2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
Världens eko
Carl Folke Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholms universitet Beijerinstitutet, Kungl. Vetenskapsakademien
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
Biosfär formad av människan
“Welcome to the Anthropocene Humans have changed the way the world works. Now they have to change the way they think about it, too
Humans have become a force of nature reshaping the planet on a geological scale—but at a far-faster-than-geological speed.”
May 28th, 2011
Reconnecting to the Biosphere
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
Perspektivet • Alltmer integrerade
ekonomier och samhällen
• Den levande resursbasen fundamentet för integreringen
• Miljöfrågor handlar om vår egen utveckling
säkerställa och möjliggöra en progressiv samhällsutveckling
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre De
Deutsch et al. 2007. Global Environmental Change 17:238-249
Fishmeal imports to shrimp farming in Thailand
Urbanisation, globalisation and seafood production
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
Hela jorden är sammanbunden i ett system – ekologiskt, socialt, politiskt och ekonomiskt
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
florianotte.webseiten.cc/ alexhaensel/alex/pho...
> 50% bor i urbana områden
Många har tappat kontakten med naturen
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
Ekosystemen levererar tjänster
Städer i Östersjöregionen 250 000 invånare
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Ecosystem services – the benefits people obtain from
ecosystems
www.MAweb.org
Ekosystemtjänster (inkl. matproduktion), beror av människans förmåga att samarbeta med
biosfären och stärka resiliensen
Carbon sinks Freshwater generation
Seafood production
Storm buffering
Pollination Grazing
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
Seafood management in Maine, USA a success story?
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
1900 1950
1975 1999
Stocks of predatory fish (cod, tuna, flatfish).
Source: Christensen et al. 2003, Fish and Fisheries
Figure 11
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
Lobster aquaculture and juicy dinners……… a gilded trap?
Rhode Island – 72% loss from shell disease
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
Food production must be based more on biodiversity and ecosystem services
than monocultures and fossil fuels
Rebuilding in harmony with nature
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
Tipping points
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
Critical transitions and regime shifts
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
Låg resiliens – plötsliga brytpunkter
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
Claussen, et al (1999) Geophysical Research Letters 26, 2037-2040.
Green Sahara
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre 2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Science Director
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre 2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Science Director Claussen, et al (1999) Geophysical Research Letters 26, 2037-2040.
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
Interactions – global markets, land use, disturbance,
regional tipping and climate
the case of the Borneo rainforests, and the weather event El Niño
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
Turning El Niño from creator to destroyer
e.g. Curran et al. 200. Science; Page et al. 2002. Nature
1997 fires - 13–40% of the mean annual global carbon emissions from fossil fuels
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre After Schellnhuber 2002
Switch and Choke Points In the Earth System
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
Aborigines arrive in Australia
Beginning of agriculture
Great European civilisations: Greek, Roman
Last Glacial-Interglacial Cycle
Source: GRIP ice core data (Greenland) And S. Oppenheimer, ”Out of Eden”, 2004
First migration of fully modern humans
out of Africa
Migrations of fully modern humans
from South Asia to Europe
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
The Resilience of the Earth System
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
Climate Change
Ocean acidification
Ozone depletion
Global Freshwater Use
Rate of Biodiversity
Loss
Atmospheric Aerosol Loading
Changes in land use
Chemical Pollution
Planetary Boundaries
Rate of N input to the biosphere, P-inflow to Oceans
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
A SAFE OPERATING SPACE FOR HUMANITY
to stay away from global tipping points
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
Resiliens Vända kris till
möjlighet
Förmåga att klara av oväntad förändring och kunna vidareutvecklas
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
Brist på resiliens – överraskningar
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
Resilience – turning crisis into opportunities
1. Buffra förändring
2. Aktiv anpassing
3. Transformering
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
Seafood management in Maine, USA a success story?
Goulburn-Broken agriculture
• Economically lucrative - thriving
• Dryland cropping, grazing, irrigated dairy and fruit production, connecting the region to global markets - one quarter of the State of Victoria's export earnings
• Thresholds with possible knock-on effects between them
• widespread clearing of native vegetation and high levels of water use for irrigation have resulted in rising water tables, with severe salinization problems
• Breaking the agricultural path transform, requires changing deep values and creating a new identity
Walker et al. 2009. E&S
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
Transformation for building social-ecological resilience of the Great Barrier Reef system
• Crisis - Shifting perspective
• From separate parts to an integrated whole
• Active transformation of governance
Olsson, Folke, Hughes, 2008. PNAS
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
Navigating the transition to ecosystem-based management of the Great Barrier Reef, Australia
• Making organizational changes
• Bridging science and policy
• Changing people’s perceptions
• Facilitating community participation and public consultation
• Gaining state and national political support
• Incorporating an understanding of ecosystem dynamics into the governance system to build capacity for managing ecosystem services
Enabling conditions, strategies and leadership for:
Olsson, Folke, Hughes 2008. PNAS
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
From Open Access to Ecosystem Stewardship of coastal marine resources in Chile --
Transforming governance
3. The “Window of Opportunity”
Stefan Gelcich et al. (2010) PNAS 107:16794-9
It is during the period of crisis or surprise that institutions and connections between them are most open to dramatic transformation.
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
Transformation of SES
Preparing the system for change
Navigating the transition
Building resilience of the new direction
Window of opportunity
Chile’s coastal resources Sweden’s urban landscapes Australia’s Great Barrier Reef
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
Active stewardship of Earth’s life-support Systems
Kristianstads Vattenrike, Southern Sweden
Real world examples of social-ecological systems providing new insights for governance of ecosystem services Serve as ’pockets of resilience’ in landscapes and seascapes in times of global environmental change
Olsson et al. 2005. Ecology & Society Schultz et al. in press. World Development
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
Actor groups that take part in navigating transitions and help develop and retain a social/collective memory of
ecosystem management in the face of change
• Leaders, stewards, brookers, middlemen
• Knowledge carriers and retainers
• Interpreters and sense makers
• Networkers and facilitaters
• Visionaries and inspirers • Innovators and
experimenters • Followers and reinforcers
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
Bridging organizations • Performing essential functions in
crafting effective responses to change in social-ecological systems
• Linking groups, networks and organizations across levels, creating the right links, at the right time, around the right issues
• Accessing and combining multiple sources of knowledge and interests
• Enhancing vertical and horizontal integration and social learning
Bridging organization
Folke et al. 2005, Hahn et al. 2006, Olsson et al. 2007
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
Skifte i perspektiv
• Värdefråga – Ödesfråga
• Bevara – Utveckla
• Minska trycket – Aktivt sköta
• Reglera o styra - Samförvalta
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
The Resilience Lens provides new, often surprising insights
2011-10-04 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre