![Page 1: ‘White flight’ in Britain?: Determinants of Exit from Diverse Wards](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062517/5681302c550346895d95bfff/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
‘White flight’ in Britain?:
Determinants of Exit from Diverse Wards
Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris,Birkbeck College, University of London
[email protected]; twitter: @epkaufm
![Page 2: ‘White flight’ in Britain?: Determinants of Exit from Diverse Wards](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062517/5681302c550346895d95bfff/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
White Flight?: Existing evidence base
• USA: white preference effects whilst controlling for socio/economic individual & neighborhood characteristics (Crowder & South, 2000)
• Europe: White avoidance rather than flight (Brama, 2006) ; No ‘native flight’ in France (Rathelot & Safi 2013); Whites say they would leave diverse areas (van Londen 2012)
• UK: No white flight; counter-urbanisation- but lower class whites significantly more likely to leave diverse areas than lower class mne residents, especially in London (Catney & Simpson, 2010)
![Page 3: ‘White flight’ in Britain?: Determinants of Exit from Diverse Wards](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062517/5681302c550346895d95bfff/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Data• Uses 18 waves of BHPS (n=192171 person yrs) and
waves 1-3 of Understanding Society (40,000 per yr)• Attached to geo-referenced data at ward-level
(BHPS linearly interpolated using 1991/2001/2011 census) to capture MNE population, deprivation (Carstairs) and population density.
• Ward-level diversity measured as either % minority, or in Simpson’s quintiles in which each quintile contains a fifth of the mne population (concentration)
![Page 4: ‘White flight’ in Britain?: Determinants of Exit from Diverse Wards](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062517/5681302c550346895d95bfff/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Preference to leave by ethnicity and quintile of diversity
1 2 3 4 50
10
20
30
40
50
60Mne go
White go
Quintile of minority concentration
Source: BHPS-UKHLS 1991-2011
![Page 5: ‘White flight’ in Britain?: Determinants of Exit from Diverse Wards](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062517/5681302c550346895d95bfff/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Preference to move
• Older residents, home owners and those in lower SEG less likely to prefer to move
• Respondents who are more socially- but not politically- conservative more likely to want to move - but not to actually do so
• **White respondents more likely to prefer to leave if living in more diverse quintiles
![Page 6: ‘White flight’ in Britain?: Determinants of Exit from Diverse Wards](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062517/5681302c550346895d95bfff/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Actual move• All respondents more likely to move from
more deprived, diverse and urban wards• Respondents who are white, younger, better-
educated, single, childless, renters more likely to move
• **The odds of moving higher for whites living in wards with higher minority concentration
![Page 7: ‘White flight’ in Britain?: Determinants of Exit from Diverse Wards](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062517/5681302c550346895d95bfff/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Predicted probabilities of move by diversity quintile and ethnicity
Source: BHPS 1991-2009; N=102,974, Pseudo R2 = .193
![Page 8: ‘White flight’ in Britain?: Determinants of Exit from Diverse Wards](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062517/5681302c550346895d95bfff/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Understanding Society Data 2009-12
• 40k per year compared to 10k per year• Significant sample of far right voters (UKIP,
BNP, Other, N = 2,226), in addition to Tory voters to proxy for anti-diversity orientation
• No interpolation necessary
![Page 9: ‘White flight’ in Britain?: Determinants of Exit from Diverse Wards](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062517/5681302c550346895d95bfff/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Understanding Society
• Larger sample size (40k v 10k)• More attitudinal questions pertaining to
neighbourhood• Period of rise of UKIP and BNP• ‘Right’ defined as UKIP+BNP+Conservatives,
proxy for attitude to diversity among whites• Right x % minorities interaction
![Page 10: ‘White flight’ in Britain?: Determinants of Exit from Diverse Wards](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062517/5681302c550346895d95bfff/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Minority% in ward
Deprivation of ward
![Page 11: ‘White flight’ in Britain?: Determinants of Exit from Diverse Wards](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062517/5681302c550346895d95bfff/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Minority% in ward
Right party x Minority% in ward
Deprivation of ward
![Page 12: ‘White flight’ in Britain?: Determinants of Exit from Diverse Wards](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062517/5681302c550346895d95bfff/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
![Page 13: ‘White flight’ in Britain?: Determinants of Exit from Diverse Wards](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062517/5681302c550346895d95bfff/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Minority% in ward
Right party x Minority% in ward
2nd lag - Local Friends Mean a Lot
![Page 14: ‘White flight’ in Britain?: Determinants of Exit from Diverse Wards](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062517/5681302c550346895d95bfff/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
![Page 15: ‘White flight’ in Britain?: Determinants of Exit from Diverse Wards](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062517/5681302c550346895d95bfff/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
![Page 16: ‘White flight’ in Britain?: Determinants of Exit from Diverse Wards](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062517/5681302c550346895d95bfff/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Conclusion
• Neither White British nor anti-diversity White British are more likely to want to leave diverse areas than minorities
• Nor are they more like to actually leave when other factors taken into account
• Difficult to support white flight thesis for Britain
• White avoidance may be a possibility
![Page 17: ‘White flight’ in Britain?: Determinants of Exit from Diverse Wards](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062517/5681302c550346895d95bfff/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
‘White flight’ in Britain?:
Determinants of Exit from Diverse Wards
Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris,Birkbeck College, University of London
[email protected]; twitter: @epkaufm