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US/UK Future Flooding Workshop
Socio-economic Scenarios
Edmund Penning-RowsellFlood Hazard Research Center
Middlesex Universityand
Oxford University
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Scenarios:a tool for thinking about the future
• The future is unlike the past and is shaped by human choice and action
• The future cannot be foreseen, but exploring the future can inform present decisions
• There are many possible futures; scenarios map a ‘possibility’ space
• Scenario analysis involves rational analysis and subjective judgement
Scenarios are not intended to predict the future
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Scenarios: Five major dimensions of change are
recognised in the global future
• Demography and settlement patterns• The composition and rate of economic
growth• The rate and direction of technological
change• The nature of governance• Social and political values
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Foresight futures
Interdependence
Autonomy
WORLDMARKETS
GLOBALSUSTAINABILITY
LOCALSTEWARDSHIP
NATIONALENTERPRISE
CommunityConsumerismValues
Go
vern
ance
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Foresight FuturesNational enterprise
Market orientated approach, but with a regional or national focus and great diversity
Local stewardshipCommunity orientated approach to the provision of goods and services, with no global overview and dominance of local approaches
World marketsMarket orientated approach to the provision of goods and services, with increasing globalisation
Global sustainabilityCommunity orientated approach to the provision of goods and services, with strong global institutions
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The context of flood management
World marketsFree market provision of measures to reduce impacts of flooding and hedge risks.
Major engineering measures to keep pace with increasing risk.
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The context of flood management
World marketsFree market provision of measures to reduce impacts of flooding and hedge risks.
Major engineering measures to keep pace with increasing risk.
Global sustainabilityStrategic regulation of development, management of runoff and reduction of impacts.
Strategic soft engineering of rivers and coasts.
Universal protection through public-private schemes
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The context of flood managementLocal stewardship
National wealth does not keep pace with increasing risk.
Abandonment of fluvial and coastal floodplains. Reinstatement of natural systems.
Diversity of approaches across regions
World marketsFree market provision of measures to reduce impacts of flooding and hedge risks.
Major engineering measures to keep pace with increasing risk.
Global sustainabilityStrategic regulation of development, management of runoff and reduction of impacts.
Strategic soft engineering of rivers and coasts.
Universal protection through public-private schemes
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The context of flood managementNational enterprise
Low regulation and limited emphasis on the environment.
Piecemeal engineering measures to reduce risk, centrally-managed with limited local capabilities
Local stewardshipNational wealth does not keep pace with increasing risk.
Abandonment of fluvial and coastal floodplains. Reinstatement of natural systems.
Diversity of approaches across regions
World marketsFree market provision of measures to reduce impacts of flooding and hedge risks.
Major engineering measures to keep pace with increasing risk.
Global sustainabilityStrategic regulation of development, management of runoff and reduction of impacts.
Strategic soft engineering of rivers and coasts.
Universal protection through public-private schemes
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Scenarios: filling in the detailsPresent
dayWorld
MarketsNational
EnterpriseLocal
StewardshipGlobal
Sustainability
Growth in GDP to 2080s
1 14.1
times
4.6
times
2.6
times
8.1
times
GDP (£ millions)
1,068,980 15,113,908 4,911,148 2,782,193 8,633,180
‘Target’ standards of flood protection
1
(the same as today)
2
(twice today’s
standard)
2 0.75
(i.e. less than today’s
standard)
1
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UK economic growth (GDP) 50% over 16 years
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Increasing REAL wealth over 100 years @ 2% annual growth
£0
£20,000
£40,000
£60,000
£80,000
£100,000
£120,000
£140,000
£160,000
£180,000
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 101
Annual national average real income
(£) in 2002
£166,627
Annual national average real income
(£) in 2102
Years: now to 100 years' time >>>>>>
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The geography of economic growth
2007
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GB population forecasts (2007: millions)
Source: Optimum Population Trust
US population: 2008 – 302 millions2080 - 400?? millions
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Foresight Scenarios plus UKCIP02 climate change scenarios
Medium-low emissions
High emissionsand
Low emissions
Medium-high emissions
Low emissions
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Socio-economic scenarios: Summary
• A tool for thinking about the future
• Scenarios are not intended to predict the future
•They need to link to climate change scenarios
•They need some credibility outside the project
•They need to be fully understandable
•They need stakeholder buy-in
How they were used in Foresight will be explained by Jon, Jonathan, Jim and Paul