Document of
The World Bank
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Report No: PAD2207
INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT
INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION
PROJECT PAPER
ON A
PROPOSED ADDITIONAL GRANT
FROM THE COOPERATION IN INTERNATIONAL WATERS IN AFRICA TRUST FUND
IN THE AMOUNT OF US$8.5 MILLION
TO THE
NILE BASIN INITIATIVE
FOR A SECOND ADDITIONAL FINANCING
FOR THE NILE COOPERATION FOR RESULTS PROJECT
April 26, 2017
Water Global Practice
Africa Region
This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the
performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World
Bank authorization.
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FISCAL YEAR
July 1 – June 30
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
AF Additional Financing
AF1 First Additional Financing
AF2 Second Additional Financing
CFA Cooperative Framework Agreement
CIWA Cooperation in International Waters in Africa
CMU Country Management Unit
DRC Democratic Republic of Congo
DSS Decision Support System
EN Region Eastern Nile Region
ENTRO Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office
ESIA Environmental and Social Impacts Assessment
EU European Union
FY Fiscal Year
HEP Hydro Electric Potential
ICOLD International Commission on Large Dams
IDA International Development Association
MDTF Multi-Donor Trust Fund
MSIOA Multi-Sectoral Investment Opportunity Analysis
NBDF Nile Basin Development Forum
NBI Nile Basin Initiative
NBTF Nile Basin Trust Fund
NCORE Nile Cooperation for Results
NELCOM Nile Equatorial Lakes Council of Ministers
NELIP Nile Equatorial Lakes Investment Program
NEL Region Nile Equatorial Lakes Region
NELSAP-CU Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program Coordination Unit
NGO Non-Governmental Organization
Nile-COM Council of Ministers of Water Affairs in the Nile Basin Countries
Nile-SEC Nile Basin Initiative Secretariat
PAD Project Appraisal Document
PDO Project Development Objectives
PPIAF Public-Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility
TAC Technical Advisory Committee
iii
Regional Vice President: Makhtar Diop
Country Director: Ahmadou Moustapha Ndiaye
Senior Global Practice Director:
Practice Manager/Manager:
Guang Zhe Chen
Jonathan Kamkwalala
Task Team Leader: Eileen Burke
iv
NILE BASIN INITIATIVE
SECOND ADDITIONAL FINANCING FOR THE
NILE COOPERATION FOR RESULTS PROJECT
CONTENTS
Project Paper Data Sheet v
Project Paper
I. Introduction 1
II. Background and Rationale for Additional Financing 1
III. Proposed Changes 9
IV. Appraisal Summary 13
19
V. World Bank Grievance Redress
Annexes
1. Results Framework 20
2. Detailed Description of Modified or New Project Activities 30
3. Detailed Project Costs 33
4. Implementation Arrangements 34
v
ADDITIONAL FINANCING DATA SHEET
Eastern Africa
Nile Cooperation for Results Project (NCORE) - Additional Financing 2 ( P162304 )
AFRICA
GWA01
Basic Information – Parent
Parent Project ID: P130694 Original EA Category: A – Full Assessment
Current Closing Date: 30-Apr-2017
Basic Information – Additional Financing (AF)
Project ID: P162304 Additional Financing
Type (from AUS): Restructuring, Scale Up
Regional Vice President: Makhtar Diop Proposed EA Category: A – Full Assessment
Country Director: Ahmadou Moustapha
Ndiaye
Expected Effectiveness
Date: 30-Apr-2017
Senior Global Practice
Director: Guang Zhe Chen Expected Closing Date: 30-Nov-2020
Practice
Manager/Manager: Jonathan S. Kamkwalala Report No: PAD2207
Team Leader(s): Eileen Rose Burke
PHApp
AuthTbl Approval Authority
Approval Authority
RVP Decision
Please explain
As this Additional Financing is to be financed by trust funds, the decision authority is with RVP.
Borrower
Organization Name Contact Title Telephone Email
Nile Basin Initiative
Secretariat Innocent Ntabana
Executive
Director
(256) 414-321-
424/321329 [email protected]
Project Financing Data - Parent
(AFCC2/RI-Nile Cooperation for Results Project-P130694) (in USD Million)
Key Dates
Project Ln/Cr/TF Status Approval
Date Signing Date
Effectiveness
Date
Original
Closing Date
Revised Closing
Date
P130694 TF-13766 Closed 26-Dec-2012 26-Dec-2012 11-Feb-2013 31-Dec-2014 31-Dec-2014
vi
P130694 TF-13767 Effective 26-Dec-2012 26-Dec-2012 11-Feb-2013 31-Dec-2015 30-Apr-2017
Disbursements
Project Ln/Cr/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbu
rsed % Disbursed
P130694 TF-13766 Closed USD 18.80 16.47 2.33 16.47 0.00 100.00
P130694 TF-13767 Effective USD 14.50 14.50 0.00 14.45 0.05 99.63
Project Financing Data - Nile Cooperation for Results Project (NCORE) - Additional Financing 2
(P162304) (in USD Million)
[ ] Loan [X] Grant [ ] IDA Grant
[ ] Credit [ ] Guarantee [ ] Other
Total Project Cost: 8.50 Total Bank Financing: 8.50
Financing Gap: 0.00
Financing Source – Additional Financing (AF) Amount
Cooperation in International Waters in Africa 8.50
Total 8.50
Policy Waivers
Does the project depart from the CAS in content or in other significant
respects? No
Does the project require any policy waiver(s)? Yes
Explanation
Procurement: The project has received an exception from the requirement to implement the new procurement
framework, pursuant to paragraph 3, Section VI of the World Bank Directive “Procurement in IPF and Other
Operational Procurement Matters” and pursuant to the instructions set out in Section III - Scope, - I. Procurement
During IPF Preparation - C. Additional Financing of the World Bank Procedure “Procurement in IPF and Other
Operational Procurement Matters.”
Operational Policy 7.50. While OP 7.50 is triggered by the project, the project is exempt from the notification
requirement, as studies proposed under the project are upstream in nature and do not involve studies beyond
feasibility studies. However, such studies must include “in the terms of reference for the activities an
examination of any potential riparian issues".
Has the waiver(s) been endorsed or approved by Bank Management? Yes
Explanation
Procurement. The waiver was received on January 30, 2017 from the Acting Chief Procurement Officer of
OPCS.
Operational Policy 7.50. The waiver of the notification requirement was endorsed by the Regional Vice
President in 2012, in advance of the original project approval.
vii
Bank Staff
Name Role Title Unit
Eileen Rose Burke Team Leader (ADM
Responsible)
Sr. Water Resources Mgmt. Spec. GWA02
Dawit Tadesse
Mekonnen
Program Assistant Program Assistant GWA01
Antoinette Kamanzi Procurement Specialist Procurement Assistant AFMRW
Ayalew Kebede Belew Procurement Specialist Senior Procurement Specialist GGO01
Mulugeta Dinka Procurement Specialist Senior Procurement Specialist GGO01
Abiy Demissie Belay Financial Management
Specialist
Sr. Financial Management
Specialist
GGO25
Anjali Lohani Basnet Team Member Consultant GWA01
Boyenge Isasi Dieng Safeguards Specialist Senior Social Development
Specialist
GSU07
Christiaan Johannes
Nieuwoudt
Team Member Finance Officer WFALA
Edwin Nyamasege
Moguche
Team Member Consultant GGO25
Enagnon Ernest Eric
Adda
Team Member Sr. Financial Management
Specialist
GGO31
Grace Nakuya Musoke
Munanura
Team Member Senior Procurement Specialist GGO01
Habab Taifour Team Member Sr. Water Resources Mgmt. Spec. GWA04
Hocine Chalal Safeguards Specialist Lead Environmental Specialist GEN07
K. Anna Kim Team Member Operations Analyst GWA08
Nagaraja Rao
Harshadeep
Team Member Lead Environment Specialist GENDR
Nathalie S. Munzberg Safeguards Advisor Regional Safeguards Adviser OPSPF
Nightingale Rukuba-
Ngaiza
Counsel Senior Counsel LEGAM
Locations
Country Location Planned Actual Comments
Rwanda Republic of Rwanda N/A N/A Given the technical
assistance nature of the
project, there are no
planned physical works in
any specific locations.
Tanzania United Republic of Tanzania N/A N/A
Kenya Republic of Kenya N/A N/A
Democratic Republic of the Congo N/A N/A
Uganda Republic of Uganda N/A N/A
viii
Ethiopia Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia N/A N/A
Egypt, Arab
Republic of
Arab Republic of Egypt N/A N/A
Sudan Republic of the Sudan N/A N/A
Burundi Republic of Burundi N/A N/A
South Sudan South Sudan N/A N/A
Institutional Data
Parent ( AFCC2/RI-Nile Cooperation for Results Project-P130694 )
Practice Area (Lead)
Water
Contributing Practice Areas
Additional Financing Nile Cooperation for Results Project (NCORE) - Additional Financing 2 (P162304 )
Practice Area (Lead)
Water
Contributing Practice Areas
Agriculture, Energy & Extractives, Environment & Natural Resources
1
I. Introduction
1. This Project Paper seeks the approval of the Regional Vice President to provide a second
additional financing (AF2) in the amount of US$8.5 million from the Cooperation in International
Waters in Africa (CIWA) trust fund to the Nile Basin Initiative for the Nile Cooperation for Results
(NCORE) Project (P130694), along with a level-two restructuring.
2. The proposed AF2 will help finance the costs associated with scaling up the results and
deepening development effectiveness of the parent project by supporting new activities that build on
achieved results. The AF2 will focus on enabling Member States to work with the Nile Basin Initiative
(NBI) to build capacity to mainstream regional planning and coordination services provided by the NBI
Centers into their national and local planning and development processes. The AF2 will also better
enable the NBI to fulfil its new mandates, including of monitoring water availability and rainfall. By
supporting the strengthening of regional to national linkages and by increasing the scope of NBI’s
technical work, the AF2 reinforces the sustainability of results achieved under NCORE and enables
Member States to better benefit from the technical capacity of the NBI.
3. The Project Paper also seeks the approval of the extension of the closing date of the project from
April 30, 2017 to November 30, 20201, and a revision of the results framework to reflect additional
achievements enabled by the AF2, through new indicators and increased milestones of existing
indicators. The restructuring will include scaling back of two intermediate results indicator targets to
reflect more realism in expected achievements.
4. The NCORE Project is well-performing and has been rated as Satisfactory for Progress towards
the Development Objective and Implementation Progress since June 2016. The project has never been
rated below Moderately Satisfactory for these parameters. The project has already exceeded most of its
results targets for 2017.
5. As a result of the AF2 activities, it is expected that the Nile countries will have an improved
approach to cooperative water resources management and development, informed by analysis of real-
time data and analysis; increased access to NBI’s data, knowledge, and tools through an integrated web
portal; coordinated investment prioritization and planning through the Nile Equatorial Lakes Investment
Plan; enhanced cross-sectoral coordination at national and regional levels; expanded flood forecasting
services; improved dam safety; and increased long-term professional capacity for cooperative water
resources management and development across countries.
