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U.S. Naval Operational Oceanography
John HardingNaval Oceanographic Office
Stennis Space Center, MS [email protected]
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Naval Operational OceanographyMajor Points
• TRANSFORMATION– Net-Centric Littoral Warfare Teams– Inside the Warfighter’s Decision Loop– Emphasize Ocean-Related Warfare Disciplines
• TRANSLATION– Applying Oceanographic Knowledge to Warfighter Questions
• GODAE Role– Important, Though Not Primary,
Given Littoral Focus of the U.S. Navy
• TRANSFORMATION– Net-Centric Littoral Warfare Teams– Inside the Warfighter’s Decision Loop– Emphasize Ocean-Related Warfare Disciplines
• TRANSLATION– Applying Oceanographic Knowledge to Warfighter Questions
• GODAE Role– Important, Though Not Primary,
Given Littoral Focus of the U.S. Navy
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Naval Operational OceanographyWhat is Operational Oceanography?
“Relevant” Oceanographic Knowledge to the Warfighter
Via
Smart Collection,
Focused Analysis,
Responsive Delivery
Space/Air Remote Sensing Technology
Seabed MappingTechnology
Remote VehicleTechnology
Computer TechnologyComputer Technology Ocean Modeling & Visualization
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Naval Operational OceanographyDistinctions from R&D Oceanography
WaveHeight
HindcastForecast
Oil Spill Trajectory Prediction
Drifting ObjectDrifting Object•• Defined Customer Base (Fleet User)Defined Customer Base (Fleet User)•• Products support real operations/ exercisesProducts support real operations/ exercises•• Reliability (Fleet expects timely, useful products)Reliability (Fleet expects timely, useful products)•• Customer Support (product requests)Customer Support (product requests)•• Operational vs. Research Quality DataOperational vs. Research Quality Data•• Operational vs. Research EvaluationOperational vs. Research Evaluation•• Systematic Monitoring/Assessment of Systematic Monitoring/Assessment of
Product Product PerformancePerformance
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Naval Operational OceanographyThe Customer
What are the warfighter questionsoperational oceanography
can address?
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Naval Operational OceanographyExample Warfighter Questions
-When & where will coastal currents indicate a benefit, hindranceor no-go for a swimmer (SOF, NSCT) or AUV operation?
-When & where will water level and/or near-shore wave/surf cause my amphibious assault (JLOTS, NEO) operation to be go/no go?
-How do I best search for an adversary’s submarine? What are my detection ranges?
-When & where will solitons cause my SDV/submarine to broach?
-Will the presence or lack of bioluminescence make my SOFvulnerable or make an adversary’s SOF operations less likely?
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Naval Operational OceanographyAdditional Example Warfighter Questions
-Will wave conditions and/or current shear abort my planned UNREP operations?
-Will I encounter drifting mines (oil, toxic substance) during myoperations this week at location X?
-What type of assault vehicle is best for the given beach trafficability, water depth,current and tide window combination?
-Will salinity and temperature changes impede use of marine mammals?
-Will biologics/plants (e.g., jellyfish or kelp) hinder conventional vessel performance by clogging intakes or control surfaces? How about Swimmer OPS?
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NPMOC YokosukaNPMOC SD
NEMOC Rota
NLMOC Norfolk
CNMOC StennisNAVO Stennis
JTWC
FNMOC
NCMOC Bahrain
Naval Operational OceanographyNavy METOC Today: Where are the Navy METOC specialists?
Not Shown: 4 Facilities, 31 Detachments, 9 Mobile Environmental Teams, 1 Special Center
2005 Transformation toNet-Centric Littoral Warfare TeamsEmphasizing Tactical Decisions in
the Ocean-Related Warfare Disciplinesvice Regional METOC Emphasis Today
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Naval Operational OceanographyNAVOCEANO production of “relevant” oceanographic knowledge
Hydrography
Oceanography Geophysics/Acoustics
SurveyOperations
Center
Engineering
OceanProjects
WarfightingSupport Center
MSRC
Plans, Programs& Requirements
•Warfare Area P.M.•Short Term Fleet Requests•Long Term Fleet Reqts.
