Download - What is Space Weather_INTRO
8/3/2019 What is Space Weather_INTRO
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/what-is-space-weatherintro 1/15
Susan Joy Rennison Susan Joy Rennison Susan Joy Rennison Susan Joy Rennison
8/3/2019 What is Space Weather_INTRO
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/what-is-space-weatherintro 2/15
i
What is Space Weather?
♦
♦ ♦ ♦
♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦
♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦
♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦
♦ ♦ ♦ ♦
Tuning the Diamonds: A Workbook
Susan Joy Rennison
8/3/2019 What is Space Weather_INTRO
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/what-is-space-weatherintro 3/15
ii
First Edition (International), published online by
Joyfire Publishing,
P. O. Box 7144,
Burton upon Trent,
Staffordshire
DE14 9BJ
First published by Joyfire Publishing in 2011.
© Susan Joy Rennison 2011
Susan Joy Rennison has asserted her right under the copyright,
Design and Patents Act, 1988 to be identified as author of this work.
All rights reserved.
No part of this book may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic ormechanical, without the permission in writing from the author.
www.susanrennison.comwww.joyfirepublishing.com
8/3/2019 What is Space Weather_INTRO
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/what-is-space-weatherintro 4/15
iii
Contents
Contents iii
Author’s note
1. The New Phenomenon of Space Weather 1
1.1 Space Weather Defined 5
1.2 Space Has Never Been Closer 6
1.3 Space Weather Changes Our World 81.4 Must Watch Space Weather Movies (1) 10
1.5 References 10
2. Types of Space Weather 11
2.1 Solar Flares 11
2.2 Coronal Mass Ejections 15
2.3 Cosmic Rays 17
2.4 Must Watch Space Weather Movies (8) 222.5 References 23
3. What Do We Mean by Extreme Space Weather? 25
3.1 Stormy Space Weather: It’s Halloween! 27
3.2 The Carrington Event. 29
3.3 Monitoring Space Weather 31
3.4 Must Watch Space Weather Movies (2) 35
3.5 References 36
4. Exotic & Extreme Space Weather 37
4.1 Magnetars 37
4.2 Mystery Solar Events 41
8/3/2019 What is Space Weather_INTRO
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/what-is-space-weatherintro 5/15
iv
4.3 Record Breaking Astronomical Events 43
4.4 Must Watch Space Weather Movies (3) 46
4.5 References 46
5. The Earth’s Magnetosphere 48
5.1 Geomagnetic Storms & Substorms 50
5.2 Ripples in the Sky 53
5.3 Must Watch Space Weather Movies (1) 54
5.4 References 55
6. The Technological Hazard & Challenges of Space Weather 56
6.1 Types of Satellite anomalies 59
6.2 Understanding the Vulnerability & Building Resilience 62
6.3 Space Weather: Implications for Business 69
6.4 Must Watch Space Weather Movies (1) 72
6.5 References 72
7. Revision 73
7.1 Knowledge Test 73
7.2 Exercises 93
8. Appendices 105
I A Short History of Space Weather Science 105
II NOAA Space Weather Scales 108
III The Van Allen Radiation Belts 113
IV Web Resources 120
Glossary 123
8/3/2019 What is Space Weather_INTRO
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/what-is-space-weatherintro 6/15
v
♦
♦ ♦ ♦
♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦
♦ ♦ ♦ ♦
Authors’ Note
Space Weather is transforming our world. This workbook is designed tosupport a greater understanding of how the delivery of solar, cosmic and
intergalactic energy impacts our modern technological world and the
principles that dictate the process of transformation during this time of
evolutionary change. The main focus is space weather generated by the Sunand the releases of vast amounts of energy in the form of electromagnetic and
particulate radiation that has a tremendous influence on the near Earth spaceenvironment. Yet, there are also blasts coming from deep space, an
orchestration of cosmic energy, which must be considered for a complete
picture. As space weather has been intensifying for the last few decades,Russian scientists state that the transmitting properties of space have changed
within our solar system. Consequently, this has serious consequences as Earth
continues to receive bombardments of energy that can damage or destroy
satellite, navigation, communication and power distribution systems, hencethere is a new focus on understanding and mitigating societal and
technological impacts.
Features
♦ This space weather workbook is aimed at those who are technicallyminded but the material presented at a pre-undergraduate level.
♦ Each section contains a list of key concepts that defines the underlying
physical principles, and lists ‘must watch’ movies and highlights
essential background reading, alongside references.
♦ Definitions of important terms are given throughout the text, but aglossary is provided of regular terms.
♦ The workbook has a revision section to help review and test readers’understanding.