II. Background and Rationale for Additional Financing in the Amount of US$8.5 Million
1 While the extension of the project closing date will allow the NBI to undertake activities to support additional results, the
extension will also allow the NBI more time to complete an on-going Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA)
that has to be rebid, due to contractor non-performance, and to allow for more consultation before the finalization of other on-
going project studies.
2
COUNTRY CONTEXT
6. The Nile River Basin is a vital natural resource and economic lifeline for its 237 million
inhabitants, in eleven riparian countries (Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Egypt,
Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda). The basin is
characterized by a largely untapped potential for development, but with varied levels of poverty and
uneven rates of economic growth. Seven of the Nile riparian countries are amongst the world’s thirty
poorest. All economies are highly dependent on usage of natural resources, including for agriculture,
energy, and tourism. An estimated 75 percent of the population of Nile basin countries lives in rural
areas, where food security and livelihoods are highly vulnerable to the vagaries of nature, through their
rainfall dependence and exposure to floods and droughts. Low levels of infrastructure, institutional gaps,
and weak information systems limit the ability of the countries to respond to these challenges. The
impacts on people and economies in the region are devastating, especially on the poorest members of the
population.
7. Each Nile riparian country has ambitious national development plans for poverty alleviation that
encompass development of the river’s resources. These include enhanced energy availability, food
production, transportation, industrial development, domestic water supplies for rapidly increasing
populations, and environmental conservation. If unilateral plans are implemented without consideration
of the larger river basin context, there is a risk that some of the national investments in water-related
sectors could be sub-optimal, harm neighboring states, or foreclose future development opportunities.
Conversely, coordinated development and management of joint infrastructure could increase the returns
on investment in the basin.
8. In addition to realizing joint benefits, cooperation among countries is needed to manage shared
risks, particularly under a changing climate. Observed trends and climate models indicate an increase in
the basin’s natural variability, translating to longer and hotter dry periods, more intense episodes of rain,
and more severe droughts and floods. To build climate resilience in the Nile Basin, countries require
significant additional infrastructure, cooperative operation of existing and future infrastructure,
improved regional hydro-meteorological and early warning systems, and strengthened capacity to adapt
to extreme climatic events.
SECTORAL AND INSTITUTIONAL CONTEXT
9. Recognizing the need for a coordinated approach to basin-wide planning and development,
riparian countries formed the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) in 1999, an intergovernmental entity committed
to fostering cooperation, water resources management and water resources development. Over the next
fifteen years, supported by the US$200 million Nile Basin Trust Fund (NBTF) with contributions from
international donors and managed by the World Bank, and complemented by additional, in-parallel
support by other bilateral and multilateral partners, the NBI focused on bringing the Nile countries
together to build trust, capacity, and an enabling environment for investments, while concurrently
working with the countries to identify, prepare, and support the implementation of nationally-led
cooperative investment projects for mutual benefit. As a result, the NBI has grown to an established
regional institution, providing the only Nile basin-wide platform for regional dialogue in transboundary
water issues. Significantly, participating Nile countries have established the norm of jointly evaluating
3
and approving preparation of projects of transboundary significance identified by the NBI. The NBI has
identified, prepared or facilitated approximately US$1.5 billion of investments under implementation,
with an additional US$4.5 billion under preparation. This process is supported by the technical
foundation for water resources management and development created by the NBI, including a shared
knowledge base and tools to enable countries to understand the implications of their actions, and
opportunities for managing risks and realizing joint opportunities.
10. In 2013, with support from the NCORE project, the NBI pivoted its focus from institutional
strengthening towards consolidation and delivery – compiling previous work and applying newly-built
capacity to enable stronger service delivery. The proposed NCORE AF2 seeks to scale-up the
consolidation and delivery process by addressing gaps identified during NCORE implementation and
taking advantage of critical openings for furthering cooperative action in the basin that have arisen as a
result of NCORE-supported achievements.
11. It should be noted that this progress in regional cooperation continues despite complicated
hydro-politics outside of this project, including issues related to disagreements over the text of the
Cooperative Framework Agreement (a proposed international legal agreement that outlines principles,
rights and obligations for cooperative management and development of the Nile Basin water resources)
and unilateral development of multipurpose investment projects. Egypt’s participation in the NBI has
been frozen since 2010 because of some of these issues. These developments have intensified the need
for NBI to strengthen its strategic and technical role in order to demonstrate benefits of regional
cooperation, and to provide customized services to the diverse stakeholders of the institution, so that
regionally beneficial water resources management and development work can continue.
BACKGROUND AND ASSESSMENT OF PARENT PROJECT
12. The original NCORE Project was a US$15.3 million, three-year project, funded through the Nile
Basin Trust Fund (NBTF) (US$13.8 million) and Cooperation in International Waters in Africa (CIWA)
Multi-Donor Trust Fund (US$1.5 million) approved on December 26, 2012. A First Additional
Financing (AF1) (P147218) of US$18.0 million to NCORE funded through the NBTF (US$5.0 million)
and CIWA (US$13.0 million) was approved on June 27, 2014, bringing the project size to US$33.3
million and extending the project until April 30, 2017.
13. The project development objective (PDO) of the original and the current NCORE Project is “to
facilitate cooperative water resource management and development in the Nile Basin.” This is being
achieved through the provision of targeted technical assistance to the NBI member countries and broader
stakeholders, to facilitate cooperative activities and arrangements, improve integrated water resources
planning and management, and identify and prepare studies of potential investments of regional
significance. The activities are organized into three project components, each of which is implemented
by one of three NBI Centers: Component 1 by Nile Basin Initiative Secretariat (Nile-SEC); Component
2 by Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program Coordination Unit (NELSAP-CU); and
Component 3 by Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office (ENTRO)2.
2 For more information about the institutional structure of the Nile Basin Initiative, please see at www.nilebasin.org; or the
Project Appraisal document for the Parent Project: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/306271468193493154/Africa-
Nile-Cooperation-for-Results-Project
4
14. Since its effectiveness and through the AF, the project has been well-performing. It has been
rated as Satisfactory for Progress towards the Development Objective and Implementation Progress
since June 2016, and was rated Moderately Satisfactory before that time. Grant covenants including
audit and financial management requirements have been fully complied with to-date. As of April 2017,
99.83 percent of project funds had been disbursed and the PDO indicators are on track to being met or
have been exceeded. The project continues to support the NBI to take leadership in creating new
regional partnerships as well as enabling joint and coordinated actions that have increasingly brought
riparian countries along a long-term trajectory of cooperatively managing and developing the Nile water
resources. Component descriptions and notable achievements under this project (in alignment with
wider-development partner support) are described below.
15. Component 1: Advancing Nile Basin-Wide Cooperation and Analysis (Nile-SEC). Original
US$5.3 million, AF1 US$2.913 million. This component is supporting the Nile-SEC in its two core
functions of facilitating cooperation and water resources management, with two sub-components: (i)
strengthening the platform for basin-wide cooperation for sustainable water resource management and
development; and (ii) enhancing capacity and understanding for cooperative management and
development of water resources in the Nile Basin. The activities financed by AF1 expanded results
related to both sub-components and built on the new developments in the region by: (i) enhancing access
to NBI tools, knowledge, data and communications; (ii) strengthening stakeholder engagement; (iii)
strengthening delivery of cross-center results; and (iv) providing targeted support to South Sudan.
16. Notable achievements include:
A Basin-wide hydromet network design has been completed and approved by countries.
The NBI was able to forge agreement between countries to establish a regional hydromet
network, and helped the countries design the network. The European Union (EU) is in the
process of approving financing for a subset of the regional hydromet stations and other
stations are being prioritized within national budgets.
The Nile Basin Decision Support System (DSS) has been expanded to include two new
modeling tools related to climate change and tradeoff analysis. The DSS is increasingly
being applied at the national level, including in developing the Lake Tana Integrated Water
Resources Plan in Ethiopia, designing measures for flood control in the Sebeya River in
Rwanda, exploring water management scenarios in the Nyando catchment in Kenya, and
issuing water permits in Rwanda.
An official baseline of water use across the Nile Basin has been established after
endorsement by Council of Ministers of Water Affairs in the Nile Basin Countries (Nile-
COM). Agreement on a basin-wide water use baseline is a substantial step forward in
technical cooperation, as no official figures of this type have been agreed in the past.
Platforms for dialogue to promote Nile cooperation have been provided in partnership
with civil society organizations. These include the annual Nile Day celebrations and the
biennial Nile Basin Development Forum, highlighting the needs and opportunities for
cooperation.
17. Component 2: Promotion of Sustainable Development and Planning in the Nile Equatorial
Lakes Region (NELSAP-CU). Original US$5.2 million, AF1 US$12.544 million. This component is
supporting NELSAP-CU in its efforts to identify and prepare strategic cooperative investments in the
5
Nile Equatorial Lakes (NEL) region. The original component included two sub-components: (i)
identifying and promoting strategic opportunities to advance cooperative water resources management
and development; and (ii) preparing transformative investment projects of regional significance. The
AF1 funded activities that further built on these achievements by: (i) enhancing access to NELSAP-CU
tools, knowledge, data, communications and dissemination; (ii) preparation of additional investments
with regional benefits; and (iii) technical capacity building to water sector planning for South Sudan.
6
18. Notable achievements include:
NELSAP-CU facilitated agreement between the countries to proceed with preparation
of 37 new regionally-significant investment projects, emphasizing their technical
robustness, and environmental and social suitability. Several of these projects are under
consideration for financing by a range of donors, including the World Bank, the African
Development Bank, the Government of Korea, and others.
NELSAP-CU is preparing four multipurpose investment projects of regional
significance– through feasibility studies and ESIAs of the Kabuyanda Irrigation and
Watershed Management Project in Uganda, the Mara Valley and Ngono Irrigation and
Watershed Management Projects in Tanzania, and the Sio-Songo Irrigation Project in Kenya.
These projects target underserved areas with vulnerable populations characterized by high
poverty levels. The relevant characteristics of these potential investments are summarized in
the table on the following page.
NELSAP-CU is screening its investment pipeline for possible candidates for private
investment, with support from the World Bank’s Public-Private Infrastructure Advisory
Facility (PPIAF).
19. Component 3: Promotion of Sustainable Development and Planning in the Eastern Nile
Region (ENTRO). Original US$4.5 million, AF1 US$2.543 million. This component is supporting
ENTRO in promoting cooperation among Eastern Nile riparian countries in a challenging hydro-
political environment. The original component comprised two sub-components: (i) strengthening the
knowledge base and analytical framework for Eastern Nile water resources planning and management;
and (ii) promoting sustainable development and growth in the Eastern Nile. The AF1 funded additional
results through: (i) expansion of on-going analysis; (ii) enhancement, development and dissemination of
knowledge products; (iii) strengthening and maintaining Eastern Nile partnerships; and (iv) supporting
sustainable development: dam safety and watershed management.
