U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey
FEWS NET Climate Change Data Sets and Analyses: Using
observations to guide adaptation
Chris FunkGary EilertsJim RowlandJim VerdinJoel MichaelsenLibby White
Gideon GaluAkhlalil AdoumNancy MutungaEverlyn MuchombaAbdulrahim Norein Emebet Kebebe Nigist Biru
U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey
Overview Upscaling What observed large scale climate changes do
we see?
Downscaling What observed local climate changes do we
see?
Climate Trend Analyses Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda, Sudan, Chad, Niger, Mali,
Burkina Faso, Senegal
Future analyses: guiding agricultural adaptation & development?
Up
Down
1Research Timeline
2002
2005
2008
2011
Climate Attribution (why?)
Climate Trend Analyses
(what? where?)
Declining ‘LongCycle’ rainsw/Phil Steffen &Alemu Asfaw
Declining Rainsin Ethiopia andGHA
Warming Indian OceanReduces rainfall in GHA
Warming Indian OceanProbably anthropogenic
Declining RainsIn Kenya
Climate changeintensifies La Ninaimpacts
Trend mapping
Upscale 1
1Declining Per Capita Cereal Production
Upscale 2
•http://www.springerlink.com/content/fw645377u3587404/fulltext.pdf
1Principal Components 1 and 2
Upscale 3
War
min
g in
the
wes
tern
Pac
ific
and
Indi
an O
cean
EN
SO
-like
Var
iatio
n
http://www.springerlink.com/content/u0352236x6n868n2/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2010/1199/pdf/ofr2010-1199.pdf
1
PC1-PC2 disrupt water vapor transports
Upscale 4
PC1Indian-WesternPacific
PC2Central-EasternPacific
1
Precipitation in new La Niña years.
La Niña
←warming→
Upscale 5
1PC1 and PC2 time-series (smoothed)
Upscale 6
Drought frequency for Central-Eastern Kenya and Southern Somalia
1Drought AND declining per capita agricultural production have contributed to the current food crisis
Upscale 7Rainfall and Ag data are for Kenya and Somalia
Drought once every six years
Drought every other yearClimate Index = PC1-PC2
U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey
Dataset – Foundation - Observations The core FEWS NET data set is a collection of 1344 precipitation stations
for the GHA and Sahel
A secondary set of air temperature observations is much less dense (179) stations
Downscale 1
U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey
Dataset – The FEWS NET Climatological Trend Analysis (FTA)
Interpolat at-station change values Builds on FCLIM techniques Allows for explicit calculation of interpolation standard errors Incorporates satellite data as ‘background fields’ guiding interpolations
Well-documented : ftp://chg.geog.ucsb.edu/pub/pubs/mapping_decadal_variations.pdf
The book is currently being printed
Precipitation well specified Temperature is not Data set is available at:
ftp://hollywood.geog.ucsb.edu/pub/FEWSNETInformingClimateChangeAdaptationSeries/FCLIM_trends/
Downscale 2
11960-2009 Station Trends
Downscale 3 – FTA
MA M J
JJ A S
1Basically all stations indicate
rapid warming(~0.15 to 0.4°C per
decade)
Downscale 4 - FTA
1
Observed Trends
MAMJ P = Warming in IPA produces subsidence, reduced onshore moisture transports
JJAS P = Warming in IPA produces ridging across tropical Africa, reducing Congo airflows? ATL also important …
MAMJ, JJAS T = note similarityCause (?) related to subsidence warming and …
Downscale 5 - FTA
1Standard Error analysis of trend surfaces
Sigma = Trend divided by standard error
≈ signal to noise ratio
Downscale 6 - FTA
1FCLIM TS – JJAS rainfall for Ethiopia, Sudan and Northern Uganda
Downscale 7 – FCLIM TS
1Air temperatures have risen sharplymore than 1 standard deviation
Downscale 6 – FCLIM TS
1C
lim
ate
Tre
nd
Rep
ort
s 1
2010/2011 Climate Adaptation Reports
•Kenya Complete http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2010/3074/pdf/fs2010-3074.pdf Sudan Complete http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2011/3072/pdf/FS2011-3072.pdf
Ethiopia Almost CompleteUganda Almost CompleteChad Almost CompleteNiger Almost CompleteBurkina Faso Almost CompleteMali Almost CompleteSenegal Almost CompleteMozambique – temperature affects on maize phenology Complete
Openfile report on Indian-Pacific trends Complete http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2010/1199/pdf/ofr2010-1199.pdf
Email [email protected] if interestedIn seeing/commenting on almost complete reports
1
Th
e B
ig P
ictu
re:
Sh
rin
kin
g R
ain
s
Cli
mat
e T
ren
d R
epo
rts
2
Emerging Risk Area?
1Ethiopia - Shrinking Rains across the south
Cli
mat
e T
ren
d R
epo
rts
3
densepop
emergingrisk areas?
