Weekly Technical
August 28, 2017
Research Analysts
Dharmesh Shah [email protected]
Nitin Kunte, CMT [email protected]
Dipesh Dagha [email protected]
Pabitro Mukherjee [email protected]
Vinayak Parmar [email protected]
2
Equity benchmarks settled marginally higher after recovering all losses incurred at the start of a truncated week. The Sensex ended at 31596, up 71 points while the
Nifty was up by 19 points to 9857. Broader markets also settled marginally higher as the BSE midcap and small cap indices rose 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively.
The weekly price action resulted in a Long Legged Doji candle comprising large lower shadow that highlights persistent demand at the key value area of 9700 for
third consecutive week precisely in line with our expectations. As highlighted in the earlier edition, the market is undergoing time wise consolidation while forming a
higher base above the key support of 9700 whereas the focus has turned to stock specific action. In the entire up move since January 2017, intermediate corrective
phases have not lasted more than three to four weeks post, while the index has resumed uptrend. Based on this tendency, we expect the current consolidation to
conclude over the coming week whereby it provides a good opportunity to enter quality stocks in a staggered manner. In the upcoming week, we expect the index
to oscillate between the broad range of 9700 and 9950. A decisive close above 9950 will trigger short covering and open further positive options, going forward.
Healthy consolidation within structural uptrend provides opportunity…
• The Nifty behaved precisely in line with our expectations and extended the range
bound consolidation in last week’s trade. The market seems to be absorbing
adverse news flows like geopolitical tensions on the Korean peninsula, Infosys
boardroom tussle and FII outflows while defending its key value area of 9700
over the last three weeks. It highlights the underlying strength and validates the
presence of strong demand at elevated levels. We believe the current
consolidation is part of the larger degree uptrend. Therefore, one should
concentrate on stock specific action and ignore the noise
• The key observation over last couple of weeks is that broader markets
represented by midcap and small cap indices have attracted demand after the
initial slump towards their May 2017 lows. The heavily beaten down pharma
space has also seen some buying interest emerge after approaching lower band
of long term falling channel. Meanwhile, leading sectors like metal and FMCG
have remained resilient during the recent corrective phase. Even the sectoral
heavyweight banking index has seen a healthy breather. All in all, sectoral
standing also corroborates the overall robust price structure
• Time wise, the down move from life-time high of 10137 to 9685 occurred in eight
sessions whereas the index has taken eight sessions so far to retrace about
61.8% of fall. Even to a smaller degree, pullback from 9685 to 9947, taking three
sessions, has been retraced by 80% in five sessions. Lack of faster retracement
in either direction highlights the range bound scenario and indicates continuance
of ongoing consolidation between 9700 and 9950 in the coming week. We do not
expect the price wise correction to extend beyond the 9700 region in the present
scenario as it is the confluence of lower band of expending channel comprising
up move since April 2017 till date and previous breakout area
• Among oscillators, the 14 week RSI has approached its bull market support zone
of 55 to 60 readings, which would lead to supportive efforts in the coming weeks
• Stock: Buy Asian Granito in range of | 420- 430, Target | 476 , Stop loss | 398
• Sectors: We expect banking, FMCG and metal sectors to perform well going
forward. The pharma and It sector is likely to enter consolidation in the short
term.
