Grain: World Markets and Trade
Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board - USDA
Global corn production in 2016/17 is projected up sharply from last year, driven by larger crops for the United States, Argentina, South Africa, and the EU. Global consumption is expected to rise to a record, reflecting growth in feed use for China and the EU. Global import demand is expected marginally lower, driven by the EU and China. Global ending stocks are forecast down slightly as a drawdown in China more than offsets a build-up in the United States. Global wheat production is forecast lower than last year’s record, but continues to outpace consumption for the fourth consecutive year. The EU, Morocco, Turkey, and Ukraine have sizeable production cuts, but these are partly offset by larger crops in Argentina and Russia. Global consumption is projected up fractionally as steady growth in food use more than offsets lower wheat feeding. Global trade is down very slightly from the 2015/16 record. The EU is forecast to be the world’s largest exporter for the fourth straight year. Global stocks are projected to an all-time high, driven primarily by China. Rice production is projected at a new record, with significant increases for South and Southeast Asia and the United States. Consumption is forecast to rise moderately. Trade is projected lower as improved crops in importing countries reduce demand. U.S. exports are projected higher on ample supplies and improved price competitiveness. Declines in exporter stocks are offset by increases in China.
Record Grain Supplies Pressure Prices Lower
United States Department of Agriculture
Foreign Agricultural Service
May 2016
800825850875900925950975
1,0001,025
11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17Production Consumption
Global Corn Production Slightly Below Consumption MMT
500525550575600625650675700725750
11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17
Production Consumption
Global Wheat Production Slightly Above Consumption
MMT
For email subscription, click here to register: http://www.fas.usda.gov/data/grain-world-markets-and-trade
400
425
450
475
500
11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17Milled Production Consumption
Global Rice Production Slightly Above Consumption MMT
2
TABLE OF CONTENTS
World Markets and Trade: Commentary and Current Data Wheat ................................................................................................................. 4
Rice .................................................................................................................. 13
Coarse Grains ................................................................................................... 22
Historical Data Series for Selected Regions and Countries ............................ 45
Endnotes to Grain: World Markets and Trade ............................................... 64
The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) updates its production, supply and distribution (PSD)
database for cotton, oilseeds, and grains at 12:00 p.m. on the day the World Agricultural Supply
and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is released. This circular is released by 12:15 p.m.
To download the tables in the publication, go to Production, Supply and Distribution Database
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Click the plus sign [+] next to Grains.
FAS Reports and Databases:
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Archives World Markets and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports:
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Production, Supply and Distribution Database (PSD Online):
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Global Agricultural Trade System (U.S. Exports and Imports):
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Export Sales Report:
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Global Agricultural Information Network (Agricultural Attaché Reports):
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Other USDA Reports:
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE):
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Economic Research Service:
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National Agricultural Statistics Service:
http://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
All Grain Summary Comparison
Million Metric Tons
Marketing Year
Wheat Rice, Milled Corn
2016/172015/162014/152016/172015/162014/152016/172015/162014/15
Production
United States (Jun-May) 55.1 55.8 54.4 7.1 6.1 7.3 361.1 345.5 366.5
Other 671.8 678.3 672.6 471.6 464.4 473.4 652.4 623.4 644.6
World Total 726.9 734.1 727.0 478.7 470.5 480.7 1,013.5 968.9 1,011.1
Domestic Consumption
United States (Jun-May) 31.6 31.7 32.7 4.2 3.9 4.3 301.9 301.3 310.4
Other 667.7 673.6 676.1 471.4 473.0 474.2 662.2 678.9 697.3
World Total 699.3 705.3 708.8 475.6 476.9 478.5 964.1 980.2 1,007.7
Ending Stocks
United States (Jun-May) 20.5 26.6 28.0 1.6 1.4 1.6 44.0 45.8 54.7
Other 196.0 216.3 229.3 112.8 105.0 105.0 163.9 162.1 152.3
World Total 216.5 242.9 257.3 114.4 106.4 106.6 207.9 207.9 207.0
TY Imports
United States (Jun-May) 4.0 3.2 3.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.4 1.0
Other 154.4 160.8 157.2 38.5 38.7 37.8 124.7 129.9 129.7
World Total 158.4 164.0 160.7 39.3 39.5 38.6 125.5 131.3 130.7
TY Exports
United States (Jun-May) 22.8 21.3 24.0 3.5 3.3 3.6 46.8 43.5 49.0
Other 138.7 145.3 140.0 39.3 38.1 37.1 81.2 90.4 84.8
World Total 161.5 166.6 164.0 42.8 41.4 40.7 128.0 133.9 133.8
Note: Consumption in this table has not been adjusted for differences in marketing year imports and
exports and therefore differs from global totals shown elsewhere.Marketing years for U.S. grains are:
Wheat (Jun-May), Rice (Aug-Jul), Corn (Sep-Aug).'Marketing Year' column is germane for U.S. wheat
only.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
4
640
660
680
700
720
740
Production Consumption
MM
T
WHEAT: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE
HIGHLIGHTS FOR 2016/17
Global wheat production is
projected at 727 million
metric tons (MMT) down 7.1
MMT, and slightly below the
2015/16 record. Production
among the major exporting
countries of Argentina,
Australia, Canada, EU,
Kazakhstan, Russia,
Ukraine, and the United
States is down a net 2.4
MMT. Projected gains in
Argentina, Australia,
Canada, and Russia’s wheat
production are not enough to
offset declines in the EU,
Kazakhstan, Ukraine, and the United States. In the EU, although area harvested is projected
to rise, yields are expected to dip. Farmers in Argentina are projected to produce more wheat
as elimination of export policy restrictions incentivizes increased planting. Production in
Canada is expected to rise marginally as increased winter wheat offsets reduced spring wheat
area. Russia’s wheat crop is expected to be the second largest on record. Production in Ukraine
is expected to drop from last year, but recent favorable weather conditions have boosted crop
potential. U.S. production is projected lower than last year as a sharp reduction in area more
than offsets above-average yields. Ethiopia and South Africa’s production is projected to
significantly recover from last year’s drought affected crop. China’s wheat production is nearly
unchanged from 2015/16, adding to the country’s already burdensome supplies. Morocco, on
the other hand, is suffering from a drought and its crop is projected at a 9-year low.
Global consumption is up 0.5 percent as greater food, seed and industrial use (FSI), up 1.1
percent, is more than offset by a 2.3 percent drop in feed use. Population, urbanization, and
income growth, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia, are driving the growth in
food consumption. Wheat used as a component in animal feed rations is projected to decline
slightly due to greater utilization of coarse grains, particularly in China, EU, and Thailand.
Production Outpaces Consumption
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
5
2016/17 global ending
stocks are projected to
reach a new record of
257 million tons, up
14.4 million tons from
last year. China’s
burgeoning stocks now
account for a
whopping 46 percent
of global stocks and
are expected up 21.7
million tons from last
year. Projected ending
stocks, less China, are
actually down year-to-
year.
Ending stocks in the eight
major exporting countries
as a whole are projected
up slightly year-to-year.
However, stocks in the
EU and the United States
account for nearly two-
thirds of this total. Stocks
in Argentina,
Kazakhstan, and
Ukraine, are expected to
be lower than in 2015/16.
*Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine
**Argentina, Australia, Canada
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17
U.S. Black Sea* EU Others**
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17
MM
T
Rest Of World China
Global Ending Stocks Reach a Record
Driven by China
Exporter Ending Stocks Continue
Upward Trend MMT
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
6
Selected Importers 2016/17
Global trade is forecast down nearly 2
percent from the 2015/16 record, but
remains sizeable at 163.5 million tons.
The EU and Thailand are expected to
reduce imports of feed-quality wheat as
global exportable supplies of feed-quality
wheat tighten and relatively lower-priced
domestic coarse grains replace imported
wheat in feed rations. The Philippines,
on the other hand, is projected to import
more feed-quality wheat as domestic corn
supplies tighten. Ethiopia, Iran,
Mexico, and Tunisia will likely lower
imports due to improved domestic
production. The United States is
projected to increase imports as a result of a smaller expected crop.
Algeria is down 600,000 tons from 8.1 million to 7.5 million. The government continues
to build domestic stocks in order to take advantage of low international prices.
Egypt is unchanged at 12.0 million tons.
Ethiopia is down 1.1 million tons from 3.1 million to 2.0 million.
EU is down 1.0 million tons from 6.5 million to 5.5 million.
Iran is down 1.8 million tons from 3.3 million to 1.5 million based on a larger crop and
the implementation of an import duty which is likely to restrict imports.
Mexico is down 200,000 tons from 4.4 million to 4.2 million.
Morocco is up 1.5 million tons from 4.0 million to a record 5.5 million. Morocco’s
wheat crop suffered from a drought, raising import demand to a record.
Philippines is up 500,000 tons from 4.3 million to 4.8 million.
Saudi Arabia is up 500,000 tons from 3.0 million to 3.5 million. Saudi Arabia is
projected to import a larger quantity in order to meet growing food consumption. Its
domestic wheat production was phased out and the country depends solely on imports to
meet growing demand.
Thailand is down 900,000 tons from 4.5 million to 3.6 million.
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
MM
T
Global Trade Dips
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
7
Tunisia is down 300,000 tons from 2.0 million to 1.7 million tons.
The United States is up 300,000 tons from 3.2 million to 3.5 million as a result of lower
expected domestic production.
Selected Exporters 2016/17
With global trade declining
fractionally and global supplies
projected at a record in
2016/17, competition for
global market share is expected
to intensify. U.S. exports are
expected to rebound slightly
from their 44-year low.
Canada and Argentina’s
supplies are expected to tighten
during the Northern
Hemisphere summer and fall
months until new crops come
to market. This will give the
United States an opportunity
to increase market share.
Argentina is unchanged at 8.5 million tons, although new supplies are not expected to hit
the market until the second half of the trade year.
Australia is up 500,000 tons from 16.5 million to 17.0 million tons due to a slightly
larger expected crop.
Canada is down 2.5 million tons from 22.5 million to 20.0 million tons. Although the
crop is projected slightly higher, tight carry-in stocks will limit export volume.
EU is up 2.5 million tons from 32.5 million to 35.0 million. An appreciable upturn in
exports to a near record is projected, supported by a large supplies and a sizeable crop.
Kazakhstan is down 500,000 tons from 7.5 million to 7.0 million tons because of a
smaller expected crop.
Russia is unchanged at a record 24.5 million tons.
Ukraine is down 4.0 million tons from 15.5 million to 11.5 million tons because of a
smaller crop.
The United States is up 2.7 million tons from 21.3 million to 24.0 million tons.
15
20
25
30
35
40
13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17
MM
T
Slight Rebound for U.S. Exports
Canada EU Russia United States
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
8
2015/16 OVERVIEW
Global trade is up significantly month-to-month to a record 166.6 million tons. Egypt, Ethiopia,
Thailand, Indonesia, Morocco, and Turkey imports are all raised. Partly offsetting are cuts in
Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Argentina, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkey exports
are all raised. U.S. exports, imports, and the season-average farm price are all unchanged.
Season-average farm prices in 2016/17 are projected in the range of $3.70 to $4.50/bushel, down
from $4.90/bushel in 2015/16.
PRICES:
Domestic: Wheat prices experienced mostly modest fluctuations in April. Hard Red Winter
(HRW) fell $5/ton to $200. Soft Red Winter (SRW) and Soft White Winter (SWW) also settled
at $200/ton, rising $3 and $9, respectively. Hard Red Spring (HRS) rose marginally by $3/ton to
$230.
TRADE CHANGES IN 2015/16
Selected Importers
Egypt is up 1.0 million tons to 12.0 million due to the robust pace of shipments to
date.
Ethiopia is raised 700,000 tons to 3.1 million on account of continued government
purchases combined with food aid shipments.
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
1/1/2016 2/1/2016 3/1/2016 4/1/2016 5/1/2016
$/M
T
U.S. Weekly FOB Export Bids
HRW SRW SWW HRS
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
9
Indonesia is boosted 500,000 tons to 8.6 million as demand for feed-quality wheat
surges, resulting from government-imposed limitations on corn imports.
Iraq is lowered 300,000 tons to 2.4 million due to sluggish trade.
Morocco is up 1.0 million tons to 4.0 million as industry boosts purchases in
anticipation of tight domestic supplies caused by a drought-ravaged crop.
Saudi Arabia is down 300,000 tons to 3.0 million as a result of higher-than-
anticipated domestic procurement of the 2014/15 crop.
Thailand is raised 700,000 tons to 4.5 million due to strong demand for feed-quality
wheat. Drought is forcing the domestic corn crop to be planted later than normal
affecting supplies of feed grains.
Turkey is up 500,000 tons to 4.3 million on account of larger-than-expected exports
of flour and products. Turkey has an inward processing mechanism in which wheat
can be imported duty-free as long as it is exported in the form of flour or products.
Selected Exporters
Argentina is raised 1.0 million tons to 8.5 million on a higher-than-expected pace of
shipments.
Canada is up 500,000 tons to 22.5 million as stronger trade persists despite
tightening stocks.
EU is boosted 500,000 tons to 32.5 million as the issuance of voluminous export
licenses continues.
Kazakhstan is up 500,000 tons to 7.5 million on account of the strong pace of trade.
Russia is raised 1.5 million tons to a record 24.5 million based on trade data.