20. Notable achievements include:
Regional and national dam safety units have been established in the Eastern Nile
following ministerial adoption of regional dam safety guidelines. ENTRO’s dam safety
program was recognized by the International Commission on Large Dams (ICOLD) as a new
area of global interest, and ICOLD is now preparing a working paper on ENTRO’s
experience.
Ethiopia and Sudan have adopted four watershed management projects prepared by
ENTRO, and resource mobilization is underway.
Flood early warning activities have been improved and scaled-up in the Eastern Nile. Approximately 350,000 people across the region receive early warning messages during
flood season and daily alerts in flood prone areas, while 1.7 million more people across the
region benefit indirectly from these alerts and messages, and are better able to reduce their
risk of flood devastation.
7
Table 1. Estimated Characteristics of potential multipurpose investment projects being studied under the
NCORE Project
Project Country Potential Benefits Details of Potential Projects
Mara Sub-Basin
Mara Valley
Irrigation
Development
and Watershed
Management
Project
Tanzania Irrigation: 8,340 ha
Storage: 16 MCM
Hydro-Electric Potential
(HEP): 2.8 MW
• Increases irrigated agriculture by 8,340 ha in Serengeti and
Butiyama Districts, with additional provision for
development in Tarime District; contributes to 12 percent of
the planned area for development of regionally significant
irrigation potential (estimated at 66,000 ha) by the Multi-
Sectoral Investment Opportunity Analysis (MSIOA) study
• More water efficient and climate and disaster resilient food
production system
• Seasonal storage, provision of water for livestock and
aquaculture, potential for closely linked rural water supply
scheme, assurance of e-flows for downstream wetlands
• Rural electrification through electricity generation of an
estimated 2.8MW firm power
Kagera Sub-Basin
Ngono Valley
Multipurpose
Water
Resources
Development
Project
Tanzania Irrigation: 6,720 ha
HEP: 1.6 MW
Storage: 251 MCM
• Provides irrigation and drainage for 6,720 ha, while
providing large scale drainage to an additional 1,964 ha,
benefiting small scale and large scale commercial farmers in
Bukoba Rural, Muleba, and Missenyi Districts
• More water efficient and climate and disaster resilient food
production system
• Water storage and flow regulation, drainage and flood control
infrastructure, as well as conservation of watersheds
• Installed capacity of 1.6MW for an estimated annual energy
production of 5.9 GWh for rural electrification
Kabuyanda
Irrigation and
Watershed
Management
project
Uganda Irrigation: 3,663 ha
HEP: 0.1 MW
Storage: 7 MCM
• Irrigation expansion of over 3,663 ha, benefiting sub counties
of Kabuyanda and Kikagate
• More water efficient and climate and disaster resilient food
production system
• Small HEP generation and water supply infrastructure, as
well as conservation of watersheds
• Contributes to Uganda’s Vision 2040 which includes
improvement in modernized and commercial agriculture
Sio-Malaba-Malakisi sub-basin
Sio-Sango
Irrigation
Development
and Watershed
Management
and
Kenya Irrigation: 1,700 ha
HEP: 350 kW
Storage: 4.9 MCM
• Provides irrigation for 1,700 ha in the Bungoma and
Kakamega vicinities of the Sio River Valley
• More water efficient and climate and disaster resilient food
production system
• Municipal water supply, livestock and fisheries production
• Enhanced household incomes and livelihoods, flood control,
environmental protection, boosted agricultural production
• Ancillary hydropower generation from combined irrigation
releases and surplus flows
• Contributes to Kenya’s Vision 2030, which prioritizes water
storage for increased agricultural production and power
generation, and also modernizing and commercializing
agriculture
8
21. With the success of the NBI, demand for just-in-time NBI services has increased, as countries
accelerate the rate of their infrastructure development and are recognizing the need to consider climate
change in their plans and designs. At multiple platforms for regional dialogue convened by the NBI
Centers – such as the NEL-COM meetings to prioritize and approve investments of regional significance
identified by NELSAP-CU, consultations around the EN Multi-Sectoral Investment Opportunity
Analysis (MSIOA) conducted by ENTRO, and meetings to shape NBI strategic direction led by Nile-
SEC – countries have requested support for capacity building, as well as preparation of investments.
22. The NCORE project and other World Bank support have been undertaken in close coordination
with other development partner support to the region. The NBI hosts annual meetings for its donors to
jointly assess progress, and the World Bank has also organized annual donor meetings for the
development partners that contribute to the CIWA trust fund (including Denmark, European Union,
Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom), and other active donors (including
Germany/GIZ and the United States) to ensure alignment of support. The coordinated approach to
donor assistance in the Nile allows the countries to reduce transaction costs and achieve greater returns
through coordinated programming.
RATIONALE FOR ADDITIONAL FINANCING
23. The AF2 seeks to deepen development effectiveness of the project by supporting additional
activities that will scale up results and build on achievements of the current project. Agreements among
NBI Member States reached under the current NCORE project have provided openings for further
advancing cooperative action. Member States have identified next steps to address their water resources
management and development challenges, including in the context of the water-related Sustainable
Development Goals. Requests for additional support have been received from Member States through
their Council of Ministers, as well as the NBI.
24. Recognizing that capacity gaps at the national level can limit the extent of benefits that countries
harness through NBI services, Member States have also sought additional support for working with the
NBI to build capacity to mainstream regional planning and coordination services provided by the NBI
Centers into their national and local planning and development processes. Strengthening regional-
national linkages are critical for reinforcing the sustainability of results achieved under NCORE and
enabling Member States to better benefit from the technical capacity of the NBI.
25. Since NCORE funds are fully allocated and most activities are expected to be completed by the
project’s current closing date of April 2017, and considering that additional support that countries have
requested will directly build on the current project and contribute to the NCORE PDO, an additional
financing is the most effective way to provide support. An AF2 would build on the cooperative
momentum built by the countries, while also minimizing procedural requirements and associated
transaction costs required if this support were to be provided under a new operation. Given that
countries’ plans for cooperative engagement are greater than funding available, the AF2 will focus
support to those areas where there is the greatest strategic need and that have seen the most progress in
each of the NBI’s three Centers.
26. The NCORE project and the AF2 are aligned with World Bank strategies for the region. The
NCORE project supports several of the pillars in the Africa Regional Integration Strategy, including
9
Regional Infrastructure, Coordinated Interventions to Provide Regional Public Goods, and Regional
Planning. The project is also aligned with the Africa Climate Business Plan. In addition, the NCORE
project coordinates and supports several-national level World Bank projects in water resources,
including projects in Ethiopia, Kenya, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda.
27. The Additional Financing is incorporating several lessons learned from earlier NBI work. The
decision to support existing national-level inter-sectoral committees follows from the recognition that
NBI information and analysis could be better mainstreamed into country level decision making. In
addition, recognizing that the needs of the countries are quickly evolving, some of AF2 will support just-
in-time analysis and training, so that the NBI can help countries address issues that emerge after project
approval but that fit within the scope of the project.
28. To ensure sustainability of outcomes of the NCORE project, the AF2 will place increased
emphasis on strengthening the NBI’s financial sustainability, as well as building capacity of Member
States to continue to work with the NBI after the project has ended. Over the course of the NCORE
project, the World Bank and its CIWA Multi-Donor Trust Fund (MDTF) donors have increased pressure
on the Member States to increase their ownership of the NBI through funding the core institutional costs
of the NBI. Beginning in July 2017, Member States are expected to cover the core institutional costs of
the NBI through their country contributions and other fees. Where this occurs, it will enable the World
Bank and its development partners to fund projectized-results (associated with the NCORE project, and
any future possible projects) without needing to support the core NBI institution itself. The project team
will continue to monitor compliance with previous country commitments to fund NBI core costs through
supervision missions.
III. Proposed Changes
29. The proposed AF2 and level-two restructuring will enhance the achievement of its development
objectives by extending the scope of its three components and associated result indicators. No changes
are proposed for the PDO, as all proposed activities will work to support the current PDO. It remains
“to facilitate cooperative water resource management and development in the Nile Basin.” In addition,
the proposed restructuring will extend the closing date of the project; make minor updates to the
procurement arrangements, and update the risk assessment for the project.
30. The proposed new activities are as follows (and as further detailed in Annex 2):
31. Component 1: Advancing Nile Basin-Wide Cooperation and Analysis (Nile-SEC). The AF2
will allow the Nile countries to work within their expanded mandate, to apply tools developed under the
NCORE project to help countries better understand the opportunities to overcome key hydro-related
challenges in the basin, through studies, consultations and other activities. This will advance
development of an NBI seasonal forecasting system, and enable dialogue with major water stakeholders
to discuss the implications of these forecasts. In addition, the Secretariat will increase its provision of
real-time data and analysis, including real time hydromet and evapotranspiration reports to be used by a
wide range of stakeholders. It will also include funding to create greater accessibility to NBI
information and analysis, through an integrated web portal that provides access to the resources of the
three NBI centers. The AF2 will also support a process to review and strengthen NBI’s financing
strategy, to work towards more sustainable financing mechanisms. Finally, the AF2 will support
10
activities and forums to discuss and debate Nile issues, informed by NBI tools and analysis, including
the Nile Basin Development Forum. The AF2 will focus on increasing involvement of high-level
stakeholders in Nile activities, including Permanent Secretaries (or their equivalents), to inform decision
making on Nile issues and to increase NBI financial sustainability.
32. Component 2: Promotion of Sustainable Development and Planning in the Nile Equatorial
Lakes Region (NELSAP-CU). Additional activities under this component will build on MSIOA and
other modelling and multipurpose project preparation advanced by NELSAP under NCORE. The
component will include support for NELSAP-CU to (i) work with the countries to prioritize a new Nile
Equatorial Lakes Investment Program (NELIP) that strengthens regional inter-sectoral coordination with
national sector-wide planning; (ii) build capacity within NELSAP-CU and its countries for strategic
communications and resource mobilization of prepared projects; and (iii) provide long-term targeted
technical capacity building to countries to help them assess their critical water resource challenges, and
to support engagement with inter-ministerial mechanisms at the national level on these issues. Within
this work, NELSAP-CU is expected to help the countries explore the possibility of a new regional
investment program funded by IDA.
33. Component 3: Promotion of Sustainable Development and Planning in the Eastern Nile
Region (ENTRO). Additional activities under this component will build on the momentum generated
by ENTRO’s successful flood forecasting, regional dam safety, and MSIOA process. The component
will include support for ENTRO to (i) continue and expand issuance of seasonal and daily flood
forecasts to governments, communities, NGOs, including potentially to South Sudan; (ii) build technical
capacity in new national dam safety offices, including through strengthening the working partnership of
a regional network of dam operators; (iii) provide increased real-time and technical data and analysis to
countries; (iv) scale-up ENTRO’s young professionals program and academic partnerships to continue
building a new set of leaders in the Eastern Nile, among others; and (v) undertake an evaluation of the
success of various pilot livelihood-based integrated watershed management interventions conducted by
ENTRO, to inform riparian-led scale up of select best and most viable practices, as well as training of
practitioners on lessons learned.
