Use of GIS and Weather data for Use of GIS and Weather data for Online Crop and Pest Online Crop and Pest Management Models Management Models
Len CoopLen Coop
Integrated Plant Protection CenterIntegrated Plant Protection Center
Oregon State UniversityOregon State University
Project Support Provided by:
USDA National Plant Diagnostic Network (2005-2007) USDA NRI Plant Biosecurity (2006-2009), CAR Program (2005-
2008) USDA Western Region IPM Grants Program (1996-98, 1999-2002,
2003-2005) USDA Pest Management Centers - W. Region (2001-2003) IPPC (OSU Integrated Plant Protection Center) - state level IPM Commodity grants (Oregon Vegetable Commission, Oregon Essential
Oil Growers League, Oregon Cherry Commission)
Major topicsMajor topics
• Brief intro. to 1 other current project• History and status of IPPC weather-driven
modeling website• Development of W. Region Weather
Workgroup• Site-specific Models: Degree-days• Plans for site-specific disease models and
forecasts
Leafroller parasite lifecycle studies: a) Caneberry field, b) Orange tortrix adult and eggs, c) Phytodietus parasitoid, d) Oncophanes larval parasitoid, e) Apanteles cocoon (a)
(d)(c)
(b)
(e)
● Leafrollers are key pests of processed caneberries● Broad spectrum pesticides are a short term fix but a long term cause of orange tortrix outbreaks● Pesticides harm the key natural enemies (mainly, parasitoid wasps) that normally keep leafroller levels below significant contamination levels● Earlier research found that unsprayed fields have, on average, one-third the population densities and three times the parasitism rates of leafrollers found in sprayed caneberries
Caneberry project rationale:
● Caneberry PMSP (Pest Management Strategic Plan)
● PMSP's: A major initiative by USDA to systematically organize IPM priorities by region and commodity
● The current caneberry CAR grant proposal addressed 23 pest management research and Extension needs/priorities cited in the caneberry PMSP
Caneberries – a case study in phenological research
Raspberry
Marionberry
Evergreen blackberry
Other blackberry
Boysenberry
Caneberry IPM field studies – first year sample sites
Leafroller parasite lifecycle studies (previous results) - Developmental (degree-day) model of Apanteles, a parasite of the orange tortrix leafroller
Using Degree-Day and Disease Models in IPM
The Western IPM Center Weather The Western IPM Center Weather WorkgroupWorkgroup
United United SStates Orographically Effective Terraintates Orographically Effective Terrain
DataCollection
Forecasting SpatialInterpolation
Model InputEstimation
DiseaseModeling
Figure 1. Hypothesized uncertainty profiles for a given set of conditions in the western and eastern US.
Rel
ativ
e U
nce
rtai
nty
Co
ntr
ibu
tio
n
Western USEastern US
Theoretical uncertainty profiles for a given set of conditions
Weather workgroup goal: to expand access to, and use of, Weather workgroup goal: to expand access to, and use of, effective models and forecasts that enhance the precision of effective models and forecasts that enhance the precision of IPM decisions and reduce reliance on insurance pesticide IPM decisions and reduce reliance on insurance pesticide
treatments, treatments,
i. e. support site-specific pest management. i. e. support site-specific pest management.
Typical IPM questions and Typical IPM questions and representative decision representative decision
tools:tools: "Who?" and "What?"
Identification keys, diagnostic guides, management guides
"When?" Phenology models (crops, insects, weeds),
Risk models (plant diseases) "If?"
Economic thresholds, crop loss models, sequential and binomial sampling plans
"Where?" GPS, GIS, precision agriculture
Degree-day calculationsSimplest: (daily max + min)/2 -TL
Example: single triangle case with Tmax > T
U, Tmin < T
L
Single triangle compared with typical daily fluctuation
Weather and Degree-day Concepts1)Degree-day models: accumulate a daily "heat unit
index" (DD total) until some event is expected (e. g. egg hatch)
Eggs hatch: 152 cumulative DDs
Eggs start developing: 0 DDs
70o(avg)-50o(threshold) = 20DD
1)Day DD DDcum.
