Download - Villamor Jan29
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Ana Liza SolisAna Liza Solis
Climate Monitoring and Prediction - PAGASA/DOSTSource :
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Definition of TermsDefinition of TermsWeather - is the specific condition of the atmosphere or “actual state” at a particular place and time.time.
Climate - is the “average weather” or normalnormal state of the atmosphere and its long term variability over a particular period (say over month, a season, a year or several years)
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(Global) Climate System – interactive system consisting of 5 major components, forced or influenced by various external forcings (i.e.,sun and human activity)
CryosphereCryosphere
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Global warming refers to the increase in the earth’s mean temperature due to the so-called enhanced greenhouse effect.
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Source: OSTPWater vapor and carbon dioxide (CO2) are the two most abundant natural heat-trapping gases in our atmosphere.
Land,vege, ocean,etc.
trapped by
Sunlight - heat energy
These and other gases keep the Earth’s surface about 60°F (33 °C) warmer than it otherwise would be. Without this natural greenhouse or blanket effect, life as we know it would not be possible
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Carbon dioxide: +31% Carbon dioxide: +31%
Methane: +151%Methane: +151%
Nitrous oxide: +17%Nitrous oxide: +17%
Humans are increasing heat-trapping gases Humans are increasing heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere = in the atmosphere = enhanced greenhouse enhanced greenhouse effecteffect
‘Thickening blanket’
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Human activities contribute to climate change by causing changes in Earth’s atmosphere in the amounts of greenhouse gases, aerosols and cloudiness.
How do human activities contribute How do human activities contribute to climate change?to climate change?
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Natural sources
• Soils (biological processes)
• Ocean
Natural sources
• Wetlands
• Termites
• Ocean
Natural sources
• Tropical soils (wet forests)
• Ocean
Natural sources
• none
Carbon Dioxide
Methane
Nitrous Oxide
Hydroflourocarbons
NATURAL SOURCES OF GREENHOUSE GASESNATURAL SOURCES OF GREENHOUSE GASES
Carbon dioxide
Methane
Nitrous oxides
Hydrofluorocarbons
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Nitrous Oxide:
• Bacterial Breakdown of Nitrogen in Soils and Oceans• Use of Nitrogen Fertilizer and Pesticides in Agriculture• Biomass Burning • Combustion Process Vehicles• Acid Production Nitrous oxides
Man-Made Sources of GhGsMan-Made Sources of GhGs
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Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
Perfluorocarbons (PFCs)Perfluorocarbons (PFCs)
Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6
Hydrofluorocarbons
Man-Made Sources of GhGsMan-Made Sources of GhGs
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Carbon dioxideMan-Made Sources of GhGs (Human Activity)Man-Made Sources of GhGs (Human Activity)
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MethaneCarbon dioxide
CH3 accounts for 20% of additional greenhouse effects
Man-Made Sources of GhGs (Human Activity)Man-Made Sources of GhGs (Human Activity)
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Man-Made Sources of GhGs (Human Activity)Man-Made Sources of GhGs (Human Activity)
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Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time
100 0.0740.018 50 0.1280.026
Warmest 12 years:1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,200
6, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1991,200
0
Period Rate
Years /decade
Source: IPCC
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• Alters the composition of the global atmosphere, which
• Is an addition to natural climate variability*
• a change of climate attributed directly/indirectly to human activity that
* fluctuations / variations of climate observed since the instrumental period
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Manifestations of Climate Manifestations of Climate ChangeChange
Manifestations of Climate Manifestations of Climate ChangeChangeMelting of Glaciers
Arctic sea ice area decreased Arctic sea ice area decreased by 2.7% per decadeby 2.7% per decade
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sets of observational evidence supporting the assessment that climate change is happening
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Recent observations show that ghg emissions and many aspects of the climate are changing near the upper boundary of IPCC projections.
global mean temperature
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sea-level rise
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Manifestations of Climate Manifestations of Climate ChangeChange
Manifestations of Climate Manifestations of Climate ChangeChange
The Thames Barrier, a major flood defense system in London designed to be used once every two to three years is now being used six times a year due to increased rainfall.
