Download - U.S. & Oregon Market Hotel Industry Overview...2006 2011 2016 Supply % Change Demand % Change Oregon Area Market: Supply and Demand 12 MMA Oregon Area Market: Supply & Demand % Change;

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U.S.&OregonMarketHotelIndustryOverview

ORLAHospitalityConferenceSeptember17,2019

ChaseOeser,CHIASr.BusinessDevelopmentExecutive,Hotels

[email protected]

©2018STR.AllRightsReserved.

www.hotelnewsnow.comDataDashboard>ViewAllDataPresentations

©2018STR.AllRightsReserved. 3

•  TotalUSReview

•  OregonOverview

•  OregonMarkets

•  Pipeline

•  Forecast

•  Odd&Ends

•  TimeforQ&A

Agenda

TheCenteroftheHotelIndustryBenchmarkingUniverse:

Hendersonville,TN


STRBuildingBlocks

Supply(roomsavailable)

Demand(roomssold)

Revenue(roomsrevenue)

OCC ADRRevPAR


TotalU.S.Review

©2018STR.AllRightsReserved. 7July2019,TotalUSResults

RevPAR+1.1%

July2019

TransientRevPAR+0.8%

JulyRoomDemand122Million

InConstructionRooms8.3%

GroupRevPAR-0.2%

ADR+0.7%


Idon’talwayslikeCalendarShifts…

…butwhenIdoIprefer5Wednesdays

JulyRevPAR+1.1%


July2019:MonthlyRevPARHits

$100FirstTimeEver!


July2019:GrowthisGrowth(EvenWhenIt’sSmall)

%ChangeRoomSupply 2.0%RoomDemand 2.4%Occupancy 73.8% 0.4%

ADR $135 0.7%RevPAR $100 1.1%

RoomRevenue 3.2%

TotalUSResults,July2019


JulyYTD2019:TheNoGrowth/SlowGrowthStoryContinues


ADR $132 1.1%RevPAR $88 1.2%

RoomRevenue 3.2%

TotalUSResults,JulyYTD2019


NumberofMonthswithPositiveADR%ChangeofLessThan1%

2011–2018

0YTD2019

5


12MMAJuly2019:PersistentWeakADRChange

HighestEver? %Change

RoomSupply þ 2.0%RoomDemand þ 2.1%Occupancy ý 66.2% 0.1%

ADR þ $131 1.5%RevPAR þ $87 1.6%

RoomRevenue þ 3.6%

TotalUSResults,12MMAJuly2019


QuarterlyRevPARGrowth:ResultsPositive,ButSlowing

0

2

4

6

8

10

Q1 '14 Q1 '15 Q1 '16 Q1 '17 Q1 '18 Q1 '19

*TotalU.S.,QuarterlyRevPAR%Change,Q12014–Q22019


Supply&DemandGrowthInEquilibriumWillDrive2019/2020Results

-0.7

-4.7

-7.1

7.8

-8

-4

0

4

8

1990 2000 2010

Supply % Change

Demand % Change

TotalU.S.,Supply&Demand%Change,12MMA1/1990–07/2019


RevPARGrowth:LongestRevPARUpcycle(withtwosmallinterruptions)

-25

-15

-5

5

15

1990 2000 2010

TotalU.S.,RevPAR%Change,1/1990–07/2019

56Months 111Months(outof113)

111Months(outof112)


WhatShouldWorryus?~835,000OpenPositionsinAccommodations/FoodService…

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1/1/2012 1/1/2014 1/1/2016 1/1/2018

TotalU.S.,Accommodationandfoodservices,Jobopenings,seasonallyadjusted,https://www.bls.gov/data/#employment

(‘000s)


..AndTheFightForTalentDrivesUpHourlyWages

$14.53

$15.16

$12

$13

$14

$15

$16

Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18

+4.3%YOY

TotalU.S.,Leisureandhospitality,Accommodation,Averagehourlyearningsofproductionandnonsupervisoryemployees,notseasonallyadjustedhttps://www.bls.gov/dataCEU7072100008


ClassReview


Class:SupplyGrowthWillImpactResultsGoingForward

2.72.5

3.6 3.7

1.1

-0.4

2.6

1.7

3.13.6

1.00.7

Luxury UpperUpscale Upscale UpperMidscale Midscale Economy

Supply%ChangeDemand%Change

*Supply/Demand%Change,byClass,YTDJuly2019


ClassRevPARResults:Growth(ButBarely)