14 week RSI has approached its bull market support zone of 55-60 readings
Resistance: 9950, 10050
Support: 9780, 9700
10137
9709
3
Nifty Bank Futures (24330): Base formation at key value area provides opportunity…
• The Nifty Bank index recovered from an early slump to end the week on a high
note led by private banking heavyweights while select PSU banking stocks
also garnered supportive efforts at lower levels. The near month Nifty Bank
futures settled at 24330 up 233 points or 0.97% for the week
• The weekly price action formed a bull candle, which maintained a lower high
lower low compared to the previous session. However, the long lower shadow
highlights demand emerging at the key value area of 23900 region. Follow
through strength and close above the upper band of last two weeks
consolidation range above 24500 will signal conclusion of current corrective
phase and indicate resumption of upward momentum. Failure to do so, will
lead to extension of the ongoing sideways consolidation in the coming weeks
• The Nifty Bank index behaved precisely in line with our expectations as it
attracted strong demand after approaching its key value zone place between
the 23700-23900 region being the confluence of following:
Lower band of expanding channel in place since March 2017 is at 24000
61.8% retracement of the June-August up move is placed at 23870
Bullish gap area formed on July 13, 2017 is between 23810 -23721
Breakout area of June 2017 consolidation is at 23700 region
• Going forward, we expect the index to extend the ongoing consolidation and
oscillate between the broad range of 23700 and 24500 amid stock specific
action. The immediate hurdle for the index is placed around 24500 region as it
is the confluence of 61.8% retracement of previous weeks decline and value of
overhead falling trendline joining recent lower highs. A decisive close above
the 24500 will signal conclusion of the current corrective phase and open up
further positive options going forward. We believe the overall price structure
remains positive and the current breather forms part of the larger degree
uptrend. Therefore, it should be used as incremental buying opportunity to
enter into quality stocks in a staggered manner
• Among oscillators, the 14 week RSI is seen flattening out after it slipped below
its previous swing low of 70 reading while price is seen holding its key support
base. It indicates a pause in the momentum and suggests continuance of the
secondary consolidation over the coming weeks
CNX Bank Nifty Weekly Bar Chart
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
Resistance: 24500, 24750
Support: 24110, 23900
RSI has flattened out after moving below its previous low
25260
• During the previous week, the share price of Asian
Granito India has rebounded from near the crucial
support area of | 390-410 region as it was the
confluence of following technical parameters :
The 61.8% retracement of the previous rally
from | 334 to | 500 is placed around | 395
The lower band of the medium term rising
channel support joining the lows since
November 2016 is placed around | 400 region
The rising 21 weeks EMA, which as acted as
major support for the stock in CY17 is also
placed around | 400 levels
• The stock continues to form a higher peak and
higher trough on the weekly chart highlighting
strength and the overall positive price structure
• The volume behaviour support continuance of the
uptrend as the up move in the previous week from
the support level was on the back of strong volume
of almost double of the 10 weeks average volume of
2.5 lakh share per week indicating larger
participation in the direction of the trend
• Among oscillators, the weekly stochastic has
generated a buy signal moving above its three
period’s average indicating reversal of the corrective
trend
• Based on the above technical observation, we
believe the corrective decline has approached
maturity and the stock is likely to retrace 80% of the
previous decline from | 500 to | 380 placed at | 476
levels in the short-term
CMP: | 434.75 Buying range: | 420.00-430.00 Target: | 476.00 Stop loss: | 398.00
Weekly Bar Chart
Weekly Pick: Asian Granito India (ASIGRA): Price rebounding from major support area...
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research * Call has been initiated on I Click to Gain on August 24, 2017 at 10:52 hrs
80% retracement of
previous decline @ 476
Weekly stochastic generated a buy signal thus validates the positive bias in price
176
305 334
396
380
Strong volume at the support area indicate larger
participation in direction of trend
Price rebounding from major support area with strong volume
signals reversal of the corrective trend and provides fresh entry
opportunity to ride the next up move in the stock
Price rebounding from near the support
area of | 400 being confluence of:
- 21 weeks EMA
- The lower band of the rising channel
- 61.8% retracement of previous up move
5
Deal Team – At Your ServiceTrend Scanner
Positive Trends
Negative Trends
Candlestick Pattern
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
Legend
Positive and Negative Trends:
The stocks listed in the positive and negative trends section above have been identified after running multiple technical queries based on combination of
various technical parameters applied on a group of NSE cash stocks. The query modules are designed to recognise stocks, which are either at attractive
technical entry levels based on overall price structure or resolving out of medium term consolidation. Consequently the query modules are also aimed at
identifying the stocks which are under performers or in established down trends and therefore may not be good bets from short to medium term perspective.
