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Oscillation SummaryNatural climate oscillations effect regional, hemispheric, and global weather and climate.
Climate oscillation patterns are detectable in palaeoclimate proxies,
And are thus not anthropogenic.
The causes of climate oscillations are poorly understood; most have been defined only in the last 20 to 80 years.
Climate oscillations are inter-related, e.g. ENSO and PDO.
When in phase (e.g. warm phases of ENSO, PDO, AMO), global warming effect ~= warming of last century (0.6 OC).
We are entering a cool PDO phase.
PDO and AMO can explain much of recent Arctic sea ice melting and Alaskan glacier retreat.
Super El Ninos occurred before industrialization, thus are not anthropogenic.
Global Mean Radiative Forcings in 2005Adapted from IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4, page 32
0-2 +2+1-1
Wm-2
Climate Oscillations are not Radiative Forcing (at
least not directly) and thus do not show up on this IPCC balance sheet.
Oscillations AGW
Urban Heat Island Effect
Graph from http://wattsupwiththat.com
“The current state of the science is that the effect [of the Urban Heat Island] on the global temperature
record is small to negligible.” Real Climate
“This paper bends over backwards to argue for the retention of general
warming…., despite finding evidence that landscape change (in this case,
urbanization) alters long term trends.’’ Roger Pielke, Sr.
Urban Heat Island Effect in 49 California Counties
Urban Heat Island Effect in 49 California Counties
“Land-use change and landscape dynamics: influence on climate” Klein Goldwijk, 2001
1700Cropland
Grazing
Tropical Forest
Savannah
Grassland & Steppe
Open Shrubland
Temperate Deciduous Forest
Temperate Evergreen Forest
Hot Desert
Cropland
Grazing
Tropical Forest
Savannah
Grassland & Steppe
Open Shrubland
Temperate Deciduous Forest
Temperate Evergreen Forest
Hot Desert
1900
“Land-use change and landscape dynamics: influence on climate” Klein Goldwijk, 2001
Cropland
Grazing
Tropical Forest
Savannah
Grassland & Steppe
Open Shrubland
Temperate Deciduous Forest
Temperate Evergreen Forest
Hot Desert
1970
“Land-use change and landscape dynamics: influence on climate” Klein Goldwijk, 2001
Cropland
Grazing
Tropical Forest
Savannah
Grassland & Steppe
Open Shrubland
Temperate Deciduous Forest
Temperate Evergreen Forest
Hot Desert
1990
“Land-use change and landscape dynamics: influence on climate” Klein Goldwijk, 2001
Snows of Kilimanjaro
Land Use Summary
It is likely that UHI imparts a warming bias to land-based temperature readings.
Land management and land cover change are first order anthropogenic climate forcings.
Land use changes are under valued by the IPCC (Pielke, Sr.),
and thus the impact of GHG is over valued for the observed warming of the last century.
Global Mean Radiative Forcings in 2005Adapted from IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4, page 32
Land Use Black Carbon on Snow
Surface Albedo
Direct Aerosol
Cloud Albedo
Linear Contrails
0-2 +2+1-1
Wm-2
No volcanic aerosol effect is included
The IPCC does not credit UHI heating
The Case for CAGWThe Case for CAGW
“Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence,” Carl Sagan
Evidence that Carbon Global Warming
Evidence that Carbon Global Warming
1. Temperature follows CO2 levels in past.
2. Atmosphere shows characteristic heating pattern of adding GHG
CO2, CH4
Not evidence of CAGW:Not evidence of CAGW:
Arctic ice disappearingAntarctic ice shelf breaks looseGlaciers retreatingCoral reef bleachingMt. Kilimanjaro losing snowPolar bear population changingA change in cyclones /hurricanes/typhoonsDroughtsDry rivers
Palaeoclimate Records
Well Mixed Green House GasesWell Mixed Green House Gases
Records of changes in atmospheric composition over the past 1000 years. Ice core and firn data for several sites in Antarctica and Greenland are supplemented with the data from direct atmospheric samples over the past few decades.
“A Report of Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”, United Nations, 2000
Correlatio
n is
not causatio
n.
“1998 was the warmest year of the millennium.”
Michael Mann et al, 1998
Little Ice
Age?