1.1

0.70.4

0.7

0.2

1.6

Luxury UpperUpscale Upscale UpperMidscale Midscale Economy*RevPAR%Change,byClass,YTDJuly2019


ClassOccupancy:OccupancyWillRemainFlat(OrDecline)In2019

71.973.7 72.5

68.6

60.8 60.3

72.074.3

72.8

68.7

60.8 59.6

Luxury UpperUpscale Upscale UpperMidscale Midscale Economy

2019 2018

*OCC%,byClass,YTDJuly2019&2018


Segmentation


TransientPerformance:ADRGrowthNowBelow2%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

Jan-18 Jan-19

Demand%Change

ADR%Change

*TransientDemandandADR%Change,12MMA,1/2018–07/2019


GroupPerformance:ADRGrowthHoldsSteady–ForNow

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

Jan-18 Jan-19

Demand%Change

ADR%Change

*GroupDemandandADR%Change,12MMA,1/2018–07/2019

EasterShift

EasterShift


SegmentationADR%Change:TransientADRGrowthNoticeablyWeakerThanGroupADRGrowth

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

Jan-18 Jan-19

TransientADR%Change

GroupADR%Change

*ADR%Change,Transient&Group,12MMA,1/2017–07/2019


OregonMarkets


Portland,ORSubmarkets

Tucson/East

North/West

South/Airport


OregonAreaSubmarkets

Tucson/East

North/West

South/Airport


OregonYTDJuly2019:DemandOutpacingSupply

TotalORResults,July2019YTD


ADR $123 0.4%RevPAR $81 0.6%

RoomRevenue 3.3%


Portland,ORYTDJuly2019:

TotalPortland,ORResults,July2019YTD

%ChangeRoomSupply 4.5%RoomDemand 3.4%Occupancy 72.7% -1.0%

ADR $135 -0.2%RevPAR $98 -1.2%

RoomRevenue 3.2%


OregonAreaYTDJuly2019:

TotalOregonAreaResults,July2019YTD


ADR $112 0.9%RevPAR $68 1.6%

RoomRevenue 3.3%


OregonMarketOverview

Oregon

0.2%

0.4%

-1.0%

-0.2%

0.7%

0.9%

Occ

ADROregonMarkets,July2019YTD

Portland OregonArea

SanJose/SantaCruz


Portland,ORSubmarkets:

Portland,ORSubmarkets,July2019YTD,Absoluteand%Change

Beaverton/SunsetHwyWest,OR 71.3% 1.5% $128 4.3% $91 5.9%LakeOswego/I-5South,OR 70.9% -0.2% $120 0.8% $85 0.6%PortlandAirport/Vancouver,OR-WA 71.8% -2.2% $117 0.5% $84 -1.7%PortlandCBD,OR 77.0% -2.2% $172 -2.5% $133 -4.6%PortlandI-84/I-205East,OR 67.0% 1.5% $95 -1.3% $64 0.2%

Submarket Occ Change ADR Change RevPAR Change


OregonAreaSubmarkets:

OregonAreaSubmarkets,July2019YTD,Absoluteand%Change

Bend/Redmond,OR 67.1% 0.5% $131 0.8% $88 1.3%Eugene,OR 63.9% -0.1% $105 -2.8% $67 -2.8%Medford/GrantsPass,OR 62.2% -2.5% $97 0.2% $60 -2.3%OregonEastArea 58.3% 3.2% $106 5.8% $62 9.2%OregonWestArea 59.9% 0.7% $115 -0.1% $69 0.6%

Submarket Occ Change ADR Change RevPAR Change


-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

2006 2011 2016

Supply % Change

Demand % Change

Portland,ORMarket:SupplyandDemand12MMA

Portland,ORMarket:Supply&Demand%Change;12MMA2006–July2019

4.0%3.1%

9.0%

1.2%

-9.9%

5.5%4.1%

2.9%


-8

-4

0

4

8

2006 2011 2016

Supply % Change

Demand % Change

OregonAreaMarket:SupplyandDemand12MMA

OregonAreaMarket:Supply&Demand%Change;12MMA2006–July2019

1.8%1.8%

5.3%

-0.6%

-7.0%

6.4%

0.9%

2.3%


-20

-10

0

10

20

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

OCC%Change ADR%Change

Portland,ORMarket:OCCandADR12MMA

Portland,ORMarket:ADR&OCC%Change;12MMA2006–July2019

2.5% 0.0%

10.7%

-9.0%

10.4%

-12.8%

7.2%

-0.9%


-20

-10

0

10

20

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

OCC%Change ADR%Change

OregonAreaMarket:OCCandADR12MMA

OregonAreaMarket:ADR&OCC%Change;12MMA2006–July2019

-1.9%

0.1%

7.7%

-1.1%

6.7%

-9.0%

4.9%

0.1%


InConstruction:Verticalconstructiononthephysicalbuildinghasbegun.

