (mining, refinery, industry, transportation, household)
2011
Presidential Decree No.61 - National Action Plan in GHG emission reduction
Presidential Decree No.71 – Implementation of National GHG Inventory
2012
• Guideline of local action plan in GHG Emission reduction
Sustainable
Urban
Transportation
Improvement
Project
Pengenalan1. BaU (Baseline)
BAU Calculation (has to be translated)
1. Input data: Populasi Kendaraan, Populasi Penduduk, Pertumbuhan InfrastrukturJalan, Pertumbuhan GDP, Persentase Penduduk Perkotaan-Perdesaan, Total Konsumsi Bahan Bakar (bensin dan solar), Total Emisi CO2
2. Proyeksi: GDP/Kapita, Panjang Infrastruktur Jalan, Jumlah Kendaraan (Mobil, Motor, Bus, Truk), Jumlah Kendaraan Perkotaan, Jumlah Penduduk
3. Analisa Regresi: Kepemilikan Kendaraan vs. Pertumbuhan Infr. Jalan, KepemilikanKendaraan vs. GDP/kapita.
4. Proyeksi Regresi: Populasi Penduduk (Urban dan Non-urban), Panjang Jalan (Urban-Non Urban), Populasi Kendaraan
5. Perhitungan: Perjalanan Kendaraan- tahun, Konsumsi Bahan Bakar Kendaraan-tahun , Validasi Konsumsi bahan bakar, Total Emisi CO2 Kendaraan-tahun, validasi Emisi CO2.
6. Distribusi: Emisi CO2 Kendaraan berdasarkan moda (mobil, motor, truk, bis) danstruktur kota (metropolitan, kota besar, kota sedang, total nasional)
Business As Usual Approach
Restrain Infrastructure
No action with
• Normal GDP growth
• Normal Population Growth
• Vehicle growth depends on restrain infrastructure growth
Normal
No action with:
• Normal GDP growth
• Normal Population Growth
•Normal Vehicle Population Growth
• Normal Infrastructure Growth
Sustainable
Urban
Transportation
Improvement
Project
Pengenalan1. BaU Baseline
Bensin
Tahun ESDM(kl) Estimasi- (kl) Deviasi (%)
2007 16.962.198 16.775.200 -1%
2008 18.653.344 18.880.214 1%
Diesel
Tahun ESDM(kl) Estimasi- (kl) Deviasi (%)
2007 8.511.215 8.145.660 -4%
2008 8.911.926 9.655.473 8%
Cross check with ESDM (Selling fuel consumption in transport sector)
Sustainable
Urban
Transportation
Improvement
Project
Pengenalan
Assumption
CO2 Emission related to the fuel consumption
1. Gasoline: Emisi CO2 - 2,33 kg/liter (SITNP, 1995)2. Solar: Emisi CO2 - 2,62 kg/liter (SITNP, 1995)
1. BaU Baseline
YearCO2 Emission (Million Ton)
Car Bus Motor Truck Total
2020 34.79 34.39 33.01 8.64 110.83
2030 57.55 61.59 44.04 11.58 174.77
Sustainable
Urban
Transportation
Improvement
Project
Pengenalan
Asumsi: Data Cipta Karya:Penduduk Kota tahun 2008 telah melewati jumlah penduduk desa (> 50%)Jumlah penduduk kota metropolitan: 55% total penduduk perkotaanJumlah penduduk kota besar: 19% total penduduk perkotaanJumlah penduduk kota sedang: 25% total penduduk perkotaan.
1. BaU Baseline
Year
CO2 Emission by Area (Million Ton)
Metro Large Medium Rest of Nat
2020 31.70 10.95 14.41 53.77
2030 49.98 17.27 22.72 84.80
Sustainable
Urban
Transportation
Improvement
Project
Pengenalan1. BaU Baseline
-
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
CO
2 Em
issi
on (M
illio
n To
n)
Year
BaU CO2 Emission
BaU Rest. Infr. BaU
Cross check with Estimation CO2 Emission in 2007 (data from Bappenas, 67 mt CO2)
Teknis Kerangka Kerja Pengumpulan Data Nasional dan Daerah Proyeksi yang relevan (Proyeksi infrastruktur; data makro
(populasi, GDP, dll);proyeksi tingkat kepemilikan kendaraanbermotor;proyeksi aktivitas kendaraan berdasarkan tipe kendaraan;proyeksi penggunaan transportasi massal dan moda lain.