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Naval Operational OceanographyHydrography Department Example
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Naval Operational OceanographyEngineering Department Sample
100% sensor coverage
AutoSurvey
WANT THIS
Purpose: Minimize deployment time with swath sensors while ensuring 100% sensor coverage*
Approach: Adapt vessel navigation based on actual versus predicted sensor coverage, which varies significantly with conditions
* Or operator specified percent coverage from 20-200% NOT THIS
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Naval Operational OceanographySurvey Operations Department Sample
Survey Operations
Center
Raw Data
Data Warehouse
Internal Users
ExternalUsers
Scientific Expertise
Technical Expertise
Additional Data
Processing Codes
Naval PlatformsNaval Platforms
AUVsAUVs
HSLsHSLsSurvey ShipsSurvey Ships
(Future)(Future)
(Future)(Future)
LidarLidar
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Acoustic TransmissionLoss Measurements
Naval Operational OceanographyAcoustics/Geophysics Department Sample
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Naval Operational OceanographyAcoustics/Geophysics Department Sample
LowFrequency
Bottom LossDatabase
TL vs Range
405060708090
100
Range
Tra
nsm
issi
on L
oss
LFBL 9.0 TL Data LFL8.0
GENETIC GENETIC ALGORITHMALGORITHMSearch Engine: Search Engine:
iteration through iteration through geogeo--acoustic acoustic possibilitiespossibilities
OptimalGeo-Acoustic
Parameters(Attenuation,
densityand sound speed)NONO
PE 5.0PE 5.0TransmissonTransmissonLoss ModelLoss Model
Good TLMatch?
YESYESCollected SeismicCollected Seismic
Collected TL DataCollected TL Data
TDAInversion For Geo-Acoustic Bottom Parameters
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Naval Operational OceanographyWarfighting Support Center Sample
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Naval Operational OceanographyMajor Shared Resource Center
One of the most capable HPC environments in the world today serving a nationwide user community of over 4,000 scientists and engineers.
• Department of Defense R&D Asset, 15% available for Operations
• World-class terascale HPC systems, (Regularly ranks in Top 10)• Multi-gigabit LAN/WAN network capability• High-end scientific visualization• Massive, petabyte-scalable hierarchical storage• Strong intellectual component with leading academic affiliates• Proactive user support & computational technology area expertise
IBM Power 4+
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Naval Operational OceanographyNAVOCEANO Oceanography Department Role
Hydrography
Oceanography Geophysics/Acoustics
SurveyOperations
Center
Engineering
OceanProjects
WarfightingSupport Center
MSRC
Plans, Programs& Requirements
•Warfare Area P.M.•Short Term Fleet Requests•Long Term Fleet Reqts.
