Download - why 2013 will be the end of the PC Era
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7/30/2019 why 2013 will be the end of the PC Era
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TheDeathOfThePCNicholasCarlson
DeputyEditor,BusinessInsider
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TheiPhoneissixyearsold,andtheiPad,three.
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3/50
TheInternethasmadethe
desktopOSirrelevant
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4/50
IsthePCDeadyet?
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Letslookatsales
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PCsaleshavebeenflatsince2009
HP#
Lenovo#
Dell#
Acer#
Apple#
Other#
0"
10,000"
20,000"
30,000"
40,000"
50,000"
60,000"
70,000"
80,000"
90,000"
100,000"
1Q08" 2Q08" 3Q08" 4Q08" 1Q09" 2Q09" 3Q09" 4Q09" 1Q10" 2Q10" 3Q10" 4Q10" 1Q11" 2Q11" 3Q11" 4Q11" 1Q12" 2Q12" 3Q12"
Global#PC#Shipments#By#Manufacturer#
Source:(Gartner,(IDC(
iPad"released"
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SmartphonesalesarebiggerthanPCsales
Personal)Computers)
Smartphones)
Tablets)
)3))))
)100,000,000))
)200,000,000))
)00,000,000))
)400,000,000))
)500,000,000))
)600,000,000))
)700,000,000))
)800,000,000))
)900,000,000))
)1,000,000,000))
2000) 2001) 2002) 200) 2004) 2005) 2006) 2007) 2008) 2009) 2010) 2011)
Units)
Global)Internet)Device)Sales)
Source:(Gartner,(IDC,(Strategy(Analy5cs,(company(filings,(BI(Intelligence(es5mates(
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Growthincomputersalesiscomingfromtablets
PCs$
Tablets$
0"
20,000"
40,000"
60,000"
80,000"
100,000"
120,000"
140,000"
1Q08"2Q08"3Q08"4Q08"1Q09"2Q09"3Q09"4Q09"1Q10"2Q10"3Q10"4Q10"1Q11"2Q11"3Q11"4Q11"1Q12"2Q12"3Q12"
(thousands)
Global$Computer$Shipments$
Source:(Gartner,(IDC,(Strategy(Analy5cs(company(releases(
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PeoplebuymorethanoneiPadperhousehold
HowManyiPadsAreInYourHousehold?
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Addthesalesup,andyougetthecollapseofMicrosoft/Intel
ShareofPersonalComputingPlatforms
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Consumersaregoingto
buymoretabletsandfewerPCs
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12/50
Moreadultswanttobuyatabletthanacomputerthisyear
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
iPadand/ornon-AppleTablet Computer
Whatpeopleover13wanttobuyinthenext6months
Source:EstimatesbasedonNielsendata
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Thetrendspikeshigheramongkids
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
iPadand/ornon-AppleTablet Computer
Whatkidswanttobuyinthenext6months
Source:EstimatesbasedonNielsendata
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Amajorityspend2+hoursontabletseveryday
Source:BusinessInsidersurvey
OnAverage,HowManyHoursDoYouUseYouriPad?
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Tabletsaleswillpassnotebooksalesthisyear
Source:NPD
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PeoplewhoalreadyowniPadsareusingthemMOREastimegoesby
Source:BusinessInsider/SurveyMonkey
HasYouriPadUsageIncreasedOrDecreasedSinceYourInitialExperimentalPeriod?
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Thisusageshiftisshowingupinecommerce
PC#
Smartphone#
Tablet#
0%#
10%#
20%#
30%#
40%#
50%#
60%#
70%#
80%#
90%#
100%#
Q1#2011# Q2#2011# Q3#2011# Q4#2011# Q1#2012# Q2#2012# Q3#2012#
Ecommerce#Website#Traffic#By#Device#
Source:(Monetate(
i d ill b ll i i
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By2015,FixedPCswillbeasmallminorityofInternetconnecteddevices
Fixed& Fixed&Fixed&
Mobile&
Mobile&
0&
500&
1,000&
1,500&
2,000&
2,500&
3,000&
2005& 2010& 2015&
Consumer&
Broadband&
Connec:ons&
(milions)&
G>20&Internet&Access&
Source:(Boston(Consul/ng(Group,(Mary(Meeker,(Kleiner(Perkins,(Morgan(Stanley(Research,(Berg(Insight(
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SoisthePCdead?