Susan Joy Rennison
8/3/2019 What is Space Weather_INTRO
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/what-is-space-weatherintro 7/15
1
Notes
♦♦♦♦
♦ ♦ ♦♦ ♦ ♦♦ ♦ ♦♦ ♦ ♦
♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦
♦ ♦ ♦♦ ♦ ♦♦ ♦ ♦♦ ♦ ♦
♦♦♦♦
What Is Space Weather?
“Earth and space are about to come into contact in a way
that’s new to human history.”
“I believe we’re on the threshold of a new era in which space
weather can be as influential in our daily lives as ordinary
terrestrial weather. We take this very seriously indeed.”
Richard Fisher, head of NASA’s Heliophysics Division
1. The New Phenomenon of Space Weather
During a tempestuous solar fortnight in 2003, Earth
experienced extreme space weather that has now become
commonly known as the Halloween storms. The first solar flares
began on 25th October, but 28th October was when the first of the
really massive flares and eruptions struck. The citizens of Earth,
though largely unaware, were lucky because a record breaking
X28+ flare on 4th November, was actually directed away from the
Earth. There are many different statistics swirling around on the
internet but various space weather research papers state there were
140 solar flares and 80+ coronal mass ejections in about afortnight. That is some heavy duty firing by the Sun and satellite
controllers and astronomers were forced to take measures to
protect satellites and space-based telescopes.
Space weather watchers are most concerned about Earth being
engulfed in huge clouds of electrified particles that charge up
8/3/2019 What is Space Weather_INTRO
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/what-is-space-weatherintro 8/15
Susan Joy Rennison What is Space Weather?
2
spacecraft, because as the charges build up on spacecraft, they can
short-circuit and damage the electronics. This is probably the
cause of the biggest casualty, the $640 million Japanese Meduri II
weather satellite - it went silent during the storm on the 28th
October, losing the $150 million National Aeronautics and Space
Administration (NASA) SeaWinds instrument. NASA’s GoddardSpace Flight Center (GSFC) Space Science Mission Operations
Team indicated that approximately 59% of the Earth and Space
science missions were impacted. Most of these faults could be
attributed to their positioning mechanism. Dr David Clarke gave a
presentation that took place 12th September, 2007, at Gresham
College in the United Kingdom, the birthplace of academic
astronomy in the UK. Dr David Clark remarked:
“The satellites of today
hold themselves upright
and in fixed orientation in
space by having little
telescopes on them called
star trackers. These star
trackers watch the night
sky and they monitor the
positions of the stars, and
if they notice any slight
movement in the stars,
then they fire little thrusters to keep the satellite stable. When
the satellites are surrounded by these great big clouds of electrified gas, however, it blinds the star trackers and they
lose sight. However, the spacecraft will try to correct for that -
it thinks, ‘Oh goodness, where has the stars gone? I need to try
this, I need to try that,’ and it will just dangerously fire all
these thrusters. So what spacecraft do is simply recognise that
something has gone wrong like that and shut themselves
down, and then they wait for ground controllers to send up
resuscitating signals saying, ‘The danger is over. Turn on - see
if you are okay or if there really is anything wrong with you.’”
Dr Clarke also revealed a rather embarrassing snippet of
information. Apparently, NASA had sent the Mars Odyssey
spacecraft into orbit around Mars carrying a radiation monitor
designed to measure the amount of solar radiation that would
reach Mars due to space weather. Unlike Earth, with a large
atmosphere protecting humans from radiation in space, Mars has a
Figure 1.1: Artist’s impression of an Iridium satellite. Credit:NASA
8/3/2019 What is Space Weather_INTRO
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/what-is-space-weatherintro 9/15
Tuning the Diamonds Workbook 1
3
very thin atmosphere with no ozone layer and this is one of the
biggest problems for space exploration and a major consideration
when deciding to send astronauts to Mars. Well, the Mars Odyssey
radiation monitor was burnt out by the Halloween storms because
NASA had completely miscalculated just how much radiation it
was possible to receive at Mars. Due to the need for protectionagainst the onslaught of cosmic radiation, astronauts onboard the
International Space Station approximately 220 miles (350 km)
above Earth, are forced to relocate to portions of the ISS which are
most shielded from high levels of radiation. On Earth, there was a
20 - 50 minute electrical power blackout affecting 50,000
customers in Malmo, Sweden (30th October) and significant
transformer damage in South Africa with over 15 transformers
damaged, some beyond repair.
Figure 1.2: Technological infrastructure affected by space weather events.Credit: NASA
8/3/2019 What is Space Weather_INTRO
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/what-is-space-weatherintro 10/15
Susan Joy Rennison What is Space Weather?