Candlestick patterns:
Candlestick formations on weekly time interval charts typically point towards the prevailing sentiment comprising the entire trading week and could prove as
an important tool for short term traders. By themselves, the patterns do not carry any price target but only an indication of change in market behaviour. More
importance needs to be given to the placement of the pattern within larger trend. A more detailed description of Candlestick patterns and the way to
understand them is listed at the end of the report
Scrip Name Close 50 days EMA 100 days EMA Delivery % 5 days Averge
Bosch 21,676.0 23,396.0 23,308.0 35.60
BHEL 127.0 138.0 143.0 34.50
Bullish Candlestick Formations Bearish Candlestick Formations
Scrip Name Pattern name LTP Scrip Name Pattern name LTP
Wockhardt Engulfing 608.3 Crompton Evening Star 214.0
Max India Piercing Line 142.0 Bosch Continuation 21676.3
Bharti Airtel Continuation 433.0 Exide India Continuation 202.6
HPCL Continuation 466.2 BHEL Continuation 127.0
Indusind Bank Continuation 1667.7 Dabur Engulfing 300.1
JSW Steel Continuation 246.5
State Bank of India Hammer 280.3
Tata Steel Continuation 639.0
Scrip Name Close 50 days EMA 100 days EMA Delivery % 5 days Averge
Maruti 7,612.9 7,457.0 7,117.0 39.40
Shipping Corporation 94.7 84.0 80.0 42.20
Colgate Palmolive 1,093.8 1,067.0 1,044.0 59.00
HEG 523.4 425.0 366.0 60.20
6
Market Activity
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
Global Markets Domestic Sectoral Indices Performance
Global Currencies, Commodities & Bond Yields
Nifty Gainers / Losers for the week (%)
INDICES Current 1Wk 1M 3M
Sensex 31596.06 0.2 -2.9 4.0
Nifty 9857.05 0.2 -2.2 5.0
Auto 23548 -1.0 -3.9 2.0
Banking 27454.2 1.0 -3.4 5.4
Capital goods 17161.36 -0.3 -3.7 -2.4
Cons durables 17419.01 -1.6 7.7 13.5
FMCG 10018.53 -0.6 -0.5 2.2
Healthcare 13226.29 2.2 -10.5 -9.3
IT 10021.64 -0.6 -4.6 -1.8
Metal 13054.54 0.9 4.4 14.5
Oil & gas 14861.52 0.5 4.9 8.9
Power 2244.21 -1.8 -2.5 0.7
Realty 2094.1 0.2 -4.4 2.3
BSE 500 13617.08 0.2 -0.9 5.4
BSE midcap 15252.10 0.3 -3.0 3.2
BSE small cap 15646.60 0.2 -4.4 2.2
5.8 5.4
3.9 3.4
-2.6 -2.9 -2.9 -3.0
-11.6
-7.6
-3.6
0.4
4.4
8.4
LU
PIN
DR
RED
DY
AU
RO
PH
AR
MA
AX
ISB
AN
K
HER
OM
OTO
CO
INFR
ATEL
BA
JA
J-A
UTO
BA
NKB
AR
OD
A
7,401.5
DAX Index
UKX Index
0.0%
27,848.2
1.1%
3.0%
HSI Index
INDU Index
NKY Index
0.0%
19,729.7
0.6%
21,813.7 12,167.9
IBOV Index
3,331.5
71,073.7
3.4%
SHCOMP Index
1.9%
CAC Index
-0.2%
5,104.3
0.00
-3.1 bps
2.17
-2.6 bps
EURO 10 Year JPY 10 Year
India 10 year US 10 Year6.54
2.9 bps
0.38
-3.5 bps
Copper (tonne)6,648.50
0.7% 3.0%
Brent Crude/barrel52.51
Gold/ounce1,294.56
Silver (ounce)17.1
-0.3% 0.9%
Japanese Yen109.13
Swiss Franc0.96
-0.1% -1.0%
Euro1.19
British Pound1.29
1.4% 0.1%
Rupee (|)64.03
Dollar Index92.49
0.2% -1.0%
77
Deal Team – At Your ServiceMarket Activity
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
Institutional flow trends of last 12 months
Weekly market breadth trends
12612
9071
10443
-4306
-18244
-8176
-1177
9902
30906
2394
7711
3617
5161
-14150
248
698
1521
8106
9900
6547
4777
-23
2368
8916
6725
4873
8299
10828
19000.00
24000.00
29000.00
34000.00
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
July
'16
Aug'1
6
Sep'1
6
Oct'16
Nov'1
6
Dec'1
6
Jan'1
7
Feb'1
7
Mar'17
Apr'17
May'1
7
Jun'1
7
July
'17
Aug'1
7
Months
FII DII Sensex
50%
60%
50%
51%
47%
44%
35%
59%
49%
50%
40%
50%
49%
53%
56%
65%
41%
51%
3092231361
3202132029
32310 3232531214
31525 31596
20000
21500
23000
24500
26000
27500
29000
30500
32000
33500
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
30-Jun-17 7-Jul-17 14-Jul-17 21-Jul-17 28-Jul-17 4-Aug-17 11-Aug-17 18-Aug-17 25-Aug-17
Percentage
Week Ended
Advance % Decline % Sensex
88
Deal Team – At Your ServiceDow Jones (21813): Index to extend consolidation...
