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Carbon Zero Institute
Prepared for June 13, 2013 Public Workshop for The 2013 Update to AB 32 Scoping Plan Elton Sherwin Executive Director Carbon Zero Institute [email protected] www.carbonzeroassociation.org
Why Methane Matters
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Carbon Zero Institute
Mission: Net Zero by Mid Century
Focus: Gigaton Projects www.carbonzeroinstitute.org
Monitor Methane Worldwide
– All sources
– Sources are local, impact is global
• Ranching, mining, oil and gas, pipelines, refining, landfills, homes and businesses
• Tundra, permafrost and ocean clathrates
10,000 years of CO2
Net Zero Mid Century
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IPCC Summary for Policymakers http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf
Methane is Powerful Warming Agent 100 Year GWP
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More Potent than CO2
Lifetime (years)
GWP
20-yr GWP
100-yr
Carbon dioxide CO2 1 1
Methane CH4 12 72x 25x
Nitrous oxide N2O 114 289x 298x
HFC-23 CHF3 270 12,000x 14,800x
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/tssts-2-5.html
Twenty to 70+ times the global warming potential (GWP) of CO2 depending on timeframe
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Methane Rising Again Why?
p.p.b.v is parts per billion by volume Chart cropped by NASA, full chart is available online:
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2012-263 http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/earth20120828.html
NASA and UC Irvine 1995 to 2011 Yellow line added
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Need Better Monitoring
With a 12-year Life,
We Should Be Able to
Reduce Atmospheric
Methane
http://www.cmar.csiro.au/research/capegrim_graphs.html
http://www.environment.gov.au/soe/2001/publications/theme-reports/atmosphere/atmosphere02-16.html
Red lines added
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Carbon Zero Institute
An Advocate for
Net zero emissions
Mid century
Stylized graph of CO2 levels over the past 10,000 years from ice cores and measurements at Mauna Loa http://www.skepticalscience.com/are-humans-too-insignificant-to-affect-global-climate.html
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Appendix
UC Irvine and NASA p.p.b.v is parts per billion by volume Yellow line added
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2012-263 http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/earth20120828.html
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Differing Estimates of the Impact of Black Carbon
Low IPPC
Medium Hansen & Sato
High Jackson, UCB
Impact varies by location, methodology and timeframe
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Hansen J E , and Sato M PNAS 2001;98:14778-14783
©2001 by National Academy of Sciences
Hansen and Sato
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Twenty year GWP
Chart from Addicted to Energy, research by Stacy Jackson, UC Berkeley http://www.stacycjackson.com/images/Copenhagen_Conference_Handout_-_Mar_2009.pdf
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Recommendations from Stacy Jackson’s website associated with the prior chart (2009)