Turkey is up 300,000 tons to 5.3 million due to the robust trade of flour and
products.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
World Wheat, Flour, and Products Trade
July/June Year, Thousand Metric Tons
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
May
none
TY Exports
8,5008,5004,2001,6757,45011,951 Argentina
17,00016,50016,57518,33921,26923,031 Australia
1,0001,3001,688811,7531,860 Brazil
20,00022,50024,87722,15618,58417,603 Canada
35,00032,50035,41832,03222,78616,728 European Union
7,0007,5005,5078,0006,80111,069 Kazakhstan
1,2001,1001,1041,322729790 Mexico
24,50024,50022,80018,60911,30821,627 Russia
5,0005,3004,1344,2933,5833,678 Turkey
11,50015,50011,2699,7557,1905,436 Ukraine
9,25210,13711,20614,67318,06711,830 Others
139,952145,337138,778130,935119,520125,603 Subtotal
24,00021,30022,75231,51827,73428,142 United States
163,952166,637161,530162,453147,254153,745 World Total
none
TY Imports
2,2002,4002,0002,0501,6002,200 Afghanistan
7,5008,1007,2577,4846,4846,500 Algeria
4,4004,2003,9153,3542,7252,039 Bangladesh
5,8005,8005,8697,0617,5477,053 Brazil
3,2003,0001,9266,7732,9602,933 China
12,00012,00011,10010,1508,40011,650 Egypt
2,0003,1001,1006701,3441,550 Ethiopia
5,5006,5005,9753,9765,2767,362 European Union
8,7008,6007,4787,3917,1466,457 Indonesia
2,2002,4002,2533,2463,9483,784 Iraq
5,7005,7005,8786,1236,5986,354 Japan
4,3004,3003,9424,2885,4395,188 Korea, South
4,2004,4004,4764,6393,8235,020 Mexico
5,5004,0004,0863,9283,8253,671 Morocco
4,1004,3004,2444,5804,1683,901 Nigeria
1,9001,9001,9072,1141,6831,585 Peru
4,8004,3005,0553,4763,6204,022 Philippines
3,5003,0003,4873,4291,9212,904 Saudi Arabia
1,9002,0001,9011,8491,5581,542 South Africa
2,1002,3002,6322,6641,7932,360 Sudan
3,6004,5003,4881,6841,8402,646 Thailand
4,5004,3005,9604,1493,3124,413 Turkey
2,5002,6002,2302,2241,8632,698 Uzbekistan
2,7002,8002,2962,1571,6712,711 Vietnam
3,3503,3003,2453,4253,2072,667 Yemen
49,07150,96650,75852,69547,56945,514 Others
157,221160,766154,458155,579141,320148,724 Subtotal
3,2312,6713,0852,0892,4581,984 Unaccounted
3,5003,2003,9874,7853,4763,037 United States
163,952166,637161,530162,453147,254153,745 World Total
TY=Trade Year, see Endnotes.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
World Wheat Production, Consumption, and Stocks
Local Marketing Years, Thousand Metric Tons
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
May
none
Production
14,50011,30014,00010,5009,30015,500 Argentina
25,00024,50023,07625,30322,85629,905 Australia
5,5005,5406,0005,3004,3805,800 Brazil
28,50027,60029,42037,53027,20525,288 Canada
130,000130,190126,208121,930121,023117,400 China
8,1008,1008,3008,2508,5008,400 Egypt
156,500160,006156,828144,583133,949138,182 European Union
88,00086,53095,85093,50694,88286,874 India
15,50015,00013,00014,50013,80012,400 Iran
13,00013,74812,99613,9419,84122,732 Kazakhstan
25,30025,10025,97924,21123,47325,214 Pakistan
63,00061,04459,08052,09137,72056,240 Russia
17,50019,50015,25018,75016,00018,800 Turkey
24,00027,27424,75022,27815,76122,324 Ukraine
7,2007,2007,1506,8006,7006,300 Uzbekistan
51,02655,57853,90957,34451,59551,254 Others
672,626678,210671,796656,817596,985642,613 Subtotal
54,36655,84055,14758,10561,29854,244 United States
726,992734,050726,943714,922658,283696,857 World Total
none
Total Consumption
10,45010,25010,0509,8509,4508,950 Algeria
10,10010,20010,70011,40010,90011,200 Brazil
8,8008,8009,0779,4149,5559,852 Canada
110,500112,000116,500116,500125,000122,500 China
19,70019,20019,10018,50018,70018,600 Egypt
126,800128,800123,500117,300119,250127,234 European Union
91,95088,73093,12293,84883,82481,408 India
8,4008,1507,3657,1656,9506,250 Indonesia
18,50018,00017,50017,00016,00015,200 Iran
9,6009,8009,0009,0008,3008,800 Morocco
24,50024,40024,50024,10023,90023,100 Pakistan
37,50037,00035,50034,10033,55038,000 Russia
17,80018,00017,50017,75017,65018,100 Turkey
12,50012,50012,00011,50011,40014,950 Ukraine
9,5009,3008,9008,4008,0007,800 Uzbekistan
159,487158,444153,414150,229146,702145,764 Others
679,844675,942673,034663,545641,284665,698 Subtotal
32,71331,74131,55434,28737,76831,962 United States
712,557707,683704,588697,832679,052697,660 World Total
none
Ending Stocks
5,6184,9284,0034,5584,6637,051 Australia
117,99596,29576,10565,27453,96055,946 China
4,5694,7194,3694,4084,7216,698 Egypt
19,22919,02913,8239,93810,71113,522 European Union
11,15014,50017,20017,83024,20019,950 India
5,9468,1467,8467,2415,096825 Iran
8,1296,6296,2855,1774,93310,899 Russia
56,71462,04666,43163,69349,27262,761 Others
229,350216,292196,062178,119157,556177,652 Subtotal
27,99126,61420,47716,06519,53820,211 United States
257,341242,906216,539194,184177,094197,863 World Total
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
Regional Wheat Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks
Thousand Metric Tons
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16
May
2016/17
TY Imports none
8,554 North America 7,784 9,866 8,953 8,085 8,185
1,666 Central America 1,654 1,833 1,834 1,830 1,855
13,779 South America 14,422 14,866 13,132 13,315 13,110
7,362 European Union - 28 5,276 3,976 5,975 6,500 5,500
1,911 Other Europe 1,632 1,858 1,760 1,850 1,785
8,032 Former Soviet Union - 12 7,246 7,506 7,681 7,840 7,470
23,023 Middle East 24,230 28,384 26,912 24,475 23,240
24,855 North Africa 22,047 25,246 25,230 27,300 27,900
19,204 Sub-Saharan Africa 18,585 20,502 20,939 23,345 21,985
16,868 East Asia 17,354 19,465 14,115 15,410 15,520
5,428 South Asia 5,308 6,721 8,149 8,226 8,726
17,956 Southeast Asia 16,294 17,101 20,541 22,550 22,185
3,123 Others 2,964 3,040 3,224 3,240 3,260
151,761 Total 144,796 160,364 158,445 163,966 160,721
Production none
83,160 North America 91,734 99,012 88,254 87,200 86,966
26,131 South America 18,011 19,762 24,222 20,643 23,918
138,182 European Union - 28 133,949 144,583 156,828 160,006 156,500
3,597 Other Europe 3,431 4,059 3,856 4,032 4,015
114,985 Former Soviet Union - 12 77,802 103,885 112,735 117,596 115,830
39,285 Middle East 36,884 41,708 35,414 41,820 39,310
18,584 North Africa 17,328 19,656 17,010 19,910 14,700
6,234 Sub-Saharan Africa 6,716 7,154 7,144 6,371 7,127
118,775 East Asia 122,490 123,248 127,650 131,516 131,360
117,450 South Asia 126,412 125,917 130,154 119,840 121,645
30,288 Oceania 23,345 25,751 23,490 24,925 25,430
186 Others 181 187 186 191 191
696,857 Total 658,283 714,922 726,943 734,050 726,992
Domestic Consumption none
49,414 North America 53,948 50,351 47,481 47,541 48,633
26,085 South America 26,212 27,126 26,780 26,475 26,507
127,234 European Union - 28 119,250 117,300 123,500 128,800 126,800
4,871 Other Europe 4,721 4,757 4,810 4,865 4,980
79,970 Former Soviet Union - 12 71,725 72,750 75,860 78,030 78,965
56,723 Middle East 56,636 58,717 58,112 60,090 60,180
40,927 North Africa 41,290 42,425 42,651 43,525 44,000
23,291 Sub-Saharan Africa 24,047 26,341 26,848 28,249 28,470
137,357 East Asia 140,071 130,201 129,513 125,180 123,750
115,930 South Asia 121,007 132,041 132,322 128,656 132,491
16,665 Southeast Asia 16,515 16,560 19,265 21,620 21,460
7,824 Oceania 8,111 8,280 8,569 8,600 8,845
3,379 Others 3,366 3,494 3,571 3,684 3,719
689,670 Total 686,899 690,343 699,282 705,315 708,800
Ending Stocks none
26,718 North America 24,925 26,790 28,080 31,062 32,604
4,204 South America 3,538 6,834 8,338 4,545 4,200
13,522 European Union - 28 10,711 9,938 13,823 19,029 19,229
1,439 Other Europe 1,057 941 1,074 1,216 1,161
26,379 Former Soviet Union - 12 14,288 15,727 20,084 19,160 19,865
12,395 Middle East 14,049 18,560 18,443 19,013 15,348
14,319 North Africa 11,795 13,802 12,784 15,619 13,379
2,401 Sub-Saharan Africa 2,485 2,923 2,931 3,498 3,035
58,938 East Asia 57,214 68,314 79,228 99,439 121,029
25,129 South Asia 27,995 21,661 23,185 20,840 17,470
4,615 Southeast Asia 3,718 3,466 3,892 3,962 3,857
7,432 Oceania 4,978 4,861 4,289 5,204 5,889
372 Others 341 367 388 319 275
197,863 Total 177,094 194,184 216,539 242,906 257,341
NOTES: Regional definitions appear on last page of this circular. Imports are reported on a trade year basis. All other data are
reported using local marketing years.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
13
450
455
460
465
470
475
480
485
MM
T
Production Rebounds Sharply while Consumption Rises Gradually
Milled Production
Consumption and Residual
RICE: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE
HIGHLIGHTS OF 2016/17
Global production is projected to rebound to a
record 480.7 million tons. China and India,
which together account for over half of global
production, are forecast to have larger crops.
Production in Southeast Asia, accounting for
nearly another quarter, is projected to recover
with an easing of the El Niño weather pattern,
and to reduce import needs in the region.
Africa’s crop is forecast to reach a record. In
South America, production is projected to
rebound due to notable increases for Argentina
and Brazil. The U.S. crop is forecast to be
higher on expanded area, and is set to be the
third largest on record.
Global consumption continues to rise, though the
growth is modest. Per capita food use is
growing in many African countries, but
declining in a number of Asian countries.
Notably, feed use is expected to increase in
certain Asian markets, including Thailand, Japan, and South Korea.
Due to steady consumption growth, global ending stocks are projected to rise only marginally.
Ending stocks for Thailand are forecast down nearly 50 percent at just over 3 million tons, the
lowest since 2007/08. Additionally, India’s stocks are forecast at 11 million, down more than 15
percent and the lowest since 2005/06. China’s stocks have risen sharply, as growth in imports
and production has exceeded that of consumption. Amid a near-record crop and intense export
competition, U.S. ending stocks are forecast to reach the highest level since the 1980s.
05
1015202530354045
MM
T
Exporter Ending Stocks
Pakistan
United States
Vietnam
Thailand
India 010
20
30
4050
60
70
80
MM
T
China Ending Stocks
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
14
Among key import markets in 2017, a combination of self-sufficiency aspirations, higher
domestic production, and trade restrictions are expected to reduce reliance on imported rice. Of
the top buyers, only China’s imports are forecast to remain stable (around 5.0 million tons).
Despite record production and growing stocks, the difference in prices between China and
bordering countries will likely incentivize steady trade. For Nigeria, however, trade is forecast
to continue to decline as economic and foreign exchange challenges persist and the country
imposes import restrictions. In 2017, forecast crop recovery for Indonesia and the Philippines
is expected to reduce imports below levels expected during 2016.
Selected Importers for 2017
Bangladesh is forecast up 150,000 tons to 500,000 from the prior year, as steady
consumption and declining stocks encourage additional imports.
Brazil is forecast down 100,000 tons to 600,000 because of a larger crop and ample
supplies for domestic consumption.
China is stable at 5.0 million tons as favorable prices in neighboring countries continue
to encourage cross-border trade.
Cote d’Ivoire is projected down 100,000 tons to 900,000 on prospects for a larger crop.
EU is forecast to remain at 1.6 million tons amid steady consumption.
Indonesia is forecast to decline 750,000 tons to 1.3 million as higher production
prospects reduce the need for imports. Consumption remains relatively flat, while stocks
decline slightly.
Iran is forecast to remain at 1.5 million tons, limited by current financial challenges and
despite a growing population.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2014 2015 2016 2017
MM
T Imports Weaken for Some Leading Consumers
Indonesia
Philippines
Nigeria
China
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
15
Iraq is expected to remain flat at 1.2 million tons supported by government distribution
and private-sector purchases.
Malaysia is forecast up 30,000 tons to 1.1 million.
Nigeria is projected down 300,000 tons to 2.0 million on continued government policies
to limit foreign exchange use for rice purchases and to restrict transit via land borders.
The Philippines is cut 300,000 tons to 1.5 million on adequate carry-in stocks and a
projected recovery in production from the 2015/16 crop, which suffered negative effects
of El Niño.
Saudi Arabia is expected up 50,000 tons to 1.5 million tons on continued demand for
basmati rice.
Senegal is projected flat at 990,000 tons on steady demand for broken rice from India and
Thailand.
South Africa is forecast down 75,000 tons to 925,000 as an expected recovery in corn
production reduces demand for rice.
Turkey is projected up 75,000 tons to 275,000 as declining stocks necessitate imports to
satisfy consumption.
The United States is forecast up 25,000 tons to 775,000 on higher demand for fragrant
rice.
Venezuela is forecast to remain at 400,000 tons as financial challenges constrain imports
from regional suppliers.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
16
For 2017, global exports are forecast down for the third consecutive year, sliding from a record
44.1 million tons in 2014 to 40.7 million in the upcoming year. Declining shipments for leading
exporters India and Thailand more than offset increases for Vietnam, Pakistan, and the United
States. A number of factors contribute to the decline, most notably lower demand from many top
importers. In addition, tightening stocks, particularly in Thailand and India, constrain exportable
supplies.
U.S. exports are projected up for 2017, on greater exportable supplies and lower prices. Beyond
the traditional destinations, U.S. rice exporters may need to return to previously-held markets
and identify new customers in an effort to ship substantial supplies amid tight competition with
regional suppliers.
Selected Exporters for 2017
Argentina is forecast up 120,000 tons to 600,000 from the prior year due to a larger crop
and the new administration’s removal of export tariffs.
Brazil is projected up 50,000 tons to 800,000 due to crop recovery and sufficient
exportable supplies.
Burma is forecast up 50,000 tons to 1.9 million on higher demand from regional
markets.
Cambodia is projected up 150,000 tons to 1.1 million, on a larger crop and continued
demand from neighboring countries and the EU.
India is forecast down 500,000 tons to 8.5 million, with smaller exportable supplies and
strong domestic demand.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2014 2015 2016 2017
MM
T Global Exports Continue Decline
Other
United States
Pakistan
Vietnam
India
Thailand
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
17
Pakistan is projected down 150,000 tons to 4.3 million, as it faces lower carry-in stocks
and continued competition with India for basmati markets.
Thailand is forecast down 800,000 tons to 9.0 million, as stocks continue to decline and
exportable supplies are reduced.
The United States is forecast up 275,000 tons to 3.6 million on larger supplies and
improved price competitiveness.
Vietnam is unchanged at 7.0 million tons on steady demand from China and Southeast
Asia.
OVERVIEW OF 2015/16
Global production is down marginally from the prior month as smaller crops for North Korea,
Paraguay and Uruguay more than offset an upward revision for Cote d’Ivoire. Global
consumption is adjusted down slightly, while ending stocks are revised higher, primarily driven
by China. Global trade is down fractionally.
PRICES
Export quotes from Asian origins remain below Western Hemisphere origins, though the gap has
narrowed compared to recent years. Thai quotes have recently edged up, reflecting concerns
about production, given low water reservoir levels. Viet quotes have slid and remain the most
competitively priced. Uruguay quotes are down on ample supplies. U.S. quotes continue at a
premium.
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
$/M
T
FOB Rice Export Quotes
Thai 100B
Viet 5%
U.S. #2/4
Uruguay 5%
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
18
Monthly Trade Changes for 2016
Bangladesh’s imports are slashed 250,000 tons to 350,000 this month as the recent
imposition of an import tariff limits trade volumes amid another record crop.
Brazil’s imports are lowered 100,000 tons to 700,000 on trade to date.
Cote d’Ivoire’s imports are up 200,000 tons to 1.0 million on the pace of trade to date.
Nigeria’s imports are down 200,000 tons to 2.3 million on reduced purchases amid
restrictions on the use of foreign exchange and importation via land borders.
The Philippines’ imports are down 200,000 tons to 1.8 million on improved crop prospects
in the latter part of the year.
Thailand’s exports are down 200,000 tons to 9.8 million on reduced shipments to Southeast
Asian markets.
UAE’s imports are up 140,000 tons to 600,000 on a multi-year revision to higher per capita
consumption.
Uruguay’s exports are down 150,000 tons to 800,000 on a smaller crop.
Venezuela’s imports are down 100,000 tons to 400,000 reflecting macroeconomic
constraints.
NOTES
China’s consumption and stocks series were revised from 2012/13 to the present to reflect a
more moderate rate of growth for consumption, resulting in higher stocks.