Medieval Warm
Period?
Wall Street Journal, Feb. 14, 2005Wall Street Journal, Feb. 14, 2005
Mr. McIntyre thinks there are more errors [in the Mann hockeystick] but says his audit is limited because he still doesn't know the exact computer code Dr. Mann used to generate the graph. Dr. Mann refuses to release it.
"Giving them the algorithm would be giving in to the intimidation tactics that these people are engaged in," he says.
Dr. Mann says his busy schedule didn't permit him to respond to "every frivolous note" from nonscientists…
Stephen McIntyre
Michael Mann
Hearing of the Investigations Subcommittee of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, July, 2005
Michael Mann
Stephen McIntyre
It took an act of Congress to get the data released!
It took an act of Congress to get the data released!
Bristlecone pine: Senior Citizens ~5,000 years old!
www.flickr.com/photos/
Width and density of annual rings changes in temperature. Briffa, et al, 2008
Graybill, 1983 Holzmann in 2007
Mann Hockystick Depended on Graybill Bristlecone Pine Chronologies
Mann Hockystick Depended on Graybill Bristlecone Pine Chronologies
Figure 14. Left and middle – two cross sections of Colorado bristlecones from Brunstein (2006); right – strip bark juniper from Karakorum, Pakistan used in Jan Esper chronology.
Asymmetry prevent Accurate CoringAsymmetry prevent Accurate Coring
The CENSORED File of PalaeoClimate Proxies
“We discovered that an undocumented directory at Mann’s FTP site entitled “CENSORED” contained calculations without bristlecones.
Without the bristlecones, none of the PC series had a hockey stick shape.” James McIntyre, Climate AuditTemperature proxies from coral, ice
cores, and historical records
Polar Urals tree line, advancing modern tree line inbackground, medieval tree line in foreground (Jan Esper)
Other Studies Argued to Support Mann et al. Hockey Stick
Other Studies Argued to Support Mann et al. Hockey Stick
IPCC 4TAR, Chapter 6, p467
MBH1999
JBB1998
DWJ2006
Instrumental (HadCRUT2v)
MJ2003
ECS2002
HCA2005
BOS..2001
AMO..2005
O2006
B2000
MSH..2005
PS2004
Palaeoclimate Hockey Sticks
All studies used same inappropriate
tree ring proxies
Yamal
Polar Urals
Taymir
Aram
Yamal River, Northern Russia
It took 3 years and FIO to access archived data.
Briffa 12 Yamal live tree cores
CRU Archive substituting 34 Polar Ural recent live tree cores for Yamal cores
S. McIntyre 27Sep09
MWP
“YAD06 is the most influential
tree in the world. YAD06
does not always drink
beer, but when it does, it
drinks Dos Equis. Stay thirsty, my friends.”
The Yamal Ten
Steve McIntyre 30Sep09
Keith Briffa
Professor at the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, U.K.
His specialism is dendroclimatology.
A lead author of The Physical Science Basis, Chapter 6, Palaeoclimate, 2007 IPCC 4TAR
Palaeoclimate Proxies (without Tree Ring Data) Temp. History
Proxy SummaryIPCC Hockey stick temperature curves are the result of Mannian manipulation, including the selective use of data.
Bristlecone pine and other strip bark tree ring proxies are suspect thermometers.
Few non-tree ring proxies produce a temperature hockey stick.
A large body of evidence supports a Roman warm period, MWP, and Little Ice Age.
Today’s temperatures are well within the 15 +/- 1 OC variation of this interglacial.
I’ve given up entirely on tree rings and am now focusing my efforts on petrified naked people. Find yourself a wad of those in some bog and you’ve got yourself a
bonafied “warm period”.