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NRL & ONRfor
R&D
Naval Operational OceanographyOcean Prediction Dependencies
Models &Models &Expert OceanExpert OceanForecastersForecasters
------------------------------------------------------
Ocean PredictionOcean Prediction
MSRCfor
Computation FNMOCfor
Atmos Forcing
IntegratedBuoy Program
forOngoing QC
SatelliteSST & Altimetry forData Assimilation
NAVO Surveysfor
1) In depth Evaluations2) Hydro/Bathy
Collection
Synoptic In Situ Data forData Assimilation &
QC
BathymetryCustomized for
Lower BoundaryCondition
*
*
*
*
* HPC Dependence
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Naval Operational OceanographyOceanographic Data Collection
Climatologies/Databases,Synoptic Analyses,
Model Assimilation/Eval/QC
--CTD --ADCP--XBT --Current meter--AC9
Survey
T-AGS 60
--Air Nat’l Guard MOA--MiniMet, WOCE,
APEX, Davis, Profilers
Real Time/Remote In Situ
Integrated DriftingBuoy Program
ARGO ProgramBTs, CTDs, Moorings/ADCPs
--Polar Orbiters--Geostationary
Real Time/Satellite
NOAA Imagers
Altimeters--Navy GFO--NASA Jason--ESA EnvisatComm’l Imagers--SeaWiFSNASA Imagers--MODIS
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Naval Operational OceanographyTREND: Less Data Base Production/ More Real-Time Production
-48 0 +24 +48 +72 +10 -months -weeks hours days +months years
Data & Models as the Backbone
CurrentOperations
Operational &Strategic PlanningReconstructions
Model Output &Forecasts
Climatologies• Databases
•Customized Analyses / Climatologies
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Naval Operational OceanographyTrends in NAVOCEANO Oceanography
• Surge effort for Warfare Area Support– ASW, SOW, MIW, …
• Rapid Response Capability for Current Prediction (data, models, oceanographers)
• Forecasters to interpret models/ generate products
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Naval Operational OceanographyOperational Forecasting
Bathymetry,Imagery
Real-time data
Historical Observations
OceanClimatologies
Tide Prediction, Fernandina Beach NOAA vs. RMA2 (7/9/02 - 7/10/02)
-0.20
0.20.40.60.8
11.21.41.61.8
22.22.4
0 24 48
Time (hours)
Sea
Surfa
ce E
leva
tion
(m)
NOAA Prediction
RMA2 Prediction
Dat
a Pr
oces
sing
&
Ass
imila
tion
OceanForecaster
TacticalProduct
OceanographicPredictions
Oce
an M
odel
s
• Graphics• Data Fields• Information
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Naval Operational OceanographyTranslating Ocean Processes to Answer Warfighter Needs
Tempera
ture/
Salinity
Currents
WavesOptic
s
• MIW
• ASW
• USW
• SPECWAR
• AMPHIB
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Naval Operational OceanographyNaval Applications of Ocean Models
• Diver, Swimmer Mission Windows
• Underwater Vehicle Operations
• Mine Drift Prediction
• Mine Scour Prediction
• SOF Small Boat/ Amphibious Ops (tides, waves)
• Oil / Contaminant Spill Prediction
• Helicopter Navigation for Towed Sleds
• Sound Speed for Mine and Submarine Detection
• Other (SAR, UNREP, JLOTS…)
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Naval Operational OceanographyShallow Water Analysis Forecast System (SWAFS) &Shallow Water Analysis Forecast System (SWAFS) &
NRL Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM)NRL Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM)
•• POMPOM--type codes in wide use type codes in wide use around the world for coastal & around the world for coastal & harbor applicationsharbor applications
•• Full primitive equation ocean Full primitive equation ocean circulation modelcirculation model
•• Sigma coordinate in vertical Sigma coordinate in vertical (NCOM hybrid sigma/z ) (NCOM hybrid sigma/z )
•• Includes river runoff, tidal Includes river runoff, tidal forcing, and tracer capabilityforcing, and tracer capability
•• NCOM both global and NCOM both global and integrated into COAMPSintegrated into COAMPS
•• NCOM efficient scalable, NCOM efficient scalable, portable code (portable code (WallcraftWallcraft, , Martin)Martin)
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Naval Operational OceanographyDrift/ Oil Spill Concerns
NAG Drift Simulation
If a suspected source region is here, then blue is simulated track over last 72 hr, red is forecast
track for next 48 hours
If an object is found at the dot, then blue may