34. The AF2 is expected to be used for technical assistance, upstream analytical work, capacity
building and dialogue activities, and is not expected to be used for any additional feasibility studies for
potential multi-purpose investments.
35. A summary of the proposed changes is presented in the datasheet below.
11
Summary of Proposed Changes
The proposed US$8.5 million second additional financing AF2 will maintain the PDO and implementation
structure of the parent project, and increase the scope of the existing components to scale up the development
effectiveness of the project by supporting additional activities. The Project Paper also seeks the approval for (i)
extending the closing date of the project to November 30, 2020; and (ii) revising the results framework to
capture the full scope of the project, and adjusting related parameters, like components and costs, disbursement
estimates, implementation schedule.
Change in Implementing Agency Yes [ ] No [ X ]
Change in Project's Development Objectives Yes [ ] No [ X ]
Change in Results Framework Yes [ X ] No [ ]
Change in Safeguard Policies Triggered Yes [ ] No [ X ]
Change of EA category Yes [ ] No [ X ]
Other Changes to Safeguards Yes [ ] No [ X ]
Change in Legal Covenants Yes [ ] No [ X ]
Change in Loan Closing Date(s) Yes [ X ] No [ ]
Cancellations Proposed Yes [ ] No [ X ]
Change in Disbursement Arrangements Yes [ ] No [ X ]
Reallocation between Disbursement Categories Yes [ ] No [ X ]
Change in Disbursement Estimates Yes [ X ] No [ ]
Change to Components and Cost Yes [ X ] No [ ]
Change in Institutional Arrangements Yes [ ] No [ X ]
Change in Financial Management Yes [ ] No [ X ]
Change in Procurement Yes [ X ] No [ ]
Change in Implementation Schedule Yes [ X ] No [ ]
Development Objective/Results PHHHDO
Project’s Development Objectives
Original PDO
The development objective for the proposed project is to facilitate cooperative water resource management and
development in the Nile Basin.
Change in Results Framework PHHCRF
Explanation:
The results framework is revised to reflect additional achievements enabled by the AF2, through increased
targets for existing indicators. In addition, a new indicator is being added at the PDO-level, to measure the
increase in cooperation between the countries that can be partly or fully attributed to the project, as reflected in
12
official meeting minutes of the Nile Council of Ministers or their Technical Advisory Committee.
The restructuring will include scaling back of two intermediate result indicator targets related to gender, as
they were set too high at the time of project design and some elements are outside the control of the project. In
addition, one target related to the “hectares of watershed improved through the project” will be lowered by 17
percent, as this target was also set too high at the outset of the project. These changes to the results framework
at the intermediate outcome level are not expected to affect the overall achievement of results at the PDO
level.
Risk PHHHRISKS
Risk Category Rating (H, S, M, L)
1. Political and Governance High
2. Macroeconomic Moderate
3. Sector Strategies and Policies Substantial
4. Technical Design of Project or Program Moderate
5. Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability Substantial
6. Fiduciary Substantial
7. Environment and Social Moderate
8. Stakeholders Substantial
9. Other
OVERALL Substantial
Finance
Loan Closing Date - Additional Financing ( Nile Cooperation for Results Project
(NCORE) - Additional Financing 2 - P162304 )
Source of Funds Proposed Additional Financing Loan Closing Date
Cooperation in International Waters in Africa 30-Nov-2020
Loan Closing Date(s) - Parent ( AFCC2/RI-Nile Cooperation for Results Project -
P130694 )
PHHCLCD
Explanation:
To allow for continued implementation of project.
Ln/Cr/TF Status Original Closing
Date
Current Closing
Date
Proposed
Closing Date
Previous Closing
Date(s)
TF-13766 Closed 31-Dec-2014 31-Dec-2014 31-Jul-2015
TF-13767 Effective 31-Dec-2015 30-Apr-2017 30-Nov-2020 31-Dec-2015,
30-Apr-2017
Change in Disbursement
Estimates
(including all sources of Financing)PHHCDE
Explanation:
13
Disbursement projections have been added for fiscal years 2018 through 2021 to reflect the new financing
being added to the project.
Expected Disbursements (in USD Million)(including all Sources of Financing)
Fiscal Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Annual 1.63 2.00 1.50 1.50 2.01
Cumulative 32.46 34.46 35.96 37.46 39.47
Allocations - Additional Financing ( Nile Cooperation for Results Project (NCORE) -
Additional Financing 2 - P162304 )
Source of
Fund Currency
Category of
Expenditure
Allocation Disbursement %(Type
Total)
Proposed Proposed
CIWA USD
(1) Goods, non-
consulting services,
consultants’ services,
Training, and Operating
Costs under Part 1 of the
Project
2,000,000.00 100.00
CIWA USD
(2) Goods, non-
consulting services,
consultants’ services,
Training, and Operating
Costs under Part 2 of the
Project
3,100,000.00 100.00
CIWA USD
(3) Goods, non-
consulting services,
consultants’ services,
Training, and Operating
Costs under Part 3 of the
Project
3,400,000.00 100.00
CIWA USD Unallocated 0.00 0.00
Total: 8,500,000.00
Components
Change to Components and Cost
Explanation:
Additional funding is being added to Components 1, 2, and 3 to allow for new activities. Funding reflected
below is for grant TF167367 from the CIWA Trust Fund only, as the portion of the project financed by the
Nile Basin Trust Fund has already closed.
US$250,000 of the US$300,000 unallocated category was preliminarily allotted to Component 3 for activities
at ENTRO through an Aide Memoire in 2016. Through this Additional Financing, this reallocation is being
14
formalized.
There are no changes to the Project Description for Part A included in the Amendment to the Grant Agreement
for the project, because the Project Description in the existing grant agreement is sufficiently broad to include
the new activities proposed in this Additional Financing paper. However, text is being added to the Project
Description for Part B of the project in the Amendment to the Grant Agreement in order to include the new
proposed activities described in this paper, namely “activities to promote cooperative development and
management of the Nile Basin water resources in the project area.” For the Project Description for Part C of
the project, the words “environmental and social” have been deleted from the grant agreement through the
amendment, as the trainings provided through the project are being offered to a range of specialist, not
exclusively to environmental and social specialists.
Current Component Name Proposed Component Name
Current
Cost
(US$M)
Propose
d Cost
(US$M)
Action
1. Advancing Nile Basin-Wide
Cooperation and Analysis
1. Advancing Nile Basin-Wide
Cooperation and Analysis 1.60 3.60 Revised
2. Promotion of Sustainable
Development and Planning in the
Nile Equatorial Lakes Region
2. Promotion of Sustainable
Development and Planning in the
Nile Equatorial Lakes Region
11.60 14.70 Revised
3. Promotion of Sustainable
Development and Planning in the
Eastern Nile Region
3. Promotion of Sustainable
Development and Planning in the
Eastern Nile Region
1.00 4.65 Revised
Unallocated Unallocated 0.30 0.05 Revised
Total: 15.30 23.00
Change in Procurement PH
Explanation:
Minor changes will be made to the procurement arrangements, to apply updated procurement prior review
thresholds and to use the Systematic Tracking of Exchanges in Procurement. The project will continue to
carry out procurement in accordance with the World Bank’s “Guidelines: (i) Procurement of Goods, Works,
and Non-Consulting Services under IBRD Loans and IDA Credits & Grants by World Bank Borrowers” dated
January 2011 and revised July 2014; “(ii) Selection and Employment of Consultants under IBRD Loans and
IDA Credits & Grants by World Bank Borrowers” dated January 2011 and revised July 2014. The project has
received a waiver from the requirement to implement the new procurement framework, pursuant to paragraph
3, Section VI of the World Bank Directive “Procurement in IPF and Other Operational Procurement Matters”
and pursuant to the instructions set out in Section III - Scope, - I. Procurement During IPF Preparation - C.
Additional Financing of the World Bank Procedure “Procurement in IPF and Other Operational Procurement
Matters.”
Change in Implementation Schedule PHHCI
Explanation:
The closing date is being extended until November 30, 2020 to allow NBI to undertake additional activities to
scale-up the development effectiveness of the project.
15
Appraisal Summary
Economic and Financial Analysis PHHASEFA
Explanation:
The AF2 is justified from an economic and financial perspective in terms of the project’s development impact,
public sector provision of these services, and the World Bank’s value added. Further, the activities to be
supported through the AF2 support the World Bank’s goals of ending extreme poverty and promoting shared
prosperity.
Development Impact. Earlier support provided through the project has helped the countries to, through the
NBI’s leadership, establish a foundation of shared tools and analysis, regional institutional frameworks, and
joint investment prioritization and coordinated preparation. The economic and financial significance of the
development impact stemming from country collaboration at basin and sub-basin scales cannot be understated,
as far greater costs can be incurred as a result of non-cooperation. However, the true development impact of
these results will be harnessed in the longer-term, and is contingent upon countries mobilizing these
foundational elements for regional collaboration as they advance slower moving investment targets at regional,
national, and local levels. While the NBI has already collaboratively advanced US$1.5 billion of investment
projects in power transmission and interconnection, water storage, agriculture and flood forecasting, which are
currently under implementation, and currently has over US$4.5 billion of additional investments under
preparation, these are only a starting point to addressing East Africa’s development and climate resilience
investment needs. At this stage, dedicated additional support to consolidate NCORE results -- for example by
compiling NBI tools and providing access through a single web portal ---and mainstream regional planning
and coordination into national and sub-national development processes -- by helping establish inter-sector
coordination mechanisms within countries, and strengthening their working partnerships with the NBI --can
provide significant economic and financial returns by ensuring long term sustainability of already achieved
outcomes.
While the actual rates of return of the AF2 activities are challenging to calculate given the longitudinal nature
of the project’s outcomes, a “no-support” scenario, in which the NCORE project is closed in 2017, risks
countries diverging from a path of coordinated development due to insufficient country capacity to understand
or adopt NBI services. The consequences could be formidable, including possible proliferation of
uncoordinated water resources development in the basin and advancing of high-stakes unilateral projects that
could lead to deterioration of economic and livelihood conditions for poorer populations in the basin, increased
environmental and social risks under a changing climate, and fueling of transboundary conflict beyond the
water sector. For instance, for the driest of all possible hydropower projections, there could be losses of 60
percent (or up to US$13.2 billion) of hydropower revenues in the NEL Region and over 30 percent (US$7
billion) in the Eastern Nile. Planning for potential hydropower impacts and establishing cooperative
mechanisms to respond to climate change can help reduce these impacts. The costs associated with an
illustrative no-support scenario provide a reason to support the AF2 activities.3
Additionally, the World Bank has identified the need for more work to prepare infrastructure projects in the
region, and notes that public expenditure for infrastructure in Africa in absolute terms is low compared to other
regions. To ensure application of the investment planning tools that the NBI has developed and improve
overall country coordination in investment planning and implementation, the AF2 will support a number of
activities around establishing a new Nile Equatorial Lakes Investment Program and building country and
NELSAP-CU capacity for resource mobilization. These activities will help countries further institutionalize a
3 Cervigni, Raffaello, Rikard Liden, James E. Neumann, and Kenneth M. Strzepek. 2015. Enhancing the Climate Resilience
of Africa’s Infrastructure: The Power and Water Sectors. Africa Development Forum series. Washington, DC: World Bank.