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average snapped its two
week’s losing streak ahead of key meeting of central
bankers even as key Trump aides left the
administration triggering concerns over policy
execution. The Dow Jones Industrial average settled
higher by 139 points or 0.64% at 21813
• The weekly price action formed a counter attack bull
candle, which pierced through last week’s bear
candle by more than 50% indicating buying support
at lower end. It, however, carries lower high-low
maintaining corrective bias. Still, it is resisting at
trend line connecting November 2016 – May 2017
lows
• The index is seen under profit booking after hitting
high of 22179. On the downside, the key support is
seen at 21500 as it is 38.2% retracement of May-
August 2017 rally (20554-22179)
• In coming weeks, the index is likely to enter a
consolidation phase in the range of 22250-21500
after the recent strong rally
• The weekly stochastic oscillator is reacting lower
from the overbought territory and supports further
consolidation
• For the coming week, the DJIA has support at
21630, 21500 while resistance is at 22050, 22180
Dow Jones Industrials - Weekly Bar Chart
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
18668
Index likely to enter consolidation in range of 21500-22250 in the
coming weeks after the recent strong up move
Weekly stochastic reacting lower from the overbought territory and is likely
to continue with its current corrective bias
17884
20554
21169Support
@ 21500
17063
22179
99
Deal Team – At Your ServiceGerman Dax (12167): Bias to remain positive above 11900...
• The German equity benchmark gained amid
softening geopolitical tensions and strong Euro.
Frankfurt Dax index closed flat settled at 12165, up
by just 2 points
• The weekly price action formed a high wave candle
with shadows on either side indicating intra week
volatility. Index continued to trade within last week’s
large bear candle’s range (12336-11934). It indicates
consolidation near support. Bias for the index,
however, remains negative unless it sustains above
last three week’s identical highs in the range of
12350
• As detailed in earlier editions, the index is seen in a
corrective mode after it breached 12500 in late
June. The key support for the index is placed near
11900 as it is the confluence of following technical
parameters :
The 38.2% retracement of November 2016 –
June 2017 rally (10174 – 12951)
The consolidation area of March-April 2017 is
also placed around 11900
• The sustained move above 12350 would indicate
conclusion of corrective phase and lead the index
towards 12600-12700 region as it is the high of July
2017 and the 61.8% retracement of the current
decline (12951-11993)
• The weekly stochastic oscillator has plunged to the
oversold territory with reading of 25 and is likely to
attract buying support near 11900 mark
• For the coming week, the Dax has support at 11900,
11720 while resistance is at 12340,12470
German Dax - Weekly Bar Chart
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
11893
10802
Weekly Stochastics seen bouncing off oversold readings
12951
10802
Index has major support at 11900 region :
-38.2% retracement
- Previous consolidation area
1010
Deal Team – At Your ServiceHang Seng (27848): Index likely to challenge 2015 highs...
• The Hang Seng extended gains ahead of a meeting
of key central bankers at Jackson Hole in a week
which saw Typhoon Hato lashing island country.
The Hang Seng settled higher by 801 points or
2.96% at 27848 for the week
• Weekly price action formed a strong bull candle in
follow through to last week’s inverted hammer as
index continued to form higher high-low sequence
indicating bullish trend
• The index registered fresh 52-week high after two
weeks of correction indicating continuation of
bullish trend. The key support for index in current
context is now being revised upwards at 26800
levels as it is the confluence of following technical
parameters :
The recent correction low at 26863
The 38.2% retracement of July-August 2017
rally (25199-27876)
• With last week’s rally, the index looks set to
challenge its May 2015 peak @ 28588 levels
• The weekly stochastic oscillator has eased out of
overbought territory and currently holding in the
positive terrain
• For the coming week, the Hang Seng has support at
27316, 26950 while resistance is at 28200, 28470
Hang Seng - Weekly Bar Chart
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
18279
Index likely to challenge May 2015 peak @ 28588
Weekly stochastic has generated a bearish crossover
below its three period’s average
24364
21489
Support
@ 26800
28588
23724
25199
1111
Deal Team – At Your ServiceRupee spot (64.03): Pullback amid oversold conditions...