point to the source region
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TABS vs SWAFS
Spee
dD
irect
ion
SWAFS 2 km (U)SWAFS 0.8km (C)RMA2 Riverine (2 domains)GNOME (NOAA Oil Spill)
Model Domains and Data Comparisons
Davis vs SWAFS(24 hr forecast)
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Naval Operational OceanographyNAVO SWAFS / NOAA GNOME
(example from actual spill during Desert Storm)
Climatology (educated guess)
XActuallandfallXActual
landfall
SWAFS-COAMPS (best estimate)
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Naval Operational OceanographyRMA2 River Model Validation (NAVO/ERDC)
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
0 24 48 72 96Time (hours)W
ater
Sur
face
Ele
vatio
n (m
)
Blue - ObservedRed - Model
Observed vs. PredictionWater Surface Elevation
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
0 24 48 72 96Time (hours)
Wat
er S
urfa
ce E
leva
tion
(m)
ObservedPredicted
Velocity Magnitude
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0 24 48 72 96Time (hours)
Vel
ocity
Mag
nitu
de (k
nots
)
Speed
Observed vs. PredictionWater Surface Elevation
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
0 24 48 72 96Time (hours)
Wat
er S
urfa
ce E
leva
tion
(m)
ObservedPredicted
Near Um-Qsar
Observation Point
Tidal Forcing
Time
Hei
ght
Spee
dH
eigh
t
Time
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Observed vs. PredictionWater Surface Elevation
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
0 24 48 72 96Time (hours)
Wat
er S
urfa
ce E
leva
tion
(m)
ObservedPredicted
Velocity Magnitude
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0 24 48 72 96Time (hours)
Vel
ocity
Mag
nitu
de (k
nots
)
Speed
Observed vs. PredictionWater Surface Elevation
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
0 24 48 72 96Time (hours)
Wat
er S
urfa
ce E
leva
tion
(m)
ObservedPredicted
Observation Point
Observation Point
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
0 24 48 72 96Time (hours)
Wat
er S
urfa
ce E
leva
tion
(m)
Tidal Forcing Input
\
Depths > mean & Speeds < 1/2 kt
Warfighter Question: When are dive windows where speed low and water level high?
Feedback from MIW Squadron
• Without RMA2 predictions for dive windows, MCM ops would have been extended from 2 months to 3 months
• AMCM Pilots routinely used NAVO graphics on flash cards in cockpit during missions.
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Naval Operational Oceanography
The Bigger Picture:
The U.S. Navy Has Global Responsibility.
Different Geographic Areas can have Different Dominant Ocean Dynamics
That Impact the Warfighter.
Where GODAE Fits In.
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North World - 24 km
8 km7 km
2 km
Global Regional EstuaryGlobal Regional Estuary
Global NLOM/NCOM
Naval Operational OceanographyNesting Approach in Ocean Prediction (Coastal Emphasis)
Kings Bay(RMA-2)
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Naval Operational OceanographyImportance of “Global” View in Littoral Ocean Prediction
Surface Swell PropagationExample
Mesoscale DynamicsExample
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Naval Operational OceanographySeaWIFS relative to NLOM/NCOM - Oman Coastal Filaments
SeaWIFS: 19 Apr. 01 NLOM: 19 Apr. 2001
Cyclonic Eddy
Anticycl. Eddy
NCOM: 19 Apr. 2001
Cyclonic Eddy
Filament
Cyclonic Eddy
Filament Filament
Anticycl. Eddy
Anticycl. Eddy
Chlorophyl from SeaWIFS Model SST and Surface Currents
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Naval Operational OceanographyImportance of “Global” View in Littoral Ocean Prediction
Boundary ConditionsFor Regional Models
Shallow Water Coastally-TrappedWave & Surge Guidance When Regional Model Not Available
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Naval Operational OceanographyGlobal NCOM – Potential for Search & Rescue, Object Drift Tracking
BLACK - DRIFTER, RED - G-NCOM
G-NCOM
DRIFTER
U
V
Courtesy: M. Carnes- NAVO)
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Naval Operational OceanographyGulf of Mexico Extract from NRL IntraGulf of Mexico Extract from NRL Intra--Americas Seas NCOMAmericas Seas NCOM
(Regional Nest in Global NCOM)(Regional Nest in Global NCOM)
Courtesy: Dong Shan Ko, NRLwww.ocean.nrlssc.navy.mil
