When permanency remains elusive:A longitudinal examination of the early foster care experiences of youth at risk of emancipating
Joe Magruder, MSWEmily Putnam-Hornstein, MSWBarbara Needell, MSW PhD Center for Social Services ResearchSchool of Social WelfareUniversity of California at Berkeley
The California Child Welfare Performance Indicators Project is supported by the California Department of
Social Services and the Stuart Foundation
Building on the CFSR…
Children and Family Services Review (CFSR) C3.3: Of all children in foster care during the
year who were either discharged to emancipation or turned 18 while still in care, what percent had been in foster care for 3 years or longer?
The sample used for this analysis allows us to examine the early foster care experiences of those “at risk” of emancipating, for whom permanency was clearly not achieved by their 17th birthday, regardless of the length of the last spell in care.
Overview
Using California’s administrative child welfare database, we present a sample of youth who were born in 1988, entered care for the first time prior to turning 14, and were in care on their 17th birthday.
We are unable to follow all children who were born in 1988 because of data limitations (we do not have fully longitudinal data)
Sample
Birth
1988 2005
In Foster Care at age 17
2002
First Entry to Foster
Care
Data on children who first entered child welfare supervised care before age 14 and were in care at age 17 (child welfare or probation supervised) were drawn from a longitudinal extract of the California Child Welfare Services/Case Management System (CWS/CMS)
At risk of emancipating (regardless of
actual permanency
outcome)
Entry to foster care before age 14 (regardless of the
length of the last episode)
14th Birthday
Inclusionary Criteria
X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
Not in study sample
1988 2006
Birth 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Exit
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
Age
Characteristics2005 Performance: C3.3 Between July 2005 and July 2006: approximately
5,121* youth emancipated or turned age 18 while still in care (60% had been in care 3+ years)
Snapshot View July 2005: 5,131* 17-year olds in care
Our Sample (born in 1988, age 17 in care in 2005, first entry before age 14)
3,615 youth meet our sample criteria Roughly 70% of all 17-year olds in care in 2005
(e.g., 70% of the snapshot sample) first entered care prior to age 14
*Includes only youth currently under child welfare supervision
An “Average” youth in this study sample…
First entry at 6.9 years of age Over 7 years (aggregate) spent in
out-of-home care Approximately 5 different
placements over the course of two separate episodes in care
46% of life through age 17 spent in out-of-home care
CA Black Child Pop.= 6% CA Black Out-of-Home Pop. = 29%
Number of youth in sample who first entered as infants is roughly twice that of entries at every other age
Last removal…higher than usual “other” due to children removed for “Law Violation”.
Other exits translate into roughly 200 AWOLs, 75 incarcerations and a number of other seemingly non-permanent exits.
The average youth spent 23% of life through age 17 in a primary out-of-home placement.
More than half of youth have more than one spell in care
73% of the youth in this sample who are last supervised by probation are male.
Removal Reason (problematic)
1977
2297
392 364
149 155 113
527
993
281
050
01,
000
1,50
02,
000
2,50
0
First Last First Last First Last First Last First Last
First vs. Last Reason for Removal
Neglect Physical Sexual Other Missing
Neglect 0.20Physical Abuse 0.20Sexual Abuse 0.25Other 0.04*Missings excluded.
Correlation Coefficients*
01
00
20
03
00
40
05
00
Ent
ry C
ount
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Age
Black Proportion of Total
01
00
20
03
00
40
05
00
Ent
ry C
ount
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Age
Hispanic Proportion of Total
01
00
20
03
00
40
05
00
Ent
ry C
ount
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Age
White Proportion of Total0
10
02
00
30
04
00
50
0E
ntry
Cou
nt
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Age
Total
Age at First Entry (N=3,615)
Median: 6.9 yrs
Median: 8.2 yrs
Median: 8.5 yrs
Median: 4.0 yrs
Episodes / Spells in Care
1.44
1.45
1.61
1.76
1.81
1.79
2.21
2.28
1 1.5 2 2.5
Mean Spell Count
13-14yrs
11-12yrs
9-10yrs
7-8yrs
5-6yrs
3-4yrs
1-2yrs
<1yr
*No restrictions on days in care.