Thailand’s consumption and stocks have been revised from 2013/14 to the present, based on
updated information.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
World Rice Trade
January/December Year, Thousand Metric Tons
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
May
none
TY Exports
600480310494526608 Argentina
230200323404460449 Australia
8007508958528301,105 Brazil
1,8501,8001,7351,6881,1631,357 Burma
1,0509001,1501,0001,075900 Cambodia
300350262393447267 China
250250250600700600 Egypt
260270251284203194 European Union
540540536502346265 Guyana
8,5009,00011,04611,58810,48010,250 India
4,2504,4004,0003,6004,1263,399 Pakistan
470470371380365262 Paraguay
9,0009,8009,77910,9696,7226,945 Thailand
8408007189579391,056 Uruguay
7,0007,0006,6066,3256,7007,717 Vietnam
1,1171,0931,0951,0811,1161,295 Others
37,05738,10339,32741,11736,19836,669 Subtotal
3,6003,3253,4722,9983,2953,298 United States
40,65741,42842,79944,11539,49339,967 World Total
none
TY Imports
475450434496430360 Angola
5003505951,29011453 Bangladesh
600700363586712732 Brazil
530530525610550450 Cameroon
5,0005,0005,1504,4503,5002,900 China
9001,0001,1009508301,265 Cote d'Ivoire
510500575377413330 Cuba
1,6001,6001,7861,5561,3751,313 European Union
600580500590725595 Ghana
440470444385416372 Haiti
1,2502,0001,1981,2256501,960 Indonesia
1,4501,4501,3001,6502,2201,500 Iran
1,1501,1501,0091,0801,2941,478 Iraq
700700688669690650 Japan
470460450440410400 Kenya
1,0501,0201,0519898851,006 Malaysia
750700708658746680 Mexico
540500480500500445 Mozambique
550500529510340351 Nepal
2,0002,3002,5003,2002,4003,400 Nigeria
1,5001,8002,0001,8001,0001,500 Philippines
1,5001,4501,4441,4101,3261,193 Saudi Arabia
990985990960902918 Senegal
9251,000912910990870 South Africa
610600580560540520 United Arab Emirates
11,19910,94411,22312,68411,80911,045 Others
37,78938,73938,53440,53535,76736,286 Subtotal
2,0931,9393,5072,8253,0513,041 Unaccounted
775750758755675640 United States
40,65741,42842,79944,11539,49339,967 World Total
TY=Trade Year, see Endnotes. Note about dates: 2015/16 is calendar year 2016, 2014/15 is calendar year 2015, and so on.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
World Rice Production, Consumption, and Stocks
Local Marketing Years, Thousand Metric Tons
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
May
none
Milled Production
34,55034,50034,50034,39033,82033,700 Bangladesh
8,5007,6008,4658,3008,0377,888 Brazil
12,50012,20012,60011,95711,71511,473 Burma
4,7004,3504,7004,7254,6704,268 Cambodia
146,500145,770144,560142,530143,000140,700 China
4,0004,0004,5304,7504,6754,250 Egypt
105,000103,000105,480106,646105,240105,310 India
36,60035,30035,56036,30036,55036,500 Indonesia
7,6807,6537,8497,9317,9077,792 Japan
4,0004,3274,2414,2304,0064,224 Korea, South
6,9006,7006,9006,7985,5366,160 Pakistan
12,00011,35011,91511,85811,42810,710 Philippines
3,4003,3002,8502,8402,6753,138 Sri Lanka
17,00015,80018,75020,46020,20020,460 Thailand
28,50028,10028,16628,16127,53727,152 Vietnam
41,54540,42940,54940,44239,15038,025 Others
473,375464,379471,615472,318466,146461,750 Subtotal
7,3356,1077,1066,1176,3485,866 United States
480,710470,486478,721478,435472,494467,616 World Total
none
Consumption and Residual
35,30035,20035,10034,90034,50034,300 Bangladesh
8,0007,8407,9107,9007,8507,928 Brazil
10,70010,60010,50010,45010,40010,200 Burma
3,6003,6003,6153,6503,5503,400 Cambodia
145,000146,000144,500143,000141,000139,600 China
3,9003,8004,0004,0004,0503,620 Egypt
98,60098,50098,23398,71094,03193,334 India
38,10038,10038,30038,50038,12738,188 Indonesia
8,7008,6008,6008,3808,3518,376 Japan
4,3344,3744,3504,4224,4894,880 Korea, South
3,6503,6003,7163,8113,3533,677 Nepal
5,2005,4005,7005,6005,3005,600 Nigeria
13,30013,25013,20012,85012,85012,860 Philippines
11,10010,80010,60010,70010,60010,400 Thailand
21,80021,85022,00022,00021,60019,650 Vietnam
62,88161,53861,16361,44259,07956,889 Others
476,239474,588474,527473,931461,725457,333 Subtotal
4,2873,8534,1553,9773,7793,492 United States
480,526478,441478,682477,908465,504460,825 World Total
none
Ending Stocks
68,05661,85657,43653,10249,83245,023 China
11,16613,26617,76622,75725,44025,100 India
2,9093,1593,9595,5016,4767,403 Indonesia
2,0892,4942,8213,0072,8572,735 Japan
1,7441,6721,253899780755 Korea, South
2,5102,3102,2101,6951,4871,509 Philippines
3,2206,07010,57011,89912,8089,330 Thailand
13,31814,22316,81514,45812,98013,668 Others
105,012105,050112,830113,318112,660105,523 Subtotal
1,5991,3771,5521,0251,1561,303 United States
106,611106,427114,382114,343113,816106,826 World Total
Note: All data are reported on a milled basis.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
Regional Rice Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks
Thousand Metric Tons
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16
May
2016/17
TY Imports none
1,664 North America 1,776 1,771 1,816 1,810 1,890
845 Caribbean 971 903 1,176 1,125 1,110
1,881 South America 1,833 1,814 1,678 1,817 1,827
120 Other Europe 125 132 128 135 140
469 Former Soviet Union - 12 557 567 467 411 406
6,545 Middle East 7,252 6,891 6,261 6,405 6,605
777 North Africa 487 480 466 465 465
11,853 Sub-Saharan Africa 11,567 12,669 10,971 11,220 10,930
4,389 East Asia 5,349 6,043 6,681 6,636 6,631
737 South Asia 722 2,581 1,579 1,010 1,210
5,488 Southeast Asia 3,606 5,027 5,514 6,020 4,960
2,158 Others 2,197 2,412 2,555 2,435 2,390
36,926 Total 36,442 41,290 39,292 39,489 38,564
Production none
5,979 North America 6,479 6,248 7,285 6,260 7,500
1,002 Caribbean 974 1,054 1,104 996 1,005
15,215 South America 15,852 16,384 16,365 15,582 16,588
2,139 European Union - 28 2,100 1,937 1,963 2,055 2,026
1,294 Former Soviet Union - 12 1,294 1,205 1,185 1,262 1,245
2,170 Middle East 2,251 2,450 2,443 2,392 2,495
4,289 North Africa 4,704 4,789 4,530 4,000 4,000
13,002 Sub-Saharan Africa 13,272 13,984 14,438 15,127 15,390
155,488 East Asia 157,953 157,701 159,486 160,194 160,924
152,027 South Asia 150,631 154,490 153,331 151,120 153,450
113,649 Southeast Asia 115,490 116,867 115,367 110,651 114,971
1,362 Others 1,494 1,326 1,224 847 1,116
467,616 Total 472,494 478,435 478,721 470,486 480,710
Domestic Consumption none
4,668 North America 4,977 5,202 5,369 5,083 5,532
1,156 Central America 1,171 1,193 1,226 1,237 1,288
1,977 Caribbean 1,954 1,992 2,136 2,103 2,151
14,130 South America 14,354 14,542 14,568 14,598 14,781
3,300 European Union - 28 3,250 3,250 3,320 3,380 3,420
1,435 Former Soviet Union - 12 1,579 1,551 1,426 1,441 1,441
8,693 Middle East 8,989 9,248 9,145 9,105 9,160
4,045 North Africa 4,572 4,480 4,430 4,230 4,330
23,816 Sub-Saharan Africa 24,741 26,371 26,055 26,183 26,579
156,212 East Asia 157,459 159,412 160,714 161,904 161,259
137,167 South Asia 137,462 143,476 143,540 143,870 144,270
99,128 Southeast Asia 101,694 102,867 103,157 103,241 103,706
667 Others 707 708 556 530 535
456,394 Total 462,909 474,292 475,642 476,905 478,452
Ending Stocks none
1,455 North America 1,345 1,176 1,704 1,509 1,764
235 Central America 189 208 240 232 235
343 Caribbean 289 266 263 261 225
1,656 South America 1,591 1,902 2,129 1,702 1,900
1,146 European Union - 28 1,188 1,163 1,237 1,232 1,178
1,526 Middle East 2,004 1,836 1,633 1,300 1,215
487 North Africa 427 602 916 901 786
2,085 Sub-Saharan Africa 2,229 1,987 2,283 2,197 1,653
48,887 East Asia 53,832 57,296 61,766 66,298 72,185
27,461 South Asia 26,819 25,629 21,808 16,559 14,094
21,371 Southeast Asia 23,486 21,876 19,997 14,002 11,202
40 Oceania 238 241 247 93 63
134 Others 179 161 159 141 111
106,826 Total 113,816 114,343 114,382 106,427 106,611
NOTES: Regional definitions appear on last page of this circular. Imports are reported on a trade year basis. All other data are
reported using local marketing years.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
22
COARSE GRAINS: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE
OVERVIEW FOR 2016/17
Global coarse grain production is forecast to
reach a near-record level driven by corn and
sorghum, while barley production is expected to
decline modestly. Global consumption is projected
up with greater use of corn and sorghum. Global
trade is forecast to decline slightly driven mostly by
declines for barley and sorghum. China’s import
demand for corn, barley, and sorghum is expected
to fall as changes in the corn support program are
expected to promote domestic corn use.
Global corn production is projected higher. The
U.S. crop is expected to reach a record, while others
– Argentina, EU, India, South Africa, Russia, and
Ukraine – rebound from last year’s levels. Global
consumption is forecast to rise to a record level,
largely due to the aforementioned changes in China,
which has led to a sharp drop in domestic corn prices.
The change in policies in China is expected to
encourage domestic corn use, drawing down stocks.
However, global ending stocks are forecast to decline
only slightly with a nearly offsetting build-up in the
United States. Global import demand is projected to
marginally lower with reductions in China, EU, and
Vietnam more than offsetting growth in Egypt, Iran,
Mexico, South Korea, and Turkey. Brazilian exports
are forecast to plunge about 30 percent from 2015/16
with tightening supplies. Exports are projected
higher for the United States, Argentina, EU, and
Ukraine.
World barley production is expected to drop modestly with reduced crops for Argentina,
Morocco, Turkey, and Ukraine. Due to adverse weather conditions, Morocco’s crop is slashed
71 percent year-over-year to 1.0 million, and Turkey’s production is projected to fall 27 percent
to 5.4 million tons. Trade is forecast lower with weaker demand for China and Iran more than
offsetting stronger demand for Jordan, Morocco, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia.
Global sorghum production is forecast higher with larger crops in Ethiopia, Mexico, and Sudan
more than offsetting a smaller U.S. crop. Trade is forecast lower on the expectation of reduced
demand in China. However, future Chinese demand for sorghum, and for other imported
feedstuffs, remains highly uncertain as the country deals with massive corn stockpiles.
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
MMT Coarse Grain Trade Eases
0
25
50
75
100
125
2013/14 2014/45 2015/16 2016/17
China Accounts for Half of Global Corn Stocks
China Rest of World
MMT
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
23
HIGHLIGHTS FOR 2016/17
Selected Exporters
U.S. corn is projected to surge 5.5 million tons to 49.0 million on record supplies and
less competition from Brazil. The season-average farm price is projected down to a
range of $3.05 to $3.65/bushel, with the midpoint 25 cents lower than the 2015/16
forecast. U.S. sorghum is forecast down 1.9 million tons to 5.5 million with the
expectation of weaker demand from China, evidenced by the slow pace of new crop
sales.
Argentine corn is forecast 2.5 million tons higher to 22.5 million with a much larger
projected crop. Likewise, sorghum is boosted 150,000 tons to 1.2 million with the
expectation of a larger crop. However, barley is down 600,000 tons to 1.9 million based
on a smaller crop projection.
Brazilian corn is expected to plunge 11.5 million tons to 25.0 million on tightening
domestic supplies.
EU corn is projected to rise 1.6 million tons to 3.0 million while imports are down 2.0
million tons to 13.0 million with prospects for a larger crop. Barley is forecast down 1.1
million tons to 8.7 million reflecting weaker demand in China.
Serbian corn is up 500,000 tons to 2.2 million on prospects for a larger crop.
South African corn is forecast to climb 600,000 tons to 1.3 million with the export pace
likely to increase following next year’s harvest. A relatively marginal drop is expected
for imports, forecast at 2.5 million tons, as tight supplies drive import demand through
most of the year.
Ukrainian corn is forecast at 17.0 million tons, up 1.0 million from last year. Export
opportunities to China are less promising due partly to changes in China’s corn reserve
policies, which would encourage domestic corn use. Barley exports are projected to
shrink 300,000 tons to 3.2 million on smaller crop prospects.
Australian barley is forecast up 300,000 tons to 5.8 million tons on stronger demand
from the Middle East. Sorghum is expected to remains steady at 1.0 million tons.
Canadian barley is forecast down marginally to 1.4 million tons on account of strong
domestic feeding and lower demand from China.
Russian barley is forecast to grow 600,000 tons to 4.0 million with strong expected
demand from traditional markets in the Middle East.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
24
Selected Importers
Chinese corn is forecast lower at 1.0 million tons with expectations of greater use of
domestic feedstuffs. Prices for domestic corn have dropped sharply since last fall.
Furthermore, the government’s effort to reduce stocks by promoting domestic corn use
should erode demand for imported feedstuffs, including barley and sorghum. Barley
imports are projected down 1.5 million tons to 6.0 million, and sorghum is lowered 1.8
million tons to 5.0 million.
Egyptian corn is forecast to rise 500,000 tons to a record 8.8 million on continued
growth in feed demand.
Iranian corn is forecast up 500,000 tons to 5.5 million with growing feed demand.
Alternately, barley is forecast down 800,000 tons to 1.1 million with ample supplies and
favorable pasture conditions.
Japanese corn is forecast down 200,000 tons to 14.5 million based on slow demand from
the livestock sector. Barley and sorghum are forecast steady.
Mexican corn is up 1.5 million tons to a record 13.5 million on a smaller expected crop
and higher feed demand. Sorghum is unchanged at 700,000 tons.
South Korean corn is projected 500,000 tons higher to a record 10.5 million with
growth in feed demand from the swine sector more than offsetting reduced use in the
cattle sector, while poultry production remains steady.
Turkish corn is raised 600,000 tons to 1.5 million on a smaller expected crop as a result
of ongoing drought. Likewise, barley is up 350,000 tons to 400,000.
Vietnamese corn is projected down 900,000 tons to 6.0 million as growth in feed use is
expected to slow. Starting with 2013/14, the import series is revised to incorporate trade
data and increased residual disappearance.
Saudi barley is forecast up 500,000 tons to 9.5 million driven by strengthening demand
for feed with ongoing price supports and lower world barley prices.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
25
150
160
170
180
190
200
$/M
T
Corn Daily Export Bids
Argentina Up River Black Sea Brazil Paranagua US Gulf
OVERVIEW FOR 2015/16
World corn production is lower from last month reflecting reductions in Argentina and Brazil.
Global imports are higher with increases for Brazil and Vietnam more than offsetting a
reduction for China. Estimated changes for exporters are mostly offsetting, highlighted by
larger U.S. exports and cuts for Argentina and Brazil. The U.S. season-average farm price is
raised a nickel at the midpoint.
PRICES
During the period from the release of the April WASDE report into early May, quotes for U.S.
corn are up $5 to $169/ton, but now hold a considerable discount to other major exporters. The
price gap is mainly attributed to relatively large nearby supplies. Black Sea quotes surged to $19
to 185/ton in tandem with other exporters’ quotes and magnified by tight nearby supplies. For
the same period, Argentine quotes rose $12 to $177/ton as adverse weather disrupted the harvest.
Brazilian quotes reappeared in April and rose sharply with concerns over potential impact of hot
and dry conditions on the second crop, and are now just above Argentine price levels at
$179/ton. Recent Brazilian quotes are for August delivery, while the other exporters’ quotes are
current.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
26
TRADE CHANGES IN 2015/16
Selected Exporters
U.S. corn is raised 1.5 million tons to 43.5 million on robust sales and shipments and
relatively competitive prices.
Argentine corn is down 500,000 tons to 20.0 million on reduced production.
Brazilian corn is cut 1.0 million tons to 36.5 million on a smaller crop.
Indonesian corn is slashed 200,000 tons to 50,000 on trade to date and restrictions on
imports that make exports uncompetitive.
Ukrainian corn is up 300,000 tons to 16.0 million reflecting the pace to date.
EU barley is raised 800,000 tons to 9.8 million on a robust pace to date, particularly to
countries in the Middle East.
Selected Importers
Brazilian corn is boosted 500,000 tons to 1.0 million on tight domestic supplies.
Chinese corn is lowered 500,000 tons to 2.0 million on trade to date.
Vietnamese corn is raised 1.9 million tons to a record 6.9 million reflecting strong
demand for competitively priced imports mainly from South America. Starting 2013/14,
the import series is revised to incorporate trade data and increased residual
disappearance.
Saudi barley is up 500,000 tons to 9.0 million on larger-than-expected shipments from
the European Union.