Pengembangan asumsi berdasarkan konsensus Calculation tools (alat perhitungan)
Non teknis Proses kordinasi yang kuat (vertikal & horizontal) Identifikasi pengorganisasian lokal dan nasional (kualifikasi
institusi, finansial, administratif, dll) Training of Trainers (penyamaan persepsi, khususnya metode BaU
dan kriteria pemilihan aksi mitigasi, pendampingan untuk daerah, dll)
Usulan Langkah Selanjutnya
Back ground of International Climate Change Issue
G20 - Sept 2009 Pittsburg
Pernyataan PresidenTarget Penurunan GRK: 26% APBN 41 % plus PHLN
Dana untuk Adaptasi danMitigasi: USD 30 Milyar 2012 USD 100 Milyar 2020 Transfer technology REDD +
Copenhagen Accord 2009
Unilateral
NAMA
Supported
Credited
Indonesia Voluntary Mitigation Actions30 January 2010
Shifting to Low-Emission Transportation Mode
Transport Sector
Indonesian Approach
Evolution of “Climate Change” issues
March 2010 On progress On progress
Kesimpulan kondisi MRV saat ini (transportasidarat)
Page 26
Strategy Avoid/Shift Improve
Local
measures
Requires bespoke studies,
but substantial levels of
data already available.
Challenges exist in
incorporating impacts into
assessment at the national
scale.
Can rely on a top-down
approach. Some NAMAs can
be MRVd where localised data
is available.
National
measures
Requires substantial
collection of new data to
characterise vehicle activity
by mode.
Can rely on a top-down
approach. Some NAMAs can
be MRVd with currently
available data.
Usulan Langkah Selanjutnya
Data / Slide Pendukung
Passanger Cars Buses TrucksMotor CyclesPopulation
Urban Non Urban
Car/Capita in Urban
Car/Capita in Non Urban
Truck/Capita in Urban
Motorcycle/Capita in Urban
Buses/Capita in Urban
Buses/Capita in Non Urban
Motorcycle/Capita in Non Urban
Truck/Capita in Non Urban
Regression Model Cars/Capita in Urban vs Urban Road Length
Regression Model Trucks/Capita in Urban vs Urban Road Length
Regression Model Motorcycles/Capita in Urban vs Urban Road
Length
Regression Model Buses/Capita in Urban vs Urban Road Length
Population Projection
Car Projection in Urban
Truck Projection in Non Urban
Truck Projection in Urban
Bus Projection in Urban
Car Projection in Non Urban
Bus Projection in Non Urban
Motorcycle Projection in Non
Urban
Motorcycle Projection in Urban
Road Length
Non Urban Road Length
Urban Road Length
Road Growth
Urban Road Length
Projection
Non Urban Road Length
Projection
Business as Usual (BaU) Infrastructure Constrain
Car Projection Bus Projection Truck Projection
Motorcycle Projection
Annual Car km Travelled
Annual Motorcycle km
Travelled
Annual Truck km Travelled
Annual Bus km Travelled
Annual Car Gasoline
Consumption
Annual Bus Diesel
Consumption
Annual Truck Diesel
Consumption
Annual Motorcycle Gasoline
Consumption
Car CO2 Emission
Motorcycle CO2 Emission
Truck CO2 Emission
Bus CO2 Emission
FUEL
CONSMP
CO2
EMISSION
ANNUAL
VEHICLE
CO2 Emission in Metro Cities
TOTAL CO2 EMISSION
CO2 Emission in Large Cities
CO2 Emission in
Medium Cities
CO2 Emission in
Rest of Nation
Assumption :Avarage trip length, Vehicle usage, Daily operation/years, Avarege shift
operation, Avarage daily trips
Assumption :Vehicle Consumption
Assumption :CO2 Emission by Fuel
Type
Assumption :Percentage of Population
by City types
Fuel Sales Data from ESDM
Cross Check
Input Data Calculation ResultComputed output for further calculation
Integrated Modeling
Analysis of Indonesian Policies and Transport
System
Data Base Development• Vehicle number (type), age• Vehicle fuel consumption, annual km-driven
• Growth of population, GDP, etc• Modal Split• OD trends• etc
CO2 Emission reduction scenarios:
• Avoid• Shift• Improve
Strategy & Policy Recommendations
• Package of Sustainable urban transport policies
• Package of Freight Improvement Program
• etc
Development of BAU Scenario
• BAU normal• BAU restraint infrastructure
Integrated Modeling
IntegrasiModel (Tools)
Analisis Kebijakan dan SistemTransportasi di Indonesia
Pengembangan Data Base• Jumlah kendaraan (tipe, umur, dll)• Komsumsi bahan bakar dan jarak
tempuh kendaraan (per jeniskendaraan)
• Pertumbuhan populasi, GDP, dll• Modal Split
• Trend Asal-Tujuan• dll
Skenario PenguranganEmisi CO2
• Avoid (Hindari)• Shift (Beralih)• Improve (Tingkatkan)
Rekomendasi Strategidan Kebijakan
• Paket Kebijakan TransportasiPerkotaan yang Berkelanjutan
• Paket Kehijakan TransportasiUdara
• Dll
Pengembangan SkenarioBaU (Bottom-up and Top-
down)• BAU normal• BAU keterbatasan infrastrukutur
PengembanganMRV
• Pengukuran• Pelaporan• Verifikasi
Kerangka Pengembangan Aksi Mitigasi
CHALLENGES
Funding Capacity Building Coordination among
Stakeholder Local Government
Involvement Law Enforcement