www.nsr.com © 2013 – NSR
GVF Oil & Gas Communications,
Europe - 2013
Trending Now! Global Broadband SATCOMs & Europe’s Oil & Gas Patch Future Evolution Oil & Gas Communications Europe 2013
Brad Grady
Analyst – NSR Washington DC
www.nsr.com © 2013 – NSR
GVF Oil & Gas Communications, Europe - 2013
GVF Oil & Gas Communications, Europe - 2013
Agenda
One of the contact card
designs from the previous
slide
1 NSR and Energy Markets via Satellite, 3rd Edition
2 The State of Energy Markets
Key Findings from Energy Markets via Satellite, 3rd Edition
Oil & Gas Regional Overview
Europe, Atlantic and the Arctic Oil & Gas Trends
3 Exploration & Production Market
Market Trends
E&P – Total Retail Revenues & In-service Units
E&P – Bandwidth Demand & the Bottom Line
4 Distribution Market
Market Trends
DIST – Total Retail Revenues & In-service Units
5 The HTS Era?
HTS- What is the Latest?
MSS Market Capacity Shift
HTS and Oil & Gas Markets
6 Bottom Line
Brad Grady
Analyst
NSR Washington DC
2
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New Initiatives 2013:
London, UK Office
MSS Report Breakdown for
Aeronautical, Maritime, and Land-
mobile Markets
HTS-MEO Segmentation
New “Look and Feel” of all Report and
Marketing Documents
Expanded Coverage and
Research/Consulting Offerings
GVF Oil & Gas Communications, Europe - 2013
NSR and Energy Markets via Satellite, 3rd Edition
About NSR (Northern Sky Research, LLC)
NSR is a Global Leader in Satellite Market Research and Consulting, founded
in 2000:
Extensive Client Research, Consulting and Advisory Services
Produce Multi-Client Reports on Various Satellite Topics
Coined the term “HTS” – High Throughput Satellites.
NSR’s expert consultants are located globally and possess over 110 years of
combined industry experience.
3
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New this Edition:
Study of Mining & Utility
Verticals
Arctic Analysis for O&G
Market
Study of O3b (MEO-HTS)
NSR and Energy Markets via Satellite, 3rd Edition
Energy Markets via Satellite, 3rd Edition
GVF Oil & Gas Communications, Europe - 2013
Addressable
Vertical Markets (2012)
Oil & Gas* * Incl. Arctic
•EP (Onshore, Offshore)
•DIST (Onshore, Offshore)
Mining
•Onshore
Utilities
•Generation
•Transmission
In-service Units (2012 - 2022)
MSS
•by Vertical
•by Region
FSS
•by Vertical
•by Region
•by C-/Ku-bands
HTS
•by Vertical
•by Region
O3b
•by Vertical
•by Region
Revenues
(2012 - 2022)
ARPU
•by Vertical
•by Region
•by MSS, FSS, HTS, O3b
Services
•by Vertical
•by Region
•by MSS, FSS, HTS, O3b
Equipment
•by Vertical
•by Region
•by MSS, FSS, HTS, O3b
Bandwidth
•by Vertical
•by Region
•by FSS, HTS, O3b
Bandwidth Demand (2012 - 2012)
FSS
•by Vertical
•by Region
HTS
•by Vertical
•by Region
O3b
•by Vertical
•by Region
4
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The State of Energy Markets
In Europe and Around the World – O&G, Mining, and Utilities
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GVF Oil & Gas Communications, Europe - 2013
The Global Energy Markets – EMvS3 Key Findings
The State of Energy Markets
Source: NSR
Key Findings
Energy Markets will continue to be driven
by the Oil & Gas sector, where it will
account for 39% of total In-Service
Units, 69% of Retail Revenues, and 88%
of Bandwidth demand (excl. MSS,
measured in Mbps) over the next ten
years.
EP Offshore will lead the Oil & Gas
revenue growth.
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
In-s
erv
ice
Un
its
Energy Markets In-service Units, by Segment
EMvS3 EP EMvS3 DIST EMvS3 MINE EMvS3 GEN EMvS3 TRANS
Source : NSR
6
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Bottom Line
Strong demand for Oil & Gas Continues to
drive connectivity demand, requirements,
and revenues in the Energy Markets, with
cumulative ten-year retail revenues of
over $17B.
Over 460,000 In-service Units by 2022 for
O&G, Mining, and Utilities.