U.S. oats is down 100,000 tons to 1.5 million on trade to date.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
World Coarse Grain Trade
October/September Year, Thousand Metric Tons
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
May
none
TY Exports
25,60523,55521,00316,63029,49722,308 Argentina
7,1756,8757,2907,0046,4117,279 Australia
25,03036,53521,95422,05926,07812,677 Brazil
4,4504,1503,5975,4824,6583,853 Canada
12,05511,58215,0677,8418,9437,177 European Union
2,3152,7153,0312,7182,8612,188 Paraguay
8,6107,6709,1557,0744,3665,996 Russia
2,2601,7403,0011,7996052,339 Serbia
1,3257257702,1272,4121,851 South Africa
20,33019,72024,20824,12515,52717,499 Ukraine
7,1307,4757,99911,21510,27910,121 Others
116,285122,742117,075108,074111,63793,288 Subtotal
54,83551,23556,34056,77220,58640,106 United States
171,120173,977173,415164,846132,223133,394 World Total
none
TY Imports
4,7754,7304,8634,9463,2893,741 Algeria
2,0502,0501,7071,6211,3271,523 Chile
12,20016,50025,69912,4455,6037,924 China
4,8404,8304,7474,7954,0904,103 Colombia
1,2251,2001,2021,0111,0461,054 Dominican Republic
8,8558,3307,9408,7755,0977,250 Egypt
13,35515,2959,14616,35511,7786,908 European Union
3,0003,1003,3813,5132,7191,724 Indonesia
6,6006,9008,1006,6004,8005,700 Iran
1,8101,7751,6032,0731,5641,562 Israel
16,52016,71516,72617,50117,74217,726 Japan
1,6751,4501,4591,6721,4061,311 Jordan
10,59010,09010,24510,4998,2657,726 Korea, South
1,5001,6001,6851,4931,220829 Libya
3,6003,5003,2383,4853,0483,356 Malaysia
14,47512,97511,57011,3127,62412,733 Mexico
2,8002,4002,2172,8581,8322,479 Morocco
2,8352,8252,8632,3362,4041,927 Peru
13,00512,51011,11511,33212,39010,485 Saudi Arabia
2,6502,92560723592565 South Africa
4,2004,3003,9494,3464,4134,491 Taiwan
1,9001,8001,5241,4491,6081,071 Tunisia
1,9059552,7191,9771,922782 Turkey
2,1001,9002,4332,6272,1542,596 Venezuela
6,0006,9006,7004,3001,6001,600 Vietnam
18,80119,00718,32516,84414,24815,948 Others
163,266166,562165,763156,400123,281127,114 Subtotal
4,6293,7554,3655,1242,4273,138 Unaccounted
3,2253,6603,2873,3226,5153,142 United States
171,120173,977173,415164,846132,223133,394 World Total
TY=Trade Year, see Endnotes.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
World Coarse Grains Production, Consumption, and Stocks
Local Marketing Years, Thousand Metric Tons
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
May
none
Production
41,88935,43435,73235,66537,24630,105 Argentina
12,36412,58011,65112,15811,41412,257 Australia
84,61383,46387,66882,60384,25375,884 Brazil
26,06525,66021,99228,74524,44522,921 Canada
225,700231,780222,750225,408212,192198,635 China
12,7509,98513,34613,07912,28612,264 Ethiopia
157,705151,247170,759159,212146,188150,116 European Union
41,70038,34043,08143,21639,91042,058 India
9,6009,4009,0009,1008,5008,850 Indonesia
31,22530,53932,68932,06528,88125,689 Mexico
18,50017,95019,01519,29218,57317,421 Nigeria
39,37537,42740,38635,73528,65833,077 Russia
13,5837,02511,11015,51812,87313,268 South Africa
11,57514,2759,42513,09010,59511,299 Turkey
34,92533,38739,38940,02229,52833,476 Ukraine
154,803152,760159,020148,085145,578146,749 Others
916,372891,252927,013912,993851,120834,069 Subtotal
382,256366,902377,234367,089285,311322,451 United States
1,298,6281,258,1541,304,2471,280,0821,136,4311,156,520 World Total
none
Domestic Consumption
15,43914,33114,23213,69512,05010,510 Argentina
61,92860,86860,02358,02855,80354,653 Brazil
22,53021,95321,28822,34720,33820,286 Canada
246,150239,425229,059223,546209,671196,192 China
16,00815,45314,80914,08012,91012,736 Egypt
160,495157,679162,500164,401153,341151,653 European Union
41,20039,75040,40037,60035,07537,650 India
13,52013,22012,02011,32010,52010,320 Iran
16,63116,79616,93317,57017,83018,040 Japan
44,66543,11542,07540,93536,19537,985 Mexico
18,50018,15018,95019,35018,70017,321 Nigeria
30,77530,14031,13928,61925,13427,728 Russia
13,62512,85012,02511,55010,9259,500 Saudi Arabia
13,68014,43013,05513,43013,00511,755 Turkey
14,43014,22515,43015,97714,66115,559 Ukraine
243,935238,470240,830227,917219,052216,871 Others
979,092942,707960,416927,489859,141866,753 Subtotal
323,043314,978311,347305,048275,537288,857 United States
1,302,1351,257,6851,271,7631,232,5371,134,6781,155,610 World Total
none
Ending Stocks
5,9266,2718,21114,2589,5604,822 Brazil
4,2244,0743,3424,6483,0243,390 Canada
102,549110,829102,01982,65168,37760,362 China
14,59316,08318,80515,56513,05515,744 European Union
6,7147,0747,2345,0944,6544,684 Iran
4,4944,2594,8603,4871,5421,771 Mexico
3,5203,9003,5003,9123,4153,235 Saudi Arabia
40,19341,57449,15247,65936,88440,462 Others
182,213194,064197,123177,274140,511134,470 Subtotal
58,82050,47646,94834,31323,53127,819 United States
241,033244,540244,071211,587164,042162,289 World Total
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
Regional Coarse Grains Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks
Thousand Metric Tons
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16
May
2016/17
TY Imports none
16,640 North America 14,661 15,348 16,567 17,735 18,765
2,769 Central America 2,470 2,923 3,460 3,675 3,610
2,156 Caribbean 2,327 2,330 2,444 2,485 2,560
11,967 South America 11,812 13,181 13,353 13,550 13,425
6,908 European Union - 28 11,778 16,355 9,146 15,295 13,355
1,028 Former Soviet Union - 12 728 807 730 685 705
23,548 Middle East 25,078 26,614 27,841 26,675 28,075
15,370 North Africa 13,046 19,521 18,229 18,860 19,830
3,326 Sub-Saharan Africa 2,742 3,632 4,483 7,096 6,820
38,049 East Asia 36,176 44,865 56,676 47,675 43,590
7,361 Southeast Asia 7,961 12,814 14,736 14,970 14,175
1,134 Others 1,017 1,332 1,385 1,521 1,581
130,256 Total 129,796 159,722 169,050 170,222 166,491
Production none
371,061 North America 338,637 427,899 431,915 423,101 439,546
119,602 South America 136,025 131,844 136,767 132,528 140,040
150,116 European Union - 28 146,188 159,212 170,759 151,247 157,705
9,497 Other Europe 6,570 8,813 10,649 8,946 9,973
78,648 Former Soviet Union - 12 68,222 87,758 91,599 82,505 86,731
20,412 Middle East 18,769 21,774 17,888 23,482 20,622
11,120 North Africa 10,155 11,556 11,073 12,521 10,056
99,274 Sub-Saharan Africa 103,534 102,584 108,311 92,806 103,950
200,771 East Asia 214,616 227,798 225,528 234,420 228,359
50,175 South Asia 47,642 51,986 51,827 46,894 50,528
28,379 Southeast Asia 29,158 31,003 31,088 31,983 33,398
12,813 Oceania 12,082 12,805 12,329 13,290 13,004
4,652 Others 4,833 5,050 4,514 4,431 4,716
1,156,520 Total 1,136,431 1,280,082 1,304,247 1,258,154 1,298,628
Domestic Consumption none
347,128 North America 332,070 368,330 374,710 380,046 390,238
86,793 South America 89,796 94,457 97,153 98,152 101,008
151,653 European Union - 28 153,341 164,401 162,500 157,679 160,495
8,375 Other Europe 7,100 7,707 8,036 8,252 8,292
54,374 Former Soviet Union - 12 50,225 55,686 58,148 55,818 57,076
41,186 Middle East 43,027 45,892 45,678 49,507 49,737
25,266 North Africa 24,941 27,987 30,177 31,154 31,338
97,685 Sub-Saharan Africa 103,220 102,314 110,043 101,595 104,620
228,767 East Asia 242,831 257,690 262,977 273,087 280,107
45,706 South Asia 42,704 46,167 49,321 48,950 50,684
34,609 Southeast Asia 35,787 38,943 41,558 45,155 46,416
6,518 Oceania 6,132 5,764 5,571 5,849 5,724
9,556 Others 9,573 10,075 10,243 10,589 10,819
1,137,616 Total 1,140,747 1,225,413 1,256,115 1,265,833 1,296,554
Ending Stocks none
32,980 North America 28,097 42,448 55,150 58,809 67,538
9,645 South America 15,559 21,344 14,567 12,425 12,007
15,744 European Union - 28 13,055 15,565 18,805 16,083 14,593
1,029 Other Europe 631 751 1,064 875 1,193
6,125 Former Soviet Union - 12 4,983 7,029 7,435 4,922 5,087
10,606 Middle East 10,118 11,911 12,873 13,503 12,393
5,513 North Africa 3,553 5,666 5,514 5,601 4,339
9,229 Sub-Saharan Africa 9,049 9,559 11,102 7,702 8,657
63,851 East Asia 71,678 86,663 105,873 114,786 106,598
2,686 South Asia 2,408 4,099 5,306 3,126 2,806
3,116 Southeast Asia 3,230 4,472 4,465 4,478 3,400
977 Oceania 912 1,130 950 1,296 1,446
788 Others 769 950 967 934 976
162,289 Total 164,042 211,587 244,071 244,540 241,033
NOTES: Regional definitions appear on last page of this circular. Imports are reported on a trade year basis. All other data are
reported using local marketing years.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
World Corn Trade
October/September Year, Thousand Metric Tons
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
May
none
TY Exports
22,50020,00018,44812,84622,78916,501 Argentina
25,00036,50021,90922,04126,04412,674 Brazil
950900850700550200 Burma
1,2001,0003951,9391,813494 Canada
3,0001,4004,0262,4042,1943,287 European Union
2,3002,7003,0122,7142,8582,188 Paraguay
4,5004,2003,2134,1941,9172,027 Russia
2,2001,7002,9641,7805782,325 Serbia
1,3007007462,1042,3981,831 South Africa
17,00016,00019,66120,00412,72615,208 Ukraine
4,8255,2905,9719,0138,4178,637 Others
84,77590,39081,19579,73982,28465,372 Subtotal
49,00043,50046,77350,68418,26238,342 United States
133,775133,890127,968130,423100,546103,714 World Total
none
TY Imports
4,1004,1004,1164,1562,9183,231 Algeria
1,0001,0001,533678492748 Canada
1,8001,8001,5161,456844906 Chile
1,0002,0005,5163,2772,7025,231 China
4,5004,5004,4964,4363,2663,209 Colombia
1,2251,2001,2021,0111,0461,054 Dominican Republic
8,7508,2507,8418,7265,0597,154 Egypt
13,00015,0008,64616,01411,3626,113 European Union
1,0001,000881767678691 Guatemala
3,0003,1003,3813,5132,7191,724 Indonesia
5,5005,0006,2005,5003,7004,000 Iran
1,5001,5001,2961,6521,2241,253 Israel
14,50014,70014,65715,12114,41114,888 Japan
10,50010,00010,16810,4068,1747,636 Korea, South
3,6003,5003,2383,4853,0483,356 Malaysia
13,50012,00011,26910,9495,67611,086 Mexico
2,3002,1001,9412,3491,6841,943 Morocco
2,7002,7002,7412,2322,2541,772 Peru
3,5003,5002,9042,6842,0631,816 Saudi Arabia
2,5002,700469790424 South Africa
4,1004,2003,8214,1794,2414,354 Taiwan
1,2001,2001,041993846853 Tunisia
1,5009002,3771,3811,656729 Turkey
2,1001,9002,4332,6262,1542,596 Venezuela
6,0006,9006,7004,3001,6001,600 Vietnam
15,30015,19614,28713,98911,04812,422 Others
129,675129,946124,670125,95994,865100,789 Subtotal
3,1002,5442,4893,7371,4162,160 Unaccounted
1,0001,4008097274,265765 United States
133,775133,890127,968130,423100,546103,714 World Total
TY=Trade Year, see Endnotes.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
World Corn Production, Consumption, and Stocks
Local Marketing Years, Thousand Metric Tons
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
May
none
Production
34,00027,00028,70026,00027,00021,000 Argentina
82,00081,00085,00080,00081,50073,000 Brazil
13,75013,60011,48714,19413,06011,359 Canada
218,000224,580215,646218,490205,614192,780 China
6,3005,0506,5806,4926,1586,069 Ethiopia
64,27557,97975,77964,93159,14268,316 European Union
23,00021,00024,17024,25922,25821,759 India
9,6009,4009,0009,1008,5008,850 Indonesia
23,50024,00025,48022,88021,59118,726 Mexico
7,2007,0007,5157,7007,6309,250 Nigeria
8,0007,5007,6717,5327,2617,130 Philippines
14,00013,16811,32511,6358,2136,962 Russia
7,0006,0007,7005,9003,7506,400 Serbia
13,0006,50010,62914,92512,36512,759 South Africa
26,00023,33328,45030,90020,92222,838 Ukraine
94,90496,25997,23994,58091,57989,795 Others
644,529623,369652,371639,518596,543576,993 Subtotal
366,539345,486361,091351,272273,192312,789 United States
1,011,068968,8551,013,462990,790869,735889,782 World Total
none
Total Consumption
10,4009,3009,3008,8007,9007,000 Argentina
59,00058,00057,00055,00052,50051,500 Brazil
13,60013,40012,82012,67511,60411,637 Canada
227,000217,500202,000208,000200,000188,000 China
15,05014,50013,90013,20012,00011,700 Egypt
75,30074,01477,88076,79669,84669,693 European Union
22,80022,10022,30019,60017,50017,200 India
13,00012,80012,20011,90010,90010,500 Indonesia
14,40014,60014,60015,00014,30014,950 Japan
10,55010,10010,2509,8918,4817,815 Korea, South
36,05035,50034,45031,70027,00029,000 Mexico
8,8008,7008,5008,0007,4007,400 Philippines
9,5008,9008,1007,5006,4004,700 Russia
11,30011,00011,80011,50011,00010,700 South Africa
12,50011,9009,4007,7006,4006,000 Vietnam
158,058156,622157,787152,582143,094142,643 Others
701,494667,610678,943655,904601,804607,075 Subtotal
310,403301,252301,854292,965262,973277,961 United States
1,011,897968,862980,797948,869864,777885,036 World Total
none
Ending Stocks
2,2191,6141,9091,4081,308896 Argentina
5,5425,9427,84213,9729,1504,212 Brazil
101,504109,524100,46481,31567,57059,335 China
5,9506,9759,4106,8915,1466,682 European Union
5,2965,4565,8164,4763,2363,336 Iran
1,8641,8351,8601,8601,2651,489 Korea, South
3,7683,6184,1182,6039751,230 Mexico
26,21927,11732,48331,39423,78126,030 Others
152,362162,081163,902143,919112,431103,210 Subtotal
54,67845,78843,97431,29220,85925,122 United States
207,040207,869207,876175,211133,290128,332 World Total
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
Regional Corn Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks
Thousand Metric Tons
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16
May
2016/17
TY Imports none
12,599 North America 10,433 12,354 13,611 14,400 15,500
2,766 Central America 2,470 2,922 3,460 3,675 3,610
9,886 South America 9,651 12,027 12,040 12,195 12,050
6,113 European Union - 28 11,362 16,014 8,646 15,000 13,000
319 Former Soviet Union - 12 322 448 498 425 420
10,886 Middle East 10,944 13,812 15,338 13,550 14,675
13,827 North Africa 11,154 17,036 15,623 16,350 17,050
2,657 Sub-Saharan Africa 2,092 2,939 3,772 6,231 6,235
32,291 East Asia 29,681 33,057 34,219 30,970 30,180
7,348 Southeast Asia 7,943 12,768 14,722 14,955 14,160
2,156 Caribbean 2,327 2,330 2,444 2,485 2,560
706 Others 751 979 1,106 1,110 1,235
101,554 Total 99,130 126,686 125,479 131,346 130,675
Production none
342,874 North America 307,843 388,346 398,058 383,086 403,789
105,578 South America 120,997 117,456 125,140 119,525 127,395
68,316 European Union - 28 59,142 64,931 75,779 57,979 64,275
7,810 Other Europe 4,915 7,210 8,945 7,176 8,179
34,121 Former Soviet Union - 12 32,310 46,916 43,801 40,145 44,160
7,164 Middle East 7,480 8,158 7,838 9,228 8,508
5,722 North Africa 5,919 5,898 6,161 6,201 6,201
61,919 Sub-Saharan Africa 60,522 63,493 62,400 53,883 59,628
194,585 East Asia 207,737 220,583 218,095 226,928 220,358
28,646 South Asia 28,857 31,865 31,740 28,370 30,570
3,602 Central America 3,743 3,893 3,366 3,300 3,560
28,138 Southeast Asia 28,893 30,721 30,794 31,688 33,108
1,307 Others 1,377 1,320 1,345 1,346 1,337
889,782 Total 869,735 990,790 1,013,462 968,855 1,011,068
Domestic Consumption none
318,598 North America 301,577 337,340 349,124 350,152 360,053
76,391 South America 78,981 83,641 86,531 87,395 90,105
69,693 European Union - 28 69,846 76,796 77,880 74,014 75,300
