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Tsunami risk in South Asia
Dale Dominey-Howes
Macquarie UniversitySydney, Australia
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Structure of the presentation
Short context
Outline relative global risk
Explore risk in the Asia-Pacific region – frequency-magnitude
Recommendations for the industry
Global Conference on Insurance and Reinsurancefor Natural Catastrophe Risk
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Introduction and context
We now know what tsunami are
They are generated in four separate ways
Tsunami magnitude is a measure of wave height at shore
Tsunami intensity is a measure of wave effect
Tsunami have dramatic effects on human and environmental systems
Remainder of this talk will outline relative global risk before summarising risk in the Asia-Pacific region
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Causes
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Tsunami Magnitude
Tsunami intensity?Global Conference on Insurance and Reinsurance
for Natural Catastrophe Risk
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Magnitude data across the globe
Analysis for specific “Cresta zones”
www.nerc-bas.ac.uk/tsunami-risks/index.html
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Economic and insurance costs
UN estimate of rebuild costs – US$10 – 12.5 bn
As of April 2005, insured losses estimated at US$2.5 – 4 bn
Major insurers / reinsurers reporting relatively low losses
Insurance losses remarkably light – low wealth areas with little(catastrophe) insurance
Little domestic property and business insurance
Affected multiple classes:
Life and healthBuildings, contents and infrastructureBusiness interruption lossTravelMotorMarine etc Global Conference on Insurance and Reinsurance
for Natural Catastrophe Risk
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http://www.nerc-bas.ac.uk/tsunami-risks/index.html
Relative Global Risk – historic distribution
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Large tsunami: = 6:100 years!
Two on-line catalogues:
Russian catalogue from 1628 BC – 2,200 eventsAmerican catalogue from 49 BC – over 2,000 events
Relative Global Risk
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Tsunami risk in the Asia-Pacific region
SAM
HAW
CAM
A-A
K-K
JAP
PHI
INDNGS
NZT
(After Gusiakov, 2005)
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Efficiency of tsunami generation
Region EQK Tsunami TE (%)
South America*
122 102 84
Indonesia* 86 68 79
Philippines 73 55 75
NG – Sol Islands
130 86 64
Central America
112 62 55
Japan 255 123 48
Alaska – Aleutians
108 49 46
Kuril – Kamchatka
150 68 45
NZL – Tonga 162 62 38
Hawai’i* 3 13 433Global Conference on Insurance and Reinsurancefor Natural Catastrophe Risk
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Tsunami Risk in South Asia?
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Indian_Ocean_earthquake
Tsunamigenic zones?
Past tsunami events?
Frequency – magnitude?
Future risk?
IO Warning System andpublic awareness andmitigation techniques
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Recommendations for the insurance / reinsurance industry
Fundamental research on documentary and geological record of tsunami
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Recommendations for the insurance / reinsurance industry
Use of improved records of tsunami to examine frequency-recurrence and magnitude estimates for at risk areas
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Recommendations for the insurance / reinsurance industry
Development and application of tsunami vulnerability assessment frameworks and the development of appropriate building code standards and best practice design
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Recommendations for the insurance / reinsurance industry
Reassessment of insurance asset exposure to tsunami loss and careful pricing of premiums to accurately take account of potential tsunami losses
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Recommendations for the insurance / reinsurance industry
Increased collaboration between relevant stakeholders to improve community education and to promote risk reduction measures
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Acknowledgements
Organisers for invitation to make this presentation
Thanks to Aon Re Australia Ltd for their support in to research in to tsunami
Any questions?
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