WMO RA V
Regional Seminar
on Climate Services
Climate Services
In Fiji
Ravind KumarFiji Meteorological Service
E-mail : [email protected]
Regional Association RAVHoniara, Solomon Islands
Outline of this Presentation
� Overview of FMS and Climate Services
� Climate Monitoring
� Climate Data
� Climate Predictions
� Climate Applications
� Expectations
Overview of FMS
and
Climate Services National Responsibilities
Overview of FMS
� Government Department under Ministry of Works, Transport and Public Utilities
� Two main output Divisions
� National Weather Forecasting Centre
� RSMC Nadi–TCC ( From Equator to 25˚S and from 160˚E to 120˚W)
� Climate Services
�Support Divisions
Reporting and Facilities (Network)
Information and Computing (communication and Service delivery)
Climate Services - Responsibilities
� collect, quality control, process and archive meteorological data;
� Archived data is used in a wide variety of global, regional, national and private sector activities;
� Includes monitoring of current and prediction of future climate variability and change;
� Maintain Fiji‘s National climate Data Centre;
� Provides professional advice on climate variability and change to climate sensitive sectors;
� Responds to clients for climate data, products & consultative services;
� promote climate services nationally and regionally;
� Prepares and disseminates climatological & special reports on many aspects of climate of Fiji;
� Conducts research and development work.
Climate Services Activities� Understanding of Climate System
� understanding past and current climate, � climate variability and extremes and � significant natural climate fluctuations on different time scales;
� Climate Data and Monitoring� climate observation networks and systems, � climate data management and exchange, � statistical depictions of climate, � status of global climate, � climate watch and alert systems;
� Climate Predictions and Outlooks� long range forecasting, consensus driven Predictions and Outlook� WMO El Nino/La Nina Updates, Island Climate Update and On-line
Climate Outlook Forum;
Climate Services Cont’d� Climate Research
� Operational research in climate variability � Climate change science � Climate change adaptation � International coordination in climate research
� Climate Change� Causes of climate change � Elements of climate change � Climate trends and � Climate projections
� International collaborations and partnerships on climate change� IPCC, UNFCCC, UN response to climate variability and climate
change.
Climate
Monitoring
Climate Monitoring Services� Regular updates on national and regional climate - ENSO
Updates and Monthly/Annual Climate Summaries;
� Drought monitoring and advice to National Drought Steering Committee;
� Monitor long term climate trends;
� Government agency responsible for the climate and climate science;
� regional teleconferences – ICU & OCOF;
� Contribute to WMO activities e.g. WMO El Niῆo/La Niῆa Updates, WMO Decadal Climate Summary, etc.
Climate Monitoring – Current Network
� WMO RBSN
� 5 full manual synoptic stations
� 3 Daytime full synoptic only
� Laucala Bay, Suva
� 3 Airfields
� 7 AWS
� 30 climate stations
� 52 rainfall stations (FMS & FSC)
Network of Telemetric Systems
� 14 TB3 Fully Automatic Rainfall Stations
� 2 are Electronic Weather Stations (temperature, pressure and wind)
Nacocolevu
Lautoka Mill
Rarawai Mill
Penang MillTavua
Dobuilevu
LodoniSt Johns
Monasavu
Tabua Sands
Dreketi
Seaqaqa
Nasinu
TokotokoNausori Airport
311 mmof Rain
TB3 Automatic Rain Gauges In the Field
Transmits using GPRS Mobile Network
GPRS repeater Stations
GPRS Server
Connect Server
Fiji Met Service
Flosys & Tideda
Telemetric Communication
Vodafone Tower
Vodafone Server
Connect Head Office
Server in Suva
Extreme Events� Tropical Cyclones
� Floods
� Droughts
� Hailstorms
� Swells
� Storm Surge
� Extreme Rainfall Events
Climate Data
and
Analysis
Climate Data� Rainfall and Rainfall Intensities� Temperature (Dry & Wet bulb, Maximum, Minimum and
Mean)� Soil Temperatures (10, 20, 30, 50, 60 & 100cm)� Evaporation� Barometric Pressure� Relative Humidity� Wind (Direction & Speed)� Sunshine� Radiation� Cloud Cover� Sea Surface Temperature & Sea Level� Thunder & Lightening, etc.
Data Availability� 5-minute
� Synoptic
� Hourly
� Daily
� Monthly
� Annual
� Rainfall available from late 1800’s
� Temperature available from 1930’s
� Reliable and consistent datasets available from 1955 for many sites around the country
Data Archiving and Data Rescue
� Data are manually checked (Quality control)
� Keyed into existing database (CLICOM)� CLICOM also has built-in quality control mechanism
� Only 1 dedicated PC for CLICOM (only supported on Windows98)
� Replaced by CliDE (under Pacific Climate Change Science Project)
� Approximately 70% exists as paper records
(Daily, Hourly, Synoptic data)
� Data Rescue and digitization is a challenge.
� Offshore data in Australia, NIWA & UK Met Office.
Data Analysis - Climate Summaries & Updates
Annual Climate Summary
Monthly Climate Summary
ENSO Update
Climate Science - Current Trends
� Rainfall Maximum Temperature
Climate Predictions
And
Applications
� FMS issues seasonal climate outlook (rainfall & temperature) forcoming 3 to 6 months.
� Main guide: SCOPIC – localizes prediction
� Global and regional models eg. ECMWF, NASA NSIPP, IRI, NCEP, APEC, POAMA etc;
� Regional teleconferences, Online Climate Outlook Forum and ICU, sets platform and provides consensus based forecasts.
� TC Season Outlook for the RSMC Nadi area of responsibility;
� Long term climate projections: rely on IPCC and international partners for downscaling.