6,392 Other Europe 5,194 5,847 6,122 6,285 6,290
16,416 Former Soviet Union - 12 18,080 21,130 21,482 21,175 22,265
17,585 Middle East 18,710 19,785 21,810 22,785 23,485
18,000 North Africa 18,450 20,800 22,100 22,900 23,675
60,204 Sub-Saharan Africa 60,006 62,418 64,055 61,212 60,088
217,097 East Asia 229,234 239,185 233,237 248,645 258,405
23,975 South Asia 23,980 26,982 30,007 29,970 30,970
34,354 Southeast Asia 35,509 38,654 41,224 44,850 46,110
6,350 Central America 6,175 6,650 6,690 6,920 7,100
3,344 Others 3,556 3,581 3,879 3,885 3,865
868,399 Total 869,298 942,809 964,141 980,188 1,007,711
Ending Stocks none
27,717 North America 23,383 35,495 49,494 51,008 59,998
8,290 South America 13,628 18,932 12,514 10,419 10,289
6,682 European Union - 28 5,146 6,891 9,410 6,975 5,950
779 Other Europe 384 505 860 661 990
2,385 Former Soviet Union - 12 1,948 3,368 3,023 2,008 2,358
4,568 Middle East 4,286 6,035 7,300 7,048 6,601
3,028 North Africa 1,771 3,117 3,306 2,897 2,463
7,029 Sub-Saharan Africa 6,589 7,534 8,601 5,948 6,748
62,300 East Asia 70,378 84,856 103,925 113,158 105,271
1,638 South Asia 1,744 3,005 3,940 2,265 1,935
3,113 Southeast Asia 3,225 4,466 4,459 4,472 3,400
503 Central America 474 610 587 617 667
300 Others 334 397 457 393 370
128,332 Total 133,290 175,211 207,876 207,869 207,040
NOTES: Regional definitions appear on last page of this circular. Imports are reported on a trade year basis. All other data are
reported using local marketing years.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
World Barley Trade
October/September Year, Thousand Metric Tons
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
May
none
TY Exports
1,9002,5001,5992,8293,6473,631 Argentina
5,8005,5005,2666,2614,6225,819 Australia
1,4001,4501,3841,7141,3161,437 Canada
8,7009,80010,6424,9266,5013,646 European Union
2001509754654652 India
700800476501151659 Kazakhstan
4,0003,4005,8072,7912,3663,667 Russia
604037182614 Serbia
3,2003,5004,3323,8272,6592,167 Ukraine
502543361070 Uruguay
75651294258126 Others
26,08527,23029,81223,49121,99921,218 Subtotal
300300292336163179 United States
26,38527,53030,10423,82722,16221,397 World Total
none
TY Imports
650600723778364501 Algeria
100100103781449 Azerbaijan
400400489337369274 Brazil
6,0007,5009,8594,8912,1832,541 China
285275249253232301 Colombia
1,1001,9001,9001,1001,1001,700 Iran
275250278304244276 Israel
1,1001,1001,0971,2941,3561,257 Japan
1,000800759997831736 Jordan
400400412436388376 Kuwait
8009001,001681573183 Libya
17517518610847144 Mexico
500300276471148536 Morocco
1101001228710397 Peru
9,5009,0008,2008,50010,2008,600 Saudi Arabia
200100100100300200 Syria
700600483456762218 Tunisia
4005033259626646 Turkey
400500367468541524 United Arab Emirates
17517518912625277 Uruguay
1,0561,0411,3189799401,765 Others
25,32626,26628,44323,04021,21320,401 Subtotal
6598141,231265518526 Unaccounted
400450430522431470 United States
26,38527,53030,10423,82722,16221,397 World Total
TY=Trade Year, see Endnotes.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
World Barley Production, Consumption, and Stocks
Local Marketing Years, Thousand Metric Tons
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
May
none
Production
1,3001,3001,3001,5001,5001,350 Algeria
3,4004,2002,9004,7505,0004,500 Argentina
8,5008,7008,0149,1747,4728,221 Australia
2,1002,0001,9881,6741,9171,979 Belarus
8,5008,2257,11910,2378,0127,892 Canada
2,0001,8001,8101,7001,6261,637 China
2,0501,9502,0301,9081,7821,592 Ethiopia
60,67761,34960,61559,67454,87551,883 European Union
1,7001,6101,8311,7521,6191,663 India
3,8003,8003,2002,8002,7702,900 Iran
1,1001,0501,0009445001,000 Iraq
2,7002,6752,4122,5391,5002,593 Kazakhstan
17,75017,08320,02615,38913,95216,938 Russia
5,4007,4004,0007,3005,5007,000 Turkey
7,8008,7519,4507,5616,9359,098 Ukraine
8,74411,3599,52210,6679,0559,712 Others
137,521143,252137,217139,569124,015129,958 Subtotal
4,2024,6663,9534,7194,7683,370 United States
141,723147,918141,170144,288128,783133,328 World Total
none
Total Consumption
2,0502,0502,0502,0502,0001,800 Algeria
2,6002,6002,9002,8003,0003,300 Australia
2,1002,0002,0001,8002,0002,100 Belarus
6,9506,6006,4727,7206,8096,916 Canada
8,1009,40011,6006,3004,0003,800 China
2,0252,0252,0251,9251,7251,600 Ethiopia
52,40050,90050,90053,40051,00051,200 European Union
1,5501,4501,4001,2001,5251,550 India
5,3005,3004,6004,5004,3004,100 Iran
2,0502,0002,0002,0001,3751,825 Kazakhstan
2,4503,0002,7002,3001,9003,100 Morocco
13,80013,90014,10012,70012,10014,300 Russia
9,8259,2258,5258,6258,3257,225 Saudi Arabia
5,9006,9005,3506,9506,2006,750 Turkey
4,7004,7004,7005,0005,1006,300 Ukraine
17,08917,29016,80216,98015,52415,209 Others
139,268141,665137,254136,022126,429130,814 Subtotal
4,4194,4134,2344,7754,6384,170 United States
143,687146,078141,488140,797131,067134,984 World Total
none
Ending Stocks
1,1041,2041,3041,1781,2171,458 Algeria
988888588693536548 Australia
1,7571,5571,2171,9509831,195 Canada
6,3036,6265,8775,6215,0446,069 European Union
1,4181,6181,4186181,4181,348 Iran
3,0513,3663,0813,3963,0062,814 Saudi Arabia
9261,0211,2659718721,171 Ukraine
5,8706,9927,0877,6485,5496,750 Others
21,41723,27221,83722,07518,62521,353 Subtotal
2,0072,1161,7111,7911,7501,306 United States
23,42425,38823,54823,86620,37522,659 World Total
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
Regional Barley Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks
Thousand Metric Tons
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16
May
2016/17
TY Imports none
620 North America 499 639 781 715 625
851 South America 1,064 886 1,169 1,085 1,105
364 European Union - 28 53 58 269 100 100
207 Other Europe 126 163 120 160 155
696 Former Soviet Union - 12 378 352 226 255 280
12,543 Middle East 13,906 12,537 12,453 13,085 13,355
1,480 North Africa 1,884 2,432 2,581 2,475 2,750
100 Sub-Saharan Africa 52 116 138 90 90
3,924 East Asia 3,668 6,320 11,080 8,725 7,225
67 South Asia 6 13 24 16 16
19 Oceania 8 46 32 10 25
20,871 Total 21,644 23,562 28,873 26,716 25,726
Production none
11,749 North America 13,812 15,550 11,918 13,643 13,437
5,507 South America 5,884 5,737 3,769 5,173 4,380
51,883 European Union - 28 54,875 59,674 60,615 61,349 60,677
1,189 Other Europe 1,188 1,151 1,223 1,287 1,307
32,227 Former Soviet Union - 12 25,958 29,162 35,565 32,359 32,250
11,705 Middle East 9,689 12,047 8,653 12,858 10,718
4,388 North Africa 3,307 4,748 4,010 5,399 2,925
2,099 Sub-Saharan Africa 2,283 2,376 2,523 2,497 2,600
1,962 East Asia 1,920 1,991 2,134 2,088 2,297
2,081 South Asia 1,956 2,261 2,340 2,113 2,232
8,538 Oceania 7,911 9,591 8,420 9,152 8,900
133,328 Total 128,783 144,288 141,170 147,918 141,723
Domestic Consumption none
11,786 North America 12,347 13,245 11,556 11,938 12,294
3,052 South America 3,152 3,528 3,403 3,660 3,553
51,200 European Union - 28 51,000 53,400 50,900 50,900 52,400
1,366 Other Europe 1,298 1,298 1,354 1,389 1,409
26,268 Former Soviet Union - 12 22,339 23,460 24,724 24,655 24,690
22,016 Middle East 22,435 24,410 22,250 25,271 24,816
6,186 North Africa 5,560 6,230 7,159 7,303 6,708
2,133 Sub-Saharan Africa 2,285 2,480 2,555 2,638 2,640
5,580 East Asia 5,812 8,009 13,192 10,980 9,660
2,008 South Asia 1,868 1,715 1,915 1,969 2,088
3,650 Oceania 3,425 3,250 3,350 3,050 3,050
135,245 Total 131,521 141,025 142,358 143,753 143,308
Ending Stocks none
2,621 North America 3,014 3,974 3,326 4,073 4,149
544 South America 657 816 711 766 748
6,069 European Union - 28 5,044 5,621 5,877 6,626 6,303
202 Other Europe 220 205 166 176 171
2,760 Former Soviet Union - 12 2,194 2,605 3,406 2,190 2,050
5,940 Middle East 5,736 5,788 5,514 6,411 5,743
2,424 North Africa 1,715 2,480 2,138 2,629 1,796
283 Sub-Saharan Africa 330 338 442 389 439
961 East Asia 736 1,038 1,060 893 755
280 South Asia 141 253 266 281 241
575 Oceania 588 748 642 954 1,029
22,659 Total 20,375 23,866 23,548 25,388 23,424
NOTES: Regional definitions appear on last page of this circular. Imports are reported on a trade year basis. All other data are
reported using local marketing years.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
World Sorghum Trade
October/September Year, Thousand Metric Tons
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
May
none
TY Exports
1,2001,0509549533,0592,163 Argentina
1,0001,0001,6994051,4251,185 Australia
2530131120 Brazil
252575757575 Ethiopia
1005012188231131 India
10050100505075 Nigeria
50130156229124113 Ukraine
140152170217191157 Others
2,6402,4873,2882,0285,1573,899 Subtotal
5,5007,4009,2495,7172,1361,549 United States
8,1409,88712,5377,7457,2935,448 World Total
none
TY Imports
15015098109404544 Chile
5,0006,80010,1624,16163184 China
50500104591592 Colombia
5015075505030 Ethiopia
150120131184291126 European Union
8508509031,0031,8971,481 Japan
100100799410274 Kenya
700700291621,7931,369 Mexico
5013032141011 Pakistan
50100100125613 South Sudan
375510403752841766 Others
7,5259,66012,0126,7586,6165,090 Subtotal
590117498984434355 Unaccounted
251102732433 United States
8,1409,88712,5377,7457,2935,448 World Total
TY=Trade Year, see Endnotes.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
World Sorghum Production, Consumption, and Stocks
Local Marketing Years, Thousand Metric Tons
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
May
none
Production
3,9003,6003,5004,4004,7004,200 Argentina
2,2002,1002,1041,2822,2302,239 Australia
2,0001,8502,0551,8902,1022,222 Brazil
1,8001,6711,7081,8801,9241,500 Burkina
1,1501,1501,1501,1501,1001,150 Cameroon
9008179007451,172648 Chad
3,2003,0002,8852,8922,5562,051 China
3,7002,6004,0003,8293,6043,951 Ethiopia
5,5005,0505,4505,5425,2815,979 India
1,3001,3001,2728201,2121,191 Mali
6,9005,7006,2708,5006,1746,425 Mexico
1,3001,3001,4261,3201,376807 Niger
6,5006,1506,7006,5925,9436,900 Nigeria
900900990680650480 South Sudan
5,5002,3886,2812,2494,5244,605 Sudan
6,9026,9247,2427,2066,7687,439 Others
53,65246,50053,93350,97751,31651,787 Subtotal
10,33815,15810,9889,9666,2935,410 United States
63,99061,65864,92160,94357,60957,197 World Total
none
Total Consumption
2,9502,8002,8002,7002,3001,900 Argentina
1,1051,1055059051,1051,105 Australia
1,9001,8502,0002,0002,3002,175 Brazil
1,8001,7001,7001,9001,8501,550 Burkina
1,1751,1751,1751,1651,1101,175 Cameroon
8,3009,90012,9006,8003,2002,200 China
3,6502,9004,1003,9003,7003,700 Ethiopia
920890995880795760 European Union
5,4505,3005,1005,2005,1506,000 India
1,3001,3001,2009501,2001,300 Mali
7,5006,5006,6008,3008,1008,100 Mexico
1,3001,4001,4501,3001,200950 Niger
6,4006,0506,6506,5505,9006,800 Nigeria
1,0001,0001,050750650480 South Sudan
5,5002,9006,0002,5504,7004,500 Sudan
8,3118,3378,7088,65110,60710,414 Others
59,36455,76162,76555,56852,66754,592 Subtotal
5,0806,0972,4294,1274,7963,916 United States
64,44461,85865,19459,69557,46358,508 World Total
none
Ending Stocks
5218719711,202781164 Argentina
226131136187195230 Australia
238163193151272472 Brazil
471581706568326366 China
243293593364109206 India
338238338647285418 Mexico
376331723357588609 Sudan
1,3551,3091,6441,7051,8561,603 Others
3,7683,9175,3045,1814,4124,068 Subtotal
1,3501,655468864385583 United States
5,1185,5725,7726,0454,7974,651 World Total
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
Regional Sorghum Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks
Thousand Metric Tons
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16
May
2016/17
TY Imports none
1,372 North America 2,036 165 56 810 725
1,199 South America 1,071 239 114 240 240
126 European Union - 28 291 184 131 120 150
0 Other Europe 0 0 0 0 0
101 Middle East 194 232 22 20 15
54 North Africa 1 41 1 5 5
558 Sub-Saharan Africa 587 558 527 725 445
1,655 East Asia 2,650 5,281 11,142 7,705 5,905
13 Southeast Asia 18 46 14 15 15
15 Others 11 15 32 130 50
5,093 Total 6,859 6,761 12,039 9,770 7,550
Production none
11,835 North America 12,467 18,466 17,258 20,858 17,238
312 Central America 339 335 335 335 335
92 Caribbean 92 94 94 94 94
7,247 South America 7,495 7,081 6,404 6,292 6,777
671 European Union - 28 473 703 883 769 775
764 Middle East 814 789 691 635 635
847 North Africa 763 754 755 755 755
24,790 Sub-Saharan Africa 24,708 22,472 27,678 21,377 26,199
2,054 East Asia 2,560 2,895 2,887 3,002 3,202
6,116 South Asia 5,404 5,661 5,553 5,195 5,630
54 Southeast Asia 55 57 55 55 50
2,239 Oceania 2,230 1,282 2,104 2,100 2,200
176 Others 209 354 224 191 100
57,197 Total 57,609 60,943 64,921 61,658 63,990
Domestic Consumption none
12,016 North America 12,896 12,427 9,029 12,597 12,580
320 Central America 325 325 330 340 335
92 Caribbean 92 94 94 94 94
6,104 South America 6,076 5,749 5,804 5,637 5,907
760 European Union - 28 795 880 995 890 920
789 Middle East 1,052 894 864 670 645
908 North Africa 756 793 755 755 755
24,889 Sub-Saharan Africa 24,914 23,137 27,670 22,641 26,319
3,771 East Asia 5,221 7,951 13,911 10,760 9,210
6,148 South Asia 5,283 5,334 5,235 5,575 5,630
68 Southeast Asia 68 64 95 65 66
1,105 Oceania 1,105 905 505 1,105 1,105
55 Others 80 75 75 75 75
57,025 Total 58,663 58,628 65,362 61,204 63,641
Ending Stocks none
1,001 North America 670 1,511 806 1,893 1,688
23 Central America 30 33 38 28 23
718 South America 1,146 1,467 1,237 1,112 852
13 European Union - 28 5 18 23 17 17
56 Middle East 65 47 39 24 29
60 North Africa 66 68 69 74 79
1,876 Sub-Saharan Africa 2,073 1,647 2,026 1,337 1,442
451 East Asia 413 627 736 608 495
206 South Asia 109 364 593 293 243
230 Oceania 195 187 136 131 226
17 Others 25 76 69 55 24
4,651 Total 4,797 6,045 5,772 5,572 5,118
NOTES: Regional definitions appear on last page of this circular. Imports are reported on a trade year basis. All other data are
reported using local marketing years.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
World Oats Trade
October/September Year, Thousand Metric Tons
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
May
none
TY Exports
5522213 Argentina
300300270270240174 Australia
1,7001,6001,7291,7321,3511,763 Canada
7575844941106 Chile
200230231291126176 European Union
1020146418 Russia
707046622 Ukraine
1010814107 Others
2,3702,3102,3842,3701,7762,259 Subtotal
303023291828 United States
2,4002,3402,4072,3991,7942,287 World Total
none
TY Imports
553000 Albania
2530241279 Algeria
554323 Bosnia and Herzegovina
15101227911 Canada
2002001621168768 China
552211 Colombia
202021211922 Ecuador
554343 European Union
505047465154 Japan
1001008693108134 Mexico
10102383649 Norway
552222 Serbia
505046191111 South Africa
505049514456 Switzerland
554004 Turkey
5588615 Others
555555476441387442 Subtotal
2452851729252115 Unaccounted
1,6001,5001,7591,8661,3551,730 United States
2,4002,3402,4072,3991,7942,287 World Total
TY=Trade Year, see Endnotes.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
