Why Did Islamist Parties Win, and
What Does It Mean?
Danish Institute for International Studies
October 30 2012
Ellen Lust
Gamal Soltan
Jakob Wichmann
2
The Islamist won the elections in Egypt and Tunisia
15%
7%
8%
Other
Egyptian Bloc
Wafd Party
Nour Party
25%
Freedom and Justice Party
45% 7%
9%
12%
PDM
Ennahda
ETTAKATOL
CPR
Popular Petition
The Initiative
41%
13%
2%
other
Egyptian Election Tunisian Election
3
Why Islamists Won?
Three Potential Explanations
2. Islamist Parties provide Social Welfare Services in the Absence of the State
1. Islam Resonates with Arab, Muslim Voters
3. Islamist Parties were Better Organized During the Campaign
4
Although values appear stable over past year:
Preferences for Islamic, democratic and strong state model
7% 9% 10% 8% 6% 6%
55%
39%
November 2011
46%
47%
October 2011
Strong state
Democratic- civil state
Islamic state
June 2012
56%
38%
May 2012
44%
46%
September 2011
53%
38%
August 2011
51%
42%
Source: Parliamentary survey 1,2,3 4,5 & 6. Presidential survey 1, 2
5
In stark contrast, support for Islamist parties grew in the lead-up
to the election
Support for Islamist Parties
1
Source: Parliamentary survey 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 & 6.
Citizens’ view of the Nour Party
2
4447
31
2625
-29-30
-23
-34
-39-39
1617
8
-8
-14
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Unfavorable
Favorable
Late
December
2011
Early
December
2011
November
2011
October
2011
September
2011
August
2011
-25
14 Favorable
minus
unfavorable
52
42
3432
19
23
77
10
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Late
December
2011
Early
December
2011
November
2011
10
October
2011
September
2011
August
2011
Al Nour Party
FJP
6
Support for Islamist parties stronger among those in need
Islamists more likely to be poor
1
Less Educated
2
Source: Parliamentary survey 4, 5 & 6.
No
Car owner
Islamic
party voter
91%
9%
Non-islamic
party voter
86%
14%
17%13%
44%
39%
Islamic
party voter
19%
29%
Non-islamic
party voter
17%
22%
High and Upper
Highschool
Illiterate/
barely read
College
Below High
School
Rural
Urban
Islamic
party voter
64%
36%
Non-islamic
party voter
52%
48%
More Rural
3
7
Islamist parties have superior organizational resources
Source: Interview with 7 political parties in Egypt, August – September 2012
More campaign volunteers
1
More active members
2
More full time staff
3
Non-Islamic
parties
11.900
Islamic parties
25.000
Non-Islamic
parties
24.500
Islamic parties
100.000
Full time
Part-time
Non-Islamic
parties
38%
63%
Islamic parties
75%
25%
Total number of campaign volunteers Total number of active members Type of staff in parties
8
Islamist Parties Mobilized both New and Old Voters
100%
Non-islamist parties
Islamist parties
New entrants
19%
81%
Old voters
20%
80%
Source: Presidential survey 1
31%
Old voters
New entrants
50%
Non voters
19%
Split of Old and New Voters Old and New Voter Choices
9
What Does it Mean?
Implications of Islamists’ Victory
Immediate Impact: Focus on Women
Long-Term Implications: The Transition Process
10
Not An Outcome Driven by Men
Women vote as much for Islamists as men
72% 72%
100%
Non-Islamist
Islamist
Female
28%
Male
28%
Source: Parliamentary survey 4, Parliamentary survey 5, Parliamentary
survey 6
11
4%
7%
25%
18%
4%
100%
Other
Absence of trust in authority figures
poverty and income reduction
Unemployment
Inflation
Security and stability
Female
1.602
8%
3%
26%
38%
Male
1.649
12%
15%
39%
Source: Parliamentary survey 4, Parliamentary survey 5, Parliamentary
survey 6
Men and Women have similar concerns
12
Men and women have similar views
8% 8%
14% 14%
5% 5%
Female
24%
49%
Male
27%
47%
100%
Completely disagree
Disagree
Somwhat agree
Agree
Strongly agree
Agreement on the statement: "Men have priority over women in employment"
Source: Parliamentary survey 3
13
Long-Term Implications for Transitional Politics?
• Secularists – domestic and abroad – tend to view “Islamist
takeover” reflecting deep-seated, values
• Fear of spreading message and power prompts support for
illiberal and anti-democratic policies
However,
• Illiberal policies have potential for inducing preference
falsification that strengthens Islamist parties
14
Moving Forward: Recognize Fluidity and Keep the
Playing Field Open
• Need to resist supporting efforts to limit liberal freedoms, discourse
• International actors need to avoid temptation to shore up secularists
vs. Islamists
• Counter-productive
• Not necessarily more liberal, democratic outcomes
• Respond to the needs of the center
• Need to emphasize iterative processes and seek ways to avoid
entrenchment of early winners
• Roles of local level elections
• Emphasis on media freedoms, freedom of association, political
parties laws, etc.
15
The transitional process has made participation in elections more
attractive to the youth, women and urbanized voters
18%
20%
11%
10%
Old voters
30%
21%
16%
11%
21%
41%
41-50
51-60
60+
New entrants
18-30
31-40
Source: Presidential survey 1
Female
Male
New entrants
51%
49%
39%
Old voters
61%
33%
51%
49%
Old voters
67%
New entrants
Rural
Urban
New entrants are younger
1
New entrants are more likely to
be female
2
New entrants are more urbanized
3