More Rains Forecast As England And Wales See Wettest Months Since 1766
Henley-On-Thames, England (AFP) July 26, 2007
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Tornados wreak havoc in the North Island
Stuff.co.nz |
Recently
….July 2007
Chilean Lake Vanishes in
Two Months
By Eduardo G
allardo
Buenos Aires has first snow since 1918
James Sturcke and agencies July 10, 2007 Guardian Unlimited
ManifestatioManifestatio
ns of Climate ns of Climate
ChangeChange … …
ICE WORLD
Tibetian Warming Trend Gaining Pace
Tibet's sensitive alpine environment
is seen as a key barometer of the
world's climate.
by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) Jul 23, 2007
Deadly Monsoon Rains Worst in 25 Years NEW
DELHI, India,
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- Among longest coastlines in the world with 32,400 kms (susceptible to storm surges)
DUE TO ITS GEOGRAPHIC FEAUTURES
- Highly susceptible to flooding and inundations
- Archipelagic- 7,100 islands
with low lying areas - Highly susceptible to sea level rise
RANK REGION NUMBER OF MUNICIPALITIE
S
LAND AREA VULNERABLE TO 1 meter SLR (m2)
1 ARMM 39 137,635,200
2 Region 9 40 81,129,600
3 Region 4B 64 75,807,900
4 Region 8 92 75,662,100
5 Region 5 86 74,277,000
6 Region 7 68 52,747,200
7 Region 6 68 38,118,600
8 Region 11 20 30,107,700
9 Region 4A 46 23,805,900
10 Region 1 48 20,322,900
11 Region 12 19 16,232,400
12 CARAGA 40 12,611,700
13 Region 10 31 12,109,500
14 Region 2 18 6,439,500
15 Region 3 23 4,252,500
16 NCR 1 380,700
REGIONS IN THE PHILIPPINES THAT ARE VULNERABLE TO A 1-METER RISE IN SEA LEVEL SOURCE: Greenpeace Southeast Asia published at BizNewsAsia
POOR ACCESS TO RESOURCES
LOW LEVEL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
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HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO TYPHOONS – LOCATED WITHIN PACIFIC TYPHOON BELT AREA
VISITED BY AVERAGE20 TYPHOONSEVERY YEAR
With the projected increase in temperature this could mean much stronger and more intense tropical cyclones.
1128 Actual tracks
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TY Reming (DURIAN) source:www.albay.gov.ph/reming NOV 2006
Typhoon Frank (Fengshen) June 21, 2008. (MV Princess of the Stars) www.
The Philippines has not been spared of the weather-related disturbances and disasters. The The Philippines has not been spared of the weather-related disturbances and disasters. The past typhoons have been past typhoons have been unusually heavy and devastating to our country and our people. unusually heavy and devastating to our country and our people.
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LANDSLIDES MUD FLOWS
SINCE 2003
AT LEAST 3,000 PEOPLE DIED DUE TO LANDSLIDES AND MUD FLOWS.
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An increase of 0.6104C from 1951-2006
ANNUAL MEAN TEMPERATURE
MEAN ANNUAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
An increase of 0.3472C from 1951-2006
MEAN ANNUAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
An increase of 0.8904C from 1951-2006
Observed Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the
1961-1990 normal values)
almost 3 times increase in maximum temperatures
BACKGROUND INFORMATION: observed changes
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TRENDS IN TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE PHILIPPINES
0
50
100
150
200
250
Luzon Visayas Mindanao
Nu
mb
er
51-80
61-90
71-00
LUZONVISAYAS
MINDANAO
195
1-8
0
196
1-9
0
197
1-0
0
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Is this the Future?• Global warming is inadequate to describe the
changes we can expect in the Earth System.
• The focus is not on temperature alone but also on the anticipated shifts in climate variability; specifically the
• projected increase in the frequency and severity of extreme events.