Palaeoclimate Instrument Temperatures
Measuring Temperature
Land Thermometers in Weather Stations
Sea: Argo Floats Photograph © 2004 Sabrina Speich,
NOAA Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit
Radiosonde a.k.a. Weather Balloons
Sea: EBTs (expendable
bathythermographs
Measuring Temperature in the Upper Atmosphere
~10% influence by surface temperature
(GISS)
“Instrument Record”, a.k.a. thermometers
Record Low volcanic aerosols
Measuring Land Temperature
Proposed Typical USCRN Station
USCRN Instrument Suite Oklahoma Agricultural Experiment Station,Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK
Well Situated CRN Site
“Stevenson Screen” NWS office Monterey, CA
NWS Location Specs.5 +/- 1 feet above ground
Location typical of area
Level open clearing
Located >4X height away from structures (trees, buildings, fences)
100 feet away from paved surface
WUWT, 27June07
Lampasas, TX, February 10, 2008
Buffalo Bill Dam, Cody WY
Detroit Lakes, WS
Roseburg, OR
Roseburg, OR
wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/category/weather_stations/
Fillmore, UT USHCN Climate Station of Record,
Surfacestations Project Audit of USHCN Network, 1003 of 1221 surveyed (82%)
OC
GHCN 1885
GHCN 1905
GHCN 1925
GHCN 1945
GHCN 1965
GHCN 1985
GHCN 2005
GHCN 2006
NOAA declares 2006 to be 5th warmest
Warm Bias in Surface Temp. Record
Surface minus Satellite Temperature = 0.20 OC/decade over land
Land = 29% Global Surface
IPCC Global projection of 0.20 OC/decade minus land bias 0.14OC/decade corrected
Argo Floats
Argo Float Descending
The Argo Network
Increasing Ocean Heat Content
Recent Cooling of the Ocean
Argo Float Data
Craig Loehle, Energy & Environment · Vol. 20, No. 1&2, 2009
1022
Jo
ule
s
The Oceans Cool while Atmospheric CO2 Rises
Dr. Roy Spencer August 27th, 2009
TRMM Microwave Imager40N-40S oceans
El Nino
Buoy & Ship-based Data
“Warmest August on Record!”18.64 OCEl Nino
Satellite Data
0.08 OC Cooler than Buoy Data18.56 OCEl Nino
Hadley Centre on Climate Change
El Nino
“This is much ado about nothing. The multiyear and multi-decadal changes in
Global SST anomalies appear to reflect the ocean’s ability to integrate ENSO.” Bob Tisdale
SST, OC
Temperature Record Summary
Ground-based measurements have a warm bias:
UHI Effect,
Urban bias over rural,
Poor site condition,
Night warm bias.
Ocean Heat Content:
Rose in last half of the last century,
Has declined since 2003 despite increasing atmospheric CO2.
Temperature Record Summary
SST measurements conflicting trends:
Buoy data warming,
Satellite data flat to slight cooling.
Top-of-Atmosphere flux:
ERBE: Hotter sea more heat radiated into space.
Models: Hotter sea more heat retained by atmosphere.
IPCC projections overstate warming.
CO2 Concentration 15July09
How much does CO2 heat the atmosphere?
"Human-made climate forcings, mainly greenhouse gases, heat the earth’s surface at a rate of about two watts per square meter—the equivalent of two tiny one-watt bulbs
burning over every square meter of the planet" James Hanson, GISS
2 Wm-2 ~ +0.53 OC
0.5OC
0.22OC with 40% cloud cover
Requires humanity to completely take over all natural effects that were operating before the Industrial Revolution
0.5OC
0.22OC with 40% cloud cover
Requires humanity to completely take over all natural effects that were operating before the Industrial Revolution
Beer’s Law: Transmission of
radiation is a logarithmic function of
concentration.
Delta T = alpha log (C/C0)
Svante Arrhenius, 1896
Logarithmic Response to GHG Concentration
Existing and Potential Anthropogenic CO2 Greenhouse Effect
Pre-Industrial CO2 Greenhouse Effect
Graph by Bill Illis modified by Anthony Watts 25Oct09
Graph by Bill Illis modified by Anthony Watts 25Oct09
Miskolczi O OC Saturated Greenhouse (more CO2 less H2O)
Idso O.37 OC
Spencer O.46 OC
Lindzen O.5 OC Clear sky (0.22 OC with 40% cloud cover)
Schwartz, 1.1 OC
Chylek 1.4 OC
IPCC 3.0 OC H2O amplification
Climate Sensitivity (2 X CO2)
Without change in water vapor.
