UNESCO Science Report (2015) Towards 2030
Global overview
Luc Soete
Maastricht University
Presentation prepared for the Round Table Discussion on Monitoring STI for SDG, United Nations Headquarters, Conference Room 8, 11 March 2016
Outline
• Global overview and reflections based on the UNESCO Science Report published end of last year.
• Most comprehensive report on Science and Innovation indicators at global level with data from 108 countries, thanks to collaboration between UNESCO Statistical Institute, OECD and Eurostat.
• It is good though that UNESCO is back in the business of indicators. Will be essential in view of the new Sustainable Development Goals and their monitoring.
• Fascinating to see how countries are all pursuing S&I growth strategies: each though from the perspective of their own national science and innovation system.
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1. Convergence – Divergence: the data
• The share of low and middle-income economies in global expenditure on R&D rose from 20.3% to 30.7% over the same period.
• Since 2007, the share of low and middle-income economies among world researchers has increased by 5 percentage points to 35.6% in 2013; China is responsible for about half this rise.
• Between 2008 and 2014, the number scientific articles included in the Thomson Reuters’ Web of Science – Science Citation Index grew by 23. Growth was strongest among the upper middle-income economies (94%) and low-income ones (68%).
• The availability of STI data to inform policy-making has improved moderately: 108 countries have recent data on research expenditure (up from 102 in the 2010 edition), thanks in part to new observatories of STI, such as in Africa and some Arab States. Many countries do not yet survey business R&D, however.
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Greater interest in Africa in science and technology
There are three main thrusts for many African ‘vision’ planning documents to 2020 or 2030:
• better governance ;
• more inclusive growth ;
• sustainable development.
Both national and subregional ‘vision’ documents acknowledge the importance of science, technology and innovation for sustainable development.
Many African countries now have STI policies (e.g. 11 out of 15 SADC countries). Several have increased their financial commitment to R&D substantially since 2009, including:
Egypt: 0.43% 0.68% of GDP
Ethiopia: 0.24% 0.61% of GDP
Kenya: 0.36% 0.79% of GDP
Mali: 0.25% 0.66% of GDP
Senegal: 0.37% 0.54% of GDP
Uganda: 0.36% 0.48% of GDP
4 From: Presentation of UNESCO Science Report, Harare, 1 March 2016
R&D positions in the world
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Brazil
Canada
China
France Germany
India
Iran
Japan
Korea, Rep.
Russian Fed.
South Africa
Turkey
UK
USA
LCDs
EU
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
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0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50
Re
sear
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rs p
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pu
lati
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GERD as a % of GDP
1. (Cont’d) Convergence – Divergence: Researchers
• The number of researchers grew by 21% between 2007 and 2013, to 7.8 million. Few of them work in low-income countries (Figure A – left side).
• Researchers represent 0.11% of the world population, or, roughly 0.2% of its labour force.
• Germany is the only major advanced economy that has maintained its world share of researchers (Figure 1.7).
• The rising world share of middle-income countries is primarily driven by China, despite a major downward revision of researcher statistics in China in 2009. There has also been strong progress in the Republic of Korea.
• The number of researchers per million inhabitants (Figure A, right side) in high-income countries is still 9 times higher than in the upper-middle income countries and 20 times higher than in lower-middle income countries.
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Figure A: Researchers and researcher intensity, 2007 and 2013
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Researchers: Absolute number (‘000s) and world share (%)
Researchers per million inhabitants
69.5%64.4%
22.5%
28.0%6.9%
6.4%
1.2%
1.3%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2007 2013
High-income Upper middle-income
Lower middle-income Low income
3517
621
18899
3814
888
193 121
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3500
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High-income Upper middle-income
Lower middle-income
Low income
2007 2013
Note: Upper middle-income includes China (19.1% of world researchers in 2013) Based on Table 1.3 in the report
Economic diversification in Africa hampered by a skills shortage
Africa needs more scientists, engineers, technicians, agronomists, etc to achieve its development goals Researchers: 91 (FTE) researchers per million inhabitants in sub-Saharan Africa, 495 in North Africa; this is up from
77 in 2007 (sub-Saharan Africa) and 474 in North Africa but still well below the world average of 1 083
8 From: Presentation of UNESCO Science Report, Harare, 1 March 2016
2. A shifting public commitment towards R&D
• A de facto convergence, due to declining government investment in R&D in a number of advanced economies, and strong growth in a few “emerging” ones.
• Government funding for R&D has been weaker (as a % share of GDP) in most G7 countries since the 2008 crisis (Figure 1.1)
• Nearly all countries are striving to increase the share of innovation undertaken by business enterprises, with varying levels of success (Figure 1.2).
