V. RyabininPolar Thorpex Workshop, Oslo, 6-8 October 2010
Polar Research within the World Climate Research Programme
(Vladimir Ryabinin, Joint Planning Staff for WCRP)
Objectives:♦ To determine the predictability of climate♦ To determine the effect of human activities on climate
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
22 April 1866
Courtesy IABP 1553-1977
Launch of ICESat
Arctic Climate System Study 1994–2003
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
WGNE
WGCM
WGSIP
WOAPTFRCD
Seasonal
Decadal
ACC
AC&C
Monsoons
Extremes
SLR
IPY
Regional
JSC
JPS
(CAS/WCRP)
with WGOM
D
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
Current climate prediction experiments
Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment – CORDEX
(Courtesy TFRCD)
Climate-system Historical Forecast Project - CHFP
Coupled Model Intercomparison Experiment 5 – CMIP5
(Courtesy WGCM)
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
Stratosphere and Polar Climate
• Effects of stratospheric ozone hole and expected ozone layer recovery (CCMVal + WMO/UNEP Assessment 2010, also for AR5)
• Sudden stratospheric warmings and coolings
•Predictability of the polar vortex, DYNVAR, gravity wave initiative
• Polar Observations (e.g. Vorcore)
• Polar Data (e.g. SPARC-IPY)
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
CEOP/CliC Cold Regions Study
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
Interactions between the Ocean, Atmosphere, Sea Ice and Snow-pack in Polar regions
Determine the importance of OASIS chemical, physical and biological exchange processes on tropospheric chemistry, the cryosphere, and the marine environment, and their feedback mechanisms in the context of a changing climate.
AICI: Air Ice Chemical Interactions (IGAC, SOLAS, CliC)
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
CliC SSG-6, Valdivia, Chile, 6-9.02. 2010
Ice sheets and SLR
Marine Cryosphere
Terrestrial Cryosphere
Global Prediction of Cryosphere
Cryospheric inputs to the Arctic and Southern Ocean Freshwater Budgets
Ice sheet and ice shelf dynamics and impacts on SLR
Regional Climate Modelling
Initiativesthat integrate CliC
themes Carbon and Permafrost
Changes and feedbacks in Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice ☼ Lead theme
☼
☼
☼
☼
☼
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008 Major CliC Initiatives
Koni Steffen
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008Observed Rate of Loss Faster Than GCM Predicted
Stroeve et al., 2007 Bitz., in press
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
SEARCH Sea-Ice Outlook
19 Sep, NSIDC
12 Sep, NSIDC
CliC Sea-Ice Activities
WCRP White Paper “Rapid Loss Sea-Ice in the Arctic” - ARctic HIndcast, Modelling and PrEdiction StuDiES (ARCHIMEDES)- CMIP5 Diagnostic Proejct- Sea-Ice Algorithms Intercomparison – workshop soon
CliC – IARC Workshop on Arctic Ice Loss (Fairbanks, USA, 6-8 October 2010)
Arctic Sea-Ice Working Group
Antarctic Sea-Ice Processes and Climate (ASPeCt)(with SCAR)
Southern Ocean Physical Oceanography and Cryosphere Linkages (SOPHOCLES)
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008 Major CliC Initiatives
Total C Mass in the Atmosphere ~ 800 Gt
Carbon and Permafrost = CAPER
(C. Le Queré et al., 2009)
(C. Tarnocai et al., 2008)
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
3950
582
713
1075
2986
1670
?
