10/11/2011
Consumer trends - Freshlogic 1
Wealth from Water
Market Information Session 1
©
Consumer buying trends and major influences
Overview
• Food buying overview
• Forces driving change
• What evidence are we seeing
• How we make sense of them
• Implications
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Consumer trends - Freshlogic 2
Our approach
MealpulseTM
Diverse sources
of data
Global trends &
developments Validate & assess impact
DocketdataAdwatch
Harvest and interpret
insights
THRUchain™ view
Mealpulse™
22-30%
70-78%
Household food spend
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Consumer trends - Freshlogic 3
Spend by household segment
Mealpulse™
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Consumer trends - Freshlogic 4
Shopping trips
I worry about my security
Tell me what I need to know, now
I want to do my bit
E-tailing works for me
I can cook, I want to
Intensity of the retail contest
Diverse households & lifestyles
Concern for our health
Global economics over the BBQ
Forces driving change
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Consumer trends - Freshlogic 5
1. I worry about my security
• Priority: restoring wealth
• Sensitivity to costs
• Now “cool to save”
• Eating at home = cheaper
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
120.0
130.0
Sep-2006
Dec-2006
Mar-2007
Jun-2007
Sep-2007
Dec-2007
Mar-2008
Jun-2008
Sep-2008
Dec-2008
Mar-2009
Jun-2009
Sep-2009
Dec-2009
Mar-2010
Jun-2010
Sep-2010
Dec-2010
Mar-2011
Jun-2011
Sep-2011
Westpac consumer sentiment
2. Intensity of the retail contest
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Q2
08
Q3
08
Q4
08
Q1
09
Q2
09
Q3
09
Q4
09
Q1
10
Q2
10
Q3
10
Q4
10
Q1
11
Q2
11
Q3
11
Q4
11
Q1
12
Retailer "same store" sales & food inflation
Woolworths Coles Food CPI
Coles' resurgenceWoolworths' ascendancy
5.2%
1.9%
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Consumer trends - Freshlogic 6
2. Intensity of the retail contest
• Daily updates feed
uncertainty & lock in a
cautious mode
• Another wealth hit?
• Changing economics for
local food processing
3. Global economics over the BBQ
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Consumer trends - Freshlogic 7
4. Not confidence inspiring
4. Tell me what I need to know, now
• Your story in 140 characters
• Enables wildfire activism
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Consumer trends - Freshlogic 8
More touch screens
….trust in what can be
delivered
Credit card use on line is
now OK…it wasn’t 10
years ago
What leverage is available
250 refrigerated
vans – Apr 11
$130m sales
80% fresh
1.8m boxes
$230m + sales
100 +
providers
$360m online
food &
700,000 apps
Sept 2011 – 200
grocery lines
5. E-tailing works for me
groceryrun.com.au
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Consumer trends - Freshlogic 9
6. I want to do my bit
• Looking for ways to act
• Sense for community
• All households involved
• Trade offs happening
Organic20%
Free Range
20%
©
Lots of messages…only the headlines retained
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Consumer trends - Freshlogic 10
7. Diversity in households & lifestyles
• Convenience a core demand
• 1 adult in 25% households
• Top up shopping the norm
• Smaller portions solve many
challenges
$-
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Items per shopping trip by time of day and average price
$0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35
Tomatoes
Loose leaf…
Pre-pack…
Mushrooms
Beans
Zucchini
Ginger
Cauliflower
Selling price per kgA
B
Average price for
vegetables $3.65 per kg
Demand for convenience
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Consumer trends - Freshlogic 11
Convenience – Berlin Fruit Logistica - Feb 2011
Smaller portion size
Demand for convenience
Re-establishing the heart of the home in
the kitchen through more home cooking
or at least greater interaction with food.
It has peaked in Australia….but will
remain as an influence
8. I can cook, I want to
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Consumer trends - Freshlogic 12
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From To
Food Service – new formats
Pop up stores & street food
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Consumer trends - Freshlogic 13
9. Concerned for our health
• Always an umbrella
• Higher profile of healthy
eating
• Sensitivity to additives
• Regulators in catch up
mode
I worry about my security
Tell me what I need to know, now
I want to do my bit
E-tailing works for me
I can cook, I want to
Intensity of the retail contest
Diverse households & lifestyles
Concern for our health
Global economics over the BBQ
Forces driving food market change
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Consumer trends - Freshlogic 14
Implications
• Competitive conditions look set to continue
• A discerning and unforgiving consumer
• Are our products suitable for a Top-up shop?
• Smaller portions are in demand?
• Are ethical food signals clear?
• Where is the market growth?
• What are the emerging channels worth targeting?
• How do I keep informed?
More questions than answers
Contact
Martin Kneebone
Director
Freshlogic
Visit
freshlogic.com.au
Receive freshIncite
©
This workshop was presented by food industry expert Martin Kneebone of Freshlogic. For more information contact: Freshlogic Level 3, 192B Burwood Road Hawthorn, Victoria 3122 Australia
Phone: +61 3 98181588
Email: [email protected]
www.freshlogic.com.au
Disclaimer Information in this publication is intended for general information only and does not constitute professional advice and should not be relied upon as such. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any information in this publication. Readers should make their own enquiries and seek independent professional advice before acting on relying on any of the information provided. The Crown, its officers, employees and agents do not accept liability however arising, including liability for negligence, for any loss resulting from the use of or reliance upon information in this publication.