1
Ethiopia Rainfall TransectsC
lim
ate
Tre
nd
Rep
ort
s 4
1Sudan - Shrinking rains and warming
air temperaturesC
lim
ate
Tre
nd
Rep
ort
s 5
U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey
Can we afford to NOT to support agricultural development?
• To date, in FY11 the USG humanitarian aid to the Horn was $604 million
• In 2009/2010 a 5 million dollar Worldbank project in Kenya led to increased production of ~41,000 tons• Seed and fertilizer vouchers for 50,000 people
• $122 per ton of maize
• Increasing 2011 production by 20% (472,800 tons) might cost around ~$58 million dollars
• Theoretical percent hungry would drop by ~45%
• In FY2011 the US+WFP contributed ~141 million dollars in aid to Kenya, supplying 118,820 tons in aid.
• Cost = $1,187 per ton
Gu
idin
g A
gri
cult
ura
l D
evel
op
men
t-1
1What can the early warning community contribute to the ag/pastoral development and climate adaptation communities?
Gu
idin
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gri
cult
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evel
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t-2
RemoteSensing
FoodEconomyEarly Warning
Ag/pastoral Development
• Targeting:
• Where 1: Invest most in the most food insecure countries
• Where 2: Smallholder farms in high potential areas
• Where 3: Smallholder farms in high risk areas
• How: Must take into account climate variability/trends
1New dimensions guiding ag development for vulnerability reduction?
Gu
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Ag Opportunity (kg per €)
Ag
Exp
osur
e (r
ainf
all u
ncer
tain
ty)
vuln
erab
le
smal
lhol
ders
poverty reduction lower prices
vuln
erab
le
smal
lhol
ders
poverty reduction less food aid
1Guiding agricultural development for Ethiopia?
Analysis Of MODIS landcover data shows most ag expansion In south-central Ethiopia
Forest transition to crop Forest transition to crop+natural veg
Demographic inertialeads to expansion instressed & drying southern Ethiopia?
Is western Ethiopiaclimatically secure andagriculturally under-utilized?
Gu
idin
g A
gri
cult
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evel
op
men
t-4
1Guiding agricultural development for Kenya?
Mean crop per drop map for Kenya (mean yield per MAMJ rainfall )
Demographic inertialeads to expansion in stressed & drying Central-eastern Kenya?
Is south-western Kenyaclimatically secure andagriculturally under-utilized?
Gu
idin
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cult
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evel
op
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t-5
1Can we meet the MDG of halving the hungry ?
Gu
idin
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gri
cult
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evel
op
men
t-6
2009: 32%
Increasing yieldsBy 20% reducesThe number of hungry by 45%
Decreasing yieldsby 20% increasesThe number of hungry by 38%
22%
44%
~$58 million dollars?
1Collaborative African Data Archive?G
uid
ing
Ag
ricu
ltu
ral
Dev
elo
pm
ent-
7
• Collaborative archive not tied to a single institution
• Satellite based data
• 0.05°, dekadal, continental, 1983-now
• Rainfall – TARCAT + FCLIM
• Vegetation – SPOT + AVHRR
• Land Surface Temperatures (TIR)
• PET
• Station integration
• Tools for national/regional agencies to integrate data
• Agencies to develop their own trend assessments
• Linked to early warning tools• SPIRITS, SERVIR, GeoWRSI, MARS Viewer, Agromet Shell
1Links to research
•Recent Drought Tendencies in Ethiopia and equatorial-subtropical eastern Africa, FEWS NET Special Report 2005 http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/adds/pubs/RecentDroughtTendenciesInEthiopia.pdf•Warming of the Indian Ocean threatens eastern and southern African food security but could be mitigated by agricultural development. Proceedings of the National Academy (2008) http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/adds/pubs/WarmingInTheIndianOceanThreatensEasternAndSouthernAfrica.pdf•Declining Global Per Capita Agricultural Capacity Production and Warming Oceans Threaten Food Security, Food Security (2009) http://www.springerlink.com/content/fw645377u3587404/fulltext.pdf•New satellite observations and rainfall forecasts help provide earlier warning of drought in Africa. The Earth Observer. http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/adds/pubs/Funk_EarthObserver_Jan_Feb09.pdf•Real-time Decision Support Systems: The Famine Early Warning System Network (2009) ftp://chg.geog.ucsb.edu/pub/pubs/RealtimeDSS_for_FEWS_NET_final.pdf•A westward extension of the warm pool leads to a westward extension of the Walker circulation, drying eastern Africa, Climate Dynamics, 2011. http://www.springerlink.com/content/u0352236x6n868n2/. IP-024695.•Mapping recent decadal climate variations in Eastern Africa and the Sahel, 2011 ftp://chg.geog.ucsb.edu/pub/pubs/mapping_decadal_variations.pdf •A Climate Trend Analysis of Kenya-August 2010, USGS Fact Sheet 2010-3074: http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2010/3074/pdf/fs2010-3074.pdf •A Climate Trend Analysis of Sudan-July 2011, USGS Fact Sheet 2011-3072. http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2011/3072/pdf/FS2011-3072.pdf