• The rupee ended marginally higher after a choppy
trading week helped by weakness in the US dollar
overseas even as foreign investors continued to pull
out of domestic equities and bonds. The rupee
ended at 64.03, 12 bps higher for the week
• The price action resulted in a small bar, which
remained enclosed within the previous week’s high-
low range indicating non directional bias. US$INR
has been trading in a broad range of 63.50-65.10 for
past few months indicating consolidation after sharp
rally
• Structurally, the underlying trend for rupee
continues to remain strong as long as rupee trades
below 65 mark over medium term
• However, having achieved 50% retracement of
2014-17 rally (58.33 – 68.86) domestic currency may
take a breather while maintaining positive bias. A
sustained break below 63.50 would pave the way
for 62 levels in the short-term as it is the 61.8%
retracement of 2014-17 rally
• The weekly RSI is rebounding after posing positive
divergence against price and may lead to further
pullback efforts in coming weeks
• For coming week, US$INR support is at 63.85, 63.70
whereas resistances are at 64.30, 64.60
Weekly Bar Chart - US$INR
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
May 2014
@ 58.33
63.88
61.30
66.89
29 weeks
|5.55
32 weeks
| 5.59
64.70
68.7920 weeks
| 4.1
November 2016
@68.86
52-week
EMA
50% retracement
@ 63.60
1212
Deal Team – At Your ServiceGold ($1292): Marking time at upper band of trading range…
• Gold prices fluctuated between gains and losses in a
narrow range ahead of key speeches from central
bankers at the Jackson Hole Federal Reserve
gathering. The precious metal ended the week flat at
$1292
• The weekly price action resulted in a high wave
candle formed completely inside previous weeks
candle’s high/low range. It indicates pause in the
momentum amid consolidation at the upper band of
five month trading range. Structurally, bullion prices
have taken seven weeks to retrace preceding five
week fall. Lack of faster retracement of the last falling
segment highlights the overall consolidation bias and
therefore prices will be vulnerable to bouts of profit
booking at the upper band of five months trading
range placed around $1300 region
• Gold prices have approached the upper band of last
five months broader trading range of $1200 to $1300.
Prices have faced multiple headwinds at the upper
band of this range and reversed lower on every
occasion in last five months. We believe only a
decisive close above $1300 will open further upside
potential towards $1320-$1340 region. The 78.6%
retracement of the July to December 2016 fall ($1374
to $1123) placed around $1320 and multiple swing
highs of August and September 2016 placed around
$1340 make this the next major resistance zone for
bullion
• Among oscillators, the weekly RSI has turned
sideways after approaching the upper band of its
oscillation range of 40 and 60 level indicating
continuance of the overall range bound bias going
forward
Gold Weekly Candlestick Chart
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
RSI has turned sideways at upper band of its consolidation band of 40 to 60 readings.
1374
1338
1122
1297 1298
1313
Deal Team – At Your ServiceBrent crude ($52.21): Rudderless consolidation to continue…
• Crude oil prices traded choppy in a narrow range
before settling marginally lower after number of active
Number of US rigs drilling for oil fell by five to 763
rigs last week. For the week, Brent crude prices
settled at $52.21 down by 0.97%
• The price action resulted in a high wave candle
formed completely inside previous weeks high/low
range indicating narrow range bound trade amid lack
of directional bias. Going forward, we expect Brent
crude to remain volatile and extend the consolidation
between the broad range of $50 to $54 levels over the
coming weeks.
• The key overhead trend line ($54) has provided stiff
resistance during the entire decline since January
2017 till date. Structurally, prices have so far retraced
the last falling segment consuming five weeks ($54.67
to $44.35) by 80% while consuming nine weeks.