IAS Currents over SeaWIFS color imagery
Sea LevelVariability
Seasonal & Synoptic Variability
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Naval Operational OceanographyReturning to Warfighter Questions & Impact of the Environment
Acoustic Active Signal Excess in the Sea of JapanAcoustic Active Signal Excess in the Sea of Japan
From From climatologicalclimatological density (GDEM)density (GDEM)
••The ocean state at any time contains The ocean state at any time contains large deviations from climatologylarge deviations from climatology
••Monitoring and predicting the Monitoring and predicting the environment is vitalenvironment is vital
From From measuredmeasured densitydensity
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Naval Operational OceanographyModular Ocean Data Assimilation System (MODAS)
T100 m
1/20/99
•• Ocean thermal data assimilation Ocean thermal data assimilation toolboxtoolbox••Seasonal ClimatologySeasonal Climatology••Synthetic ProfilesSynthetic Profiles••MODAS 2DMODAS 2D••MODAS 3D (synthetics only & full)MODAS 3D (synthetics only & full)
•• Combine climatology, altimetry, Combine climatology, altimetry, MCSST, and onMCSST, and on--scene data to scene data to produce 3D ocean thermal produce 3D ocean thermal structure structure nowcastsnowcasts
•• Operational global & Operational global & relocateablerelocateable, , regional implementationsregional implementations
•• Optimum Interpolation basedOptimum Interpolation based
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Naval Operational OceanographyMODAS synthetic profiles
Actual AXBT TempActual AXBT Temp SSH + SST + SSH + SST + ClimClimClimatologicalClimatological TempTemp
MODAS Temperature at 200mMODAS Temperature at 200m
This used as first guess field to blend in any local data.
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Naval Operational OceanographyEnvironmental Effects on Operations
Frontal boundaries affect:1. Shadow zones2. Bottom grazing3. Bottom loss
Internal waves:1. Vary layer depth2. Affects transmission loss
Wave and Current affect:1. Layer depth2. Ambient Noise3. Sonabouy dispersion
Eddies: 1. Change SSP quickly2. Influence surface andsubsurface drift
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Naval Operational OceanographyEnvironmental Effects on Operations
MODAS correctly shows complex bottom bounce paths with a shallow sound channel that converts to a bottom bounce path as it crosses the Gulf Stream
Historical (GDEM) indicated CZ with a constant shallow sound channel
RAYTRACE With MODAS
With GDEMCourtesy: CDR Van Gurley, SUBLANT Oceanographer (1999)
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Naval Operational OceanographyEnvironmental Effects on Operations – Science Windfalls
22
24
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28
Dep
th (m
)
Temperature (Deg C) Glider: we080
50
100
150
200
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Dep
th (m
)
Temperature (Deg C) EAS NCOM at Glider: we08Positions0
50
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22
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Dep
th (m
)
Temperature (Deg C) Global NCOM at Glider: we08 Positions
Date(month/day/2004) GMT05/09 05/10 05/11 05/12 05/13 05/14 05/15 05/16
0
50
100
150
200
• Glider data shows variability in temperature and salinity isopleths that appear, in part, due to internal tides.• East Asian Seas NCOMresolves tide signal, but amplitude of signal is suppressed. Gliders provide data that will enable adjustment and tuning of 3D forecast models. • Global NCOM does not include tides, hence no internal tide signal, but shows some skill in resolving the vertical temperature structure. • This level of skill is available now without profile data assimilation.
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Naval Operational OceanographyEnvironmental Effects on Operations – Science Windfallsx
1530
1535
1540
Dep
th (m
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Sound Speed (m/s) Glider: we080
50
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Date(month/day/2004) GMT05/09 05/10 05/11 05/12 05/13 05/14 05/15
MOODSGDEMGLIDER-08 10 May @ 0539GLIDER-08 10 May @ 1337CTDEAS NCOMGL NCOM
Range independent runs, assume internal tide is isotropic for at least 20 km from observation.
