Copyright 2014. The NPD Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved. This presentation is Proprietary and Confidential and may not be disclosed in any manner, in whole or in part, to any third party without the express written consent of NPD.
Where Is Fresh Headed?
An excerpt from the Future of Eating Report
2003 2013
Projected Annual Fresh Eatings
Consumption of fresh foods in the U.S. has grown by 20% to over 100 billion eatings over the last 10 years.
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Source: The NPD Group / National Eating Trends® Fresh definition: Fresh fruits and vegetables, refrigerated meats and processed meats (excludes frozen), and eggs
+20%
Historical Perspective of Fresh Foods
100 Billion Meals
Additional Insight:
Over the last 10 years, the largest incremental growth in “fresh” was sourced from breakfast.
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Age of Eater
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As people age they are more likely to consume fresh foods; however, the largest momentum occurs from young adults to the age of 40, followed by slower increases thereafter.
Consumption Increases with Aging
Consumption Increases with Aging
Aging Curve: Change in Fresh Eatings as Individuals Age
Source: The NPD Group / National Eating Trends® Fresh definition: Fresh fruits and vegetables, refrigerated meats and processed meats (excludes frozen), and eggs
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Age of Eater
Population in 2018 Population in 2013 Aging
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Population shifts for Generations Y and Z will align with increased fresh consumption.
Aging Curve: Change in Fresh Eatings as Individuals Age
Source: The NPD Group / National Eating Trends® Fresh definition: Fresh fruits and vegetables, refrigerated meats and processed meats (excludes frozen), and eggs
2003 2013 2018
Projected Annual Fresh Eatings
Using the fresh food aging curve, population changes, and other proprietary modeling elements, NPD forecasts eatings of fresh foods will continue to grow at a rate faster than U.S. population growth (4%).
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+6%
Five-Year Forecast for Fresh Foods
120 Billion Meals
Additional Insights:
Forecast: Percent Growth
+9% = Breakfast
+7% = Lunch
+5% = Dinner
Source: The NPD Group / National Eating Trends® Fresh definition: Fresh fruits and vegetables, refrigerated meats and processed meats (excludes frozen), and eggs
Generations Z and Y will drive the forecasted growth of fresh food consumption and will far outpace their percent of population change.
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Five-Year Forecast by Generation
Forecast Percent Change in Fresh Food Consumption
2018 vs. 2013
Population Percent Change 2018 vs. 2013
Total Individuals +5.9% +4%
Generation Z +11.1% +2%
Generation Y +7.5% +2%
Generation X +1.2% -1%
Younger Boomers -0.5% -3%
Older Boomers -4.6% -6%
Silent/GI Gen -28.6% -25%
Source: The NPD Group / National Eating Trends® Fresh definition: Fresh fruits and vegetables, refrigerated meats and processed meats (excludes frozen), and eggs
Understanding preferences by generation and how they change over time is important for developing strategies for future growth.
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Top Fresh Foods - 2013
Generation Z Fresh Chicken
Eggs/Omelets
Potatoes
Store Fresh Bananas
Store Fresh Apples
Bacon
Carrots
Hot Dogs
Source: The NPD Group / National Eating Trends® Fresh definition: Fresh fruits and vegetables, refrigerated meats and processed meats (excludes frozen), and eggs
Action Items
■ Develop future “what-if” scenarios to help pick the appropriate consumer target that yields the biggest future impact.
■ Reach your target (for example, younger generations) via marketing messages and media platforms that will appeal to them.
■ Consider innovative ways to link your products to fresh foods.
■ Look for ways to target this behavior with adjacencies and placement in the store.
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Forecasting Methodology Components
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1) Aging Dynamics (aging and generational) The impact of changes in behavior that occur with aging in terms of changes in consumption rates as well as preferences from one generation to another; assessed by individual year of age
2) Population Dynamics Population growth – overall and by individual year of age
The changing distribution of the population by age
3) Trend Momentum The inherent momentum of the behavior based on past seven years of trend
10-Year Forecast
Identify opportunities and risks associated with changing consumer behavior before they
occur.
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Thank You
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