World Oats Production, Consumption, and Stocks
Local Marketing Years, Thousand Metric Tons
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
May
none
Production
11011011011011067 Algeria
500553525445496345 Argentina
1,2001,3001,0871,2551,1211,262 Australia
400400522352422448 Belarus
350350350380361354 Brazil
3,3003,4302,9793,9062,8303,158 Canada
475470421610680451 Chile
600600600580600600 China
7,9107,5247,8548,3807,9097,927 European Union
275244226305200258 Kazakhstan
908793918451 Mexico
240236236214232231 Norway
4,5004,5275,2674,9324,0275,332 Russia
210210210210210218 Turkey
500498610467630506 Ukraine
343349296318315372 Others
21,00320,88821,38622,55520,22721,580 Subtotal
9871,3001,019938892728 United States
21,99022,18822,40523,49321,11922,308 World Total
none
Total Consumption
13514012611811975 Algeria
500550525425500350 Argentina
9009508759509251,100 Australia
400400500375400450 Belarus
350340345375350350 Brazil
1,6501,6501,6731,6601,5921,361 Canada
400375355570600400 Chile
850825750700675625 China
7,6507,5757,6758,0757,7007,800 European Union
270245225275225225 Kazakhstan
190190175185195185 Mexico
255245245245295270 Norway
4,5004,6005,2004,9004,3005,000 Russia
215215215215215215 Turkey
430430600475600500 Ukraine
538544471491451519 Others
19,44019,50719,97520,25419,21719,589 Subtotal
2,6962,7352,4242,7572,7432,499 United States
22,13622,24222,39923,01121,96022,088 World Total
none
Ending Stocks
586365674955 Argentina
1071075710560134 Australia
8368716811,054446805 Canada
474727456125 Chile
72122147135139127 China
647582858894901795 European Union
186196289230203485 Russia
177187192201222226 Others
2,1302,1752,3162,7312,0812,652 Subtotal
766867780359527797 United States
2,8963,0423,0963,0902,6083,449 World Total
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
Regional Oats Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks
Thousand Metric Tons
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16
May
2016/17
TY Imports none
1,875 North America 1,472 1,986 1,857 1,610 1,715
31 South America 26 29 30 30 30
3 European Union - 28 4 3 4 5 5
110 Other Europe 84 94 60 75 75
7 Former Soviet Union - 12 0 2 1 0 0
4 Middle East 0 0 4 5 5
9 North Africa 7 12 24 30 25
11 Sub-Saharan Africa 11 19 46 50 50
122 East Asia 138 162 209 250 250
0 Oceania 0 0 0 0 0
2,172 Total 1,742 2,307 2,235 2,055 2,155
Production none
3,937 North America 3,806 4,935 4,091 4,817 4,377
1,191 South America 1,577 1,478 1,324 1,434 1,376
7,927 European Union - 28 7,909 8,380 7,854 7,524 7,910
373 Other Europe 365 348 369 372 375
6,549 Former Soviet Union - 12 5,285 6,062 6,631 5,675 5,681
218 Middle East 210 210 210 210 210
163 North Africa 166 156 147 166 175
57 Sub-Saharan Africa 60 59 55 55 55
602 East Asia 602 582 602 601 601
1,291 Oceania 1,139 1,283 1,122 1,334 1,230
22,308 Total 21,119 23,493 22,405 22,188 21,990
Domestic Consumption none
4,045 North America 4,530 4,602 4,272 4,575 4,536
1,167 South America 1,515 1,447 1,285 1,356 1,331
7,800 European Union - 28 7,700 8,075 7,675 7,575 7,650
478 Other Europe 474 434 434 447 456
6,180 Former Soviet Union - 12 5,531 6,031 6,531 5,681 5,606
215 Middle East 215 215 215 215 215
172 North Africa 175 164 163 196 200
53 Sub-Saharan Africa 72 95 94 105 105
685 East Asia 730 750 800 875 900
1,129 Oceania 943 978 910 984 930
21,924 Total 21,885 22,791 22,379 22,009 21,929
Ending Stocks none
1,605 North America 974 1,417 1,467 1,741 1,605
93 South America 128 129 105 128 118
795 European Union - 28 901 894 858 582 647
48 Other Europe 27 41 38 38 32
592 Former Soviet Union - 12 332 346 397 296 286
18 Middle East 13 8 6 6 6
1 North Africa 1 1 1 1 1
29 Sub-Saharan Africa 28 11 18 18 18
134 East Asia 144 138 149 125 76
134 Oceania 60 105 57 107 107
3,449 Total 2,608 3,090 3,096 3,042 2,896
NOTES: Regional definitions appear on last page of this circular. Imports are reported on a trade year basis. All other data are
reported using local marketing years.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
World Rye Trade
October/September Year, Thousand Metric Tons
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
May
none
TY Exports
55552525 Belarus
1501008997178159 Canada
15015016720112259 European Union
100501218379284 Russia
10201359169 Ukraine
001114 Others
415325396446421540 Subtotal
553678 United States
420330399452428548 World Total
none
TY Imports
10070969668302 European Union
251518333411 Israel
201522372746 Japan
1010481211 Korea, South
20155162111 Norway
5555250 Russia
556692 Switzerland
006149 Others
185135162202200392 Subtotal
35-5-25467-18 Unaccounted
200200262204221174 United States
420330399452428548 World Total
TY=Trade Year, see Endnotes.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
World Rye Production, Consumption, and Stocks
Local Marketing Years, Thousand Metric Tons
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
May
none
Production
756197524045 Argentina
8008008676481,082801 Belarus
325225218223337241 Canada
8,0607,8168,86810,1518,7636,900 European Union
2,5002,0843,2793,3602,1322,967 Russia
350350300365370366 Turkey
350394475638676579 Ukraine
138121144126146137 Others
12,59811,85114,24815,56313,54612,036 Subtotal
190292183194166154 United States
12,78812,14314,43115,75713,71212,190 World Total
none
Total Consumption
756197524045 Argentina
252219194040 Australia
8508008506501,000750 Belarus
140123134107127101 Canada
8,2008,1008,6009,6508,7007,400 European Union
503765405030 Kazakhstan
322720282627 Norway
2,3502,1753,2503,1002,0002,850 Russia
350350325350375375 Turkey
350400475625625625 Ukraine
11296102140132132 Others
12,54012,15713,94714,76613,14612,346 Subtotal
445481406424387311 United States
12,98512,63814,35315,19013,53312,657 World Total
none
Ending Stocks
112167172160167110 Belarus
794442444625 Canada
8361,0261,3901,204795747 European Union
444833 Kazakhstan
183128264344153129 Russia
141414331824 Turkey
7080106128166132 Ukraine
123475 Others
1,2991,4651,9951,9251,3551,175 Subtotal
19501571011 United States
1,3181,5152,0101,9321,3651,186 World Total
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
Regional Rye Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks
Thousand Metric Tons
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16
May
2016/17
TY Imports none
174 North America 221 204 262 200 200
0 South America 0 0 0 0 0
302 European Union - 28 68 96 96 70 100
14 Other Europe 32 23 11 20 25
5 Former Soviet Union - 12 27 5 5 5 5
14 Middle East 34 33 24 15 25
0 Sub-Saharan Africa 0 0 0 0 0
57 East Asia 39 45 26 25 30
0 Oceania 0 0 0 0 0
566 Total 421 406 424 335 385
Production none
395 North America 503 417 401 517 515
49 South America 47 59 105 69 83
6,900 European Union - 28 8,763 10,151 8,868 7,816 8,060
62 Other Europe 46 53 52 51 52
4,375 Former Soviet Union - 12 3,940 4,689 4,682 3,315 3,700
366 Middle East 370 365 300 350 350
3 Sub-Saharan Africa 3 3 3 3 3
0 East Asia 0 0 0 0 0
40 Oceania 40 20 20 22 25
12,190 Total 13,712 15,757 14,431 12,143 12,788
Domestic Consumption none
412 North America 514 531 540 604 585
49 South America 47 59 105 69 83
7,400 European Union - 28 8,700 9,650 8,600 8,100 8,200
76 Other Europe 78 77 66 71 77
4,255 Former Soviet Union - 12 3,675 4,415 4,640 3,412 3,600
386 Middle East 409 383 343 365 375
2 Sub-Saharan Africa 2 3 3 3 3
66 East Asia 37 48 27 26 31
40 Oceania 40 19 19 22 25
12,686 Total 13,502 15,185 14,343 12,672 12,979
Ending Stocks none
36 North America 56 51 57 94 98
0 South America 0 0 0 0 0
747 European Union - 28 795 1,204 1,390 1,026 836
0 Other Europe 0 0 0 0 0
374 Former Soviet Union - 12 489 640 546 379 369
24 Middle East 18 33 14 14 14
0 Sub-Saharan Africa 0 0 0 0 0
5 East Asia 7 4 3 2 1
0 Oceania 0 0 0 0 0
1,186 Total 1,365 1,932 2,010 1,515 1,318
NOTES: Regional definitions appear on last page of this circular. Imports are reported on a trade year basis. All other data are
reported using local marketing years.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
45
HISTORICAL DATA SERIES FOR
SELECTED REGIONS AND
COUNTRIES
CONTENTS
European Union: Grain Supply and Demand ............................................... 46
China: Grain Supply and Demand ................................................................ 47
Other Europe: Grain Supply and Demand .................................................... 48
Former Soviet Union: Grain Supply and Demand ........................................ 49
Wheat Supply and Disappearance: Selected Exporters ................................ 53
Corn Supply and Disappearance: Selected Exporters ................................... 55
Barley Supply and Disappearance: Selected Exporters ................................ 57
Sorghum Supply and Disappearance: Selected Exporters ............................ 58
U.S. Grains: Supply and Distribution……………………………. .... ……..59
Total Wheat and Coarse Grains: Supply and Demand ................................. 60
World Wheat and Coarse Grains: Supply and Demand ............................... 61
World Corn and Barley: Supply and Demand .............................................. 62
World Rice: Supply and Demand ................................................................. 63
DG F/SA &F
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
European Union: Grain Supply and Demand
Wheat and Coarse Grains Millions of Metric Tons/Hectares
Area
Harvested
Yield Productio
n
Imports Exports Feed
Dom.
Domestic
Consumpti
Ending
Stocks
Wheat
132.9 128.263.015.76.85.126.0 2005/06 24.1
125.7 126.260.213.95.25.124.7 2006/07 14.8
120.8 117.252.412.46.84.924.9 2007/08 12.8
151.9 127.660.525.47.75.726.8 2008/09 19.4
139.7 125.657.522.35.45.426.0 2009/10 16.6
136.7 122.852.523.14.65.326.0 2010/11 11.9
138.2 127.257.516.77.45.325.8 2011/12 13.5
133.9 119.351.022.85.35.226.0 2012/13 10.7
144.6 117.349.032.04.05.625.9 2013/14 9.9
156.8 123.554.035.46.05.926.7 2014/15 13.8
160.0 128.859.032.56.56.026.8 2015/16 19.0
156.5 126.856.535.05.55.826.8 2016/17 19.2
Coarse Grains
149.7 150.9112.44.32.74.533.2 2005/06 22.8
140.3 150.9112.94.58.14.332.4 2006/07 15.7
138.8 157.2121.64.520.34.232.7 2007/08 13.1
165.2 154.5116.15.73.14.834.1 2008/09 21.3
158.0 152.8114.83.02.94.833.0 2009/10 26.3
143.2 155.0116.96.28.54.730.2 2010/11 16.9
150.1 151.7113.26.57.05.030.2 2011/12 15.7
146.2 153.3113.77.411.84.631.4 2012/13 13.1
159.2 164.4122.48.616.35.131.5 2013/14 15.6
170.8 162.5121.314.09.05.530.8 2014/15 18.8
151.2 157.7116.911.815.55.030.1 2015/16 16.1
157.7 160.5119.812.113.45.230.3 2016/17 14.6
Wheat and Coarse Grains
282.5 279.1175.420.09.44.859.2 2005/06 46.9
265.9 277.1173.118.513.24.757.1 2006/07 30.5
259.6 274.3174.116.927.14.557.5 2007/08 25.9
317.2 282.1176.631.110.85.260.9 2008/09 40.7
297.7 278.4172.325.38.25.059.0 2009/10 42.9
279.9 277.8169.429.313.15.056.3 2010/11 28.8
288.3 278.9170.723.314.35.156.1 2011/12 29.3
280.1 272.6164.730.217.14.957.4 2012/13 23.8
303.8 281.7171.440.720.35.357.4 2013/14 25.5
327.6 286.0175.349.414.95.757.5 2014/15 32.6
311.3 286.5175.944.322.05.556.9 2015/16 35.1
314.2 287.3176.347.118.95.557.1 2016/17 33.8
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
China: Grain Supply and Demand
Wheat and Coarse Grains Millions of Metric Tons/Hectares
Area
Harvested
Yield Productio
n
Imports Exports Feed
Dom.
Domestic
Consumpti
Ending
Stocks
Wheat
97.4 101.53.51.41.14.322.8 2005/06 34.5
108.5 102.04.02.80.44.623.6 2006/07 38.6
109.3 106.08.02.80.04.623.7 2007/08 39.1
112.5 105.58.00.70.54.823.6 2008/09 45.8
115.1 107.010.00.91.44.724.3 2009/10 54.4
115.2 110.513.00.90.94.724.3 2010/11 59.1
117.4 122.524.01.02.94.824.3 2011/12 55.9
121.0 125.025.01.03.05.024.3 2012/13 54.0
121.9 116.516.00.96.85.124.1 2013/14 65.3
126.2 116.516.00.81.95.224.1 2014/15 76.1
130.2 112.010.51.03.05.424.1 2015/16 96.3
130.0 110.59.51.03.25.324.3 2016/17 118.0
Coarse Grains
147.8 147.1103.53.82.35.128.8 2005/06 36.9
159.0 153.5105.05.51.25.131.1 2006/07 38.0
159.2 157.9106.70.91.25.031.9 2007/08 39.5
172.4 161.2109.10.21.75.432.2 2008/09 52.2
169.8 173.3119.10.23.85.133.4 2009/10 52.3
183.8 188.4128.80.22.75.334.6 2010/11 50.1
198.6 196.2132.00.17.95.635.5 2011/12 60.4
212.2 209.7146.10.15.65.737.1 2012/13 68.4
225.4 223.5157.80.012.45.938.3 2013/14 82.7
222.8 229.1158.80.025.75.739.2 2014/15 102.0
231.8 239.4167.10.016.55.840.2 2015/16 110.8
225.7 246.2170.90.012.25.938.1 2016/17 102.5
Wheat and Coarse Grains
245.3 248.6107.05.23.44.851.6 2005/06 71.4
267.4 255.5109.08.21.54.954.7 2006/07 76.6
268.5 263.9114.73.71.24.855.6 2007/08 78.6
284.9 266.7117.10.92.15.155.8 2008/09 98.0
284.9 280.3129.11.15.24.957.6 2009/10 106.7
299.0 298.9141.81.13.65.158.9 2010/11 109.2
316.0 318.7156.01.110.95.359.8 2011/12 116.3
333.2 334.7171.11.18.65.461.3 2012/13 122.3
347.3 340.0173.80.919.25.662.4 2013/14 147.9
349.0 345.6174.80.827.65.563.3 2014/15 178.1
362.0 351.4177.61.019.55.664.3 2015/16 207.1
355.7 356.7180.41.015.45.762.4 2016/17 220.5
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
Other Europe: Grain Supply and Demand
Wheat and Coarse Grains Millions of Metric Tons/Hectares
Area
Harvested
Yield Productio
n
Imports Exports Feed
Dom.
Domestic
Consumpti
Ending
Stocks
Wheat
3.8 5.10.90.21.43.81.0 2005/06 1.1
3.5 4.60.70.31.53.61.0 2006/07 1.2
3.7 4.81.00.51.93.81.0 2007/08 1.5
4.0 5.11.20.41.74.40.9 2008/09 1.7
3.8 4.91.00.51.73.91.0 2009/10 1.7
3.2 4.70.80.61.73.70.9 2010/11 1.3
3.6 4.91.00.51.94.20.9 2011/12 1.4
3.4 4.71.00.71.64.00.9 2012/13 1.1
4.1 4.81.11.31.94.40.9 2013/14 0.9
3.9 4.81.10.71.83.91.0 2014/15 1.1
4.0 4.91.10.91.94.50.9 2015/16 1.2
4.0 5.01.20.91.84.11.0 2016/17 1.2
Coarse Grains
10.1 9.78.51.30.64.82.1 2005/06 1.3
9.8 9.68.50.90.84.92.0 2006/07 1.3
6.9 7.96.80.10.93.42.0 2007/08 1.1
9.7 8.77.61.50.64.62.1 2008/09 1.1
9.7 8.77.51.40.74.92.0 2009/10 1.4
10.0 8.77.32.00.75.02.0 2010/11 1.5
9.5 8.47.02.30.84.62.1 2011/12 1.0
6.6 7.15.90.60.73.22.1 2012/13 0.6
8.8 7.76.31.90.94.42.0 2013/14 0.8
10.6 8.06.73.10.85.71.9 2014/15 1.1
8.9 8.36.91.80.94.91.8 2015/16 0.9
10.0 8.36.92.30.95.31.9 2016/17 1.2
Wheat and Coarse Grains
13.9 14.89.41.42.04.53.1 2005/06 2.4
13.3 14.29.21.22.34.53.0 2006/07 2.5
10.6 12.67.80.62.73.53.0 2007/08 2.6
13.7 13.88.81.92.34.63.0 2008/09 2.8
13.5 13.78.51.92.44.53.0 2009/10 3.2
13.2 13.48.12.62.44.62.9 2010/11 2.7
13.1 13.28.12.82.74.52.9 2011/12 2.5
10.0 11.87.01.32.43.42.9 2012/13 1.7
12.9 12.57.43.12.74.42.9 2013/14 1.7
14.5 12.87.83.72.55.12.8 2014/15 2.1
13.0 13.18.02.62.74.82.7 2015/16 2.1
14.0 13.38.23.12.74.92.8 2016/17 2.4
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
Former Soviet Union: Grain Supply and Demand
Wheat and Coarse Grains Millions of Metric Tons/Hectares
Area
Harvested
Yield Productio
n
Imports Exports Feed
Dom.