16
cooperative investment planning approach and translate their prepared investments into development projects.
While there is no numerical estimate to the benefits that can be achieved through this cooperation, one
estimate of the benefits derived from coordination of irrigation and hydropower across the basin are US$4.943
billion annually, compared to the low level of cooperation in 2005. This does not include benefits arising
from the coordination of delivery of water, flood control, navigation or other benefits, which would increase
this amount4. The NCORE project cannot claim to advance cooperation to the level needed for this type of
achievement; but it does aim to help the countries better understand where more cooperation is needed, and to
engage in more cooperative planning of investments.
Public Sector Provision of Services. Public sector provision of the services provided through this AF2 is also
justified. In many cases, the knowledge and information services provided through the project are global and
regional public goods. The AF2 activities will support further development of knowledge base and information
systems in the basin. The seasonal and daily flood forecasts are expected to be used by government and
international efforts to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of disaster risk planning and response efforts.
Similarly, the real time hydromet data and monthly evapotranspiration reports provided are expected to be
applied by a wide range of agencies across water-related sectors, thereby generating economic and financial
benefits. A recent survey of the benefit cost ratio of improvements to the hydromet networks in developing
countries found that returns on such investments ranged from 2:1 to 5:1.5 The need to monitor and understand
changes in hydrology will be more critical with climate change. Additionally, the activities funded by the AF2
will further the project’s contribution to building long-term professional capacity in the basin, and creating and
maintaining networks of water professionals throughout the region.
Public execution of this work is also warranted given the NBI’s unique position in the region. The NBI was
created through negotiation between the countries, and exchange of data and information has also been
carefully negotiated and agreed upon, thus reducing the historic mistrust between the governments. The NBI
is the regional Nile entity with the most comprehensive agreements for data sharing and joint modelling tools
agreed by its active members, and has working partnerships with water ministries across all active member
countries. Given the aims of the AF2 to strengthen inter-sectoral coordination mechanisms and improve
country capacity to utilize NBI services, successful implementation will rely on an established basin-wide
network among country governments and a high level of trust and confidence, making the entry costs for
another actor to undertake this work prohibitively high. The use of a public regional mechanism to implement
this work is more efficient than undertaking this work at the national level because of economies of scale.
Further, the NBI regional offices are able to pool national and local information, providing better access to
regional information and analysis than would be available if the work were undertaken at the national level.
World Bank’ Added Value. The World Bank’s added value in financing this project comes through its
convening power, as well as its long-standing experience with regional water management and development.
For over 15 years, the World Bank led a consortium of donors (ten of whom contributed to the NBTF and
seven of which coordinated their activities in parallel; and six of whom continue to contribute through CIWA)
in their support for regional activities on the Nile. The use of a pooled mechanism has provided medium-term
predictability of resource availability necessary for phased delivery of support that allows deepening of
development impact by building on successes of earlier stages, while ensuring efficiency in design and
implementation of the program.
4 Whittington, Dale; Xun Wu, and Claudia Sadoff, 2005. “Water Resources Management in the Nile Basin: The Economic
Value of Cooperation. Water Policy 7, Pages 227-252. 5 World Meteorological Organization. Valuing Weather and Climate: Economic Assessment of Meteorological and
Hydrological Services. 2015m
17
Alignment with World Bank Goals. The AF2 supports the World Bank’s goals of ending extreme poverty and
increasing shared prosperity. Many of the NBI’s activities in this project have a focus on poverty reduction
and income generation. For example, the AF2 will extend flood modeling and warning coverage to support
unserved, high risk areas, which include border regions in Ethiopia and South Sudan characterized by high
levels of poverty and fragility, contributing to climate change adaptation and reducing risk of conflict.
Similarly the multipurpose projects prepared by NELSAP-CU which will be made bankable and advance
resource mobilization with AF2 support will bring benefits to populations with high levels of poverty in
Tanzania and Uganda. Analysis of poverty and focus on economic and livelihood improvement are central to
the design of investments supported by the NCORE project, and will be applied to the investment prioritization
process for the Nile Equatorial Lakes Investment Program supported by the AF2.
Technical Analysis PHHASTA
Explanation:
Given that the new activities being added to the project are similar to the activities already being undertaken,
there are no major changes to the previous technical appraisal. In order to ensure that AF2 activities are well-
targeted, areas for AF2 intervention have been identified by countries as priorities through a variety of
consultative processes at the NBI (NBI’s Strategic Planning workshop with their Technical Advisory
Committee (TAC); the ENTRO MSIOA consultations6, etc.), and have been selected for inclusion because of
linkages to on-going or projected key basin challenges. By supporting NBI in the execution of its expanded
mandate, the AF2 is also well positioned to help countries better understand the opportunities to overcome key
hydro-related challenges in the basin.
AF2 activities have also been chosen to focus on “last-mile connectivity,” where a small intervention can
leverage large results. The knowledge base and analytical tools that have been developed under various NBI
programs, and which are being updated and extended under NCORE, need to be consolidated and made more
accessible to stakeholders. NCORE AF2 activities have been designed to provide information and support
directly to decision makers, to maximize AF2 impact. The NBI and basin countries need additional capacity
for strategic communication and resource mobilization for investments prepared under the NCORE project, as
well as facilitation and support to institutionalize collaborative investment planning through a sub-basin
investment plan in the Nile Equatorial Lakes region. By strengthening cross-sectoral coordination at regional
and national levels, AF2 will ensure sustainability of the outcomes stemming from the past decade and a half
of support to the NBI.
The AF2 will be used to increase the sustainability of NCORE support, by further advancing NBI institutional
sustainability. The NBI’s “core costs” are defined in its Financial Strategy as those needed to operate its basic
programs and sustain the most important capacities, systems, and knowledge; these include expenses such as
maintenance of critical staff, minimum office running costs, governance, coordination and donor liaison
meetings, external audits, and NBI key reports and services. While Nile-SEC7 and ENTRO have received
country contributions, fees for services, and other measures to ensure their financial solvency, NELSAP-CU is
not yet financially solvent. To help close this financing gap, NELCOM decided in October 2016 that
NELSAP-CU will begin receiving payments from countries as fees on investment projects prepared by
6 Minutes of consultation meetings have been recorded by the Nile Basin Initiative.
7 Nile-SEC has an established “reserve fund,” which it uses to cover cash flow deficiencies when receipts of contributions
from countries are delayed, and to cover the contribution of countries that are unable to pay their annual contributions to the
Nile-SEC. To prevent the complete depletion of its “reserve fund,” the Nile-SEC plans to propose to its governance an
updated structure for the institution to correspond with its new strategic plan, as well as to agree on alternate sources of
income to off-set the countries that are not contributing to its annual budget.
18
NELSAP-CU, once the project enters implementation. This is seen as an important commitment by the
governments to ensure NELSAP-CU institutional sustainability. Further, the Project Appraisal Document for
the NCORE project specifies the need for financial solvency at all three centers before a second additional
financing or any future support from the CIWA Trust Fund can be provided. The project team will closely
monitor compliance with NELCOM’s decision and NELSAP-CU’s financial situation through project
supervision. Additionally, the AF2 will also support a process to review and strengthen the NBI’s financial
strategy, to work towards more sustainable financing mechanisms. Finally, through the project support, the
NBI will help its member countries explore the possibility of pursuing a regional program with the World
Bank financed by IDA.
Project readiness. The NBI centers have developed draft work plans for the new proposed activities and are
advancing the development of needed terms of reference, so that AF2 activities can begin shortly after project
approval.
Financial management (FM). No financial report and audit reports are overdue. The audit report opinion is
unqualified. The project FM performance has been satisfactory. Under the project, the Nile-Secretariat will be
upgrading its SUN accounting system to further strengthen FM systems.
Social Analysis PHHASSA
Explanation:
The NCORE parent project is designed to complement ongoing NBI operations and assist in the identification
of possible future investments through feasibility studies of potential water resources mobilization related
investments. Therefore, no physical investments (such as civil works) are included for financing. Instead
preparation studies and provision of technical assistance are envisaged.
The current NCORE project involves the study and preparation of potential future investments, including
reviews of the environmental and social impacts and as such, an Environmental and Social Management
Framework (ESMF) containing an environmental and social screening tool was prepared and disclosed in July
2012 by all three NBI organizations. An updated version was disclosed in March 2014. Resettlement Process
Frameworks have been prepared and disclosed for Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda in March
2014. A Vulnerable and Marginalized Groups Framework for Kenya was also disclosed in May 2014. All of
the instrument were re-disclosed by the World Bank in March 2017 under the project number of the Additional
Financing, for ease of reference.
Sites of possible future investments being studied to feasibility study and design level through this project have
been identified based on a screening process and relevant criteria include: the Sio-Sango River in Kenya; the
Mara Valley and Ngono project sites in Tanzania; and the Kabayanda project site in Uganda. A Feasibility
study was being undertaken for the Ruvironza project site in Burundi, but the work was discontinued for
reasons unrelated to the project.
Given the multi-purpose nature of the above investments being considered, there is a potential for adverse
environmental and social impacts if they be pursued and implemented. Should the screening results indicate
the possibility of any planned investments leading to issues of water pollution, ecosystem damage, land
acquisition, loss of livelihoods, and the presence of indigenous populations the project will be required to
prepare relevant safeguard instruments such as Environmental and Social Impact Assessments (ESIAs),
Resettlement Action Plans (RAPs), Indigenous Peoples Plans (IPPs), Process Frameworks (PFs), and any other
relevant instruments. ESIAs and RAPs are being prepared for the possible future investments being studied to
feasibility study and design level.
19
The project will continue ensuring that the pre-feasibility, feasibility and other preparation studies undertaken
by the project consider the lessons learned from projects in the context of basin-wide conditions. Particularly,
the NBI decision to adopt a set of selection criteria, including avoiding areas of global significance, or
territories occupied by indigenous communities, or sites with cultural or historical artifacts, indicates
sensitivities to Bank safeguards concerns. Moreover, the following actions will be undertaken to ensure that
environmental and social impacts are considered in the preparation of potential activities.
These include: (i) enhancement of the NBI databases to include gender-disaggregated and site-specific
information on vulnerable communities and environmentally sensitive areas where possible; (ii) development
of terms of reference for the studies that include specified activities for addressing environmental and social
vulnerability and mitigation responses that will be applicable even at the community level, including
cumulative impacts; (iii) provisions for a separate program to support the NBD and strengthen the role of civil
society groups and support women’ entrepreneurship, by providing more effective consultative and
participatory processes; and (iv) provisions for capacity building, including past and future training for NBI
officers and governments, and hiring of additional environment specialists in the NBI institutions as needed.