Total bandwidth demand over 25 Gbps
for Energy Market by 2022, divided
amongst FSS, HTS (GEO-HTS) and O3b
(MEO-HTS).
GVF Oil & Gas Communications, Europe - 2013
7
The Global Energy Markets – EMvS3 Key Findings, Cont.
The State of Energy Markets
Paste file path reminder
from the Excel file
Source: NSR Source: NSR
O&G 88%
Mining 10%
Utilities 2%
Energy Markets Bandwidth (Mbps) Comparisons
Source : NSR
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GVF Oil & Gas Communications, Europe - 2013
Oil & Gas Regional Overview
The State of Energy Markets
2013 – Steady growth for offshore E&P and Onshore DIST… with
better growth prospects than last year
Asia
- Strongest Growth
Segment
- Settling political
tensions
- Increased E&P activity
South America
- Offshore, Deep water, Brazil,
and Venezuela strong
- C-band Remains Strong,
even with GEO-HTS and
MEO-HTS Options
North America
- Onshore boom boosting
growth
- Renewed focus on Gulf of
Mexico
- Terrestrial a strong threat to
onshore
Middle East & Africa
- Regional instability
Continues
- A rising Offshore Market
Europe
- North Sea… still.
- More Pipelines to
Russia/China/Asia Markets
- An Onshore Boom?
8
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EU 25%
AOR 6%
ARC 0%
Rest of World 69%
Energy Markets O&G In-service Units, 2012 - 2022
Source : NSR
GVF Oil & Gas Communications, Europe - 2013
Europe, Atlantic, and Arctic Oil & Gas Trends
The State of Energy Markets
Paste file path reminder
from the Excel file
Source: NSR Source: NSR
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
In-s
erv
ice
Un
its
Energy Markets O&G In-service Units, by Region
EU AOR ARC Source : NSR
Regional Breakdown:
North America – 31%
Europe – 25%
Asia – 14%
Middle East, Africa – 10%
Latin America – 7%
Atlantic – 6%
Pacific – 5%
Indian – 3%
Arctic - <0.5%
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Exploration & Production Trends
Units, Revenues, and Bandwidth
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Offshore Rigs/Wells
• High Reliability a must
• Multiple communications links present
• Relatively infrequent movement
Offshore Support Vessels
• Varied communications demand
• Highly mobile
• Limited deck real estate
Onshore Rigs/Wells
• Likely access to terrestrial services
• Rigs move frequently
• Most located in U.S., but expanding elsewhere
GVF Oil & Gas Communications, Europe - 2013
Exploration & Production (E&P) Market Exploration and Production Trends
Onshore 91%
Offshore 9%
O&G Addressable Market: E&P
Source : NSR
11
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GVF Oil & Gas Communications, Europe - 2013
E&P – Total Retail Revenues & In-service Units
Exploration and Production Trends
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
In-s
erv
ice
Un
its
Energy Markets EP In-service Units, by Band
EP C EP Ku EP HTS (GEO-HTS) EP O3b (MEO-HTS) EP MSS
Source : NSR
EP C 25%
EP Ku 25%
EP HTS (GEO-HTS) 9%
EP O3b (MEO-HTS) 18%
EP MSS 23%
Energy Markets EP Total Retail Revenues, by Band
Source : NSR
12
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GVF Oil & Gas Communications, Europe - 2013
E&P – Bandwidth Demand & the Bottom Line
Exploration and Production Trends
Bottom Line:
C-band deployments and bandwidth needs
will continue to increase… but higher-end
segments will begin to
supplement/replace their bandwidth
needs with both MEO and GEO-HTS
solutions.
Ku-band In-service units will increase by
4,500 In-service units but HTS and
terrestrial options are greater threats.
HTS (GEO-HTS) will add another 8,600 In-
Service Units, and contribute 14% of total
Retail Revenues in 2022.