2)1. 20 203)2. 18 384)3. 32 705)4. 14 846)5. 22 1067)6. 20 1268)7. 26 152
Weather and Degree-day Concepts • We assume that development rate is linearly related
to temperature above a low threshold temperature
30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1000
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
Temperature versus development
Development time (days)Rate (1/days)
Temperature (F)
Ra
te (
1/d
ays
)
Low temperature threshold = 32o F
Graph of typical insect development rate
Rate of development is linear over most temperatures
Thinking in degree-days: Predator mites example - very little activity Oct-Mar; so no spider mite control expected if you release predators during these months
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
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Predator mite avg DDs/month - W. OR
Deg
ree-d
ays/
mon
th
http://pnwpest.org/cgi-bin/ddmodel.pl?spp=nfa
Active Period
Weather and Degree-day Concepts● Some DD models sometimes require a local
"biofix", which is the date of a biological monitoring event used to initialize the model:● Local field sampling is required, such as: sweep net data, pheromone trap catch, etc.
IPPC weather data homepage IPPC weather data homepage (http://pnwpest.org/wea)(http://pnwpest.org/wea)
Degree-day maps
Degree-day
calculator and
models
IPPC weather data homepage IPPC weather data homepage (http://pnwpest.org/wea)(http://pnwpest.org/wea)
Insect Models with potentialsignificance in field crops:-black cutworm-bertha armyworm-variegated cutworm-corn earworm-Lygus bug-mint flea beetle, mint root borer-strawberry root weevil, Crop Models:-barley, chick pea, canola, flax-lentil, mustard, oats, pea-safflower, sunflower-wheat, winter wheatWeed Models:-downy brome (cheatgrass)-Orobanche (small broomrape)
Degree-day models: UC Davis Database of Degree-day models: UC Davis Database of Degree-day models – 97 pest insects, 11 Degree-day models – 97 pest insects, 11 beneficial insects, 2 nematodes, 6 weeds, 9 beneficial insects, 2 nematodes, 6 weeds, 9 crop plants – beware that many are not crop plants – beware that many are not relevant to Pacific NW (or California)relevant to Pacific NW (or California)
Model Runs0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Calculator/model usage per year
1999
2000
2002
2003
2004
2005 (est)
•Degree-day/Phenology Calc./Model Usage – PNWPEST.ORG •Example 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005-Oct24•================================================================================•Degree-Day Calculator generic 454 3219 6048 5162 7761 7599•codling moth [apple & pear] 83 1123 2019 2053 2428 1827•fire blight [apple & pear] 17 300 699 1115 778 560•
Degree-day models: standardized user Degree-day models: standardized user interfaceinterface
Select species
Select location,forecast locationhistorical average location Click to run model
Model inputs:-links to documentation-model description-validation status
Key events table:-cumulative DDs-name of event
Degree-day models: Codling moth Degree-day models: Codling moth example example
Key events table:-cumulative DDs-name of event
Model outputs:-month, day, max, min-precipitation-daily and cumulative Dds-events
Degree-day models: Codling moth example Degree-day models: Codling moth example (cont.)(cont.)
Model outputs:-month, day, max, min-precipitation-daily and cumulative Dds-events
Degree-day models: Codling moth example Degree-day models: Codling moth example (cont.)(cont.)
Forecasted weather link into the system: 1) weather.com 45 sites (10-day) 2) NWS zone forecasts entire US (7-day)
Degree-day models: Codling moth example Degree-day models: Codling moth example (cont.)(cont.)
Date (x-axis)-dates of key events
Cumulative DDs (y-axis)
Current Dds (with forecasted afterwards)
Historical DDs
Model Summary Graph
Key events
Control of cheatgrass (downy brome) in fallow wheat fields - model under development by Dan Ball, OSU Pendleton, and cooperators throughout the Western U.S.