Environmental Analysis
Explanation:
Please see Social section above.
Risk
Explanation:
The overall risk of the project is rated Substantial. Due to political realities in the basin, including high-stakes
hydropolitics in the Eastern Nile, there is high risk that unfavorable political developments could adversely
impact the NBI and the project. Additionally, this political risk is reflected in the indicators for Institutional
Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability, for Stakeholders’ risks, and for Sector Strategies and Policies,
which are rated substantial. While the NBI currently has adequate capacity to undertake the project, there is a
risk that the NBI could be unable to retain or attract qualified staff or that key stakeholders will be unable to
participate because of the politics surrounding the Nile, affecting project implementation. Further, if political
tensions are high, there is less of a likelihood that Sector Strategies and Policies will reflect regional
considerations.
The World Bank and the Nile Basin Initiative have worked together to determine alternate implementation
modalities within the existing implementation structure, in case political discussions affect project
implementation.
While the risks related to hydropolitics outlined above could be considered to be vis major and outside the
control of the project, the project has been designed with flexibility to respond to these risks, should they
materialize. Specifically, the activities proposed in this AF2 focus on advancing technical cooperation, instead
of political considerations. The proposed results and activities are in areas of technical interest to NBI member
governments, irrespective of the political environment. Because the political environment may influence
project activities, the World Bank will continue to be vigilant in following political relations in the region.
Importantly, the World Bank team will continue to coordinate closely with country offices of the World Bank
and with other development partners who are engaged in efforts to advance Nile cooperation, with the teams of
other related projects, and with the respective CMUs.
The risk of Technical Design of Project is considered moderate because of issues faced by NELSAP-CU
around the quality of deliverables from one of its contractors working on the preparation of new investment
projects. The Bank team, in coordination with NELSAP-CU, will continue to closely supervise this work to
20
ensure quality control. If not for the investment preparation on-going in the parent project, the risk of technical
design of the project would be considered low.
There is also a substantial risk to the financial sustainability of the NBI. The NBI has been undertaking a
number of measures to increase its financial sustainability, so that it is not reliant on donors for its core
institutional funding. While two of the three NBI centers have received country contributions, fees for
services and employed other measures to ensure their financial solvency, NELSAP-CU has not been able to
put enough measures in place to cover its core institutional costs. To remedy this problem, the NEL-COM
took a decision in October 2016 that countries should begin paying a fee on investment projects prepared by
NELSAP-CU, once the project enters implementation. In order to see that this decision is implemented and to
mitigate the risk that NELSAP-CU will not be financially sustainable, the Project team will continue to
monitor compliance with this decision through project supervision. In addition, through the project activities,
the NBI will be revising its financing strategy, to work with countries to find new ways to further reduce donor
dependence.
V. World Bank Grievance Redress
1. Communities and individuals who believe that they are adversely affected by a World Bank
(WB) supported project may submit complaints to existing project-level grievance redress mechanisms
or the WB’s Grievance Redress Service (GRS). The GRS ensures that complaints received are promptly
reviewed in order to address project-related concerns. Project affected communities and individuals may
submit their complaint to the WB’s independent Inspection Panel which determines whether harm
occurred, or could occur, as a result of WB non-compliance with its policies and procedures. Complaints
may be submitted at any time after concerns have been brought directly to the World Bank's attention,
and Bank Management has been given an opportunity to respond. For information on how to submit
complaints to the World Bank’s corporate Grievance Redress Service (GRS), please visit
http://www.worldbank.org/GRS. For information on how to submit complaints to the World Bank
Inspection Panel, please visit www.inspectionpanel.org.
21
ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK
Project Development Objectives
Original Project Development Objective - Parent:
The development objective for the proposed project is to facilitate cooperative water resource management and development in the Nile Basin.
Proposed Project Development Objective - Additional Financing (AF):
Results
Core sector indicators are considered: Yes Results reporting level: Project Level
Project Development Objective Indicators
Status Indicator Name Core Unit of Measure Baseline Actual(Current) End Target
Revised Percentage of key stakeholders
who rate NBI services associated
with this project to promote
regional cooperation as
"satisfactory" or higher
Percentage Value 0.00 91.00 80.00
Date 01-Jan-2013 09-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2020
Comment
Revised Percentage of users of publically
available NBI tools, data, or
analysis associated with this
project who rate services as
"satisfactory" or higher
Percentage Value 0.00 71.50 75.00
Date 01-Jan-2013 09-Nov-2016 31-Dec-2020
Comment
Revised Value (USD) of potential
investment opportunities for
regional water resource
management or development
advanced under this project
Amount(USD) Value 0.00 3300000000.00 3400000000.00
Date 01-Jan-2013 09-Nov-2016 31-Dec-2020
Comment
Revised Number of projected beneficiaries
from work influenced by this
project (including investments to
be implemented in future)
Number Value 0.00 6311301.00 7500000.00
Date 01-Jan-2013 09-Nov-2016 31-Dec-2020
Comment
22
Revised Number of people trained on
trans-boundary issues
Number Value 0.00 2271.00 2600.00
Date 01-Jan-2013 09-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2020
Comment
Revised Direct project beneficiaries
Number Value 0.00 6311301.00 6500000.00
Date 01-Jan-2013 09-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2020
Comment
Revised Female beneficiaries
Percentage Value 0.00 18.00 18.00
Sub Type
Supplemental
New Number of cooperative decisions
whose agreement is facilitated by
this project
Number Value 0.00 68.00 74.00
Date 31-Jul-2012 31-Dec-2016 30-Nov-2020
Comment
Intermediate Results Indicators
Status Indicator Name Core Unit of Measure Baseline Actual(Current) End Target
Revised Sub-component 1: Number of
major regional fora for dialogue
between key stakeholders
facilitated
Number Value 0.00 41.00 51.00
Date 01-Jan-2013 09-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2020
Comment
Revised Number of major national fora for
dialogue between key stakeholders
facilitated
Number Value 0.00 40.00 68.00
Sub Type
Supplemental
Revised Sub-component 1: Nile-SEC:
Number of Nile Basin tools, data
and knowledge products made
available
Number Value 0.00 44.00 60.00
Date 01-Jan-2013 09-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2020
Comment
Revised Number of Nile Basin tools, data
and knowledge products of which
are public
Number Value 0.00 24.00 38.00
Sub Type Date 01-Jan-2013 09-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2020
Breakdown Comment
23
Revised Sub-component 1b: Establishment
of Water Resources Database at
the Water Ministry in South
Sudan
Yes/No Value No Yes Yes
Date 06-Feb-2013 09-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2020
Comment
Revised Sub-component 1b: Number of
registered users of DSS user
community
Number Value 0.00 170.00 210.00
Date 01-Mar-2013 09-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2020
Comment
Revised Sub-component 2a: NELSAP-CU:
Number of identified investment
projects in power and water
resource development approved
for preparation by NELTAC
Number Value 0.00 42.00 62.00
Date 01-Jan-2013 09-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2020
Comment
Revised Sub-component 2a: NELSAP-CU:
Number of knowledge products on
priority sub-basin issues
disseminated to key stakeholders
Number Value 0.00 56.00 71.00
Date 01-Jan-2013 09-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2020
Comment
Revised Sub-component 2b: NELSAP-CU:
Number of investment projects
undergoing major study through
this project
Number Value 0.00 8.00 8.00
Date 01-Jan-2013 09-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2020
Comment
Revised Percentage of which includes
analysis related to gender
Percentage Value 0.00 75.00 75.00
Sub Type
Supplemental
Revised Sub-component 3a: ENTRO:
Improved Eastern Nile regional
flood and drought forecasting
system made operational
Yes/No Value No Yes Yes
Date 01-Jan-2013 09-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2020
Comment
Revised Sub-component 3a: ENTRO:
Number of website hits to
improved ENTRO knowledge
products and analytical tools
Number Value 7000.00 33365.00 40000.00
Date 01-Jan-2013 09-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2020
Comment
Revised Sub-component 3b: ENTRO:
Percentage Value 0.00 94.00 85.00
24
Percentage of trainees who
considered that the training will
contribute to their work
Date 01-Jan-2013 09-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2020
Comment
Revised Sub-component 3b: ENTRO: Dam
safety framework and guideline
made available
Yes/No Value No Yes Yes
Date 01-Jan-2013 09-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2020
Comment
Revised Sub-component 3b: ENTRO:
hectares of watershed management
influenced by ENTRO services
Hectare(Ha) Value 185000.00 1590213.00 1824921.00
Date 01-Jan-2013 09-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2020
Comment
Revised Sub-component 3a: Availability of
real-time information and
forecasts for improved flood
management in South Sudan
Text Value None Flood Forecast
Model developed
for BAS in
Gambella
floodplains;
initiated for BAS in
Pibor Catchment;
flood forecast
report produced for
BAS
Flood forecasting
system active for
South Sudan
Date 01-Mar-2013 09-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2020
Comment
Revised Sub-component 3b: Technical
capacity for dam safety increased
in the Eastern Nile
Text Value 0 135 specialists
trained on Dam
Safety
Management;
Potential Failure
Mode Analysis
conducted on 7
dams (5 in
Ethiopia, 2 in
Sudan)
195 specialists
trained; Potential
Failure Mode
Analysis training
conducted for 7
dams
Date 01-Mar-2013 09-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2020
25
Comment
Revised Sub-component 3b: Number of
water related investment projects
influenced by project
Number Value 0.00 14.00 19.00
Date 01-Mar-2013 09-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2020
Comment
26
TABLE 2. REVISED RESULTS FRAMEWORK, WITH ANNUAL TARGETS
PDO Level Results Indicators
Unit of Measurem
ent
Baseline Progress To
Date -
Targets
Data Source/
Original Project
2016 Methodology
Start -
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
PDO1. Percentage of key stakeholders who rate NBI services associated with this project to promote regional cooperation as “satisfactory” or higher
Percentage
0 91 30 50 60 70 70 75 75 80 Survey conducted by
NBI centers
PDO2. Percentage of users of publically available NBI tools, data, or analysis associated with this project who rate services as “satisfactory” or higher8
Percentage
0 71.5 30 45 60 65 65 70 70 75
Survey to be administered on website; forum
surveys
PDO3. Value (USD) of potential investment opportunities for regional water resource management or development advanced under this project
Amount (USD)
0 3,300,000 0 1,610,000 1,910,000 2,800,000 3,000,000 3,350,000 3,400,000 3,400,000
Project documents (identification, pre-feasibility studies,
etc.)