• Globally, China and India account for most of the convergence in R&D performed by businesses (Figure 2.1).
• But significant growth in R&D intensity is found in economies at different stages of development: GERD-GDP ratio has reached 0.79% in Kenya in 2010, well above the average of lower middle income economies (0.50%), or, for instance, Latin America (around 0.65% – 0.67%).
• Several middle-income economies are becoming hubs for nanotechnologies – or harbour this ambition –, including Brazil, China, India, Iran and Malaysia.
• Innovation enabled by the technology embedded in acquired machinery or other means (independent from in-house R&D) is increasingly important for many developing countries.
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US public R&D expenditures
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0
10,000
20,000
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Mill
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4 U
SD
Year
R&D Budget by Agency (Inflation Adjusted), Source AAAS
DOD
NASA
DOE
HHS
NSF
USDA
Interior
DOT
EPA
DOC
DHS
VA
Other
Figure 1.1: GERD financed by government as a share of GDP, 2005–2013 (%)
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Figure 1.2: GERD performed by business enterprises as a share of GDP, 2005–2013 (%)
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Figure 2.1: World shares of business R&D, 2001–
2011 (in PPP$)
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3. Open science and open education: an emerging global research labour market?
• Open science and international knowledge mobility.
• Publications are an area where convergence is most evident, with strong growth rates being observed in middle income economies (Figure B, upper panel).
• Cross-border co-authorship as indicator for international collaboration is on the rise everywhere (Figure B, lower panel).
• Convergence of the other half of human capital leaves much to be desired
• Although women have by and large reached parity in higher education, their share falls as one moves from education to research and plummets as one approaches the commanding heights of STI governance (Figures 3.1 & 3.2).
• There appears to be a convergence of minds, in the acceptance that fostering science, technology and innovation is an issue relevant at all stages of development.
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Figure B: Strong growth in scientific production and cross-border cooperation
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Growth rate of scientific publications between 2008 and 2014
Publications with international co-authors, 2008 and 2014 (%)
11.8
94.4
46.467.5
109.6
51.0
50.030.0
14.0
250.6
150.9127.6
103.2
65.950.3 44.3
31.811.1 6.1 -4.1
-50.0
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2014
2008
Not much convergence on gender parity
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Figure 3.1: Regional shares of female researchers, 2013 (%)
Figure 3.2: The leaky pipeline: share of women in higher education and research, 2013 (%)
Although women have by and large reached parity in higher education, their share falls as one moves from education to research and plummets as one approaches the commanding heights of STI governance
Yet, three out of 10 sub-Saharan researchers is a woman Several governments are putting policies in place to augment the number of women researchers (e.g. Ethiopia)
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Share of women researchers in Africa,
2013 or closest year (%)
(Europe and the Middle East
are shown for comparison)
From: Presentation of UNESCO Science Report, Harare, 1 March 2016
3. Open science and open education: an emerging global research labour market? (Cont’d)
• Open science and international mobility.
• Growing competition among scientists to secure best jobs; growing competition among institutions and governments to retain and attract talent.
• Internet has facilitated international scientific collaboration and online university courses (MOOCs).
• The number of international students rose by 46% between 2005 and 2013: from 2.8 million to 4.1 million.
• International mobility is higher at the doctoral level than at lower tertiary levels in science (29% of all mobile doctoral students were enrolled in science or engineering degrees, compared to 13% of other tertiary students).
• Increasing pressures in emerging countries to maintain and update research infrastructure: growing need to share use of such infrastructure.
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4. “Good” governance is good for science: public vs private science
• At aggregate level it is possible to detect some link between good governance and scientific productivity
• In Figure 4.1, the “rule of law” index on horizontal axis (Range:-2.5 (weak) to 2.5 (strong)) is linked to the “Quality of Scientific Institutions” (Range: 1 (weak) to 7 (strong)) and to publications per million population.
• Scientific output has increased significantly across the world
• Countries and group of countries show some remarkable differences in science specialisation, pointing again to the importance of national science specialisation (Figures 4.2, 4.3, 4.4).
• Patenting remains dominated by a minority of countries
• Taken together, the European Union, China, Japan, Republic of Korea and USA hold nine out of ten triadic patents in the world (leave it to contributions at this conference to elaborate much more on this).
