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Trade-off in Pavement Management
Trade-off Considerations within the context of Pavement Management
Charles Pilson, PhD, P.E.
Senior Principal Consultant
AgileAssets Inc.
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Background
• We’ve all seen the standard graph –preservation at top, reconstruction at the bottom
- Gary Hicks I believe
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Condition Distribution
• Pavements are often in a range of conditions
• Some in relatively good condition; some not so much…
- Gary Hicks I believe
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Mix of Fixes
• Need to take care of poor conditions
• But as importantly, we KNOW we still need to keep up with preservation
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How do we justify this?
• Need to model (and take out of the realm of intuition…)
• Not just immediate jump – but long term prediction
Deterioration
Time
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How do we justify this?
• Need to model (and take out of the realm of intuition…)
• Not just immediate jump – but long term prediction
Deterioration
Time
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Tradeoff on year by year basis
• Treatment by year using benefit (area) is good
Deterioration
Time
Analyze at time t Benefit
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Strategy Tradeoff
• But trading off between whole life strategies is better
• How much better?– Want to show some results from a study we did…
Deterioration
Time
Rejuvenate
Crack fill/Seal
Reconstr.
Rehab
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Strategy TradeoffStrategy Analysis Savings vs Treatment Analysis model
when keeping network in the same condition
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Strategy TradeoffStrategy Analysis better identifies and uses preventive treatments vs
Treatment Analysis
Treatment Analysis
Strategy Analysis
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Strategy Tradeoff
$.0
$1.0
$2.0
$3.0
$4.0
$5.0
$6.0
Rehab Reactive Proactive Total
Bu
dge
t R
eq
uir
em
en
ts,
Bill
ion
sSpending distribution across budget groups
Strategy Analysis
Treatment Analysis
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Cost profile Tradeoff
• Another type of Tradeoff– Imagine we could be flexible about cost/budget strategy?
– Remember ‘Good Roads cost less’!
– Classic ‘backlog’
– So how much better could we do with this flexibility?
Budget
Time
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Cost profile Tradeoff
• ‘Even’ or continuous budget– $623m
(deviation <20%)
• Optimal Budget– $520m
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Long term…
• Based on our running of the numbers here, you can see the budgets leveling off when you get into the preservation treatments.
– Obviously not all roads are ‘perpetual’ and under-designed roads or roads with unforeseen loads go down hill regardless because of structural issues, but…
– If the structure and construction are good, you can keep a lot of roads going a long time if you take care of them up front!
– Preservation treatments should really be part of Pavement Management
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Thank You !
Charles Pilson, PhD, P.E.Senior Principal Consultant
AgileAssets Inc.
Office: +1 (919) 573-5217
Cell: +1 (919) 523-2588
e-mail: [email protected]
Web: www.agileassets.com