Slower pace of retracement highlights the underlying
weak bias. We believe price will remain subject to
bouts of selling pressure around $54 region.
• The short-term rising trend line in place since June
2017 provides cushion around $50 region. A decisive
break and close below $50 will trigger further
downward bias in the short term.
• Among oscillators, the weekly RSI is seen facing
hurdle at its key overhead falling trendline suggesting
continuance of the range bound consolidation in the
near term
Brent Crude Weekly Candlestick Chart
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
Weekly RSI is resisting at its falling trendline indicating continuance of consolidation in near term
42
43
57-58
54
1414
Deal Team – At Your ServiceF&O Stocks Pivot points for the Week (August 28 – 01 September, 2017)
Source: NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research
COMPANY CMP S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 Trend
SENSEX 31596.06 31432.75 31318.35 31137.35 31661.55 31776.00 31956.95 Neutral
BANK NIFTY FUTURE 24330.30 24267.20 24137.75 24008.25 24526.15 24672.90 24819.65 +ve
NIFTY FUTURE 9873.25 9822.60 9789.00 9739.25 9889.90 9923.50 9973.25 Neutral
BANK NIFTY 24274.20 24226.75 24087.15 23947.55 24505.95 24648.50 24791.05 +ve
NIFTY 9857.05 9806.05 9770.00 9710.75 9878.15 9914.25 9973.50 Neutral
ACC 1781.50 1764.75 1746.25 1727.80 1785.20 1795.40 1805.65 -ve
ADANI PORT 380.05 375.00 370.25 364.45 384.50 389.30 395.05 Neutral
AMBUJA CEMENT 275.40 273.55 271.95 268.45 276.80 278.45 281.95 Neutral
ASIAN PAINTS 1135.60 1125.80 1118.05 1107.90 1141.30 1149.05 1159.25 Neutral
AUROBINDO PHARMA 732.15 725.85 715.10 704.30 747.40 756.75 766.10 +ve
AXIS BANK 506.85 504.95 500.25 495.60 514.30 518.50 522.70 +ve
BAJAJ AUTO 2728.55 2685.75 2665.25 2644.70 2740.70 2768.20 2795.65 -ve
BOB 142.85 137.50 133.85 130.20 143.20 146.05 148.90 -ve
BPCL 508.20 507.00 501.45 495.85 518.15 529.75 541.30 +ve
BHARTI AIRTEL 432.95 430.45 426.00 421.55 439.35 444.00 448.70 +ve
BHEL 126.95 123.45 121.80 120.10 127.10 128.90 130.70 -ve
BHARTI INFRATEL 383.90 377.30 372.55 367.85 385.40 389.45 393.55 -ve
BOSCH 21676.25 21437.15 21098.90 20760.70 21777.40 21947.50 22117.65 -ve
CIPLA 574.05 571.20 566.05 560.90 581.50 594.65 607.80 +ve
COAL INDIA 241.30 236.10 232.40 228.65 242.00 245.00 247.95 -ve
DR.REDDY'S LAB. 2088.15 2062.30 2017.55 1972.85 2151.75 2169.20 2186.65 +ve
EICHER MOTORS 30750.90 29949.00 29456.10 28963.25 30882.20 31348.75 31815.35 -ve
GAIL 383.00 382.40 377.80 373.15 391.65 395.60 399.55 +ve
GRASIM 1134.45 1129.35 1118.25 1107.15 1151.60 1167.20 1182.85 +ve
HCL TECH 867.50 858.25 849.85 841.40 869.90 875.70 881.50 -ve
HDFC 1757.35 1754.75 1745.00 1735.25 1774.25 1792.90 1811.60 +ve
HERO MOTO 3882.65 3819.40 3768.60 3717.85 3905.75 3948.95 3992.10 -ve
HINDALCO 233.00 228.95 225.80 221.15 235.20 238.35 242.95 Neutral
HIND. UNILEVER 1179.70 1167.35 1152.55 1137.80 1183.70 1191.85 1200.05 -ve
IDEA CELLULAR 90.00 88.75 87.75 85.95 90.80 91.80 93.60 Neutral
INDUSIND BANK 1667.70 1660.95 1642.70 1624.45 1697.45 1712.40 1727.30 +ve
INFOSYS 912.15 889.45 873.45 837.15 921.45 937.45 973.70 Neutral
ITC 281.45 280.65 279.35 275.95 283.25 284.60 287.95 Neutral
KOTAK MAH.BANK 972.10 960.15 950.80 941.45 974.00 980.95 987.85 -ve
L & T 1131.70 1129.95 1123.25 1116.50 1143.45 1152.95 1162.45 +ve
LUPIN 992.50 981.65 961.70 941.75 1021.55 1031.45 1041.35 +ve
M & M 1375.15 1370.30 1363.80 1355.85 1383.25 1389.70 1397.70 Neutral
MARUTI SUZUKI 7612.85 7551.70 7505.95 7440.25 7643.15 7688.90 7754.60 Neutral
1515
Source: NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research
F&O stocks pivot points for the week (August 28 – 01 September, 2017)
COMPANY CMP S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 Trend
NTPC 169.00 165.75 163.30 160.80 169.70 171.70 173.65 -ve
ONGC 159.45 155.70 155.00 154.30 159.80 161.85 163.85 -ve
