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Trends in Higher Education
Presentation by Regent Robert Davidson
January 22, 2016
(BOARD OF REGENTS 01/22/16) Ref. BOR-2, Page 1 of 34
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Demographics
(BOARD OF REGENTS 01/22/16) Ref. BOR-2, Page 2 of 34
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Status • Nevada is diverse • Our higher education is diverse • White majority disappearing • Staff getting more diverse but lagging • Declining percentage of males, especially minority
males • Low quality of Nevada K-12
Demographics
(BOARD OF REGENTS 01/22/16) Ref. BOR-2, Page 3 of 34
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Trends • National focus on under representation of minority
males • Acceptance as well as graduation rates • Eventually all males • Higher Education will take a larger role in K-12
Demographics
(BOARD OF REGENTS 01/22/16) Ref. BOR-2, Page 4 of 34
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Funding
(BOARD OF REGENTS 01/22/16) Ref. BOR-2, Page 5 of 34
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Status • Have increased faster than inflation or household
income for 40 years • Some starting to question value of degree • Many believe there is waste in higher education
Costs
(BOARD OF REGENTS 01/22/16) Ref. BOR-2, Page 6 of 34
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Issues • Administrative staff and costs • Inefficient attempts at IT • Amenities and student services • Losses in athletic programs • Losses in hospitals and medical practices • Lavish facilities
Costs
(BOARD OF REGENTS 01/22/16) Ref. BOR-2, Page 7 of 34
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Trends • Reduction in administrative staff and costs • Better, less expensive, more efficient IT systems • Reduction in athletic losses • Fewer student amenities • Efforts to cut costs in hospitals and medical practices
Costs
(BOARD OF REGENTS 01/22/16) Ref. BOR-2, Page 8 of 34
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Status • State funding as % of costs has declined • Recession accelerated trend • No full recovery after recession • Replaced by tuition and fees driving student loans • Tuition and fees grew very fast
Funding
(BOARD OF REGENTS 01/22/16) Ref. BOR-2, Page 9 of 34
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Status • Student loans grew fast • 43 million with loans • Only 37% making payments • 7 million declared in default
Funding
(BOARD OF REGENTS 01/22/16) Ref. BOR-2, Page 10 of 34
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Status • Research funding has generally increased • Decreased during recession • Federal mandatory spending continues to escalate, 62
cents of every dollar goes to retirees • Research is discretionary spending
Funding
(BOARD OF REGENTS 01/22/16) Ref. BOR-2, Page 11 of 34
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Trends • More pressure on state budgets • Increased borrowing costs (assuming normal rates) • More K-12 expenses • Large Medicaid increases • Increases in pension and employee health care costs
Funding
(BOARD OF REGENTS 01/22/16) Ref. BOR-2, Page 12 of 34
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Trends • State funding will hold or decline • Increasingly based on performance • But there are limited funds and much competition
Funding
(BOARD OF REGENTS 01/22/16) Ref. BOR-2, Page 13 of 34
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Trends • Resistance to higher tuition and fees • State schools will seek out of state students • Students will shop for alternatives
Funding
(BOARD OF REGENTS 01/22/16) Ref. BOR-2, Page 14 of 34
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Trends • Student loans will be essentially 100% Federal • Increased regulation of Higher Ed by Feds • Performance criteria for institutional eligibility • If defaults grow – tighter restrictions – fewer, smaller
loans
Funding
(BOARD OF REGENTS 01/22/16) Ref. BOR-2, Page 15 of 34
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Trends • Federal research budget will be under pressure • Grants harder to obtain • Potential pressure on overhead expenses
Funding
(BOARD OF REGENTS 01/22/16) Ref. BOR-2, Page 16 of 34
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Instruction
(BOARD OF REGENTS 01/22/16) Ref. BOR-2, Page 17 of 34
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Status • Current methods are 600 years old • Lectures, assessment, seat time • Technology has changed the world • GPS, Internet, cell phones
Instruction
(BOARD OF REGENTS 01/22/16) Ref. BOR-2, Page 18 of 34
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Status • Amazon/Walmart • Decline of bookstores, live performances, movie
theaters • In person to print to audio/video to interactive media • Growth of e-learning (distance learning)
Instruction
(BOARD OF REGENTS 01/22/16) Ref. BOR-2, Page 19 of 34
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Status • Removes limits of time and place • Anywhere/Anytime
Instruction
(BOARD OF REGENTS 01/22/16) Ref. BOR-2, Page 20 of 34
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Status • Removes class size limits • From 30-200 to many thousands
Instruction
(BOARD OF REGENTS 01/22/16) Ref. BOR-2, Page 21 of 34
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Status • Changes marginal cost • From thousands of $ to tens of $
Instruction
(BOARD OF REGENTS 01/22/16) Ref. BOR-2, Page 22 of 34
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• Who is big in e-learning?
University Consortia • EDx • MIT, Harvard, Berkeley, Texas, Boston U., CalTech,
Columbia, Cornell • Purdue, Dartmouth, Davidson, Princeton, UC San
Diego, Penn • And many prestigious universities
Instruction
(BOARD OF REGENTS 01/22/16) Ref. BOR-2, Page 23 of 34
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Status • Coursera • Stanford, Vanderbilt, Ohio State, Michigan,
Washington, Chicago • Illinois, Nebraska, Yale, Rice • And many prestigious foreign universities
Instruction
(BOARD OF REGENTS 01/22/16) Ref. BOR-2, Page 24 of 34
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Status • UNLV and UNR are not listed in the top 200 US ranked
universities in online learning • Or listed among the many unranked active in online
learning
Instruction
(BOARD OF REGENTS 01/22/16) Ref. BOR-2, Page 25 of 34
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Status • New Universities • Western Governor’s University • Minerva University
Instruction
(BOARD OF REGENTS 01/22/16) Ref. BOR-2, Page 26 of 34
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Status • Most community colleges • Great Basin
Instruction
(BOARD OF REGENTS 01/22/16) Ref. BOR-2, Page 27 of 34
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Trends • Fewer Colleges/Universities • More technology/fewer facilities • Many fewer lecturing professors • Star lecturers
Instruction
(BOARD OF REGENTS 01/22/16) Ref. BOR-2, Page 28 of 34
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Trends • More competency less seat time • Lecture hall to anywhere • Changes to tuition • Universities/colleges licensing courses to others • Many schools disappear or become distributors of
courses
Instruction
(BOARD OF REGENTS 01/22/16) Ref. BOR-2, Page 29 of 34
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Trends • Community colleges reach into
– Homes – K-12 – Workplace
Instruction
(BOARD OF REGENTS 01/22/16) Ref. BOR-2, Page 30 of 34
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• Competition from others offering online courses • More of our students will want online courses • And if not offered by us then by others
Implications for NSHE
(BOARD OF REGENTS 01/22/16) Ref. BOR-2, Page 31 of 34
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• Focus on accepting and graduating minority males • Continue working with K-12 re college readiness • Reduce administrative staffing and costs • Be smart with IT • Reduce losses in athletics and medical practices
Conclusions
(BOARD OF REGENTS 01/22/16) Ref. BOR-2, Page 32 of 34
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• Be prepared for resistance in all forms of funding • Technology will get better • Instructional model will change more in the coming
decades than it has in 600 years • Investigate Edx and Coursera • Courses will be delivered by very few “star” professors • We need staffing flexibility
Conclusions
(BOARD OF REGENTS 01/22/16) Ref. BOR-2, Page 33 of 34
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Our institutions will adapt and prosper
Final Thought
(BOARD OF REGENTS 01/22/16) Ref. BOR-2, Page 34 of 34