Downy brome: treat before May 16 2006 (Hermiston)
DD Models map – select weather station from DD Models map – select weather station from mapmap
(example for 10 Stations in Hood River Network – codling moth model)
Weather station selected
IPPC – Weather networks expansion 2003-IPPC – Weather networks expansion 2003-20062006
DD calculator map – select weather station DD calculator map – select weather station from mapfrom map
(example with 6300 stations in US/SW (example with 6300 stations in US/SW Canada)Canada)
Weather station selected
Calculator
Online Models - IPPC- Wide range of weather and climate data - driven pest modeling decision support products
Daily and custom degree-day maps available for coterminous USA by state and region
Online Models - IPPC- Daily updated map: 32, 41, 50 degrees thresholds, Jan 1 - yesterday
Today's base 32 map: 5401 out of 6300+ stations passed quality tests to be included in todays national map
PRISM Knowledge PRISM Knowledge BaseBase
• Elevation influence on climate
• Terrain-induced climate transitions (topographic facets, moisture index)
• Coastal effects
• Two-layer atmosphere and topographic index
• Orographic effectiveness of terrain
• Persistence of climatic patterns (climatically-aided interpolation)
Oregon Annual Precipitation
Mean Annual Precipitation, 1961-90
Full PRISM ModelMax ~ 3300 mm
Simple distance interpolation
Max ~ 7900 mm
GRASS -free & open source for over 25 years: the "Linux" of GIS Simple scripting w/GRASS, e. g.:#!/bin/shd.rast NW_41usd.sites stations_06 color=red type=box size=2d.sites stations_03 color=green type=box size=2d.vect statelines color=blackNew GUI (graphical user interface) Several Web user
interfaces: GRASSLinks, Mapserver
Client side programsOS: Linux/BSD Windows XPWeb/Email: Firefox MS OutlookOffice Suite: OpenOffice MS 95/97/2000/XPPhoto: GIMP PhotoshopStats: R S+GIS: GRASS ESRI Arc*
Open vs non-open source options
• Uses CAI (PRISM temperature climatologies)
• Interpolates current anomalies from mean climatology
PRISM climate
Today’s Anomalies
Today’s Map
Near Real-Time Temperature and Degree-Day Calculation
Initial PRISM-derived DD map, 4 km , Initial PRISM-derived DD map, 4 km , corrected using near-real time site datacorrected using near-real time site data
IPPC, weather-degree days decision support tools: basic map IPPC, weather-degree days decision support tools: basic map generation example, Hood River tree fruit, Oregongeneration example, Hood River tree fruit, Oregon
Hood River, OR – tree fruitHood River, OR – tree fruit1. 2 km resolution2. GWR downscaled to 100 m3. GWR downscaled to 30 m
Online Models - IPPCCustom online degree-day maps available for coterminous USA by state and region
GIS interface: zoom, pan, query, modeling forms
User selected modeling and mapping options
DD mapping of downy brome model -Hermiston region
Downy brome: green "too late" moss "treat now"
Online Models - IPPCNew - date of event phenology maps – we will test if “date” prediction maps are easier to use than “degree-day” prediction maps
Support for hand-held devices, e. g. 320 x 240Online Models - IPPC
Regional/national systemRegional/national system• Develop an insect, weed and plant disease
phenology and risk modeling server for W. USA to be on line (1st services) in 2005
• Services to all regions will evolve, supplemented by Weather Workgroup partnership (e. g. plant disease models, site-specific forecasts)
• Some biosecurity-focused analyses already taking place
• Integrate with East/Midwest workgroups to build a national system “PIPE”
• Weather Workgroup/NRI Biosecurity proposal to:
• conduct uncertainty analyses for model inputs.
• as well as sensitivity analyses of the models with respect to those inputs.
• make a coordinated effort for model implementation, support, and validation from experts across a range of pest, pathogen and crop systems working with physical scientists and technology transfer teams.