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Nope.
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Atruerstatementis:
ThehomePCisdead
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Mostly,peopleusetheirtabletsathome
Source:Comscore
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Home PublicLocation Work Other
Wheredoyouuseatablet?
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Source: comScore, Telefonica, Macquarie Capital (USA), December 2011
andtraditionalcomputersatwork
ShareOfDevicePageTrafficOverADay:
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Peoplespendalotoftime
atwork
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SotheanswerisNO,the
PCisntdying
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theHOMEPCisdying.
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Whoarethepost-PC
winners?
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StartwithApple
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iOSiscrushingWindows
Source:Companyreleases
$0
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$25,000,000
$30,000,000
$35,000,000
$40,000,000
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
AxisTitle
iOSDevicevs.WindowsRevenue
WindowsDivisionRevenue
iOSDeviceRevenue
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iPhoneisbeatingWindowsbyitself
Source:Companyreleases
$0
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$25,000,000
$30,000,000
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
AxisTitle
iPhonevs.WindowsRevenue
WindowsDivisionRevenue
iPhoneRevenue
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iPadisbeatingWindows,too
Source:Companyreleases
$0
$2,000,000
$4,000,000
$6,000,000
$8,000,000
$10,000,000
2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12
AxisTitle
iPadvs.WindowsRevenue
WindowsDivisionRevenue
iPhoneRevenue
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iPadrevenueswillsooneclipseDellrevenues
$0
$2,000,000
$4,000,000
$6,000,000
$8,000,000
$10,000,000
$12,000,000
$14,000,000
2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12
AxisTitle
DellProductvs.iPadRevenue
DellProductRevenue
iPadRevenue
Source:Companyreleases
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Meanwhile,Applestockhasbeenonatear
Dell
Apple
MicrosoftHP
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
1/1/07
4/1/07
7/1/07
10/1/07
1/1/08
4/1/08
7/1/08
10/1/08
1/1/09
4/1/09
7/1/09
10/1/09
1/1/10
4/1/10
7/1/10
10/1/10
1/1/11
4/1/11
7/1/11
10/1/11
1/1/12
4/1/12
7/1/12
10/1/12
AAPLvs.DELLvs.HPQvs.MSFTStockPerformance
Source:YahooFinance
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Googleisalsothriving
post-PC
G l DOMINATES t PC ti
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GoogleDOMINATESpost-PCoperatingsystemmarketshare
Android'
Apple'
Blackberry'
Windows'
Other'
0%#
10%#
20%#
30%#
40%#
50%#
60%#
70%#
80%#
90%#
100%#
Q1#2009# Q2#2009# Q3#2009# Q4#2009# Q1#2010# Q2#2010# Q3#2010# Q4#2010# Q1#2011# Q2#2011# Q3#2011# Q4#2011# Q1#2012# Q2#2012# Q3#2012#
Global'Mobile'Pla:orm'Market'Share'
Source:(Gartner,(IDC,(Strategy(Analy5cs,(BI(Intelligence(es5mates,(and(company(filings#
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Googleownspost-PCsearch
Google&
Yahoo!&bing&
0%#
10%#
20%#
30%#
40%#
50%#
60%#
70%#
80%#
90%#
100%#
Dec#
08#
Mar#
09#
Jun#
09#
Sep#
09#
Dec#
09#
Mar#
10#
Jun#
10#
Sep#
10#
Dec#
10#
Mar#
11#
Jun#
11#
Sep#
11#
Dec#
11#
Mar#
12#