PDO4. Regional Capacity to Engage on Transboundary Issues Strengthened (Number of people trained on transboundary issues
Number –
0 2271
2,350 2,500 2,600 Training records
a. SEC a. 100 a. 200 a. 200 a. 300 300
b. NELSAP-CU
b. 260 b. 450 b. 500 b. 525 550
c. ENTRO c. 116 c. 281 c. 300 c. 320 340
8 This indicator reflects citizen engagement.
27
PDO Level Results Indicators
Unit of Measurem
ent
Baseline Progress To
Date -
Targets
Data Source/
Original Project
2016 Methodology
Start -
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
PDO5. Direct project beneficiaries (percentage of which are female)
Number 0
36,081 2,750 4,450 4,700 5,060 5,260 45,000 55,000 65,000 Survey to be administered on website; forum surveys Percentage 18% 10% 15% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18%
PDO6. Number of projected beneficiaries from work influenced by this project (including investments to be implemented in future)
Number
0 6,311,301 570,000 821,200 1,008,400 1,008,400 1,008,400 6,500,000 7,000,000 7,500,000
Project documents (identification, pre-feasibility studies, etc.)
PDO7. Number of cooperative decisions whose agreement is facilitated by this project9
Number
0
6810
70 72 74 TAC and COM Minutes
9 “Cooperative decisions” are any recorded decisions in minutes of governance meetings – at either TAC or COM levels- to undertake new work. This can
include the decision to undertake new analysis, investment preparation, development or dialogue process. “Facilitated by this project” implies that the NCORE
financing has in some way contributed to the decision to pursue new activities, through analysis, project identification or preparation, or through dialogue. 10
While progress for this indicator has not been previously reported, as it is a new indicator, the NBI has now determined that from the start of the project until
December 2016, 68 cooperative decisions have been facilitated by this project.
28
Intermediate Results Indicators
Unit of Measurem
ent
Baseline Progress To
Date -
Target Values (cumulative)
Data Source/
Original Project
2016 Methodology
Start -
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Component 1a1: Number of major fora for regional/national dialogue between key stakeholders facilitated (regional/national)
Number 0 41/40 4/10 9/20 13/30 20/40 27/50 46/63 50/66 51/68 NBI Calendar
Component 1a2: Number of Nile Basin tools, data and knowledge products made available /(of which public)
Number 0 42/27 4/2 10/6 24/16 32/20 44/24 50/30 55/34 60/38 Web availability, records of report dissemination
Component 1b1: Establishment of Water Resources Database at the Water Ministry in South Sudan
Yes/No No Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Assessment at MWRI- Republic of South Sudan, Project Reports
Component 1b2: Number of registered users of DSS user community
Number 0 170 75 80 120 150 170 190 210 210 Web statistics
Sub-component 2a1: NELSAP-CU: Number of identified investment projects in power and water resource development approved for preparation by NELTAC
Number 0 42 10 10 12 14 16 58 60 62 NELTAC minutes
Sub-component 2a2: NELSAP-CU: Number of knowledge products on priority sub-basin issues
Number 0 56 8 16 20 24 30 69 70 71 Website
29
Intermediate Results Indicators
Unit of Measurem
ent
Baseline Progress To
Date -
Target Values (cumulative)
Data Source/
Original Project
2016 Methodology
Start -
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
disseminated to key stakeholders
Sub-component 2b1: NELSAP-CU: Number of investment projects undergoing major study through this project (Percentage of which includes analysis related to gender)
Number
0 (0%) 8 (75%) 0 2 (100%)
2 8 8 8 8 8 Project Reports
Percentage 100% 100% 100% 75% 75% 75%
Sub-component 3a1: ENTRO: Improved Eastern Nile regional flood and drought forecasting system made operational
Yes/No No Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes M&E reports
Sub-component 3a2: Availability of real-time information and forecasts for improved flood management in South Sudan
Custom None
Flood Forecast Model
developed for BAS in
Gambella floodplains; initiated for BAS in Pibor Catchment;
flood forecast report
produced for BAS
Flood forecasting
system initiated for
South Sudan
Flood forecasti
ng system active and
information
available for South
Sudan
Flood forecasting system
active and informatio
n available for South
Sudan
Flood forecasting system
active and informatio
n available for South
Sudan
Flood forecasting system
active and informatio
n available for South
Sudan
Flood forecasting system
active and informatio
n available for South
Sudan
Flood forecasting system
active and informati
on available for South
Sudan
Flood forecasting
system active and information available for South
Sudan
Project Reports, website
Sub-component 3a3: ENTRO: Number of hits to improved ENTRO knowledge products and
Number 0 33,365 1000 6000 6000 7000 8000 35,000 37,500 40,000 Website, app, other user statistics
30
Intermediate Results Indicators
Unit of Measurem
ent
Baseline Progress To
Date -
Target Values (cumulative)
Data Source/
Original Project
2016 Methodology
Start -
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
analytical tools
Sub-component 3b1: ENTRO: Percentage of trainees who considered that the training will contribute to their work
Percentage 0 94 50 75 75 75 75 80 85 85 Survey
Sub-component 3b2: ENTRO: Dam safety framework and guideline made available
Yes/No No Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes ENTRO website release
Sub-component 3b3: Technical capacity for dam safety increased in the Eastern Nile
Custom 0
135 specialists trained on Dam Safety
Management; Potential
Failure Mode Analysis
conducted on 7 dams (5 in Ethiopia, 2 in
Sudan)
21 specialists trained in
dam safety issues
60 specialist
s trained;
Potential Failure Mode
Analysis training
conducted for 5 dams
60 specialists trained; Potential Failure Mode
Analysis training
conducted for 5 dams
60 specialists trained; Potential Failure Mode
Analysis training
conducted for 5 dams
60 specialists trained; Potential Failure Mode
Analysis training
conducted for 5 dams
155 specialists trained; Potential Failure Mode
Analysis training
conducted for 7 dams
175 specialists
trained; Potential Failure Mode
Analysis training
conducted for 7 dams
195 specialists
trained; Potential Failure Mode
Analysis training
conducted for 7 dams
Training records
Sub-component 3b4: Number of water related investment projects influenced by project
Number 0 14 4 6 10 10 10 19 19 19 ENTRO reporting
Sub-component 3b5: ENTRO: hectares of watershed management influenced by ENTRO services
Hectare (Ha)
185,000 1,590,213 985,000 1,485,00
0 2,195,000 2,195,000 2,195,000 1,824,921 1,824,921 1,824,921 ENTRO reporting
31
ANNEX 2. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF MODIFIED OR NEW ACTIVITIES
1. The NBI has advanced cooperation between the Nile countries in several areas with the support of the
NCORE project, which will be further promoted under this AF2. With NCORE and other World Bank and donor
support, the NBI has developed state of the art tools, with which it has created new knowledge about the basin,
including improved understanding of basin potentials, risks and vulnerabilities, and opportunities to reduce these
risks through cooperation. The NBI has provided analysis to its countries, to highlight where increased
cooperation is needed, and has mapped out areas of predicted future water stress based on current national
development plans. With increased awareness of the importance of joint planning, demand for NBI services is
growing. Countries are making new requests for NBI analysis at the national and regional levels, and with NBI
tools being applied in water resources planning work by national and sub-basin agencies. To support this growing
demand, the NCORE support will allow the NBI and its active member countries to begin to more systematically
apply NBI tools and analysis in their policy making and investment planning. In addition, the NCORE AF2
support will allow the NBI to gather new data and information in additional areas of water resource management,
to comply with new requests from its member states, and to move the countries closer to basin-wide management.
2. As noted earlier in the project paper, the proposed AF2 will build on the implementation of the parent
project and is seeking to enhance the achievement of its development objectives by extending the scope of its
three components, to include new, related activities. As is the case with many NBI activities, the three centers
will contribute to the activities of other centers where appropriate. The new activities to be financed under the
AF2 are as follows:
3. Component 1: Advancing Nile Basin-Wide Cooperation and Analysis (Nile-SEC). The AF2 will
allow the Nile countries to work within their expanded mandate, to apply tools developed under the NCORE
project to help countries better understand the opportunities to overcome key hydro-related challenges in the
basin. While the NBI has become a regional repository and is the “go-to” source for historic hydrological data on
the Nile, the recent agreement by countries to establish a regional hydromet system (based on an NCORE-funded
process and design) expands the role of the NBI into the regional authority for real-time information. In this new
role, the NBI will provide data and related analysis with the countries, will work with countries to establish a
process for the discussion of seasonal water supply forecasts and water balance bulletins. The analysis required
for these forecasts and bulletins, as well as consultations around these bulletins, will be funded by the AF2. In
addition, the NBI will provide demand- driven advisory services to the countries, including inter-ministerial
coordination committees for water, on water balance issues.
4. The AF2 will also allow the Nile countries to enhance NBI analysis, to examine the regional effects of
climate change in the Basin. So far, due to funding constraints, it has been unable to undertake analysis for
member countries at the catchment and small-watershed levels, despite requests by countries. The NCORE
support will establish a consolidated set of downscaled climate change projections for the basin, a state of the
knowledge report to inform the work of the governments, universities and other stakeholders, a series of training
workshops to develop government capacity to apply this type of hydrological analysis in planning processes, and
a climate scientists forum.
5. While the NBI resources are well used by the general public,11
many NBI resources are not available on-
line, and when they are available, users have to go to the sites of the individual NBI centers to find the appropriate
reports. The AF2 will support the establishment of an NBI-wide repository for data and reports, and will provide
easier access to these reports through an improved web-portal. This new web-portal will serve as a one-stop-shop
for real time and historic data on the Nile, as well as access to NBI, academic, and other relevant analysis on the
Nile.
11
The NBI web portal received over 169,000 visits in 2016.
32
6. The AF2 will also allow the NBI to review and work with countries to update its financial strategy. The
previous strategy, agreed by the countries in 2011, ushered in a decision to increase country contributions and to
pursue a wider range of financing, including fee for services contract. With NBI’s evolving role and with varied
rates of success, an updated financing strategy is now needed. Among the new financing mechanisms to be
considered in the new strategy is the possibility of accessing regional IDA for NBI’s work.
7. Finally, the AF2 will support activities and forums to discuss and debate Nile issues, informed by NBI
tools and analysis, and targeted trainings and workshops. It will also support communications and outreach
efforts, to help the wider public better understand critical Nile issues; and resource mobilization efforts.
8. Component 2: Promotion of Sustainable Development and Planning in the Nile Equatorial Lakes
Region (NELSAP-CU). NELSAP-CU has made significant progress in facilitating agreement between countries
to advance regionally significant investment projects. Under the NCORE project alone, analysis and briefings by
NELSAP-CU have led to agreements between the Nile Equatorial Lakes countries to advance thirty-seven new
investments. The AF2 will allow NELSAP to help its main counterparts (Ministries of Water, Energy and/or
Environment) to increase understanding of other governmental stakeholders of the importance of this regional
approach. Specifically, NELSAP-CU will help its governments engage in a cross-sectoral regional water
investment planning process, to formulate a new Investment Program for the Nile Equatorial Lakes Region. This
is expected to include compilation of national plans, consultation with line Ministries and Ministries of Finance
on their priorities, analytical work to determine any potential water resources issues emerging from these plans,
and agreement on a new regional investment plan to address the identified regional challenges, taking into
account potential climate change scenarios. The Additional Financing will also enable NELSAP-CU to support
resource mobilization efforts for the NIP, for future investment preparation and for regional analysis and dialogue.