FinalPlanning:Constructionwillbeginwithinthenext12months.

Planning:Constructionwillbegininmorethan13months.

UnderContract

Pipeline


Pipeline


USPipeline:I/CRoomsIncrease,ButStillManageable

Phase 2019 2018 %Change

InConstruction 206 190 8.3%

FinalPlanning 237 224 5.8%

Planning 217 194 11.6%

UnderContract 660 609 8.4%

*TotalUSPipeline,byPhase,‘000sRooms,July2019and2018

©2018STR.AllRightsReserved. 43*TotalUSPipeline;RoomsInConstruction,in‘000s;01/2006–07/2019

0

50

100

150

200

250

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Low:July‘1150K

July’19206K

High:Dec‘07211K

5K

I/CPipelineClosingInOnPriorPeakThou

sand

s


LimitedServiceConstructionIsTheNameOfTheGame

14.1

28.8

61.8 64.1

14.0

3.4

19.7

Luxury UpperUpscale Upscale UpperMidscaleMidscale Economy Unaffiliated*USPipeline,RoomsInConstruction,‘000sRooms,byScale,July2019

70%


InConstructionRoomsAreDominatedByTwoPlayers:Hilton&Marriott

58%42%Hilton+MarriottAllOther

*USPipeline,RoomsInConstruction,ShareofHLT&MARoftotal,June2019


TotalActivePipelineRooms:Over80%AreBrandedByThe“Big6”

82%

18%IHG,Choice,Hilton,Hyatt,Marriott,Wyndham

AllOther

*USActivePipeline,ShareofIHG,CHH,HLT,H,MAR,WYNoftotal,June2019


LargeMarketsGrowRapidly

Market RoomsInConstruction %OfExisting New York, NY 14,755 12% Nashville, TN 5,304 12%

Minneapolis/St Paul, MN-WI 3,658 8% Boston, MA 4,092 7% Dallas, TX 6,014 7%

Tampa/St Petersburg, FL 3,137 7% Philadelphia, PA-NJ 3,084 6%

Los Angeles/Long Beach, CA 6,150 6% Phoenix, AZ 3,777 6% Orlando, FL 7,297 6%

*USPipeline,RoomsI/Candas%ofExistingSupply,Largest%InTop26Markets,July2019


SomeSmallerMSAsReportRapidGrowth

MSA RoomsIn

Construction %OfExisting Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI (MSA - 24340) 1,394 12%

Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC (MSA - 16740) 4,731 11% Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN (MSA - 34980) 5,384 11%

San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA (MSA - 41940) 3,255 11% Austin-Round Rock, TX (MSA - 12420) 4,731 11%

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL (MSA - 37340) 870 9% Asheville, NC (MSA - 11700) 1,071 9% Savannah, GA (MSA - 42340) 1,474 9%

Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, SC (MSA - 24860) 1,114 9%

Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL (MSA - 18880) 894 8%

*USPipeline,RoomsI/Candas%ofExistingSupply,Largest%InTop110MSAs,July2019


Portland,ORMarketPipeline


Phase Projects Rooms

InConstruction 11 1,891

FinalPlanning 21 2,496

Planning 6 931

TotalUnderContractPipeline 38 5,318

TotalPortland,ORPipeline,byPhase,ProjectandRooms,August2019

Portland,ORPipeline:38ProjectsUnderContract


OregonAreaMarketPipeline


Phase Projects Rooms

InConstruction 3 285

FinalPlanning 15 1,375

Planning 8 704

TotalUnderContractPipeline 26 2,364

TotalOregonAreaPipeline,byPhase,ProjectandRooms,August2019

OregonAreaPipeline:26ProjectsUnderContract


Forecast


NotableCalendarShiftsImpactingUSLodgingPerformanceDatain2019:

