8/12/2019 Update to Path to Sustainble Energy by 2030 by M. Jacobson & M. Delucchi

1/5

Shuliang Sun

996007440APS 510

Quiz 3, October 21, 2012

From Table 1 of Jacobsons article various renewable energy sources were listed along with dataabout the parameters of the energy sources. The data presented were mostly taken from the year

2007 and 2005. Data in 2011 show that there was rapid growth in the installed capacity of the

renewable energy sector consisting of Solar PV, Wind, and Geothermal. The hydro-electric andNuclear displayed a slower or even negative growth compared to 2005 levels. The explanation

for this besides renewable energy being more and more attractive to investors is that the sector

started with a relatively low installed capacity. Therefore any addition to it increases the

percentage more significantly. For example, wind and hydroelectric added 145.8 GW and 112GW of installed capacity since 2005 yet winds installed capacityincreased by 154% and hydro

electrics installed capacity only increased by 14.4%.

Table 1.Installed capacity of various energy sources

Installed Capacity (GW) Increase/decrease from 2007/2005

2011 2007 2005solar PV 69.31 9.561 625%2

Wind 2401 94.21 154%

Geothermal 111 9.131 20.5 %

Hydroelectric 8903 7782 14.4 %

Nuclear 3601 3711 -3%

Other sources that should be included are biofuel and natural gas because they have become amajor component of energy resources in recent years. Biofuel is measured by tons oil equivalentwhich is converted into kilowatt-hour of energy (Table 2). Natural gas was measured in bcm

(billion cubic meters) and converted into kilowatt-hour of energy (Table 3).

Table 2.Consumption of Biofuel

tons oil equivalent Increase/decrease from 2005

2011 2005

tons equivalent 58,8681 19,7011

TWh 0.694 0.23 200 %

8/12/2019 Update to Path to Sustainble Energy by 2030 by M. Jacobson & M. Delucchi

2/5

Shuliang Sun

996007440APS 510

Quiz 3, October 21, 2012

Table 3.Consumption of Natural gas

Billion cubic meter (bcm) 2011 2005 Increase/decrease from 2005

natural gas 3276.21 2770.41

TWh 335 28.0 17.9 %

Another assumption made in Jacobsons article was that the land area on earth was assumed

to be 135 x 10^6 k. This is likely an underestimation as most sources estimates the areaon earth to be around 145 x 10 k6. This would increase total area by 7% which shouldincrease the total available energy by a factor of this amount too.

In table 4 of the article Jacobsons weightings of various non-cash externalities is well

summarized and thought out. Jacobsons non-cash externalities are appropriate from a

global scale but in my opinion individual weights should be applied to different regions and

countries. Because each region of the globe has its distinct characteristics thereforeJacobsons overarching objective weighting may not be applicable to that particular part of

the globe.

For example, Saudi Arabia is in the Middle East region where resource abundance and

effects on wild life isnt a major issue but water resources, footprint, and spacing is.

Therefore the assigned weight percentage should reflect these concerns by assigning a

lighter weight percentage to emissions (14%), Mortality (14%), and Effects on wild life(2%). More weight should be assigned to water consumption (22%), footprint (12%), andspacing (14%). After assigning the new weightings the weighted average of each energysystem changed. The overall ranking still has Wind-BEV as number 1, but tidal-BEV and

wave-BEV are ranked 2 and 5 due to their low water consumption (See Appendix table 2.

for details). This is different compared to Jacobsons article where tidal-BEV and wave-

BEV were ranked 5 and 7.

In the context of Canada within the North America region heavier weight (%) would be

assigned to emissions (24%), mortality (24%), effects on wildlife (10%), and waterchemical pollution (10%). Less weight would be assigned to water consumption (2%),spacing (2%), and resource abundance (2%). The ranking results using the Canadian

method of weighting mostly agree with Jacobsons ranking of energy systems (SeeAppendix table1. for details).

8/12/2019 Update to Path to Sustainble Energy by 2030 by M. Jacobson & M. Delucchi

3/5

Shuliang Sun

996007440APS 510

Quiz 3, October 21, 2012

excellent macroscopic overview but the document doesnt take into account the differences

in various regions that greatly influence their energy systems. There exists objective waysto judge and rank various energy systems but each region has its unique features and needs

that an overarching objective criteria may not be able to meet. A colloquially analogy to

this would be although the Car and Drivermagazine ranks the Porsche Cayman 1937as the

number one sports car in the world but if I am a mother with three children then I need a

mini-van, not a sports car.

Reference(s)

1. British Petroleum,BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2012, 2012,Web Oct 23 2012

2. Bodansky, David. The Energy Source Book. Ruth Howes and Anthony Fainberg, editors.New York: American Institute of Physics, 1991.