4
During the Halloween storms, there was a plethora of
communications blackouts including: all of the expeditions on
Mount Everest were lost contact with; there were forest fires in
California at the time, and the radios would not work properly so
they could not correctly coordinate their efforts to fight these fires;
high latitude GPS receiver outages and the Federal AviationAdministration’s (FAA) Wide-Area Augmentations System
(WAAS) (built to improve GPS accuracy and augment signals),
was degraded. At the height of the storm (29th October), space
weather adversely affected the availability of the vertical
navigation service throughout most of the United States. In fact,
during the solar storm period, about 30 hours of vertical
navigation service was lost, but lateral navigation service for non-
precision approaches was maintained (this will be explained later);
what’s more, mobile phones and satellite television were also
blacked out. The solar flares on the 28th October and again twodays later on the 30th were so large, that the FAA decided that
they would divert all aircraft away from the Polar Regions, to
avoid the risk of high altitude radiation and high frequency (HF)
radio blackouts.
Polar routes have become increasingly popular due to the
thawing of relations between the countries that comprised the old
Soviet Union and North America and the polar regions are no
longer needed as a buffer zone. Hence, the only real issue is that
Figure 1.3: Polar routes. Credit: Boeing
8/3/2019 What is Space Weather_INTRO
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/what-is-space-weatherintro 11/15
Tuning the Diamonds Workbook 1
5
the magnetic field of the Earth funnels solar radiation down into
the Earth’s atmosphere around the poles, and so, when these
storms hit, as a precaution, planes are diverted. This takes the form
of planes routes being changed to below latitude 57 and brought
down in altitude to below 25,000 ft (7620 m) to provide plane
electronics and passengers with more atmospheric protection. Thisis a major decision as rerouting a plane costs airlines $10,000 to
$100,000 per flight.
Even though the vast majority of Earth’s citizens were
unaware, our modern world survived this major onslaught, but it
has focused more attention on the vulnerability of the world’s
technological infrastructure to space weather effects. The Great
Magnetic Storm in March, 1989 and the Halloween Storm October
– November 2003 are a reminder of even bigger geomagnetic
storms that have taken place in the last 150 years. Efforts are being
galvanised to systematically assess the societal and economicimpacts of what is now known widely as “Space Weather.”
1.1 Space Weather Defined
“Space Weather” has been
defined as “conditions on the sun
and in the solar wind,
magnetosphere, ionosphere, and
thermosphere that can influence the
performance and reliability of
space and ground-based
technological systems and can
endanger human life”. It
encompasses a broad range of
phenomena impacting both space
science and technology, but there is
also a considerable radiation risk to
astronauts, airline crew and
frequent flyers. Examples of
activities and systems affected by
space weather include:
• Satellite communications and operations (including telephone,
cable and internet services).
• General electrical control systems
• High-frequency communications, short-wave broadcasting
& surveillance radars
Figure 1.4: As cross-polar traffic increases,the aviation industry isbecoming more aware of the impacts spaceweather can have onoperations. Credit:AmericanMeteorological Society
8/3/2019 What is Space Weather_INTRO
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/what-is-space-weatherintro 12/15
Susan Joy Rennison What is Space Weather?
6
• Aircraft & shipping navigation
• Oil & gas, drilling and related operations
• Mapping, construction, and surveying
• Vehicle transportation, delivery and courier services
• Atmospheric weather balloon monitoring
• Tracking animal and bird migration• Computer network synchronisation
• Time-stamping financial transactions
• Agricultural applications
• Electricity power grid distribution
• Military Operations
1.2 Space Has Never Been Closer
The edge of space or where the Earth’s atmosphere ends is
difficult to define because the atmosphere does not end abruptly.Rather, it gradually becomes thinner and more tenuous. The upper
layers of Earth’s atmosphere are extremely important for radio
communications, especially the ionosphere, a shell of electrons
and electrically charged atoms and molecules (ions) that surround
the Earth. The ionosphere owes its existence primarily to neutral
atoms or molecules that have been ionized either by high energy
photons (ultraviolet or X-rays with short wave lengths) from the
Sun or energetic particles from the magnetosphere that precipitate
into the atmosphere and collide with the surrounding gas. Ions
exist everywhere in the atmosphere but they are most important inthe thermosphere, see figure 1.5. It was previously reported as
being ~400 miles (640 km) high at nighttime and ~600 miles (960
km) during the day. (Please note: The ionosphere is considered to
be the ionized part of the thermosphere.) Hence, the significance
in December 2008, when NASA admitted that Earth’s defences
against space weather had dropped. The headline at the website
Science Daily read: Boundary Between Earth’s Upper Atmosphere
And Space Has Moved To Extraordinarily Low Altitudes, NASA
Instruments Document . NASA revealed that the ionosphere had
collapsed due to “the quietest solar minimum since the space age,”but since this time, there have been no further announcements that
the ionosphere has recovered.
