Water and agriculture in Europe
under a changing climate
Martin ParryImperial College London
“
Rising atmospheric temperature
Rising sea level
Reductions in NH snow cover
Warming is “unequivocal”
THE KEY CHARACTERISTICS OF EUROPEAN CLIMATE CHANGE
• Annual temperatures increase at the rate of 0.1 to 0.4C/decade
• Hot summers will double in frequency by 2020 (increase x5 in S. Spain); 10 times as frequent by 2080
• Summers become drier in S. Europe
• Winters become wetter in N. Europe; and intensity of rainfall increases
• Additional risks: possibility of change in the Gulf Stream; at present little known about this.
Daily maximum temperaturesNumber of days per year above 30°C UK Met. Office
1 5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 200
Present 2080s
WATER AVAILABILITY
• Increased availability of water in northern Europe; increased risk of flooding.
• Reduced availability of water in southern Europe.
• And in the mountains: increased flood risk (20% increase of flood risk in Alps
• Reduced summer rainfall will increase risks of:– Irrigation water shortages
– Reduced diluting of pollution
– Reduced crop yields
– Soil loss on light lands
– Reduced water cooling
for power stations
Impacts of reduced Summer rainfall
• Heavier, more intense winter rainfall will increase risks of:
–River flooding–Soil leaching–Soil water-logging, –Difficult access to land
for animals/machines
Impacts of winter rainfall increase
…
Suitability for grain maize cultivation with increasing temperature
+5°C+4°C+3°C+2°C+1°Cbaseline (1961-1990)unsuitable
Expansion of suitable area with increased temperature
NORTHWARD SHIFDT OF FARMING POTENTIALSuitability for grain maize, sunflower and soya, 2050s
red/brown/blue: suitability extensiongreen/yellow/purple: Baseline 1961-90
Changes in wheat yield, 2080 (amount of agreement between 9 regional models, A2)
PRUDENCE
Reduced yield in all modelsIncreased yield in all modelsModels do not agree
France: Several thousand excess deaths
Dry Danube
Croatia - fires
UK train tracks buckle
HEATWAVEAUGUST,
2003 IN EUROPE
Effects of 2003 summer heat wave on EU agriculture
COPA
Yield change (%)
-60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10
Austria 197 m €
Spain 810 m €
Italy 4/5000 m €
Germay 1500 m €
France 4000 m €
(1500 m € for cattle)
Fodder/cattle
Wheat
Maize
Farmed landscape,Eastern England, 2050 ?
Univ of East Anglia, U.K.Northward movement of crops
Farm-scale biofuel power stationIntroduction of biofuel crops e.g. Miscanthus spp.
Increase in renewable energy sources
Farmed landscape, Eastern England, 2000
climate change over
Europe
Global climate change
First order impacts on food production
Second order effects on world
prices and demand
Global climate change
First order impacts on food production
Second order effects on world
prices and demand
Europe in the context of global climate change
Most key impacts stem from reduced water availability.Changes in run-off, 21st century. White areas are where less than two-thirds of models
agree, hatched are where 90% of models agree (IPCC SYR)
UndefinedSI > 75 : Very highSI > 63 : High SI > 50 : GoodSI > 35 : Medium SI > 20 : ModerateSI > 5 : Marginal SI > 0 : Very marginalNot suitableWater Suitability for rain-fed cereals (reference climate, 1961-90).
Change in suitability for rain-fed cereals (HadCM3-A1FI, 2080s).
-100-88-75-63-50-38-25-13013253850637588100
Financed adaptation
1 2 3 4
Global mean annual temperature relative to pre-industrialCancun agreed$100 bn target
funding
outcomefor current pledges
Financed adaptation
Impacts notavoided
1 2 3 4
Global mean annual temperature relative to pre-industrial
outcomefor current pledges
Financed adaptation
Impacts notavoided
1 2 3 4
Global mean annual temperature relative to pre-industrial
TASK1
TASK2
Conclusions (1) : Effects…
• Warmer in the north; drier in the south; intensification of rainfall; increased frequency of extremely hot days or seasons.
• This implies more benefits to the north; more “disbenefits” to the south.
• Will worsen current resource issues: e.g, more water shortage and heat stress in south; and more flooding in the centre, north and mountains.
• May aggravate current environmental problems: eg desertification in south; soil leaching in north.
• = a south-to-north geographical shift of climate resources in Europe; increasing the difference in regional resource endowment.
Conclusions (2) : Implications for policy in Europe
• Need : a) a north-to-south shift of support policies to compensate for shift of climate resources.
• Need: b) to “mainstream” climate change into EU policy development: eg
i) into environmental policies, such as directives on water, policies on desertification. (This has started).
ii) into regional support policies.
• In the global context, Europe faces less negative effects than most other parts of the world, implying:
a) There may be an opportunity to increase Europe’s share of world food production;
b) And, from the global viewpoint, it will be necessary to increase food production in Europe in order to maintain global food security.
Programme of Research On Climate Change Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation
http:// www.provia-climatechange.org