The Additional Financing will support work to update the NELSAP-CU financing strategy, and the exploration of
a new regional program financed by IDA.
9. The AF2 will also support capacity building and analysis at the national and local government levels. The
AF2 will support NELSAP support to build country capacity in areas they have identified as critical water
resource development issues, and could include assistance in investment planning, in dam safety capacity
building, in participatory watershed management techniques, in flood and sediment monitoring, and in cross-
border catchment management along the Kagera, Sio-Malaba-Malakisi and Mara rivers, among others. The
project will also support technical analysis and support to inter-ministerial processes involving water issues, to
bring regional analysis and resources into national decision making processes.
10. While the current project already contains financing for the on-going feasibility study, design and ESIAs
of four multi-purpose investments in the NEL region, and the AF2 is not needed for this work, the extension of
closing date will provide extra time for NELSAP-CU to complete two ESIAs which were delayed due to a need to
change consultants, as well as to ensure that there is adequate time for final consultations and review of the other
studies.
11. Component 3: Promotion of Sustainable Development and Planning in the Eastern Nile Region
(ENTRO).
12. With past NCORE support for dam safety capacity building, the creation of Dam Safety Guidelines, and
university level training modules for dam safety, the Eastern Nile countries have agreed to a preliminary Dam
Safety Management Regulatory Framework and established one regional and three national dam safety offices.
NCORE AF2 support will provide further capacity building for these newly established offices, as they increase
the human capacity needed for dam safety at the national and local levels, as well as to establish a network of dam
professionals (including operators) in the sub-basin.
33
13. ENTRO has amassed a large amount of information about the basin, analytical tools and models
(including water balance, water system simulation and optimization models), and publically available information
toolkits in dam safety, irrigation, power trade and watersheds. The volume of information and resources is
increasing, especially given new NBI mandates. The NCORE AF2 will support ENTRO in collaboration with the
other centers to establish a central database, creating search features for this database, and provide access through
the internet to these resources.
14. The seasonal and daily flood forecasting work in the Eastern Nile, undertaken by ENTRO with NCORE
financing, provides Eastern Nile countries with advanced notice of riverine flooding in critical areas. The service
is relied on by national early warning committees and relief organizations. NCORE AF2 support will allow
ENTRO to expand its services into areas in the basin that have not yet been covered by their models, which are
now identified by countries as priority, to integrate additional precipitation and stream flow forecasts into its
models, and to improve its forecast-related communications. The improved streamflow and precipitation
prediction is expected to have uses beyond flood forecasting, including in agricultural planning.
15. The NCORE-supported Eastern Nile Multisector Investment Opportunity Analyses (MSIOA), as well as
other ENTRO studies, have identified the need to better understand and explore ways of conserving or otherwise
supplementing agriculture water use and enhancing its productivity. This includes understanding the limits and
potentials of ground water conjunctive use and assessing the performance of irrigated agriculture. Thus, NCORE-
AF2 will support the establishment of a regional baseline of knowledge in groundwater in the basin, the
identification of new opportunities for water savings, and the design of an enhanced hydrological monitoring
system.
16. The AF2 will enable ENTRO to continue with capacity building activities, for governments and for
emerging young Eastern Nile leaders. Through the NCORE and earlier Eastern Nile Planning Model projects,
ENTRO created a network of four core and sixteen partnering EN universities and government offices, and
sponsored over 100 young professionals to reside at its offices, to develop models and conduct strategic analysis
on regional issues with young professionals from other Eastern Nile countries. ENTRO has created a solid
network of government and young academics across the region who have developed regional perspectives on Nile
issues, and their work has increased ENTRO’s analytical capacity. In addition to gaining experience and basin
perspective, the interns have provided ENTRO with valuable services in developing analytical tools, tool kits,
models, systems management, and daily flood forecast dissemination. Appreciating these results, countries have
expressed interest in continuing the Young Interns Program. Under the AF2, ENTRO will be supporting another
round of additional young professionals to undertake work in its offices to support ENTRO AF2 results, including
to help compile the NBI-wide data and knowledge center, and to further improve their modelling tools.
17. ENTRO has piloted livelihood-based Integrated Watershed Management in the Eastern Nile, including
support to interventions in over 80,000 hectares in Ethiopia, over 60,000 hectares in Sudan, and to Lake
Nasser/Nubia Sand Dune in Egypt. In addition, regional and national capacity in Integrated Watershed
Management planning, implementation and M&E, selected watershed management technologies (e.g. gully
rehabilitation, soil and water conservation) and exposure knowledge exchange visits have been provided. Local
communities adjacent to some project areas have started adopting some watershed management introduced
practices, thus indicating a promising trend for wider adoption. Eastern Nile countries intend to scale up these
practices but the need to identify, evaluate and select best and most viable practices for scaling up throughout the
EN catchment needs to be undertaken. Eastern Nile countries thus have requested ENTRO to undertake an
evaluation of the success of various watershed management interventions, as well as training of practitioners on
lessons learned.
34
ANNEX 3. DETAILED PROJECT COSTS
Table 3. Project Financing under TF167367 (US$ million)
Component and Disbursement
Category
Approved
Project
Amount -
TF167367 only
(as of January
1, 2017)
Amount
Proposed
through AF2
Total New Project
Amount Including
AF2
-TF167367 only
Component 1: Advancing Nile
Basin-Wide Cooperation and
Analysis (Nile-SEC). (Goods,
non-consulting services,
consultants’ services, Training,
and Operating Costs under Part
1 of the Project)
1.60 2.00 3.60
Component 2: Promotion of
Sustainable Development and
Planning in the Nile
Equatorial Lakes Region
(NELSAP-CU) (Goods, non-
consulting services, consultants’
services, Training, and
Operating Costs under Part 2 of
the Project)
11.60 3.10 14.70
Component 3: Promotion of
Sustainable Development and
Planning in the Eastern Nile
Region (ENTRO) (Goods, non-
consulting services, consultants’
services, Training, and
Operating Costs under Part 3 of
the Project)
1.25 3.40 4.65
Unallocated 0.05 0.00 0.05
TOTAL AMOUNT 14.50 8.50 23.00
35
ANNEX 4. CHANGES TO IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENTS
18. Procurement. Minor changes will be made to the procurement arrangements, to apply updated
procurement prior review thresholds and to use the Systematic Tracking of Exchanges in Procurement.
19. Procurement guidelines applicable for the additional financing. Procurement associated with the project
activities supported through the additional financing will be carried out in accordance with the World Bank’s
‘Guidelines: (i) Procurement of Goods, Works, and Non-Consulting Services under IBRD Loans and IDA Credits
& Grants by World Bank Borrowers’ dated January 2011 and revised July 2014; (ii) Selection and Employment
of Consultants under IBRD Loans and IDA Credits & Grants by World Bank Borrowers’ dated January 2011 and
revised July 2014; and (iii) Guidelines on Preventing and Combating Fraud and Corruption in Projects Financed
by IBRD Loans and IDA Credits and Grants dated 2006 and revised in 2011 (Anti-Corruption Guidelines); and
the provisions stipulated in the Legal Agreement.
20. Systematic Tracking of Exchanges in Procurement (STEP). The project will implement STEP, a World
Bank planning and tracking system, which would provide data on procurement activities, and establish
benchmarks. The details of the procurement activities, presently prepared in the procurement plan would be
transferred in the STEP system. Training on the operation of the STEP system will be provided to officers of
Nile-SEC, NELSAP-CU and ENTRO.
21. Prior Review Thresholds. The overall risk for procurement for Nile-SEC, NELSAP-CU and ENTRO
remains as “Substantial”. The specific procurement risks identified on the implementing agencies include:
in the case of ENTRO: (a) an inadequate procurement record retrieval system; (b) inadequate
monitoring of Contract Management; (c) inadequate controls for procurement processing; and
(d) weak procurement oversight bodies at the regional level; and
in the case of NELSAP-CU: (a) lack of transparency in the selection processes; (b) lack of
elaborated procedure by which Individual Consultants are invited; (c) no advertisement,
though some services are highly professional and high value; (d) contracts are negotiated, just
by one person, the Procurement Specialist, (e) no minutes of contract negotiation; (f) there is
no manual or standard for setting professional fees of ICs; and (f) poor record keeping and
weak procurement oversight by regulatory body (the board of directors).
The Procurement Risk Management System (PRAMS) will include detailed Risk Mitigation Measures to address
the identified risks. Based on this assessed level of risk and category of procurement, the thresholds for prior
review and international advertising will be determined following the new World Bank Procedure- Procurement
in IPF and Other Operational Procurement Matters (July 1, 2016), as summarized in the table below.
Table 4. Prior Review Thresholds (≥Million US$)
Type of Procurement Substantial Risk
Works (including turnkey, supply & installation of plant and equipment, and PPP) 10
Goods, information technology and non-consulting services 2
Consultants: firms 1
Consultants: Individuals 0.3
36
22. All contracts at or above the mandatory procurement prior review thresholds are subject to international
advertising and the use of the World Bank’s Special Bidding Documents (or other documents agreed with the
World Bank).
23. For post review consultancy services, the TORs shall be cleared by the World Bank.
24. Financial Management. The Project will continue to use the financial management arrangements laid
down in the initial project. The project uses the NBI’s harmonized Finance and Administration Policy Manual
which sets out detailed FM policies and procedures. Budgets will be revised taking into account the AF2. At
ENTRO, two positions are still vacant in the finance department although the project activities are being well
managed by the existing staff. The internal audit oversight at ENTRO was weak or none. Deciding to have its
own auditor, ENTRO has finalized the recruitment of an internal auditor with experience in external audit from
the Office of Federal Auditor General. The internal auditor will include the project in the annual audit plan and
conduct audits on the project implementation transactions. Capacity buildings measures for report preparation will
be planned and conducted by the World Bank. At the Secretariat, upgrades to the SUN Accounting System
software are expected, to provide additional security for the financial management systems.
25. The project will continue to prepare and submit quarterly unaudited Interim Financial reports (IFRs)
within 45 days of end of the quarter. The project will be subject to annual audits and the audit report including the
management letter will be submitted to the World Bank within six months of the end of each fiscal year. The audit
report will be disclosed in accordance with the World Bank’s disclosure policy. It is important to note that there
are no outstanding audits or IFRs from the implementing agencies.
26. Through the supervision of this project, regular Financial Management Reviews have been conducted,
none of which have uncovered any areas of malfeasance. Based on the assessment conducted, the overall
financial management residual risk rating for the project is moderate and the recent financial management
implementation support and supervision rating was Moderately Satisfactory. It is the conclusion of the World
Bank’s FM assessment that the FM arrangements meet the World Bank’s requirements as per OP/BP 10.00. The
arrangements are adequate to provide, with reasonable assurance, accurate and timely information on the status of
the project as required by the World Bank.