Domestic
Consumpti
Ending
Stocks
Wheat
81.0 75.624.413.95.51.845.8 2010/11 23.1
115.0 80.028.439.78.02.349.7 2011/12 26.4
77.8 71.721.625.47.21.844.0 2012/13 14.3
103.9 72.822.737.27.52.247.7 2013/14 15.7
112.7 75.924.740.27.72.446.7 2014/15 20.1
117.6 78.025.748.37.82.449.0 2015/16 19.2
115.8 79.026.343.67.52.447.6 2016/17 19.9
Coarse Grains
47.5 41.828.48.81.12.221.9 2010/11 5.5
78.6 54.438.624.71.02.927.0 2011/12 6.1
68.2 50.235.619.90.72.527.5 2012/13 5.0
87.8 55.740.030.80.83.029.4 2013/14 7.0
91.6 58.142.133.90.83.030.2 2014/15 7.4
82.5 55.840.629.90.72.928.2 2015/16 4.9
86.7 57.141.730.20.73.128.4 2016/17 5.1
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
Millions of Tons/Hectares
Former Soviet Union: Grain Supply and Demand (Wheat)
Area
Harvested
Ending
Stocks
Total
Consumpti
Feed and
Residual
MY
Exports
MY
Imports
Productio
n
YieldCountry Mktg Year
Former Soviet Union - 12
Kazakhstan
13.9 6.82.08.10.01.113.0 2013/14 2.0
13.0 6.82.05.50.61.111.9 2014/15 3.2
13.7 6.92.17.50.11.211.6 2015/16 2.7
13.0 6.92.17.00.11.211.0 2016/17 1.8
Russia
52.1 34.112.518.60.92.223.4 2013/14 5.2
59.1 35.513.022.80.32.523.6 2014/15 6.3
61.0 37.014.024.50.82.425.6 2015/16 6.6
63.0 37.514.524.50.52.525.5 2016/17 8.1
Ukraine
22.3 11.53.49.80.13.46.6 2013/14 3.7
24.8 12.04.011.30.03.96.3 2014/15 5.2
27.3 12.54.515.50.13.87.1 2015/16 4.5
24.0 12.54.511.50.13.86.4 2016/17 4.6
Uzbekistan
6.8 8.41.90.32.24.91.4 2013/14 1.9
7.2 8.92.20.22.25.11.4 2014/15 2.2
7.2 9.32.20.22.65.11.4 2015/16 2.5
7.2 9.52.20.22.55.11.4 2016/17 2.5
Other Former Soviet Union - 12
8.8 12.02.90.44.32.63.4 2013/14 3.0
8.8 12.73.50.44.52.63.4 2014/15 3.2
8.3 12.32.90.64.32.53.3 2015/16 2.9
8.6 12.63.00.44.42.63.3 2016/17 2.9
Total Former Soviet Union - 12
103.9 72.822.737.27.52.247.7 2013/14 15.7
112.7 75.924.740.27.72.446.7 2014/15 20.1
117.6 78.025.748.37.82.449.0 2015/16 19.2
115.8 79.026.343.67.52.447.6 2016/17 19.9
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
Millions of Tons/Hectares
Former Soviet Union: Grain Supply and Demand (Barley)
Area
Harvested
Ending
Stocks
Total
Consumpti
Feed and
Residual
MY
Exports
MY
Imports
Productio
n
YieldCountry Mktg Year
Former Soviet Union - 12
Kazakhstan
2.5 2.01.70.40.01.41.8 2013/14 0.3
2.4 2.01.70.50.01.31.9 2014/15 0.2
2.7 2.01.70.80.01.32.0 2015/16 0.1
2.7 2.11.80.70.01.32.1 2016/17 0.1
Russia
15.4 12.78.32.70.21.98.0 2013/14 0.9
20.0 14.19.25.30.02.38.8 2014/15 1.5
17.1 13.99.14.00.12.18.0 2015/16 0.8
17.8 13.89.04.00.12.28.1 2016/17 0.8
Ukraine
7.6 5.03.52.50.02.33.2 2013/14 1.0
9.5 4.73.24.50.03.03.2 2014/15 1.3
8.8 4.73.24.30.02.93.0 2015/16 1.0
7.8 4.73.23.20.02.92.7 2016/17 0.9
Uzbekistan
0.2 0.30.20.00.03.20.1 2013/14 0.0
0.2 0.30.20.00.13.20.1 2014/15 0.0
0.2 0.30.30.00.13.20.1 2015/16 0.0
0.2 0.30.30.00.13.20.1 2016/17 0.0
Other Former Soviet Union - 12
3.4 3.52.70.00.12.61.3 2013/14 0.4
3.4 3.62.80.10.22.71.3 2014/15 0.3
3.6 3.72.90.10.12.61.4 2015/16 0.3
3.8 3.83.00.10.12.71.4 2016/17 0.3
Total Former Soviet Union - 12
29.2 23.516.45.60.32.014.5 2013/14 2.6
35.6 24.717.110.30.32.315.3 2014/15 3.4
32.4 24.717.29.20.32.214.5 2015/16 2.2
32.3 24.717.28.00.32.214.4 2016/17 2.1
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
Millions of Tons/Hectares
Former Soviet Union: Grain Supply and Demand (Corn)
Area
Harvested
Ending
Stocks
Total
Consumpti
Feed and
Residual
MY
Exports
MY
Imports
Productio
n
YieldCountry Mktg Year
Former Soviet Union - 12
Kazakhstan
0.6 0.60.50.00.05.30.1 2013/14 0.0
0.7 0.60.50.00.05.30.1 2014/15 0.1
0.7 0.60.50.10.05.30.1 2015/16 0.2
0.8 0.70.60.10.05.30.2 2016/17 0.1
Russia
11.6 7.56.64.20.15.02.3 2013/14 0.3
11.3 8.17.23.20.04.42.6 2014/15 0.3
13.2 8.98.04.20.14.92.7 2015/16 0.5
14.0 9.58.64.50.14.82.9 2016/17 0.5
Ukraine
30.9 9.78.320.00.16.44.8 2013/14 2.4
28.5 9.48.019.70.06.24.6 2014/15 1.8
23.3 8.47.016.00.15.74.1 2015/16 0.8
26.0 8.77.317.00.16.24.2 2016/17 1.2
Uzbekistan
0.1 0.10.10.00.03.40.0 2013/14 0.0
0.1 0.20.10.00.03.40.0 2014/15 0.0
0.1 0.10.10.00.03.40.0 2015/16 0.0
0.1 0.10.10.00.03.40.0 2016/17 0.0
Other Former Soviet Union - 12
3.7 3.22.90.60.33.81.0 2013/14 0.6
3.2 3.22.90.30.43.70.9 2014/15 0.8
2.8 3.12.80.20.33.10.9 2015/16 0.6
3.2 3.22.90.30.33.70.9 2016/17 0.6
Total Former Soviet Union - 12
46.9 21.118.424.80.45.78.3 2013/14 3.4
43.8 21.518.823.20.55.38.3 2014/15 3.0
40.1 21.218.520.40.45.17.8 2015/16 2.0
44.2 22.319.522.00.45.48.2 2016/17 2.4
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
Million Metric Tons/Hectares
Wheat Supply and Disappearance: Selected Exporters
Area
Harvested
Ending
Stocks
Total
Consumpti
Feed and
Residual
MY
Exports
MY
Imports
Productio
n
YieldCountry Mktg Year
Wheat Competitors
Argentina
9.3 6.20.33.60.02.63.6 2012/13 0.3
10.5 6.10.12.30.03.03.5 2013/14 2.5
14.0 6.40.35.30.02.85.0 2014/15 4.9
11.3 6.20.18.50.03.03.8 2015/16 1.5
14.5 6.30.18.50.03.04.8 2016/17 1.2
Australia
22.9 6.73.418.60.11.813.0 2012/13 4.7
25.3 7.03.618.60.22.012.6 2013/14 4.6
23.1 7.23.816.60.21.912.2 2014/15 4.0
24.5 7.23.816.50.21.912.8 2015/16 4.9
25.0 7.54.017.00.21.913.0 2016/17 5.6
Canada
27.2 9.64.319.00.52.99.5 2012/13 5.1
37.5 9.44.223.30.43.610.4 2013/14 10.4
29.4 9.13.724.20.53.19.5 2014/15 7.1
27.6 8.83.622.50.52.99.6 2015/16 3.9
28.5 8.83.620.00.53.09.5 2016/17 4.0
European Union
133.9 119.351.022.85.35.226.0 2012/13 10.7
144.6 117.349.032.04.05.625.9 2013/14 9.9
156.8 123.554.035.46.05.926.7 2014/15 13.8
160.0 128.859.032.56.56.026.8 2015/16 19.0
156.5 126.856.535.05.55.826.8 2016/17 19.2
Kazakhstan
9.8 6.82.06.30.00.812.4 2012/13 2.9
13.9 6.82.08.10.01.113.0 2013/14 2.0
13.0 6.82.05.50.61.111.9 2014/15 3.2
13.7 6.92.17.50.11.211.6 2015/16 2.7
13.0 6.92.17.00.11.211.0 2016/17 1.8
Russia
37.7 33.611.911.31.21.821.3 2012/13 4.9
52.1 34.112.518.60.92.223.4 2013/14 5.2
59.1 35.513.022.80.32.523.6 2014/15 6.3
61.0 37.014.024.50.82.425.6 2015/16 6.6
63.0 37.514.524.50.52.525.5 2016/17 8.1
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
Million Metric Tons/Hectares
Wheat Supply and Disappearance: Selected Exporters (Continued)
Area
Harvested
Ending
Stocks
Total
Consumpti
Feed and
Residual
MY
Exports
MY
Imports
Productio
n
YieldCountry Mktg Year
Ukraine
15.8 11.43.17.20.02.85.6 2012/13 2.6
22.3 11.53.49.80.13.46.6 2013/14 3.7
24.8 12.04.011.30.03.96.3 2014/15 5.2
27.3 12.54.515.50.13.87.1 2015/16 4.5
24.0 12.54.511.50.13.86.4 2016/17 4.6
Total Wheat Competitors
256.6 193.576.088.77.12.891.4 2012/13 31.2
306.2 192.174.8112.65.53.295.4 2013/14 38.2
320.2 200.480.8121.17.63.495.2 2014/15 44.5
325.5 207.487.1127.58.13.497.1 2015/16 43.1
324.5 206.385.3123.56.83.397.0 2016/17 44.6
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
Million Metric Tons/Hectares
Corn Supply and Disappearance: Selected Exporters
Area
Harvested
Ending
Stocks
Total
Consumpti
Feed and
Residual
MY
Exports
MY
Imports
Productio
n
YieldCountry Mktg Year
Argentina
15.5 6.44.510.30.06.22.5 2008/09 0.9
25.0 6.95.016.50.08.33.0 2009/10 2.5
25.2 7.35.316.30.06.73.8 2010/11 4.0
21.0 7.04.817.10.05.83.6 2011/12 0.9
27.0 7.95.318.70.06.84.0 2012/13 1.3
26.0 8.85.817.10.07.63.4 2013/14 1.4
28.7 9.36.018.90.08.23.5 2014/15 1.9
27.0 9.36.018.00.07.93.4 2015/16 1.6
34.0 10.46.623.00.08.14.2 2016/17 2.2
Brazil
51.0 45.538.57.11.13.614.1 2008/09 10.1
56.1 48.541.511.60.44.312.9 2009/10 6.5
57.4 50.043.08.40.84.213.8 2010/11 6.3
73.0 51.544.024.30.84.815.2 2011/12 4.2
81.5 52.544.524.90.95.215.8 2012/13 9.2
80.0 55.046.021.00.85.115.8 2013/14 14.0
85.0 57.048.034.50.35.415.8 2014/15 7.8
81.0 58.049.026.01.15.116.0 2015/16 5.9
82.0 59.050.024.00.65.215.8 2016/17 5.5
China
165.9 153.0108.00.20.05.629.9 2008/09 51.2
164.0 165.0118.00.21.35.331.2 2009/10 51.3
177.2 180.0128.00.11.05.532.5 2010/11 49.4
192.8 188.0131.00.15.25.733.5 2011/12 59.3
205.6 200.0144.00.12.75.935.0 2012/13 67.6
218.5 208.0150.00.03.36.036.3 2013/14 81.3
215.6 202.0140.00.05.55.837.1 2014/15 100.5
224.6 217.5153.50.02.05.938.1 2015/16 109.5
218.0 227.0160.00.01.06.136.0 2016/17 101.5
South Africa
12.6 10.34.71.70.04.32.9 2008/09 2.0
13.4 10.64.92.10.04.13.3 2009/10 2.8
10.9 10.75.02.40.43.82.9 2010/11 1.0
12.8 10.75.01.80.04.13.1 2011/12 1.3
12.4 11.05.12.10.13.83.2 2012/13 0.7
14.9 11.55.52.00.14.93.1 2013/14 2.2
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
Million Metric Tons/Hectares
Corn Supply and Disappearance: Selected Exporters (Continued)
Area
Harvested
Ending
Stocks
Total
Consumpti
Feed and
Residual
MY
Exports
MY
Imports
Productio
n
YieldCountry Mktg Year
10.6 11.86.10.72.03.53.0 2014/15 2.3
6.5 11.05.50.73.53.41.9 2015/16 0.6
13.0 11.35.61.50.54.13.2 2016/17 1.3
Total Corn Competitors
245.0 215.2155.719.31.25.049.4 2008/09 64.2
258.5 231.0169.430.31.75.150.4 2009/10 63.0
270.8 248.0181.327.32.25.152.9 2010/11 60.7
299.5 257.2184.843.46.05.455.5 2011/12 65.7
326.5 271.4198.945.83.75.658.1 2012/13 78.7
339.4 283.3207.340.04.15.858.6 2013/14 98.9
340.0 280.1200.154.17.85.759.4 2014/15 112.5
339.1 295.8214.044.76.65.759.4 2015/16 117.7
347.0 307.7222.248.52.15.959.2 2016/17 110.6
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
Million Metric Tons/Hectares
Barley Supply and Disappearance: Selected Exporters
Area
Harvested
Ending
Stocks
Total
Consumpti
Feed and
Residual
MY
Exports
MY
Imports
Productio
n
YieldCountry Mktg Year
Australia
8.0 4.02.93.20.01.65.0 2008/09 2.4
7.9 4.53.33.90.01.84.4 2009/10 1.9
8.0 4.23.04.70.02.23.7 2010/11 1.0
8.2 3.32.15.40.02.23.7 2011/12 0.5
7.5 3.01.84.50.02.13.6 2012/13 0.5
9.2 2.81.56.20.02.43.8 2013/14 0.7
8.0 2.91.65.20.02.13.8 2014/15 0.6
8.7 2.61.35.80.02.14.1 2015/16 0.9
8.5 2.61.35.80.02.14.0 2016/17 1.0
Canada
11.8 8.97.61.50.03.43.5 2008/09 3.0
9.5 8.77.51.30.03.32.9 2009/10 2.5
7.6 7.56.31.20.03.22.4 2010/11 1.5
7.9 6.95.71.30.03.32.4 2011/12 1.2
8.0 6.85.71.40.02.92.8 2012/13 1.0
10.2 7.76.51.60.03.92.7 2013/14 2.0
7.1 6.55.21.50.13.32.1 2014/15 1.2
8.2 6.65.41.40.13.52.4 2015/16 1.6
8.5 7.05.71.40.13.42.5 2016/17 1.8
European Union
65.8 57.341.73.60.34.514.6 2008/09 11.0
62.4 56.841.71.10.14.514.0 2009/10 15.6
53.7 56.641.34.90.24.312.5 2010/11 7.9
51.9 51.235.83.00.54.311.9 2011/12 6.1
54.9 51.035.55.00.14.412.5 2012/13 5.0
59.7 53.438.05.70.04.812.4 2013/14 5.6
60.6 50.935.59.50.14.912.4 2014/15 5.9
61.3 50.935.510.00.35.012.2 2015/16 6.6
60.7 52.437.08.70.14.912.4 2016/17 6.3
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
Million Metric Tons/Hectares
Sorghum Supply and Disappearance: Selected Exporters
Area
Harvested
Ending
Stocks
Total
Consumpti
Feed and
Residual
MY
Exports
MY
Imports
Productio
n
YieldCountry Mktg Year
Argentina
1.7 1.11.01.10.03.70.5 2008/09 0.2
3.6 1.91.71.80.04.80.8 2009/10 0.2
4.4 1.91.71.70.04.41.0 2010/11 0.9
4.2 1.91.73.10.04.21.0 2011/12 0.2
4.7 2.32.01.80.04.51.1 2012/13 0.8
4.4 2.72.31.30.04.41.0 2013/14 1.2
3.5 2.82.40.90.04.50.8 2014/15 1.0
3.6 2.82.40.90.04.30.8 2015/16 0.9
3.9 3.02.61.30.04.60.9 2016/17 0.5
Australia
2.7 1.81.81.00.03.50.8 2008/09 0.7
1.5 1.21.20.30.03.00.5 2009/10 0.7
1.9 1.41.40.90.03.10.6 2010/11 0.4
2.2 1.11.11.30.03.40.7 2011/12 0.2
2.2 1.11.11.20.03.40.6 2012/13 0.2
1.3 0.90.90.40.02.40.5 2013/14 0.2
2.1 0.50.51.70.03.20.7 2014/15 0.1
2.1 1.11.11.00.03.00.7 2015/16 0.1
2.2 1.11.11.00.03.10.7 2016/17 0.2
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
U.S. Grains Supply and Distribution: Wheat, Corn, Sorghum, Barley, Oats, Rye, and Rice
Thousand Metric Tons/Hectares
Area
Harvested
Yield Rough
Production
Production Imports TY Imports Exports TY Exports Feed Dom.
Consumption
Domestic
Consumption
Ending
Stocks
Wheat
20,47731,5543,32622,75223,2493,9874,06855,147nr318,771 2014/15
26,61431,7413,81021,30021,2283,2003,26655,840nr319,058 2015/16
27,99132,7134,62724,00023,8143,5003,53854,366nr317,310 2016/17
Corn
43,974301,854135,22246,77347,359809804361,091nr1133,644 2014/15
45,788301,252133,35643,50043,8171,4001,397345,486nr1132,678 2015/16
54,678310,403140,97649,00048,2621,0001,016366,539nr1134,763 2016/17
Sorghum
4682,4292,0489,2498,965271010,988nr42,590 2014/15
1,6556,0972,9217,4008,00111012715,158nr53,177 2015/16
1,3505,0802,5405,5005,588252510,338nr42,533 2016/17
Barley
1,7114,2349352923124305133,953nr41,011 2014/15
2,1164,4131,0893002834504354,666nr41,258 2015/16
2,0074,4191,0893003274004354,202nr41,101 2016/17
Oats
7802,4241,30623261,7591,8521,019nr2419 2014/15
8672,7351,62430291,5001,5511,300nr3516 2015/16
7662,6961,56530291,6001,637987nr2417 2016/17
Rye
1540616436262237183nr2104 2014/15
5048123555200229292nr2146 2015/16
1944519756200230190nr2109 2016/17
Rice, Milled
1,5524,155nr3,4723,2077587837,10610,07981,187 2014/15
1,3773,853nr3,3253,1757507466,1078,72481,042 2015/16
1,5994,287nr3,6003,5887757627,33510,47991,227 2016/17
Notes: Wheat Trade Year (TY) statistics are on July/June years. Barley, corn, sorghum, rye and oats Trade Year (TY)
statistics are on Oct/Sept years. Rice Trade Year (TY) statistics are for the subsequent calendar year; 'Imports' and
'Exports' columns contain data on the local marketing year: wheat, barley, oats and rye are June/May; corn and
sorghum are Sept/Aug; rice is Aug/July.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
Total Wheat and Coarse Grains: Supply and Demand
Millions of Metric Tons/Hectares
Area
Harvested
Yield Productio
n
TY
Exports
Feed
Dom.
