Download - “Valuing” the Social Sciences. An agenda for hard times eSocSci Seminar Series 31 October 2014
The
Uni
vers
ity
of A
uckl
and
New
Zea
land
“Valuing” the Social Sciences. An agenda for hard times
eSocSci Seminar Series31 October 2014
Peter Davis
University of [email protected] COMPASS Research Centrewww.compass.auckland.ac.nz
The
Uni
vers
ity
of A
uckl
and
New
Zea
land
Outline
Are these “hard times”?
Making knowledge claims
Improving our methodsInference by design
Making it count
Assessing and increasing impact
Concluding thoughts“Public” social science
A professionalising agenda 2
“Straws in the wind”• Political
– Public statements favouring STEM (Minister)– (Temporary?) Discontinuation of “Health and Society” strand
within MBIE (previously MSI, FoRST)
• Research funding– Ferociously competitive Marsden– HRC with greater clinical and biomedical emphasis– Complex selection processes (NSC, CoREs)
• Public sector– Very tight public sector (e.g. contracts)– Greatly reduced intake to COMPASS methods school
10 National Science Challenges
Some Social Science Aspect1. Ageing well2. Better start3. Healthier lives4. High-value nutrition5. Technological innovation
for growth
Limited Social Science Aspect1. Biological heritage2. Land and water3. Sustainable seas4. Antarctica5. Resilience to natural
disasters
World Economic Forum (Davos) – Top 10 Global Risks, 2014
1. Fiscal crises2. Unemployment3. Water crises4. Income disparity5. Climate change
6. Extreme weather7. Governance failure8. Food crises9. Financial failure10. Political/social
instability
Role of the Social Sciences – 40 Years
• Gibson report (1970)– “recommended that the Council develop a social
science arm to foster development of research activity” (Neil Lunt PhD Thesis, 2004, p. 20)
• Gluckman discussion paper (2011, p.15)– “Social science is not well constituted within the
New Zealand science system and across or within those ministries and agencies that need such information to develop policy options”.
The
Uni
vers
ity
of A
uckl
and
New
Zea
land
Outline
Are these “hard times”?
Making knowledge claims
Improving our methodsInference by design
Making it count
Assessing and increasing impact
Concluding thoughts“Public” social science
A professionalising agenda 9
“Knowledge Claims” in Social Science – Some of the Issues
1. By its nature, social science detects patterns beyond everyday observation
2. “Common sense” can lead you astray
3. Common mistakes can be made in public debate (e.g. not comparing “like with like”)
4. Governments are looking for “evidence”
1. Patterns “below the surface” – Death Rates by Occupational Class
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6
1975-1977 1985-1987 1995-1997Elley-Irving Elley-Irving NZSEI
RII=1.8 RII=2.1DeDa RII=2.3
3. Common mistakes in public debate
Gaps that are barely budging* Imprisonment rate - gaps may close in 1170 years.
Closing gaps favour young (NZ Herald)By Vaimoana Tapaleao, James Ihaka, Simon Collins, Harkanwal Singh5:30 AM Monday Mar 17, 2014
The
Uni
vers
ity
of A
uckl
and
New
Zea
land
Outline
Are these “hard times”?
Making knowledge claims
BRIEF QUESTIONS?
16
The
Uni
vers
ity
of A
uckl
and
New
Zea
land
Outline
Improving our methods
Inference by design
Making it count
17
Fixed Effects – Inequality and Mortality
• Income inequality related to infant mortality• Strong ecological association income inequality with infant
mortality across countries - but is it causal?
• Fixed effects controls variation across countries • Approach relies on changes in inequality within countries
over time – 34 OECD countries over 48 years, Gini and IMR.
• Gini changes not associated with IMR changes• Possible that social policies reducing IMR cluster in relatively
egalitarian countries, but their effects are not via income.
Natural Experiment – Welfare and Health
• Do work/income incentives affect infant health?• It is hypothesised that work/income schemes will raise incomes
and employment for unmarried mothers with high school or less, and in turn improve infant health.
