Download - Watersheds of the Sky
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Watersheds of the Skythe terrestrial origins of precipitation and the importance of landscapes for maintaining social-ecological resilience
May 23, 2012
Patrick W. Keys
Stockholm Resilience Centre
and Keys Consulting Inc.
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• Evaporation traveling through the atmosphere and falling out as precipitatione.g. Budkyo 1974; Lettau et al., 1979; Koster et al. 1986; Brubaker et al. 1993; Eltahir and Bras 1994; Savenije 1995
• Large regions of the terrestrial land surface provide evaporation for downwind precipitatione.g. Numaguti, 1999; Bosilovich and Chern, 2006; Dirmeyer and Brubaker, 2007; Dominguez and Kumar, 2008; Dirmeyer et al., 2009; van der Ent et al., 2010; Ellison et al., 2011; Keys et al., 2012
Moisture Recycling
Terrestrial land surface
Atmospheric
transport
Ocean
Evaporation Precipitation Evaporation
Atmospheric
transport
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Water Accounting Model (WAM)van der Ent et al. 2010
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Backtracking precipitation
• Reversing the WAM allows for the identification of specific evaporation source areas
• The precipitationshed “…the upwind atmosphere and surface that contributes evaporation to a specific location’s precipitation.”Keys et al. 2010
• The precipitationshed is a first step towards managing upwind rainfall
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Terrestrial evaporation dependent water-constrained, rainfed-agriculture
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Precipitationshed W. Sahel
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E. Sahel precipitationshed
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E. China precipitationshed
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N. China precipitationshed
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Argentina precipitationshed
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Pakistan-India precipitationshed
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S. Africa precipitationshed
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Seven Precipitationsheds
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Interpreting results
• Analysis reveals that many areas are dependent on recycled moisture and are vulnerable to changes in upwind moisture recycling.
• These areas would benefit from a stable provision of moisture during the growing season
• Upwind land-use planning should consider the benefits of maintaining the existing or integrating new tree cover into the agricultural landscape
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Policy considerations
• The precipitationshed is a spatially explicit method allowing the identification of stakeholders in source-sink relationships
• Scientists working with land use change and ecology need to work more closely with hydrologists and climatologists (and vice versa) to move this science forward
• Managers of different resource areas will need to cooperate on exchanging information and coordinate activities.
• Need to understand which areas contribute the most evaporation, and whether we can expect sudden or surprising land-use changes.
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Continuing questions
• What other livelihoods are particularly vulnerable to changes in upwind evaporation?
• How does agroforestry compare to ‘pure’ agriculture or ‘pure’ forest in terms of evaporation?
• What existing institutions might serve as useful models for developing precipitationshed management institutions?
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Thank you!
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Precipitationshed W. Sahel (absolute)
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E. China precipitationshed (absolute)
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N. China precipitationshed (absolute)
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E. Sahel precipitationshed (absolute)
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Argentina precipitationshed (absolute)
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Pakistan-India precipitationshed (absolute)
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S. Africa precipitationshed (absolute)
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Backtracking integration