Easter: ShiftfromMarchtoApril(alsoaffectsQ1/Q2)Passover: ShiftfromMarchtoApril(alsoaffectsQ1/Q2)Hanukkah: Shiftfrom12/3to12/23,impactingweeklyresultsWeekendNight: May/Sept/Decloose.July/Aug/Novgain.NotableMarketLevelEvents/Comps:SuperBowl: FromMinneapolistoAtlantaNorthCarolina: HurricaneFlorence9/14/2018andthereafterFlorida: HurricaneMichael10/10/18andthereafterCalifornia: Wildfires11/8through11/25/2018andthereafter


TotalUnitedStatesKeyPerformanceIndicatorOutlook(%Changevs.PriorYear)2019F–2020F

Outlook

Metric2019

Forecast2020

Forecast

Supply 1.9% 1.9%

Demand 2.1% 1.6%

Occupancy 0.2% -0.3%

ADR 1.4% 1.4%

RevPAR 1.6% 1.1%

asofAugust2019


ForecastSummary(STR,CBREandPWCasofAugust2019)

2019 as

Supply 1.9% 2.0% 2.0%

Demand 2.1% 1.8% 2.0%

Occupancy 0.2% -0.2% 0.0%

ADR 1.4% 1.1% 1.1%

RevPAR 1.6% 0.9% 1.1%

2020

Supply 1.9% 2.1% 1.9%

Demand 1.6% 1.3% 1.9%

Occupancy -0.3% -0.8% 0.0%

ADR 1.4% 2.0% 1.0%

RevPAR 1.1% 1.2% 1.0%


TotalUnitedStatesChainScaleKeyPerformanceIndicatorOutlook2019FbyChainScale 2019YearEndOutlook

ChainScaleOccupancy(%chg)

ADR(%chg)

RevPAR(%chg)

Luxury -1.1% 2.4% 1.3%UpperUpscale -0.4% 2.0% 1.5%

Upscale -0.7% 1.0% 0.3%UpperMidscale -0.1% 0.9% 0.8%

Midscale 0.1% 0.3% 0.4%Economy 1.0% 0.8% 1.8%

Independent 0.8% 1.6% 2.4%

TotalUnitedStates 0.2% 1.4% 1.6%

asofAugust2019


TotalUnitedStatesChainScaleKeyPerformanceIndicatorOutlook2020FbyChainScale 2020YearEndOutlook

ChainScaleOccupancy(%chg)

ADR(%chg)

RevPAR(%chg)

Luxury -0.2% 2.0% 1.8%UpperUpscale -0.3% 1.8% 1.5%

Upscale -0.4% 0.8% 0.4%UpperMidscale -0.2% .9% 0.7%

Midscale -0.2% 1.1% 0.8%Economy -0.4% 1.1% 0.7%

Independent -0.4% 1.5% 1.0%

TotalUnitedStates -0.3% 1.4% 1.1%

asofAugust2019


2019ForecastPercentChangeTop25MarketsvsUnitedStates

-0.5

0.2

1.11.4

0.6

1.6

Top25Markets UnitedStates

Occupancy ADR RevPAR


OddsandEnds…


Consulting&Analytics

CustomForecasting•  5 yr. and 18-months Forecasts •  5 yr. and 18-months Forecasts

Consulting•  Market evaluation for development •  Ramp up analysis •  Renovation analysis •  Comp Set Analysis & Grading

CustomAnalysis•  Custom templates and analyses •  Corporate dashboards •  Radial searches •  Hotel Performance Mapping

HOST•  Segmentation •  STAR Rooms data •  F&B STAR data •  Additional Revenue


CertificationinHotelIndustryAnalytics(CHIA)

STRandAHLEIhavepartneredtolaunchtheCertificationinHotelIndustryAnalyticsforavarietyofindustryprofessionals.•  Therearefourcorecontentareas:

o  HotelIndustryFoundationso  HotelMathFundamentals–themetricsusedbythehotelindustryo  PropertyLevelBenchmarking(STARReports)o  HotelIndustryPerformanceReports

•  Oneortwo-dayCHIAworkshopsareavailable•  [email protected]

Questions? Presentationisavailablefordownload.Toviewthispresentation,click“STRDataPresentations”fromthedrop-downmenuonwww.HotelNewsNow.com.


Thank You!


ChaseOeserSr.BusinessDevelopmentExecutive

[email protected] www.str.com

Download - U.S. & Oregon Market Hotel Industry Overview...2006 2011 2016 Supply % Change Demand % Change Oregon Area Market: Supply and Demand 12 MMA Oregon Area Market: Supply & Demand % Change;

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