• Using a “natural experiment” design • Variation between US states in introduction of income/work
incentives to estimate effects prenatal poverty/infant health.
• Labour market, incomes, birth weight, smoking • Schemes increased employment 19%, incomes 32%, increased
infant birth weight, slightly reduced smoking
The
Uni
vers
ity
of A
uckl
and
New
Zea
land
Outline
Improving our methods
Inference by design
Making it count
24
The
Uni
vers
ity
of A
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and
New
Zea
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Rectifying the ‘quantitative deficit’ in social science. A modest proposal!
Peter Davis and colleaguesCOMPASS Research Centre [www.compass.auckland.ac.nz]
Public Seminar, VUWInstitute of Policy StudiesFriday 12 November 2010 27
Some “Clarifications”
• What I am NOT saying is– ALL social science disciplines are equally afflicted by this “deficit”
• Psychology, Economics, Management (?) seem to be OK– There is NOBODY with quantitative skills in any department
• There are notable exceptions, but true of some departments– Quantitative skills must DISPLACE qualitative ones
• Students need both sets of skills – they should be “ambidextrous”!– Students should do courses taught by STATISTICIANS
• This would scare them off and they would miss substantive issues
• What I AM saying is– We are nearing the point where graduates lack CRUCIAL skills– Our disciplines are in danger of becoming ONE-DIMENSIONAL– Unless we take this seriously, others will gladly TAKE THE WORK!
28
The
Uni
vers
ity
of A
uckl
and
New
Zea
land
Outline
Improving our methods
Inference by design
Making it count
BRIEF QUESTIONS?
29
The
Uni
vers
ity
of A
uckl
and
New
Zea
land
Outline
Are these “hard times”?
Making knowledge claims
Improving our methodsInference by design
Making it count
Assessing and increasing impact
Concluding thoughts“Public” social science
A professionalising agenda 30
The
Uni
vers
ity
of A
uckl
and
New
Zea
land
Outline
Are these “hard times”?
Making knowledge claims
Improving our methodsInference by design
Making it count
Assessing and increasing impact
Concluding thoughts“Public” social science
A professionalising agenda 39
42
Organisational model for “Public Practice of Professional Social Science”
Creating Knowledge
Engaging Communities
Building Skills
COMPASS Advisory
Board
Sharing Data
The
Uni
vers
ity
of A
uckl
and
New
Zea
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New Zealand Social Statistics Network - research methods courses
Research methods courses offered since 2005
Attended by public servants, academics, research and students
Courses are run on a not-for–profit basis
Courses range from 2 to 5 days and are held in Wellington in November each year
For more information www.nzssn.org.nz
Contact: [email protected]
The
Uni
vers
ity
of A
uckl
and
New
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Proposed courses for November 17th – 28th 2014, Wellington
Introduction to statistics
Qualitative research techniques
Applied computer-assisted qualitative
data analysis using Nvivo
Introduction to structural equation modelling
Introduction to survey design
Introduction to social network analysis
Fundamentals of SPSS
Introduction to program evaluation
Mixed methods in social research
Questionnaire design
Introduction to R
Q Methodology
The
Uni
vers
ity
of A
uckl
and
New
Zea
land
“Valuing” the Social Sciences. An agenda for hard times
eSocSci Seminar Series31 October 2014
Peter Davis
University of [email protected] COMPASS Research Centrewww.compass.auckland.ac.nz
A Modest Proposal!Some Principles
• Accept that there is a problem - for our disciplines
• Accept that our students should be methodologically “ambidextrous”
• Accept that a big part of the problem is students never exercising analytical skills with real data
• Look at ways in which students can be exposed to quantitative methods - without turning them off
• Cooperate across disciplines and institutions46
A Modest Proposal!Some Suggestions
• Joint and pooled block-course teaching in quantitative (and qualitative) research methods.
• Use KAREN network to pool teaching time and resources around the country in real-time contact hours.
• Work together on agreed curricular content and delivery at senior undergraduate and post-graduate levels
• Annual prize for best thesis using quantitative techniques.
• Use quantitative studies to illustrate substantive courses.47