POWER GRID 220.95 217.40 215.95 214.45 221.05 222.90 224.70 -ve
RELIANCE 1568.05 1549.75 1536.90 1524.05 1569.75 1579.75 1589.70 -ve
SBI 280.30 278.95 276.40 273.85 284.10 286.70 289.35 +ve
SUN PHARMA 483.00 480.00 472.70 465.45 494.50 508.95 523.35 +ve
TATA MOTOR DVR 227.35 226.75 225.05 223.35 230.20 233.10 236.05 +ve
TATA MOTORS 384.15 382.30 378.65 375.00 389.65 394.60 399.55 +ve
TATA POWER 79.15 78.00 76.30 74.55 79.45 80.20 80.90 -ve
TCS 2496.60 2463.50 2441.55 2419.60 2501.45 2520.40 2539.35 -ve
TECH MAHINDRA 427.70 420.80 411.70 402.60 430.10 434.75 439.45 -ve
TATA STEEL 639.00 635.15 628.60 622.10 648.25 658.30 668.35 +ve
ULTRATECH CEMENT 3939.65 3925.90 3893.90 3856.80 3989.90 4021.85 4059.00 Neutral
WIPRO 289.40 286.80 285.85 284.90 289.65 291.10 292.50 -ve
YES BANK 1719.45 1702.70 1685.95 1665.80 1736.20 1752.95 1773.15 Neutral
ZEE 511.70 508.40 504.85 497.45 515.50 519.00 526.45 Neutral
1616
Deal Team – At Your ServiceForthcoming Economic Events Calendar
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
Date Event
India
31-Aug Fiscal Deficit INR Crore
31-Aug GDP YoY
1-Sep Nikkei India PMI Mfg
Japan
29-Aug Jobless Rate
29-Aug Job-To-Applicant Ratio
30-Aug Retail Sales MoM
30-Aug Dept. Store, Supermarket Sales
30-Aug Small Business Confidence
US
28-Aug Retail Inventories MoM
30-Aug GDP Annualized QoQ
31-Aug Pending Home Sales MoM
31-Aug Initial Jobless Claims
1-Sep Unemployment Rate
Euro Zone
28-Aug M3 Money Supply YoY
30-Aug Economic Confidence
30-Aug Industrial Confidence
30-Aug Consumer Confidence
UK
28-Aug Nationwide House PX MoM
30-Aug Net Consumer Credit
1717
Deal Team – At Your ServiceNotes
• Please execute the recommendation within the prescribed range provided in the report
• Once the recommendation is executed, it is advisable to keep strict stop loss as provided in the report on closing basis
• We adapt a trading strategy of booking 50% profit when the position is in profit by 3-5% and trail stop loss on remaining position to the
entry point
• In recommendations where it is advised to buy on declines, if the target price is hit before activation of the call in prescribed range then the
recommendation is considered not initiated
• The recommendations are valid only for the week and are to be squared off by the end of the week. In case we intend to carry forward the
position, it will be communicated through separate mail
Trading Portfolio allocation
• It is recommended to spread out the trading corpus in a proportionate manner between the various technical research products
• Please avoid allocating the entire trading corpus to a single stock or a single product segment
• Within each product segment it is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation
• For example: The ‘Daily Calls’ product carries 3 to 4 intraday recommendations. It is advisable to allocate equal amount to each
recommendation
18
Recommended product wise trading portfolio allocation
Duration
Daily Calls 8% 2-3% 3-4 Stocks 0.5-1% 2-3% Intraday
Stocks on the Move 6% 3-5% 7-10 Per Months 7-10% 10-15% 3 Months
Weekly Calls 8% 3-5% 1-2 Stocks 5-7% 7-10% 1 Week
Weekly Technicals 8% 3-5% 1-2 Stocks 5-7% 7-10% 1 Week
Monthly Call 15% 5% 2-3 Stocks 7-10% 10-15% 1 Month
Monthly Technical 15% 2-4% 5-8 Stocks 7-10% 10-15% 1 Month
Techno Funda 15% 5-10% 1-2 Stocks 10% and above 15% and above 6 Months
Gladiator Stocks 15% 5-10% 1-2 Stocks 15% and above 20% and above 6 Months
Cash 10% -
100%
Number of Calls
Return Objective
Frontline Stocks Mid Cap StocksProduct Product wise
allocation
Allocations
Max allocation in
1 Stock
1919
Deal Team – At Your ServiceCandlesticks Glossary:
Candlestick patterns describe the market sentiment for the specified period. Some of the formations suggest reversal of sentiment (trend) and, therefore, are
important for a chart reader. By themselves, the patterns do not carry any price target but only an indication of change in market behaviour. More importance
