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Using Modern Hurricane Wind Data to Supplement Hydrodynamic Hindcast and Futurecast Models
M. Dennis Krohn, Eric D. Swain,
Thomas J. Smith, III, & Catherine A. Langtimm
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Rationale For Using Hindcasts of Hydrodynamic Models
• “Predicting” past events helps validate hydrodynamic model.
• Hindcasts closer to large uncertainties inherent to futurecasts.
• Can modern wind fields supplement missing historical data?
• Help with futurecasts?
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BISCAYNE
TIME
TEN THOUSAND
ISLANDS
FLORID
A
MODEL STUDYAREA
24°30́
25°00́
25°30́
26°00́
26°30́
27°00́83°00´ 82°30´ 82°00́ 81°30́ 81°00́ 80°30́ 80°00́
Hydrodynamic Models in S. Florida
BISCAYNE +
TIME =
BISECT
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Hydrodynamic Model Portrays Results in
Terms of Salinity and Inundation
BISECT model
projection of salinity
for 60 cm of
Sea-Level Rise
psu
psu
Range 0 – 35 psu 0.5 km x 0.5 km grid cell
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Historic Storm Tracks
Hurricane Database (HURDAT) • Every 6 hours • Wind Speed, Direction, Forward Speed, Pressure? • Back to 1851
Name Year Date Wind Knots
Speed Km/hr
Great Miami
1926 9/18 125 18
Okee-chobee
1928 9/17 115 14
Andros Island
1929 9/28 85 11
(Landsea et al, 2008; 2012)
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3 Intervals Chosen for Hindcasts
• 1926 – 1932 “Far-Hindcast” – Data-poor; Chosen to span 1st air photo coverage
• 1934 – 1940 – Chosen for air photo coverage and PEST analysis
• 1996 – 2002 “Near – Hindcast” – Data -rich; Used to develop hydrodynamic model
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Use wind values of modern storms
as estimate for wind variability
in hindcast
Hurricane Wilma Oct. 24, 2005 11:18 GMT
Objective
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Gridded Surface Wind Analysis for Hurricane Wilma
Powell et al, 1988
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Why choose Gridded Surface Wind Analysis Product?
Hurricane Ivan – 9/16/2004
Mobile Bay
Mobile Bay 5 Km
7/17/2001
9/17/2004
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Extent of Gridded Surface Wind Analysis for Hurricane Wilma
10/24/2005
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Deriving 4x4 Hindcast Grid from Wilma Gridded Wind Data
24 Gridded Surface Wind Analysis points
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Comparison of 4x4 Wind Grid to Full Resolution Wind Grid
4 x 4 Wind Grid
Full Resolution Wind Grid
~33 km
~22 km
1996 - 2002 “Near-Hindcast”
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Results 1926 – 1932 Hindcast
www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/?n=miami_hurricane
Miami Beach, 1926
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1928 Okeechobee Storm as seen
in 1926-1932 Hindcast
“Δ” Inundation
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Initial Hindcast
1926 Great Miami Hurricane
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Measuring Storm “Δ Inundation” from 1926 – 1932 Hindcast
Km 2
1928 Okeechobee
847
779
1929 Andros Is.
1788*
1926 Great Miami
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Modern -> Hindcast Winds
Hurricane Wilma 1926 Hurricane Analogy
-> Transformation of Wind Fields
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1926 Miami Hurricane Hindcast
with hurricane spatially-uniform
wind
with hurricane spatially-variable
wind
without hurricane
wind
9/17/1926
9/18/1926
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Predicted Long Term Hydrologic Effects from Hindcast Wind Field
Uniform wind Variable wind No wind
1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
Surface Water
Uniform wind Variable wind No wind
1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
Groundwater
Time Lag
Swain et al, in prep.
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Summary
• 1926 – 1932 hindcast shows good relation to historical events.
• Can make estimates of missing data.
• Able to simplify modern wind data.
• Modern wind surrogates for hindcast.
• First steps in making futurecasts…
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