World Economic History:
IntroductionOctober 1, 2007
Growth, historically
Introduction
The Malthusian trap
The Industrial Revolution
The Great Divergence
Life expectancy (years) - today & back then
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
DivergingGDP per capita
1990 International Geary-Khamis dollars
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1 1000 1500 1600 1700 1820 1900 1950 2000
Western EuropeWestern OffshootsAsia AfricaWorldLatin America
The Malthusian economy
The Malthusian trap
Who was Malthus?
The model
The trap
The 3 assumptions Each society has a birth rate (B) that
increases with material living standards The death rate (D) declines as living
standards increase Material living standards decline as
population increases
PopulationIncome per capita
B-D
Surviving children per woman, pre-modern
1.90
1.95
2.00
2.05
2.10
Norway SouthernItaly
France England NorthernItaly
Iceland
Life expectancy and death rates
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Death rate (per thousand)
Lif
e ex
pec
tanc
y (y
ears
)
Long-run equilibrium in the Malthusian economy
Revealed technological advance
Virtues and Vices in the Malthusian model
Living standards
Wages and Prices – some examples
Real Wages, England 1250-1850
The plague
Stagnant living standards….
GDP per capita: England vs. the other countries
Evidence for other countries in pre-modern times
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Ancie
nt Bab
ylonia
Classic
al Athe
ns
Roman
Egy
pt
Engla
nd*
Amste
rdam
*
Paris
*
China*
*
Japa
n*
Day
wag
e in
pou
nds of
whe
at (*) 1780-1800 (**) 1750-1849
Calories intake per capita
0500
10001500200025003000350040004500 (*) 1878-96 (**) 1812 (***)1980s (****)1970s
Stature and living standards
62
63
64
65
66
67
68 (*) 1710-59 (**)1830s (***)1819-39 (****)1800-29 (*****) 1883-92
Hours worked
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
England1720-39
England1780-99
Tatuyo Ache Yanomano