scaled from Carmack
rapid retreat of glaciers: Alaska ~1/2 of global loss
rapid retreat of glaciers: Alaska ~1/2 of global loss
Eurasian discharge increased at ~2 km3/yr, 1936-99
Arctic precipitation +8% over last 100 yr
1979 2002
melt area on Greenland ice sheet increased ~16%, 1979-2002
CHANGES IN THE FRESHWATER BUDGET COMPONENTS
e.g., from ACIA: Walsh et al., 2005
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
Arctic System Reanalysis
Regional Reanalysis of the Arctic Atmosphere/Ocean/Land System
High Resolution in Time (3 hours) and Space (15 km, 71 levels) – will consider 10 km resolution
• Time – 2000 to 2010
• Satellite Radiance Assimilation
• Supported by NSF as an IPY Project
Courtesy: Dave Bromwich
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008 SWIPAChapters under national review
Predictions using WCRP CMIP3
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
The ReportPrefaceForewordExecutive Summary1. The Cryosphere Theme2. Applications of Cryospheric Data3. Terrestrial Snow4. Sea Ice5. Lake and River Ice6. Ice Sheets7. Glaciers and Ice Caps8. Surface Temperature and Albedo9. Permafrost and Seasonally Frozen Ground10. Solid Precipitation11. An Integrated and Coordinated Observing System12. ImplementationApp. A. ReferencesApp. B. Observational Capabilities and Requirements App. C. Satellite Missions in Support of the ThemeApp. D. AcronymsApp. E. Contributors
Contributions from ~80 people in 17 countries throughout the development phase. http://igos-cryosphere.org
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
Climate at forefront thru > 20 WCRP-Affiliated Projects
International Polar Year
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008 Main observing initiatives contributing
to the creation of an IPY Legacy:
• Sustaining Arctic Observing Networks (SAON),• Integrated Arctic Ocean Observing System (iAOOS),
and Arctic-HYCOS as parts of SAON,• Pan-Antarctic Observing System (PAntOS), • Southern Ocean Observing System (SOOS) as part of
PAntOS, • The WMO Global Cryosphere Watch (GCW),• Polar Satellite Constellation (PSC),• Polar Regional Climate Outlook Forum (PCOF)
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
• Scoping document accepted by WMO Executive Council in June 2009.
• The Council requested the preparation of a GCW implementation strategy for consideration by the WMO Congress in 2011.
Global Cryosphere Watch-a WMO Initiative
•A legacy of WCRP/CliC in the area of observations•A contribution to GCOS & GEOSS
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
Principal Goal:
To assess and quantify the impacts that climatic variability and change have on components of the cryosphere and the consequences of these impacts for the climate system.
WCRP’s Climate and Cryosphere ProjectCo-sponsored by SCAR and IASC
Enabling prediction of the Arctic climate system;
Enabling prediction of the Antarctic climate system;
Enabling prediction of terrestrial cryosphere; and
Enabling improved assessment of the past, current and future sea-level variability and change.
New
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
Topics :Atmospheric effects of sea-ice changes and vice versaIce sheets and ice shelves effects on ocean circulation, other cryospheric effectsMajor processes in and predictability of the polar oceansLand surface effects such as ones of snow cover, soil moisture, etc.Northern river run-off effects and freshwater balanceSudden stratospheric warmingsEffects of atmospheric constituents, e.g. O3, GHG, aerosols, BC, CH4Volcanic effectsSolar cycle effectsQBO effectsENSO effects and teleconnections with lower latitudesLarge-scale modes of climate variability (AMO, PDO, AO/NAO, SAM) and long-living anomalies in the ocean heat content and its transport Dynamic effects – planetary and gravity waves, polar night jet, etc.
Then: • Road Map to Arctic Climate Prediction• Gap analysis: Pacific, Southern Ocean, surface fluxes?• Technological and programmatic solutions; e.g. implementing a seamless system, cooperation, e.g. with TAWEPI; experience, e.g. one of NCEP
“Seasonal to Multi-decadal Predictability of Polar Climate”Dates: 25-29 October 2010
Venue: Bergen
Workshop
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008 Ocean ReAnalyses & OSs
Arctic Ocean
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
Rapid change is affecting traditional way of life, health and safety; threatens land-based, freshwater and marine species
CLIPS in Polar Regions
There is a need for consistent, useful, operational climate information, products and services for high latitudes:
Industry including land and marine transportation, mining, oil and gas exploration and energy production must consider climate variability and change in planning and operations
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
International Polar Decade (?)
Developments in • studies of real predictability (ocean reanalysis),• observations of polar regions,• polar and cryospheric reanalyses,• modelling and data assimilation, and• etc., could be integrated in an IPD and result in significant
progress in polar climate prediction at a variety of scales.
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
IPY20072008
Cooperation