by Age at EntryAverage Number of Spells in Out-of-Home Care
Number of Placements
12
34
56
7P
lace
men
t Cou
nt
<1yr 1-2yrs 3-4yrs 5-6yrs 7-8yrs 9-10yrs 11-12yrs 13-14yrs
Number of Placements by Age at First Entry
Mean Median
Number of Placements (by longest placement at age 17)
12
34
56
78
9M
edia
n P
lace
men
t Cou
nt
<1yr 1-2yrs 3-4yrs 5-6yrs 7-8yrs 9-10yrs 11-12yrs 13-14yrs
(n=1,375)Predominant Placement at Age 17, Foster
12
34
56
78
9M
edia
n P
lace
men
t Cou
nt
<1yr 1-2yrs 3-4yrs 5-6yrs 7-8yrs 9-10yrs 11-12yrs 13-14yrs
(n=574)Predominant Placement at Age 17, Group
12
34
56
78
9M
edia
n P
lace
men
t Cou
nt
<1yr 1-2yrs 3-4yrs 5-6yrs 7-8yrs 9-10yrs 11-12yrs 13-14yrs
(n=317)Predominant Placement at Age 17, Guardian
12
34
56
78
9M
edia
n P
lace
men
t Cou
nt
<1yr 1-2yrs 3-4yrs 5-6yrs 7-8yrs 9-10yrs 11-12yrs 13-14yrs
(n=1,263)Predominant Placement at Age 17, Kin
Reunific
Guardian
Other
Adoption
Emancipa
Other
Guardian
Foster
Group
Kinship
Male
Female
Black
Asian/PI
WhiteHispanic
Native A
3040
5060
Per
cent
Race Gender Placement Exit
by race/ethnicity, gender, longest placement type, and final exitMedian Percentage of Life Spent in Care at Age 17
(1,467)
(44)
(1,069)(962)
(73)
(1,789)
(1,826)
(317)
(1,263)
(1,375)
(86)
(574)
(81)
(403)
(79)
(300)
(2,502)
Life in Out-of-Home Care for this sample…
01
00
20
00
10
02
00
01
00
20
0
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1 0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1 0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1
<1yr 1-2yrs 3-4yrs
5-6yrs 7-8yrs 9-10yrs
11-12yrs 13-14yrs Total
Fre
quen
cy
Proportion of Life in CareGraphs by Age Categories
by Age at First EntryProportion of Life at Age 17 Spent in Out-of-Home Care
Life in Out-of-Home Care for this sample…
Exits from Care…
80%
11%
9%
69%
16%
15%
Female (n=1,789) Male (n=1,826)
Emancipated Permanency Other
by Gender (N=3,615)Final Exits:
83%
10%
7%
78%
12%
11%
Female (n=1,693) Male (n=1,561)
Emancipated Permanency Other
Probation cases excluded.
by Gender (N=3,254)Final Exits:
Racial Demographics (sample summary) 41% of the sample is Black (Black children are
roughly 6% of the CA pop) 76% (367) of youth who entered as infants were
Black 25% of Black children had entered as infants, but only 7%
of Hispanic and 4% of White children
The median age at entry for Black children was 4.0 years vs. 6.9 years for children of all other races
Black children in this sample had spent roughly 60% of their lives in out-of-home care by the age of 17 Black children in this sample spent an average of just over
10 years in care vs. 7.9 years for children of all other races
Age Demographics (sample summary)
The median age at entry was 6.9 years Youth in our sample were more likely to
have first entered care as infants than at any other age
Youth who entered during infancy proceeded to spend the vast majority of their lives in out of home care (mean=83%, median=96%) Roughly 60% of this time was spent in a
primary placement even though permanency was not achieved by the age of 17
Model Specification:
covariates of vector a is ),...,( :where 132 iii xxx
iiii xxxy 1313221 ...)}|1{Pr(logit
Model 1: y = probation supervised case (0/1)
Model 2: y = one spell in out-of-home care (0/1)
Model 3: y = final exit to permanency (0/1)
Things to keep in mind…
The experience of a later birth cohort would likely be very different…
We are not drawing conclusions regarding children who were born in 1988, entered care at a young age, but were not in care at age 17
A large proportion of children at risk of emancipating have a very long history with the child welfare system…
[email protected]/UCB_CHILDWELFARE
and go to the Presentations tab
Thank you to our colleagues at the Center for Social Services Research, the California
Department of Social Services, and the Stuart Foundation