3. International Hydropower Association, 2012 World Activity Report, 2012. June 2012.London, United Kingdom.

4. Pidwirny, Michael.Surface area of our planet covered by oceans and continents.(Table8o-1).University of British Columbia, Okanagan. Feb 02, 2006 Web Oct 24,2012

http://www.bp.com/statisticalreviewhttp://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/8o.htmlhttp://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/8o.htmlhttp://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/8o.htmlhttp://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/8o.htmlhttp://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/8o.html.%20Retrieved%202007-11-26http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/8o.html.%20Retrieved%202007-11-26http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/8o.htmlhttp://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/8o.htmlhttp://www.bp.com/statisticalreview

8/12/2019 Update to Path to Sustainble Energy by 2030 by M. Jacobson & M. Delucchi

4/5

Shuliang Sun

996007440APS 510

Quiz 3, October 21, 2012

Appendix

Sample calculations 1.Increase/decrease of data in Jacobson's article compared to 2011 data

Solar PV:

Installed

Capacity (GW)

2011 2007

solar PV 69.3 9.56

Increase/decrease =

x 100 = 625%

Sample calcul ation 2.Converting tons oil equivalent to kWh (biofuels)

1 ton oil equivalent (t.o.e.) = 42 GJ

= 11667 kwh / t.o.e.

Year 2011: 58,858 ( t.o.e)

58,868 t.o.e.x 11667 kwh/t.o.e. = 6.868 x = 6.868 x= 0.69 Twh

Sample calcul ation 3.Converting bcm to kwh (natural gas)

1 cubic meter natural gas (cm) = 34.638.4 MJ/1 cm = (

(

)

= 10.1

natural gas 2011 2005

Billion cubic meter (bcm) 3276.2 2770.4

TWh 33 28.0

Bio fuel 2011 2005

tons equivalent 58,868 19,701

TWh 0.69 0.23

8/12/2019 Update to Path to Sustainble Energy by 2030 by M. Jacobson & M. Delucchi

5/5

table1.RankingofindividualenergysystemsforCanadaweight(%) WindBEV WindHFC PVBEV CSPBEV GeoBE Hydro Wave TidalB NucBE CCSB CornE8 CelE85resrouceabundance 2 2 3 1 4 7 10 6 5 9 8 11 12

CO2e 24 1 3 5 2 4 8 7 6 9 10 12 11

Mortality 24 1 3 5 2 4 8 7 6 10 9 11 12

Footprint 4 1 2 8 9 5 10 4 3 6 7 11 12

Spacing 4 8 9 5 6 2 10 7 1 4 3 11 12

Waterconsumption 2 1 6 5 9 4 11 1 1 7 7 12 10

Effectson

wildlife 10 1 3 5 2 4 8 7 6 9 10 11 12

Thermalpollution 2 1 2 4 8 3 7 6 5 12 11 10 9

WaterChempollution 10 1 3 5 2 4 8 7 6 10 9 12 11

Energysupplydisruption 8 3 4 2 6 7 11 5 1 12 8 9 9

Normaloperatingreliabili 10 10 1 10 5 6 2 10 9 7 8 3 3

weightedaverage 2.4 3.1 5.3 3.4 4.4 7.9 6.9 5.4 9.1 8.8 10.4 10.4

Overallrank 1 2 5 3 4 8 7 6 10 9 11tie 11tietable2.Rankingofindividualenergysystemsfor SaudiArabia

weight(%) WindBEV WindHFC PVBEV CSPBEV GeoBE Hydro Wave TidalB NucBE CCSB CornE8 CelE85

resrouceabundance 3 2 3 1 4 7 10 6 5 9 8 11 12

CO2e 14 1 3 5 2 4 8 7 6 9 10 12 11

Mortality 14 1 3 5 2 4 8 7 6 10 9 11 12

Footprint 12 1 2 8 9 5 10 4 3 6 7 11 12

Spacing 14 8 9 5 6 2 10 7 1 4 3 11 12

Waterconsumption 22 1 6 5 9 4 11 1 1 7 7 12 10

Effectsonwildlife 2 1 3 5 2 4 8 7 6 9 10 11 12

Thermalpollution 2 1 2 4 8 3 7 6 5 12 11 10 9

WaterChempollution 2 1 3 5 2 4 8 7 6 10 9 12 11

Energysupplydisruption 5 3 4 2 6 7 11 5 1 12 8 9 9

Normaloperatingreliabili 10 10 1 10 5 6 2 10 9 7 8 3 3

weightedaverage 3.0 4.2 5.6 5.6 4.3 8.8 5.5 3.8 7.7 7.5 10.5 10.3

Overallrank 1 3 6tie 6tie 4 10 5 2 9 8 12 11

ShuliangSun

996007440

APS510

Quiz3,

October

21,

2012