Len CoopLen Coop - IPPC, Oregon State University - IPPC, Oregon State University Christopher DalyChristopher Daly, Director, Spatial Climate Analysis Service, Oregon State , Director, Spatial Climate Analysis Service, Oregon State UniversityUniversityAlan FoxAlan Fox – Foxweather, LCC – Foxweather, LCC Gary Grove - Gary Grove - Washington State University Washington State University Doug GublerDoug Gubler – University California – University California Paul Jepson – Paul Jepson – Director, IPPC, Oregon State University Director, IPPC, Oregon State University Ken JohnsonKen Johnson – Botany and Plant Pathology, Oregon State University – Botany and Plant Pathology, Oregon State University Walter MahaffeeWalter Mahaffee – USDA-ARS – USDA-ARS William PfenderWilliam Pfender – USDA-ARS – USDA-ARS Fran PierceFran Pierce - Director, Center for Precision Agricultural Systems, Washington - Director, Center for Precision Agricultural Systems, Washington State UniversityState UniversityJoyce StrandJoyce Strand - University of California - Information Systems Manager and - University of California - Information Systems Manager and MeteorologistMeteorologistCarla S. Thomas -Carla S. Thomas -National Plant Diagnostic Network, University California National Plant Diagnostic Network, University California
W IPMC Weather WorkgroupW IPMC Weather Workgroup
Disease risk models: Pear scab (Venturia pirina)
Spotts et al. Pear Scab infection risk model:Spotts et al. Pear Scab infection risk model:
pear scab degree-hours = avg hourly temp – 32notes:-lower threshold = 32 F-upper threshold = 66 F (so substitute 66 if avg temp > 66)-accumulate degree-hours during times of leaf wetness (using leaf wetness sensors or estimated leaf wetness)
Risk Index Table (pear scab):
Cumulative degree-hours Risk Level
< 250 No scab risk > 250 Scab sycle nearing > 320 Scab cycle started
Online Models - IPPCPlant disease models
online – Crop disease
models w/specific
grower networks, e. g.
Hood River pear scab &
GT powdery mildew
Model outputs shown w/input weather data for veracity
Generic disease models applicable to a variety of diseases and crops:
Model Disease Crops==============================================================Gubler-Thomas Powdery Mildew grape, tomato, lettuce,
cherry, hops
Broome et al. Botrytis cinerea grape, strawberry, tomato,
flowers
Mills tables scab, powdery apple/pear, grapemildew
TomCast DSV Septoria, celery, potato, tomato, Alternaria
almond
Bailey Model Sclerotinia, peanut/bean, rice, melon rice blast,
downy mildew
Xanthocast Xanthomonas walnut--------------------------------------------------------------
Gubler/Thomas Model for Grape Powdery Mildew
• A simple hourly temperature, rule based model • Developed 1990-1995
– Funded by the Ag-chemical Industry• Pilot Implementation and Public Release 1995
– A partnership funded by UC state-wide IPM, Adcon Telemetry, growers
• Full Implementation 1997– Privatization
• Terra Spase• Western Farm Service• Ag Unlimited• FieldWise• Metos
– Ongoing university networks • Pest Cast
Why was a model developed?
• Numerous control failures
• Disease development is explosive
• Rapid development of fungicide resistance
• Only available control options are protectant fungicides
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3/29
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Perc
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ncid
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Epidemics are Explosive
3.53x105spores/cm2
30-40 generations per season
Gubler/Thomas Model• Adapted or modified for other powdery
mildews– Cherry (Grove et al, 2000)
– Hops (Mahaffee et al, 2003)
– Nectarine (Grove)
– Apple (Grove)
– Peach (Grove, Adaskaveg)
– Strawberry (Gubler)
– Melon (Gubler)
Plant disease models online – National Plant Disease Risk System (in development w/USDA)
Model outputs shown w/input weather data for veracity
GIS user interface
Advances in Interpolation are Still Needed for Sparse Weather Networks
Napa Valley, CA (45 x 10 miles)200 weather stations – 2 mile grid
Color differences reflect topography
Yakima Valley, WA (60 x 30 miles)20 weather stations – no grid
Color differences do not always reflect topography
Hop Powdery Mildew Hop Powdery Mildew Infection Risk ForecastInfection Risk Forecast
54%58%61%68%75%
Day 5Day 4Day 3Day 2Day 1
Forecast Accuracy
WA
OR
WA
OR
Region
815662003
91712.414
5
10
Number
of Fields
Potential Number of Fungicide Applications*
9177.6
815102002
14 Day Calendar Program
7 Day Calendar Program
Number of Fungicide
ApplicationsYear
Number of fungicide applications made by Growers Utilizing HPM Risk Model
* Assumes first potential application on May 1 and every 7 or 14 days
until Aug 10 for Oregon and August 20 for Washington.