CO2 minus aerosols (no sun effect)
El Niño Invalidates H2O Multiplier Effect
Forecast Temperature Trend from CO2 - IPCC 4AR
Linear Trend, OC/Decade
Atmospheric Pressure, mb
Altitude, km
1000
25
50
100
200
300
500
700
25
4
8
12
16
20
24
Eq90N 90S60S30S30N60N
Linear Trend, OC
Atmospheric Pressure, mb
Altitude, km
Actual Temperature Trend HadAT2 Radiosonde Data 1979 - 1999
NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
Model Projections vs. Actual
No Accelerated WarmingRSS MSU Satellites
1979 to present
The vertical axis is the global average temperature anomaly in degrees Celsius in the lower troposphere
UAH Satellite
UAH Satellite
Land
2X CO2 = +1.2 OC
IPCC Hypothesis 2X CO2 = +3
to +6 OC
Present GHG
= +33 OC
Moderation Hypothesis
2X CO2 = +0.4 OC
Qualitative illustration of green house warming.
Vostok, Antarctica, Ice Core Record
CO2 Rise FOLLOWS Temperature Rise by ~800 years (IPCC 4TAR, p444)
Atmospheric Temperature and Carbon Dioxide: Feedback or Equilibrium? R. Taylor, Aug09
Temperature Independent of CO2
Vostok Ice Core Record
Range = 4.45 ppmv
Northern Hemisphere
+0.28 OC/decade
Southern Hemisphere
+0.07 OC/decade
Tropics +0.07
OC/decade
CO
2 <
4% V
aria
tio
nWhat’s Warming the NH?
CO2 Warming SummaryHanson’s 2Wm-2 anthropogenic warming is indistinct from natural variability.
GH effect is logarithmic: 2X CO2 + 40 % clouds 0.22 OC.
Earth annually adjusts to 4 OC temp. swings.
Earth adjusts to El Nino heating.
No predicted GHG tropical troposphere hot spot.
Model presumption of constant RH is incorrect.
RH (and SH at 400 mb) are declining.
H2O amplification of CO2 warming is not seen.
CO2 Warming SummaryGlobal temp. has not risen in last 10 years,
despite increasing CO2.
No accelerated warming 1979 to present.
CO2 follows temperature:
Lags temp. drop by thousands of years,
Lags temp rise by ~800 years.
Temperature change is essentially independent of CO2.
Global Mean Radiative Forcings in 2005
CO2
Adapted from IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4, page 32
CH4, N2O, Halocarbons
Tropospheric Stratospheric
Land Use Black Carbon on Snow
Long-lived greenhouse gases
Ozone
Stratospheric water vapor from CH4
Surface Albedo
Direct Aerosol
Cloud Albedo
Linear Contrails
Solar Irradiance
Total net anthropogenic
0-2 +2+1-1
Wm-2
No volcanic aerosol effect is included
No adjustment is made for reduced tropospheric
moisture
The IPCC does not credit UHI heating
CAGW CO2 Fertilization
CO2 Fertilization Craig Idso, 2008
Bigtooth Aspen Growth
(e.g. Wheat)
(e.g. Maize)
Atmospheric CO2 (ppm above ambient)
Pe
rce
nt
Gro
wth
En
han
cem
en
t
Resource Limited and Stressed
Not Resource Limited or Stressed
1600400 800 1200
250
50
100
150
200Higher concentrations of CO2 allow the plant to reduce the
stomata openings and reduce water losses.
CO2 Fertilization Conclusions
CAGW ConclusionsThe Earth has been warming since the last interglacial ~18k years ago.
There is no evidence of an accelerated warming.
There is evidence of an ~10 year cooling period.
The Medieval Warm Period and other recent periods were warmer than present
Sea levels have risen 120 m since the last ice age and are 4 to 6 m below the last interglacial peak.
Current sea level rise rate is minor.
CAGW ConclusionsClouds, some possibly induced by GCR, have a much larger impact than AGHG
The sun influences GCR.
Aerosols have a net cooling effect, but less than previously thought.
There is no evidence of significant AGHG warming.
There is evidence of AGW from land use change and black carbon.
The Biosphere benefits from higher CO2.
Evidence that Carbon Global Warming
Evidence that Carbon Global Warming
1. Temperature follows CO2 levels in past.
2. Atmosphere shows characteristic heating pattern of adding GHG
CO2, CH4