O3b (MEO-HTS) is restricted to a limited
pool of locations with enough real estate
to support it… but they are also the
heaviest users of bandwidth. 0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Gb
ps T
PE
s (
36
MH
z)
Energy Markets EP Bandwidth Demand, by Band
EP C TPEs EP Ku TPEsEP HTS (GEO-HTS) Gbps EP O3b (MEO-HTS) Gbps
Source : NSR
13
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Distribution Trends
Units, and Revenues
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Pipeline Miles 99%
Tankers 1%
O&G Addressable Market: DIST
Source : NSR
Offshore Tankers
• Cost is key
• Crew Amenities
• Support along major shipping routes
Onshore Pipelines
• Terrestrial connectivity likely
• SCADA required
• Video monitoring emerging
GVF Oil & Gas Communications, Europe - 2013
Distribution (DIST) Market
Distribution Trends
15
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-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
In-s
erv
ice
Un
its
Energy Markets DIST In-service Units, by Band
DIST C DIST Ku DIST HTS (GEO-HTS) DIST O3b (MEO-HTS) DIST MSSSource : NSR
GVF Oil & Gas Communications, Europe - 2013
DIST – Total Retail Revenues & In-service Units
Distribution Market
DIST C 7%
DIST Ku 66%
DIST HTS (GEO-HTS)
2%
DIST O3b (MEO-HTS)
0%
DIST MSS 25%
Energy Markets DIST Total Retail Revenues, by Band
Source : NSR
Bottom Line
Ku-band continues to drive the Distribution
Market (Pipeline SCADA)
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0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2012 2021
% S
har
e
Global HTS Bandwidth Demand by Application
Contribution & OUTV
Distribution
DTH
Gov/Mil
Commercial Mobility
Enterprise Data
Broadband Access
Source : NSR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2012 2021
% S
har
e
Global HTS Bandwidth Revenues by Application
Contribution & OUTV
Distribution
DTH
Gov/Mil
Commercial Mobility
Enterprise Data
Broadband Access
Source : NSR
What’s the Latest?
In pure usage terms, consumer-class broadband access will dominate HTS bandwidth
demand in future … a “high volumes business …”.
But wholesale revenues from HTS tell a different story …
“follow the revenues” to see drivers behind different HTS business plans
The HTS Era?
HTS- What is the Latest?
GVF Oil & Gas Communications, Europe - 2013
17
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Order of Magnitude from MSS to FSS to HTS
L-Band
Ku-Band
C-band HTS
~ 500 Kbps
500 Kbps up
to 10 Mbps
Up to 350
Mbps
MSS Market Capacity Shift
The HTS Era?
GVF Oil & Gas Communications, Europe - 2013
18
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HTS vs. FSS vs. MSS: Regional Coverage
The HTS Era?
Source: Viasat Source: Eutelsat Source: TBS
Source: Inmarsat Source: Intelsat
5 out of 6 HTS mobility value proposition offer regional coverage
Key areas of demand: airlines corridors, cruise ships and shipping lanes,
offshore platforms, government and military
Source: O3B Networks
2015
2012 2012 2014
2013 2014
GVF Oil & Gas Communications, Europe - 2013
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Bottom Line: HTS and O3b will add an additional 16 Gbps of
throughput to Oil & Gas markets by 2022 – driven
by higher provisioning and In-service Unit growth.
Enhanced oil recovery, crew-welfare, and
business applications contribute to higher
bandwidth demands for the Oil & Gas market.
Traditional FSS capacity will still exist to provide
high-redundancy, but hybrid solutions utilizing
least-cost/highest throughput schemes
continue to become the status quo…. Even
with C-band users.
The Lower cost and Higher Throughputs
from HTS and O3b are shaping up to
significantly alter the Bandwidth Paradigm
within the Energy Markets
GVF Oil & Gas Communications, Europe - 2013
HTS and Oil & Gas Markets
The HTS Era?
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Mb
ps
Energy Markets O&G Bandwidth (Mbps)
C Mbps Ku Mbps HTS (GEO-HTS) Mbps O3b (MEO-HTS) Mbps
Source : NSR
20
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The Bottom Line: Europe will remain a key market for the Oil & Gas SATCOM Industry – a market expected to generate
over $11B in cumulative retail revenues from 2012 – 2022.
Exploration and Production Segment will contribute the most to revenue and bandwidth growth – but
FSS faces pressures from HTS, MSS faces pressures from FSS, and everyone faces increasing
threats from terrestrial solutions.
Distribution Segment will continue to be a Ku-band market for SCADA services - tanker market shows
little signs of significant increase in activity going forward.
HTS Bandwidth (both GEO-HTS and MEO-HTS) will contribute 16 Gbps of total Oil & Gas bandwidth
demanded by 2022 , and Hybrid solutions will continue to become more commonplace.
GVF Oil & Gas Communications, Europe - 2013
Bottom Line
The Bottom Line
21
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Questions
Brad Grady Analyst, NSR Washington DC
GVF Oil & Gas Communications, Europe - 2013