Climate Prediction
FMS
Climate
Outlooks
Tropical Cyclone Outlook Seasonal Outlook2011/12 Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook
in the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre Na di – Tropical Cyclone Centre (RSMC Nadi – TCC) Area of Responsibili ty (AOR)
Tropical Cyclone activity in the 2011/12 TC Season within the RSMC Nadi-TCC AOR (Equator to 25˚South between 160˚East and 120˚West), is anticipated to be below average with moderate to low confidence. The official 2011/12 TC Season begins on the 1st of November 2011, and ends on April 30th, 2012.
5 to 8 tropical cyclones are expected to occur within RSMC Nadi AOR during the 2011/12 season. On average, for all the 42 seasons from 1969/70 to 2010/11, 9 cyclones usually occur, 7 for the La Niña seasons, and 10 for the El Niño seasons. For the 2011/12 season outlook, seven analogue seasons were used (Table 3).
In the 2011/12 season, the tropical cyclone genesis trough is expected to be located in the Coral Sea region based on the current ENSO characteristics and existence of the warm pool of sea surface and sub‐surface temperature anomalies in this area. Subsequently, west of the Dateline, there is an elevated chance of the number of cyclones exceeding average, while reduced chances east of the Dateline. However, islands around French Polynesia could expect elevated chances of cyclone later in the season due to the unfolding La Niña episode.
Thus, for New Caledonia and Vanuatu, the associated risk is high, moderate to high for Fiji, Tonga and Cook Islands, and moderate for Niue, Wallis & Futuna, Samoa, and Solomon Islands. Tropical cyclone risk is low to moderate for Tuvalu and very low for Tokelau (Table 1). Despite this, historical tropical cyclone information indicates tropical cyclones can affect any country, irrespective of the prevailing ENSO phase. It is therefore critical that all countries remain alert and prepared throughout the 2011/12 tropical cyclone season.
Furthermore, there is elevated risk for severe tropical cyclones to affect New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Fiji and Tonga. Normal to near normal risks for Samoa, Solomon Islands, Wallis and Futuna and Cook Islands and reduced risks for Niue, Tokelau and Tuvalu (Table 2).For Fiji, one to two (1-2) cyclones are expected in the 2011/12 season, of which one (1) may reach or exceed category 3 status. With the genesis trough in the Coral Sea region, there is a high probability that tropical cyclones will approach Fiji from the west or northwest. For those tropical cyclones passing further to the southwest of the country, associated active cloud and rain bands may occasionally affect Fiji and bring heavy rain and possible flooding, including sea flooding of low‐lying coastal areas.
Renewable Energy
� Planning and Decision Making
� Resources Mobilization
� Hydro and Fossil Fuel Mix
� Wind Power Generation
� Solar Power Potentials
Climate Applications
Agriculture Ministry of Primary Industries
• Pacific Adaptation to Climate Change (drainage systems)
• Integrated Water Resource Management – Adaptation to Climate Change Nadi Watershed Catchment
• Sugar Industry & Crop Diversification
FMS
Climate
Outlooks
Sugar Sector OutlookEnergy Sector Outlook
Special Products for Climate Sensitive Sectors
Health Sector - Ministry of Health
Piloting Climate Change to Protect Human Health
Climate Early Warning for Climate sensitive diseases
� Technical Working Group
� Steering Committee
Other Local Engagement
Department of Environment
Technical Advice/Expert Opinion
�Department of Environment:� Second National Communication
� National Climate Change Country Team
� National Climate Change Adaptation
Strategy Development
� Carbon Trading Technical Team
� Climate Change Policy Task Force
� Climate Change Adaptation Projects
� National Climate Change Policy
Republic of Fiji
National Climate
Change Policy
National Climate Change
AdaptationStrategy
Land Based Resources
Local Engagement - continued
� National Disaster Management Office• Meteorological drought assessment and advisory
• National drought steering committee
• National drought technical working group
• Community Based Disaster Risk Management – Early Flood Warning
� Others• ADB - Strengthening Capacity of the developing member
countries to respond to climate change
Trends and Projections
New Climate monitoring Sites
Extension of town boundary (Nausori Town)
� Pacific Island Climate Prediction Project (PICPP);
� Pacific Adaptation Science Assistance Program (PASAP);
� Pacific Climate Change Science Program (PCCSP);
� South Pacific Sea Level and Climate Monitoring;
� Online Outlook Forums (OCOF and ICU);
� Working Group on Climate Matters and Rapportuer on
education and training in RA V.
Regional Activities
• WMO
oWorld Radiation Data Centreo International Climate Message
oStatus of Global Climate and Decadal SummaryoEl Nino/La Nina Update
• IPCC – Focal Point
• UNFCCC (Second National Communications)
International
Voluntary Observers
Radar andWeatherSatellites
AnemographStations
AutomaticWeatherStationsAirstrips
RainfallObservation
Upper Air
Met. OfficeStaions
PWDStations
Legal &Insurance
Design&
Planning
Industry &Engineering
Quality ControlChecks by
Eye and ComputerPaper ComputerArchive Archive
Climate DivisionNadi Airport, Fiji
Enquiry
Transport
Tourism
International Enquires
Government
EducationOffshoreIndustry
OUT
IN
Research Landuse
International Regional
Meteorological PublicationsSummaries, Analysis, etc.
Meteorological LibraryLoans
Flow Chart of Climatological Information
Expectations
A coordinated approach in:
� Standardizing Instrument & QC Methodology;
� Bench marking Climatologists with formal qualifications;
� Continual Capacity and skills Development;
� Availability of user friendly tools for climate data analysis;
� CLiDE-ESC availability to Fiji (generate products/policies for government and stakeholders);
� Learn from other countries & research institutions, adapt and apply.