• Countries vary though considerably in the relative emphasis they place on publishing (diffusion of knowledge) vs patenting (appropriation of knowledge) Figure 4.5
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Figure 4.1 Good governance and scientific productivity go hand in hand
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Rule of law index (average of 2011-13)
Figure 4.2 Trends in scientific specialization, 2008–2014: High-Income Countries
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Agricultural sciences
Astronomy
Biological science
Chemistry
Computer Sciences
Engineering
Geosciences Mathematics
Medical Sciences
Other Lifes Sciences
Physics
Psychology
Social Sciences
United States of America United Kingdom Germany Japan France Canada
Figure 4.3 (Cont’d) Major emerging countries
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Agricultural sciences
Astronomy
Biological science
Chemistry
Computer Sciences
Engineering
Geosciences Mathematics
Medical Sciences
Other Lifes Sciences
Physics
Psychology
Social Sciences
China Russian Federation Brazil India South Africa Korea, Rep.
Figure 4.4. (Cont’d) Other selected countries
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Agricultural sciences
Astronomy
Biological science
Chemistry
Computer Sciences
Engineering
Geosciences Mathematics
Medical Sciences
Other Lifes Sciences
Physics
Psychology
Social Sciences
Turkey Malaysia Mexico Arab States Sub-saharan Africa (-South Africa). Latin America (-Brazil)
4. “Good” governance is good for science: public vs. private science (Cont’d)
• Science powers commerce – but not only: commerce and government power modern science together.
• With public budgets under pressure in advanced economies especially since the 2008 financial crisis, there is a temptation to divert public research budgets towards the commercialization end of the innovation cycle. However, the enterprise sector itself needs
• But it is the combination of high public investment in R&D and availability of adequate human resources for S&T that underpins high business investment in research (Figures 4..6a and 4.6b).
• Countries that combine a government investment and a high rate of availability in S&T human resources invariably achieve a high level of business investment in R&D
• Yet, a “resource curse” appears to stop the wealthiest countries from making the most out of science and innovation
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Figure 4.6a Links between public and private research investment
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Finland
Denmark Israel
Singapore
Korea, Rep. of
Norway
Luxembourg
Sweden Japan
Canada Portugal Austria
UK Germany Slovenia
USA
France
Belgium
New Zealand Netherlands
Estonia Ireland
Russian Fed.
Spain Czech Republic Slovakia
Lithuania
Hungary Latvia
Italy Poland
Croatia Malta
Bulgaria Malaysia Ukraine Costa Rica Argentina
Serbia
Turkey
China Romania
Brazil Kazakhstan
Uruguay
Mexico
Colombia
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GERD funded from non-business sources as a percentage of GDP, average of 2010-11
Figure 4.6b: Mutually reinforcing effect of strong government investment in R&D and researchers, 2010–2011
The size of the bubbles is proportionate to GERD funded by business as a share of GDP (%)
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Finland
Denmark
Singapore
Korea, Rep. of
Norway
Luxembourg
Sweden Japan
Canada
Portugal
Austria UK
Germany Slovenia
USA France
Belgium
New Zealand Netherlands
Estonia Ireland
Russian Fed.
Spain Czech Republic Slovakia
Lithuania
Hungary Latvia
Italy Poland Croatia
Malta
Bulgaria Malaysia Ukraine Costa Rica Argentina
Serbia
Turkey
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Romania
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Kazakhstan
Uruguay
Mexico Colombia
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GERD funded from non-business sources as a percentage of GDP (%)
5. Science for today’s vs tomorrow’s needs
• Few countries have increased their focus on basic research substantially
• Despite phenomenal growth in total R&D, China’s spending on basic research remains low, at 4.7% of total research expenditure in 2013.
• The US government traditionally supports basic research but current budgetary pressures risk reducing the country’s long-term capacity to generate knowledge.
• And yet some countries are making a big effort to support basic research
• The European Research Council (est. 2007), the first pan-European funding body for frontier research in basic sciences, has been endowed with € 13.1 billion for the period 2014–2020, equivalent to 17% of Horizon 2020’s overall budget.
• The Republic of Korea increased the share of its research expenditure going to basic research from 13% in 2001 to 18% in 2011. Malaysia has followed a similar path (from 11% in 2006 to 17% in 2011).
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Five Key Messages
1. A South-North “convergence” in science, technology and innovation continues ... but remains very uneven.
2. Declining public commitment to science in high-income countries ... Growing belief in science in emerging and lower income countries... Innovation occurring across the full spectrum of income levels.
3. Trend towards open science, open innovation and open education... Emergence of a global labour market for researchers.
4. Good governance is good for science... Debates on the role of public vs. private science... Increasing focus on science for productivity and a growing role for business-driven science.
5. Towards 2030: science for today’s vs tomorrow’s needs. How to achieve the new Sustainable Development Goals (Agenda 2030)?
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