Practical disease forecasts
====================================================================FIVE DAY DISEASE WEATHER FORECAST1537 PDT WED, OCTOBER 01, 2003 THU FRI SAT SUN MONDATE 10/02 10/03 10/04 10/05 10/06...SALINAS PINE...TEMP: 74/49 76/47 72/50 72/49 76/49RH %: 66/99 54/96 68/99 68/96 58/96WIND SPEED MAX/MIN (KT) 10/0 10/0 10/0 10/0 10/0BOTRYTIS INDEX: 0.12 0.03 0.09 0.48 0.50BOTRYTIS RISK: MEDIUM LOW LOW MEDIUM MEDIUMPWDRY MILDEW HOURS: 2.0 5.0 6.5 4.0 4.0TOMATO LATE BLIGHT: READY SPRAY READY READY SPRAYXANTHOCAST: 1 1 1 1 1WEATHER DRZL PTCLDY DRZL DRZL DRZL-------------------------------------------------------------------TODAY'S OBSERVED BI (NOON-NOON): -1.11; MAX/MIN SINCE MIDNIGHT: 70/50;-------------------------------------------------------------------...ALANFOX...FOX WEATHER...
Full simulation model online example Grass Seed Stem Rust Simulator (w/Bill Pfender, USDA)
Fungicideefficacy submodel
Automatic help window
Graphs of disease and crop development
Single screen user interface
User-input inoculum levels
Using MtnRain™ and MtnRTemps as forecast and simulation tools
Fox Weather, LLC
Northern California Office
662 Main Street, Fortuna, CA 95540
707 725-8013
805 469-1368
Fax 707 725-9380
DISEASE AND PEST MODEL INPUTS
• Leaf wetness can be estimated using custom sensors and from first principles (physics).
• A semi-quantitative approach, using fuzzy logic, is proposed by Kim & Gleason (Iowa).
• Fox Weather, with IPPC, is improving on this approach by incorporating orographic effects, and is developing algorithms for forecasting leaf wetness.
Feb 21, 2005 Storm MtnRain 60hr Forecast
OBS/FCST RAIN 22/20th-01/21st 1hrMx 3hrTotalEl Rio .32/0.3 .72/0.7 La Conchita .36/.35 .80/1.1Moorpark .36/.25 .84/.75OldManMtn 1.02/.64 2.44/2.0Opids Camp .78/0.6 1.79/1.8
80-hour MtnRain Forecast, 6-Hour Rainfall for Nov 6, 2005Northern San Francisco Bay Area, California
GFS Grid Cell
GFS Forecast: 1 grid cell = 1 value for the entire region
GFS Grid Cell
MtnRTemps+PRISM+CALMET
+
+ =>End Products:Gridded output (map layer) out 5
days of:1. Leaf Wetness (LW)2. Tmean during LW period
To be used for:Maps and web GIS of spatializedDisease and insect risk forecasts
PRISMMean DewPtTemperatureAug 2000
MtnRTemps
CALMET
ConclusionsConclusions
• IPM decision making resides with the grower: decision aids need to be resolved to the field/farm scale
• Advanced climate analysis is an effective starting point for development of tools and services
• Development model in OR, PNW, West, has recruited large numbers of growers, and is evolving
• Plant disease models, supported by improved forecasting, are in development; some released
• W IPM C Weather Workgroup is focusing on standards, quality control, and delivery of comprehensive regional and national services
• GIS-based tools offer scope for integration of other IPM decision tools relating to diagnostics, IPM options, and spatially resolved risk and risk mitigation factors