needs to be given to the placement of the pattern within larger trend
Morning Star: Potential bottom reversal pattern made of three candle lines. The first sizeable black candle reflects a market in which the bears are in complete
charge. The next candle line--the small real body--shows a slight diminution of the bearish force. The white candle that makes up the last part of the morning
star visually displays the bulls are gaining the upper hand. Lowest low amongst three candles becomes technical support
Bullish Engulfing Line: A potential bottom reversal pattern. This pattern typically appears at the culmination of a decline or downtrend. The market falls, and a
black candle forms (ideally a small black candle). Next, a white real body wraps around the prior session’s black body. Low of the pattern becomes short term
support for prices
Piercing Line: Potential bottom reversal pattern. A black body forms in the downtrend. The market continues moving south on the next session’s open but that
session culminates in a white real body that closes (e.g. pierces) than half way or more into the prior black body. Lowest low between two candles is referred to
as technical support for prices
Hammer: A candlestick line which, during a downtrend, has a very long lower shadow and small real body (black or white) at the top end of the session’s
range. There should be no, or a very small, upper shadow. Pattern suggests buying support during declines and needs confirmation in terms of sustainability of
prices above head of the Hammer in following session
Evening Star: Potential Top reversal pattern made of three candle lines. Comparable with a traffic signal. First white candle reflects a market in bullish trend.
The next candle line--the small real body—warns waning momentum. The black candle that completes the evening star visually exhibits that prior up trend has
stopped or reversed
Bearish Engulfing Line: Potential top reversal signal. This two candlestick pattern emerges during a rally. A black candle real body wraps around a white real
body (classically a small white candle) Highest high between two candles becomes resistance level for prices for future reference
Dark Cloud cover: A dark cloud cover forms a top reversal pattern. The first session should be a strong, white real body. The second session’s price opens over
the prior session’s high (or above the prior session’s close). By the end of the second session, it closes near the low of the session and should fall well into the
prior session’s white body. Pattern suggests that market has a poor chance of rising immediately
Shooting Star: A single candlestick line during a rally in which there is a small real body (white or black) at the bottom end of the session's range and a very
long upper shadow. The candle line should also have little or no lower shadow. Pattern suggest the trouble for prices overhead
Continuation Patterns: Other than widely known Candlestick reversal patterns discussed above, there are numerous patterns mentioned in literature on
Candlestick which describe the continuation of existing sentiments i.e. bullish or bearish. We have refrained from mentioning names of these patterns to avoid
confusion. However, the remark Continuation Pattern refers to bullish or bearish candlestick patterns which suggest continuation of existing trend
Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]
ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC
Andheri (East)
Mumbai – 400 093
21
Disclaimer
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view(s) in this report.
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22
Disclaimer
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mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.
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