Domestic
Consumpti
Ending
Stocks
Wheat and Coarse Grains
1,285.9 422.81,329.8656.6202.22.4544.3 1987/88
1,218.1 339.11,301.8619.5203.32.2541.9 1988/89
1,327.4 320.31,346.2644.5208.92.4548.2 1989/90
1,417.5 368.31,369.6669.8190.12.6545.6 1990/91
1,355.5 357.91,365.9653.5207.52.5543.3 1991/92
1,431.6 398.51,388.2664.1205.22.6545.9 1992/93
1,356.5 366.01,389.0657.1188.22.5536.0 1993/94
1,393.0 363.21,395.7670.5200.12.6534.1 1994/95
1,338.9 320.31,381.8641.8187.52.5527.2 1995/96
1,490.1 368.71,441.6674.6198.32.7545.7 1996/97
1,490.6 416.11,443.2685.7190.42.8535.2 1997/98
1,481.3 449.01,448.4685.4198.72.8520.2 1998/99
1,465.6 444.11,469.9690.5214.02.9506.2 1999/00
1,446.8 418.71,472.2700.4204.92.8509.3 2000/01
1,480.1 403.21,495.7713.7208.32.9511.7 2001/02
1,445.0 341.81,506.4711.7209.22.9504.7 2002/03
1,473.0 279.11,535.7718.0205.82.9511.2 2003/04
1,643.0 335.71,586.3756.2214.43.2514.8 2004/05
1,600.1 318.51,617.3758.2222.53.1517.5 2005/06
1,584.9 273.01,630.5749.7229.83.1519.1 2006/07
1,692.8 289.91,675.8764.5244.73.2534.7 2007/08
1,792.0 359.81,722.2774.3253.63.3539.5 2008/09
1,804.1 396.21,767.7782.4254.13.4533.6 2009/10
1,747.8 360.01,784.0773.7250.13.3523.5 2010/11
1,853.4 360.21,853.3808.0287.13.4537.8 2011/12
1,794.7 341.11,813.7807.7279.53.4532.1 2012/13
1,995.0 405.81,930.4861.5327.33.7540.5 2013/14
2,031.2 460.61,976.4883.4334.93.7545.2 2014/15
1,992.2 487.41,965.4898.4340.63.7544.2 2015/16
2,025.6 498.42,014.7917.6335.13.7540.6 2016/17
Notes: Wheat and coarse grains trade data are on July/June years through 1975/76. From 1976/77 to
the present, coarse grains data are on an Oct/Sept trade year.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
World Wheat and Coarse Grains: Supply and Demand
Millions of Metric Tons/Hectares
Area
Harvested
Yield Productio
n
TY
Exports
Feed
Dom.
Domestic
Consumpti
Ending
Stocks
Wheat
523.1 164.7541.7103.0101.52.5213.4 1994/95
537.5 156.6545.696.999.22.5216.7 1995/96
581.3 165.3572.6101.4104.02.6227.1 1996/97
610.2 199.0576.5106.2104.52.7226.4 1997/98
590.5 210.5579.0109.4102.02.7219.2 1998/99
587.5 210.3587.6104.6111.92.8212.7 1999/00
583.3 206.5587.1111.2102.12.7215.6 2000/01
583.9 203.7586.6112.0107.92.7214.5 2001/02
569.7 169.5603.9116.1106.52.7213.9 2002/03
555.3 135.9588.9101.7103.52.7208.0 2003/04
626.8 156.4606.3110.7113.22.9215.8 2004/05
618.8 153.4621.8117.7114.12.8217.5 2005/06
596.7 133.6616.5113.1115.32.8212.3 2006/07
612.6 128.7617.5104.8116.02.8217.1 2007/08
683.7 169.2643.2124.4143.23.1224.1 2008/09
687.0 203.2653.0122.3135.33.0225.6 2009/10
649.3 198.7653.9116.8134.13.0216.9 2010/11
696.9 197.9697.7148.7153.73.2220.9 2011/12
658.3 177.1679.1138.2147.33.1215.8 2012/13
714.9 194.2697.8126.5162.53.3219.6 2013/14
726.9 216.5704.6130.8161.53.3221.3 2014/15
734.1 242.9707.7133.9166.63.3223.8 2015/16
727.0 257.3712.6131.1164.03.3219.0 2016/17
Coarse Grains
869.8 198.5854.0567.698.62.7320.8 1994/95
801.4 163.7836.2544.988.32.6310.5 1995/96
908.7 203.5869.0573.394.32.9318.6 1996/97
880.4 217.1866.7579.585.82.9308.8 1997/98
890.8 238.6869.4576.096.73.0301.0 1998/99
878.1 233.8882.3585.8102.13.0293.5 1999/00
863.5 212.3885.1589.3102.82.9293.7 2000/01
896.3 199.5909.0601.6100.43.0297.2 2001/02
875.3 172.3902.5595.6102.73.0290.9 2002/03
917.7 143.1946.8616.3102.33.0303.3 2003/04
1,016.2 179.4980.0645.5101.23.4299.0 2004/05
981.3 165.1995.6640.5108.43.3300.0 2005/06
988.2 139.41,013.9636.6114.53.2306.8 2006/07
1,080.2 161.21,058.3659.8128.73.4317.6 2007/08
1,108.3 190.61,079.0649.9110.43.5315.4 2008/09
1,117.0 193.01,114.7660.1118.83.6308.0 2009/10
1,098.5 161.41,130.1656.9116.03.6306.6 2010/11
1,156.5 162.31,155.6659.3133.43.6316.9 2011/12
1,136.4 164.01,134.7669.5132.23.6316.3 2012/13
1,280.1 211.61,232.5734.9164.84.0320.9 2013/14
1,304.2 244.11,271.8752.6173.44.0324.0 2014/15
1,258.2 244.51,257.7764.5174.03.9320.4 2015/16
1,298.6 241.01,302.1786.6171.14.0321.6 2016/17
Notes: Wheat and coarse grains trade data are on July/June years through 1975/76. From 1976/77 to
the present, coarse grains data are on an Oct/Sept trade year.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
World Corn and Barley: Supply and Demand
Millions of Metric Tons/Hectares
Area
Harvested
Yield Productio
n
TY
Exports
Feed
Dom.
Domestic
Consumpti
Ending
Stocks
Corn
559.6 153.3535.7371.671.94.1135.2 1994/95
516.7 133.3536.8365.364.83.8135.0 1995/96
592.9 166.3559.9387.966.64.2141.5 1996/97
574.1 167.2573.3400.663.14.2136.2 1997/98
605.8 191.4581.6404.468.74.4138.9 1998/99
608.1 194.4605.1422.572.04.4138.9 1999/00
591.7 175.3610.8427.475.94.3137.1 2000/01
601.8 151.5625.6436.472.74.4137.1 2001/02
603.8 126.8628.5433.476.84.4137.8 2002/03
627.6 104.6649.9445.879.04.4141.7 2003/04
717.1 131.1690.6476.076.04.9145.4 2004/05
700.9 123.5708.5479.682.54.8145.4 2005/06
716.6 108.8731.3480.491.34.8150.5 2006/07
795.7 127.9776.7501.498.25.0160.3 2007/08
800.1 143.5784.4482.083.65.0158.8 2008/09
825.2 140.9827.8492.992.75.2158.4 2009/10
835.9 123.6853.2503.791.75.1164.6 2010/11
889.8 128.3885.0508.7103.75.2172.1 2011/12
869.7 133.3864.8519.0100.54.9177.6 2012/13
990.8 175.2948.9572.1130.45.5180.3 2013/14
1,013.5 207.9980.8585.7128.05.6179.7 2014/15
968.9 207.9968.9600.8133.95.5177.0 2015/16
1,011.1 207.01,011.9623.4133.85.7178.6 2016/17
Barley
160.7 30.0165.6120.915.32.272.2 1994/95
141.2 20.5150.7107.813.42.166.4 1995/96
153.2 24.1149.5106.317.92.464.3 1996/97
153.9 32.2145.8104.112.82.463.8 1997/98
136.0 29.0139.399.517.82.456.7 1998/99
127.4 23.9132.594.017.82.452.1 1999/00
133.0 22.6134.394.616.32.552.9 2000/01
143.4 29.2136.895.517.22.655.7 2001/02
134.3 27.6135.994.716.32.554.7 2002/03
142.7 23.5146.8103.114.82.458.4 2003/04
152.1 33.1142.5100.017.02.757.4 2004/05
136.2 28.3141.097.317.42.555.2 2005/06
136.8 21.5143.698.414.62.456.3 2006/07
132.7 20.6133.791.018.52.455.7 2007/08
155.0 31.7143.8100.418.22.855.0 2008/09
150.9 37.4145.2101.417.32.854.2 2009/10
123.0 24.3136.191.315.22.647.1 2010/11
133.3 22.7135.091.721.42.749.2 2011/12
128.8 20.4131.188.622.22.649.9 2012/13
144.3 23.9140.897.223.82.850.7 2013/14
141.2 23.5141.597.230.12.949.5 2014/15
147.9 25.4146.198.127.53.049.9 2015/16
141.7 23.4143.797.826.42.949.0 2016/17
Notes: Coarse grains trade data are on July/June years through 1975/76. From 1976/77 to the present,
coarse grains data are on an Oct/Sept trade year.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
World Rice: Supply and Demand
Millions of Metric Tons/Hectares
Area
Harvested
Yield Rough
Productio
Productio
n
TY
Exports
Domestic
Consumpti
Ending
Stocks
Rice, Milled
464.8 105.3313.111.4315.13.3141.4 1987/88
490.8 111.7325.714.0332.13.3146.6 1988/89
510.4 120.6336.311.7345.33.5147.8 1989/90
519.4 126.7345.312.3351.43.5147.0 1990/91
522.8 126.7353.214.4353.23.5147.5 1991/92
524.2 123.2357.514.9354.03.6146.5 1992/93
526.1 119.0358.916.6354.73.6145.3 1993/94
540.0 117.6365.520.8364.13.7147.3 1994/95
547.3 118.1368.319.7368.83.7148.4 1995/96
565.3 120.3379.218.9381.43.8150.1 1996/97
575.2 127.7380.027.6387.43.8151.7 1997/98
587.0 134.0388.724.8394.93.8153.1 1998/99
608.8 143.1400.322.8409.33.9155.9 1999/00
594.1 146.7395.624.3399.33.9152.4 2000/01
594.3 132.9413.327.9399.53.9151.3 2001/02
563.1 103.0408.127.6378.23.8146.9 2002/03
585.4 81.7413.827.3392.53.9149.3 2003/04
596.4 74.0408.528.9400.83.9151.8 2004/05
622.2 76.5415.429.0417.84.0153.9 2005/06
625.0 75.4421.231.8420.14.0154.5 2006/07
643.5 80.9428.129.5433.64.2154.8 2007/08
668.7 92.6437.629.4449.44.2158.2 2008/09
656.2 95.0438.431.8440.74.2155.8 2009/10
672.1 100.0445.336.5450.44.2158.4 2010/11
697.2 106.8460.840.0467.64.3160.7 2011/12
704.5 113.8465.539.5472.54.4158.5 2012/13
713.4 114.3477.944.1478.44.4161.8 2013/14
713.7 114.4478.742.8478.74.4160.7 2014/15
701.3 106.4478.441.4470.54.4157.8 2015/16
716.8 106.6480.540.7480.74.5160.6 2016/17
Notes: Stocks, exports and consumption are expressed on a milled basis in marketing years.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
64
ENDNOTES TO GRAIN: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE
REGIONAL TABLES
North America: Canada, Mexico, the United States.
Central America: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama.
Caribbean: Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Bermuda, British
Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, French West Indies,
Grenada, Guadeloupe, Haiti, Jamaica and Dep, Leeward-Windward Islands, Martinique,
Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Puerto Rico, Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the
Grenadines, Trinidad and Tobago, Turks and Caicos Islands, Virgin Islands of the U.S.
South America: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Falkland Islands (Islas
Malvinas), French Guiana, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela.
EU: Austria, Belgium/Luxembourg, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark,
Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta,
Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom.
Other Europe: Albania, Azores, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Former Yugoslavia, Gibraltar,
Iceland, Macedonia, Montenegro, Norway, Serbia, Switzerland.
Former Soviet Union: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan.
Middle East: Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia,
Syria, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Yemen.
North Africa: Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia.
Sub-Saharan Africa: all African countries except North Africa.
East Asia: China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Macau, Mongolia,
Taiwan.
South Asia: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Maldives.
Southeast Asia: Brunei, Burma, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore,
Thailand, Vietnam.
Oceania: Australia, Fiji, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
65
OTHER NOTES
Local Marketing Years (LMY): LMY refers to the 12-month period at the onset of the main
harvest, when the crop is marketed (i.e., consumed, traded, or stored). The year first listed
begins a country's LMY for that commodity (2015/16 starts in 2015); except for summer grains
in certain Southern Hemisphere countries and for rice in selected countries, where the second
year begins the LMY (2015/16 starts in 2016). Key exporter LMY’s are:
Wheat Corn Barley Sorghum
Argentina (Dec/Nov) Argentina (Mar/Feb) Australia (Nov/Oct) Argentina (Mar/Feb)
Australia (Oct/Sep) Brazil (Mar/Feb) Canada (Aug/Jul) Australia (Mar/Feb)
Canada (Aug/Jul) China (Oct/Sep) European Union (Jul/Jun) United States (Sep/Aug)
China (Jul/Jun) South Africa (May/Apr) Russia (Jul/Jun)
European Union (Jul/Jun) United States (Sep/Aug) Ukraine (Jul/Jun)
India (Apr/Mar) United States (Jun/May)
Kazakhstan (Jul/Jun)
Russia(Jul/Jun)
Turkey (Jun/May)
Ukraine (Jul/Jun)
United States (Jun/May)
For a complete list of local marketing years, please see the FAS website
(http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdAvailability.aspx).
Stocks: Unless otherwise stated, stock data are based on an aggregate of differing local
marketing years and should not be construed as representing world stock levels at a fixed point in
time.
Consumption: World totals for consumption reflect total utilization, including food, seed,
industrial, feed, and waste; as well as differences in local marketing year imports and local
marketing year exports. Consumption statistics for regions and individual countries, however,
reflect food, seed, industrial, feed, and waste only.
Trade: All PSD tables are balanced on the different local marketing years. All trade tables
contain Trade Year (TY) data which puts all countries on a uniform, 12-month period for
analytical comparisons: wheat is July/June; coarse grains, corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye
are Oct/Sept; and rice is calendar year.
EU Consolidation: The trade figures starting from 1999/00 represent the European Union
(Croatia plus the former EU-27) and exclude all intra-trade. For the years 1960/61 through
1998/99, figures are the EU-15 and also exclude all intra-trade. EU-15 member states' data for
grains are no longer maintained in the official USDA database. Data for the individual NMS-10,
plus Bulgaria, Romania, and Croatia, exists only prior to 1999/00.
Statistics: (1) Wheat trade statistics include wheat, flour, and selected pasta products on a grain
equivalent basis. (2) Rice trade statistics include rough, brown, milled, and broken on a milled
equivalent basis. (3) Coarse grains statistics include corn, barley, sorghum, oats, rye, millet, and
mixed grains but exclude trade in barley malt, millet, and mixed grains.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis
66
Unaccounted: This term includes grain in transit, reporting discrepancies in some countries,
and trade to countries outside the USDA database.
The Global Commodity Analysis Division, Office of Global Analysis, Foreign Agricultural
Service, USDA, Washington, DC 20250, prepared this circular. Information is gathered from
official statistics of foreign governments and other foreign source materials, reports of U.S.
agricultural attachés and Foreign Service officers, office research, and related information.
Further information may be obtained by writing the Division or telephoning (202) 720-3448.
Note: The previous report in this series was Grain: World Markets and Trade April 2016. For
further details on world grain production, please see World Agricultural Production May 2016.
This circular is available in its entirety on the Internet via the Foreign Agricultural Service Home
Page. The address is: http://www.fas.usda.gov
Questions may be directed to the following staff:
Teresa McKeivier (202) 690-1151 [email protected] Wheat
Daniel Archibald (202) 720-9432 [email protected] Wheat
Rachel Trego (202) 720-1073 [email protected] Rice
Kyle Bonsu (202) 260-8370 [email protected] Rice
Yoonhee Macke (202) 690-4199 [email protected] Coarse Grains
Andrew Sowell (202) 720-0262 [email protected] Coarse Grains
Barrett Bumpas (202) 692-0337 [email protected] Coarse Grains
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May 2016Office of Global Analysis