8/3/2019 What is Space Weather_INTRO
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/what-is-space-weatherintro 13/15
Tuning the Diamonds Workbook 1
7
The layers of the atmosphere are not always the same height
around the Earth, as they expand and contract with temperature
fluctuations throughout the year. Even so, the night ionosphere has
collapsed from ~400 miles (640 km) at night and ~600 miles (960
km) during the day to ~260 miles (420 km) and barely rising
above ~500 miles (800 km) during the day. This is a primary
reason why space has never been closer to Earth and why Earth
and space will be interacting in a way that is new to human
history.
Figure1.5: The layers of the atmosphere, the temperature gradient,and the depth of penetration by radiation and charged particles.
Figure 1.6: Space weather effects. Courtesy: Bell Laboratories
8/3/2019 What is Space Weather_INTRO
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/what-is-space-weatherintro 14/15
Susan Joy Rennison What is Space Weather?
8
1.3 Space Weather Changes Our World
In mid June 2011, it was officially acknowledged that life on
Earth has been permanently affected by space weather. This
happened when the UK & US governments made a joint
announcement about the decision to take down NationalElectricity Grids to prevent them being damaged in the event of a
powerful geomagnetic storm. The UK Independent newspaper
wrote:
Officials in Britain and the United States are preparing to
make controlled power cuts to their national electricity
supplies in response to a warning of a possible powerful solar
storm hitting the Earth.
“In an interview with The Independent, Thomas Bogdan,
director of the US Space Weather Prediction Centre, said that
controlled power “outages” will protect the National
Electricity Grids against damage which could take months or
even years to repair should a large solar storm collide with the
Earth without any precautions being taken.”
Remarkably, this is the exact scenario outlined in the
Discovery Channel documentary-drama, Perfect Disaster: Solar
Storm (2006). Ominously, in this documentary, electrical engineer
John Kappenman made the remark that any decision to take down
power grids was akin to playing Russian roulette with the Sun.Presumably, the reason for this comment is because space weather
forecasting is still in its infancy. Today, the procedures for how
this will be implemented have not been disclosed, but current
methods of collecting data to make important decisions is in itself
vulnerable to space weather. The scenario of a dramatic increase in
space weather was explained in the book Tuning the Diamonds:
Electromagnetism & Spiritual Evolution (September 2006). The
basic premise of this book was that space weather is the
manifestation of predictions (based on known astronomical cycles)
that we are entering a new era dominated by the ether (modernspelling aether) or space. Today, the facts reveal near-Earth space
has been transformed in a period of about two decades, from being
tranquil and “empty”, into a furious and hostile operating
environment for the world’s satellite communication
infrastructure.
In 1997, Dr. Alexey Dmitriev published a paper entitled,
8/3/2019 What is Space Weather_INTRO
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/what-is-space-weatherintro 15/15
Tuning the Diamonds Workbook 1
9
Planetophysical State of the Earth and Life, which in 1998 was
updated and translated into English. This authoritative and
important report is now widely acknowledged as an early warning
that “highly charged material” had “broken into the interplanetary
area of our Solar System” and that this “donation” of energy was
affecting all the planets in our solar system as well as our Sun.Most importantly, in terms of space weather, we are told that the
properties of space have changed and there has been an increase in
the “solar-planetary transmitting properties”. This is a short, but
relevant extract:
“In its travel through interstellar space, the Heliosphere travels
in the direction of the Solar Apex in the Hercules
Constellation. On its way it has met (1960’s) non-
homogeneities of matter and energy […] This kind of
interstellar space dispersed plasma is presented by magnetized
strip structures and striations. The Heliosphere [solar system]
transition through this structure has led to an increase of the
shock wave in front of the Solar System from 3 to 4 AU, to 40
AU, or more. This shock wave thickening has caused the
formation of a collusive plasma in a parietal layer, which has
led to a plasma overdraft around the Solar System, and then to
its breakthrough into interplanetary domains. This
breakthrough constitutes a kind of matter and energy donation
made by interplanetary space to our Solar System.
In response to this “donation of energy/matter,” we haveobserved a number of large scale events:
A series of large PlanetoPhysical transformations.
A change in the quality of interplanetary space in the
direction of an increase in its interplanetary, and solar-
planetary transmitting properties.
The appearance of new states, and activity regimes, of the
Sun.” [Bold added for emphasis]
Space weather is not new, but due to the changes in the
properties of space becoming more “saturated” and “charged”,
combined with the weakening of Earth’s magnetic field, it means
that the impact of space weather on Earth is far more intense and
problematic.