Top of cycle
Bottom of cycleAB
C
D
E
08
Internal wave animation courtesy of Preller & Martin, NRL
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Naval Operational OceanographyR&D NEEDS
1. Coastal Data Collection, Fusion & Exploitation• e.g. adaptive sampling, use of AUVs & other technologies
2. Coastal Analysis & Prediction• e.g., improved coastal/nearshore models/assimilation
3. Global Analysis & Prediction• e.g., improved global/regional models/assimilation
4. Real-time Evaluation, Visualization & Applications• e.g., rapid, automated data analysis
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Naval Operational OceanographyMajor Points
• TRANSFORMATION– Net-Centric Littoral Warfare Teams– Inside the Warfighter’s Decision Loop– Emphasize Ocean-Related Warfare Disciplines
• TRANSLATION– Applying Oceanographic Knowledge to Warfighter Questions
• GODAE Role– Important, Though Not Primary,
Given Littoral Focus of the U.S. Navy
• TRANSFORMATION– Net-Centric Littoral Warfare Teams– Inside the Warfighter’s Decision Loop– Emphasize Ocean-Related Warfare Disciplines
• TRANSLATION– Applying Oceanographic Knowledge to Warfighter Questions
• GODAE Role– Important, Though Not Primary,
Given Littoral Focus of the U.S. Navy
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Naval Operational Oceanography
QUESTIONS?
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Naval Operational OceanographyWaveWatch 3 (Global & Mediterranean)
NOGAPS & WW3Atlantic Regional Nowcast Statistics
Global Forecast Statistics
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Naval Operational OceanographyQualitative Comparison of Ocean Color & NLOM
4 May 200205W
2 March 2002
4 May 2002 2 March 2002
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Naval Operational OceanographyNLOM Quantitative Forecast Performance
Global NLOM RMS SSH Forecast Error:Black - ClimatologyBlue - PersistenceRed - Forecast
Gulf Stream
Kuroshio
~30-Day Skill from 12/2000 –2/2001
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Naval Operational OceanographySST – NCOM 48 hr. Forecast Verification
2 Day SST Forecast Verification StatisticsMean RMS (0C) over 40 forecasts made 4 Jan 2001 – 12 Feb 2001
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Naval Operational OceanographySST – 48 hr. Forecast Verification – 8/25 to 9/03/2002
Scatter plot comparisons of MCSST obs. vs. Analysis or Model SST products for Tau 48 (non-operational “SWAFS Americas” domain.)
Example of metric software put together by Clark Rowley to monitor daily performance of various real-time products.
Climatology Persistence
Global NCOMNon- OpsSWAFS
RMSE 1.260 RMSE 0.610
RMSE 0.500 RMSE 1.250
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Naval Operational OceanographyDecadal Impact of El Nino
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Naval Operational OceanographyMODAS Height Field Compared to Deep Drifters (1997MODAS Height Field Compared to Deep Drifters (1997--99)99)
(KAPEX Drifter Data & Animation Courtesy of (KAPEX Drifter Data & Animation Courtesy of OlafOlaf BoebelBoebel at URI)at URI)
Note: RAFOS drifters at 800 and 1200 m., drifter tail lengths represent 7 days
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NAVO/NRL InteractionTechnical Example – Critical Role of the NAVO MSRC
0
20000
40000
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100000
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140000
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
YEARS
IBM
Win
terH
awk
II Pr
oces
sor H
rs/d
ayHYCOM 1/25(3.5km)
HYCOM 1/12(7km)
NLOM 1/32(3.5km)
NCOM 1/8(15km)
NLOM 1/16(7km)
DoD Shared Resource CenterExpected Operational Capability
based on Moore’s Law
While much of the ocean’s mesoscale variability can be forecast, routine global forecasts (at 1/32 degree resolution) remain a Grand Challenge computational goal potentially achievable in 2009 with current level of expenditure.
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Naval Operational OceanographyEnvironmental Effects on Operations