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• Mitigation - human intervention to reduce the source and enhance the sinks
• Adaptation- capacity to cope up with the adverse impacts of climate change- To reduce vulnerability
• Access to Financial resources - part of developed countries’ obligation under the convention to enhance adaptive capacities of developing countries
• Technology Transfer
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MITIGATION
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MITIGATION
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Risk Assessment and Hazard Mapping
Information and Education Campaign
Seasonal Forecasting
Monitoring and Early Warning System
S&T –based Climate Change Adaptation S&T –based Climate Change Adaptation StrategiesStrategies
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Enhancement of Monitoring System
CEBU
SC.GARDENQuezon City
MTSAT
NOAA
WAFS
LEGEND:
Chinese FY2
MODIS
Meteorological Satellite Facility
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Satellite Receiving Facilities
MODIS
FY2(Chinese)
NOAA
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Installation of more automatic weather stations
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• Meteorological Buoys
• Wind Profilers
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PROVISION OF SEASONAL
CLIMATE FORECAST
PERCENTAGE RAINFALL CONDITION
< 40%
41% - 80%
81% - 120%
> 120 %
below normal
near normal
above normal
way below normal
PERCENTAGE RAINFALL CONDITION
< 40%
41% - 80%
81% - 120%
> 120 %
PERCENTAGE RAINFALL CONDITION
< 40%
41% - 80%
81% - 120%
> 120 %
below normal
near normal
above normal
way below normal
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Drought Monitoring Drought Monitoring SystemSystem
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“Long-range planning does not deal with future
decisions, but with the future of present
decisions.”
Peter Drucker
WMO/OMM
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“tracking the sky . . . helping the country”
The real cause of the melting ice caps
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increase in malnutrition mixed effects on malaria increase number of people at risk with dengue
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DEVELOPMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOSDEVELOPMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS
WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN TO THE WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN TO THE PHILIPPINES AT THE END OF 21PHILIPPINES AT THE END OF 21STST CENTURY?CENTURY?
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Temperature Projection
1.8-3C increase
1.8-3C increase
2.1-2.7 C increase
2.1-2.7 C increase
Increase in entire archipelago;Greater increase in MAM
FUTURE (2075-2099)
Solis,2009 (Capacity Development for Adaptation to Climate Change in Asia-Climate Change Analysis)
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RAINFALL SCENARIOEND OF 21ST
CENTURY
JFM- An increase in rainfall (0.5-2 mm/day)
decrease over the mountainous areas (W.Luzon)
Eastern part wet, will be more wet
more dry
increase
+ Areas statistically significant at 95% level
AMJ - Rainfall reduction in entire archipelago (5-20%);
greater decrease over Luzon and the mountainous areas
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significant increase along the west coastal regions
-
-
-
-
JFM / AMJEND OF 21ST CENTURY
JAS – generally increasing
•Greater increase R1,IVB,R10
•Greater increase in convective precipitation (not shown)
• enhanced SW monsoon activity
+ Areas statistically significant at 95% level
OND - Decrease about 10-20%
Greater decrease over the mountainous area and coastal areas in w Luzon
Increase 10-20% in some parts of Mindanao
RAINFALL SCENARIO
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Intensity of precipitation events is projected to increase.
Even in areas where mean precipitation decreases, precipitation intensity is projected to increase but there would be longer periods between rainfall events.
“It rains less frequently, but when it does rain, there is more precipitation for a given event.” (Tebaldi et al. 2006)
Extremes will have more impact than changes in mean climate
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INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE TO ADDRESS CLIMATE CHANGE
1990
1st IPCC report
- the planet seems to be
warming
- Human activity
seems to be responsible
for it
1992
2nd Earth Summit, Rio de Janeiro
- UNFCCC was adopted
- Call for a stabilization
of GHG emissions by
2000
1994
UNFCCC entered
into force
- Philippines ratified UNFCCC
1997
Kyoto Protocol
was adopted at
COP 3, Kyoto
Conference
2005
Kyoto Protocol entered
into force
2007
4th IPCC report
- Equivocally, the planet is warming due
to man-made
activities
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2007
Bali roadmap adopted at
COP 13, Bali Conference
2008
Poznan Conference
(Poland)
2009
Copenhagen Protocol expected
- 2nd KP commitment
period
INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE TO ADDRESS CLIMATE CHANGE