Jun#
12##
Sep#
12#
Global&Mobile&Search&Market&Share&
Source:(Global(StatCounter(
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Googletakesmostofthepost-PCadrevenues
Google&
Millennial&Media&
Pandora&
Apple&Yahoo&
Microso4&Other&
0%#
10%#
20%#
30%#
40%#
50%#
60%#
70%#
80%#
90%#
100%#
1Q09# 2Q09# 3Q09# 4Q09# 1Q10# 2Q10# 3Q10# 4Q10# 1Q11# 2Q11# 3Q11# 4Q11#
Mobile&Ad&Market&Share&
Source:(news(reports,(company(releases,(BII(es5mates(
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Samsungisalsowinning
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
SamsungStockPerformance
Source:YahooFinance
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Sofar,Facebookissurvivingthetransition
TotalUsers
MobileUsers
Mobile-only0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q09 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12
(millions)
FacebookMonthlyActiveUsers
Source:Companyreleases
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iOSappdevelopersareindemand
0"
5,000,000,000"
10,000,000,000"
15,000,000,000"
20,000,000,000"
25,000,000,000"
30,000,000,000"
35,000,000,000"
40,000,000,000"
45,000,000,000"
50,000,000,000"
55,000,000,000"
60,000,000,000"
65,000,000,000"
1/1/11"
2/1/11"
3/1/11"
4/1/11"
5/1/11"
6/1/11"
7/1/11"
8/1/11"
9/1/11"
10/1/11"
11/1/11"
12/1/11"
1/1/12"
2/1/12"
3/1/12"
4/1/12"
5/1/12"
6/1/12"
7/1/12"
8/1/12"
9/1/12"
10/1/12"
11/1/12"
12/1/12"
1/1/13"
2/1/13"
3/1/13"
4/1/13"
5/1/13"
6/1/13"
Apple%App%Store%Downloads%
Source:Companyreleases
(iOS developers makemore more money
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(iOSdevelopersmakemoremoremoneythanAndroiddevelopers)
Apple%iOS%
Android%%
Other%
$0#
$500#
$1,000#
$1,500#
$2,000#
$2,500#
$3,000#
$3,500#
$4,000#
2008# 2009# 2010# 2011#
(millions)
Mobile%App%Revenue%By%Pla
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Noteveryoneisfaringso
well
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Somecompanieshavenotbeenabletogrowtheirpost-homePCaudiencesatall
0%20%40%60%80%
100%
120%140%160%180%
PercentageGainInAudienceThanksToMobile-OnlyUniques
Pandora
Gannett
Wal-Mart
LinkedIn
Craigslist
DemandMedia
VEVO
Microsoft
Source:Comscore
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YahooisdependentonthePC-basedWeb,anditsusageisshrinking
0%#
2%#
4%#
6%#
8%#
10%#
12%#
14%#
16%#
1Q07#2Q07#3Q07#04Q7#1Q08#2Q08#3Q08#4Q08#1Q09#2Q09#3Q09#4Q09#1Q10#2Q10#3Q10#4Q10#1Q11#2Q11#3Q11#4Q11#1Q12#
Yahoo%Time%Spent%%vs.%Total%Internet%(U.S.)%
Source:(comScore,(Ci-(Investment(Research(And(Analysis(
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Websiteswillgoawayin
favorofapps?
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46/50
Nope.
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7/30/2019 why 2013 will be the end of the PC Era
47/50
RememberPeoplestill
usePCsatwork.
And when theyre using their tablets at home
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Andwhenthey reusingtheirtabletsathome,peoplestillliketobrowsetheWeb
Source:BusinessInsidersurvey
Whenyoureadnews/informationonaTABLET,
whichofthefollowingdoyoudoregularly?
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7/30/2019 why 2013 will be the end of the PC Era
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Thanksforreading.
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7/30/2019 why 2013 will be the end of the PC Era
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