ASIA / PACIFIC
N.AMERICA
L.AMERICA
AFRICA
M.EAST
EUROPE
YGR-5020
Worldwide Market Forecast for
Commercial Air Transport2001-2020
June 2001
Marketing
Japan Aircraft Development Corporation
Index
Foreword ............................................................... 3
1. Summary ............................................................... 4
2. State of the Airline Industry ..................................... 7
3. Traffic Forecast ....................................................... 12
3.1 The Relationship among Passenger Traffic,
Economy and Yield ................................................. 12
3.2 Economic Forecast ................................................ 13
3.3 Trend of Yield ........................................................ 15
3.4 Passenger Traffic .................................................... 16
4. Available Seat Kilometer (ASK) .............................. 18
4.1 Load Factor ............................................................ 18
4.2 ASK Forecast by Regions ....................................... 19
4.3 ASK Share by Market Segment .............................. 20
4.4 ASK Forecast by Region and Range........................ 22
5. Fleet and Delivery Forecast .................................... 23
5.1 Improvement of Airplane Utilization ........................ 23
5.2 Trend of Airplane Size ............................................ 24
5.3 Retirement of Existing Fleet ................................... 27
5.4 Jet Airplane Backlog ............................................... 29
5.5 Current and Future Airplane Models ....................... 30
5.6 Assumption of Turboprop and Jet Share i
in Small Airplane Market ..........................................31
5.7 Jet Fleet and Deliveries Forecast ........................... 32
5.8 Turboprop Fleet and Deliveries Forecast ............... 39
6. Engine Market Forecast ......................................... 44
6.1 Engine Category and Equipped Airplanes .............. 44
6.2 Engine Deliveries Forecast ..................................... 45
7. Methodology ........................................................... 46
2
Foreword
The forecast for world air traffic and airplane demand for the next 20 years from
year 2001 are described in this document worked by the Market group of Japan
Aircraft Development Corporation.
This forecast covers jet and turboprop commercial transport larger than 15 seats
excluding freighter operated by the world airlines domiciled in the 10
geographical regions except for CIS market, which are Africa, Asia(exclude
Japan and China), China, East Europe, Japan, Latin America, Middle East,
North America, Oceania and West Europe.
Data source to work this forecast are International Civil Aviation
Organization(ICAO), Official Airline Guide(OAG), AirClaim CASE Database,
Japan Center for Economic Research and OECD Economic Outlook.
3
1. Summary
• As the major drivers for traffic growth, world economy will grow at 3.2% per
year, and yield in real term will decline at 1.3% per year for the next 20 years.
• World airlines experienced traffic growth of average 5.8% per year for the past 20
years. During the next 20 years, they will achieve an average of 4.6% growth per
year, and the traffic volume in 2020 will reach 2.5 times of the present level.
North American airlines, which dominates the largest market share of 38% in
2000, will grow slowly at 3.6% per year, therefore the market share will decrease
to 30% in 2020.
European airlines shared 30% in world market will grow at 4.4% per year, and
they will maintain the existing share in 2020.
By the Economic revovery of Asian countries, Asia/Pacific airlines will realize
6.1% growth per year and form one of the largest market with North American
airlines and European airlines.
4
N.AMERICA
EUROPE
ASIA / PACIFIC
OTHERS
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
2456
2294
2308
819
1221
965
709
293
FORECASTACTUAL
3188
7876
YEAR 2000
YEAR 2020
YEAR1980
1038
AIR TRAFFIC FORECAST
RPK(BILLIONS)
AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE(%)1981-2000 2001-2020
N.AMERICA 4.9 3.6EUROPE 6.1 4.4ASIA / PACIFIC 7.9 6.1OTHERS 4.5 5.3TOTAL WORLD 5.8 4.6
TOTAL WORLD
2000
1%
3%
4%
5%
3%
2%5%
9%
30%W.EUROPE W.EUROPE
E.EUROPE
E.EUROPE
ASIA
ASIA
OCEANIA
OCEANIA
CHINA CHINA
JAPAN
JAPANM.EAST
M.EASTAFRICA
2%AFRICA
L.AMERICA
L.AMERICA
30%
EUROPE
ASIA / PACIFIC
22%
OTHERS9%
2020
1%
4%
7%
5%
3%
6%
14%
28%
ASIA / PACIFIC
29%
OTHERS10%
N.AMERICA
38%
N.AMERICA
30%
29%
EUROPE
• The traffic capacity in terms of ASK will grow at an average of 4.4% per year
with load factor improvement from 70% to 74% for the next 20 years and reach
2.3 times of the present capacity.
• For the jet airplane market, 26,200 unit will be required to accommodate the
traffic capacity in 2020, which is double of present fleet. On the other hand, only
3,900 unit in 2020 compared with 4,600 unit in 2000, will be operated in the
turboprop market. This dramatic fleet decrease will caused by the shift to regional
jet market.
• Number of retirement for jet and turboprop airplanes between 2001 and 2020 are
estimated 6,900 units and 3,100 units respectively, these are 55% of existing jet
fleet and 67% of existing turboprop fleet.
5
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
WORLD JET FLEET FORECAST
20-59 SEATER
60-99 SEATER
100-119 SEATER
OVER 400 SEATER
120-169 SEATER
170-229 SEATER
230-309 SEATER
310-399 SEATER
UNITS
ACTUAL FORECAST26152
12546
18329
5563
7689
RETAINED
NEW DELIVERY
328JET/428JET,ERJ135/145,CRJ200
CRJ700/900,BRJ-X,YSX
717,737-600A318
728JET/928JET,ERJ170/190,Avro RJ
737-700/800/900A319/A320
757
A310767
A340777
747XA3XX
727-200,737-300/400A320,MD80/MD90
DC8,707
747DC10,MD11L1011
767
727-100,737-100/200/500,TRIDENT,DC9S
BAC111,F28/F70/F100,DC9
A321
A300
A330
747
A310A300
2282
3167
2165
5910
1980 1892
1050
2079
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
20-59SEATER
60-99SEATER
100-119SEATER
120-169SEATER
170-229SEATER
230-309SEATER
310-399SEATER
OVER 400SEATER
JET AIRCRAFT SALES FORECAST BY SIZE(2001 - 2020)UNITS 2000 Price
($ Billions)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
35.9
78.568.6
236.4
102.7
175.3
279.6
196.3
TOTAL20,525 UNITS$1173 Billions
AIRCRAFT SIZE
NARROWBODY WIDEBODY
• The market for the new commercial jets over the next 20 years is 20,500 units
including backlog of 4,500 units and $1,173 billions in dollar value, and the
market for the turboprop for the same period is 2,300 units and $17 billions.
• The proportion of widebody airplane will represent 32% in unit and 55% in dollar
value of the total jet market.
• North American airlines will maintain the largest market share in the world. They
will get 6,500 deliveries which are 32% of total new jets, and 5,600 of them are
narrow-body airplanes. They represent 33% of the total new narrow-body jets.
Asia/Pacific airlines will hold the largest market of the new wide-body airplanes.
They will need 2,200 units, which are 44% of the total wide-bodies.
• Engine deliveries for the next 20 years will be 52,770 units for jet and 5,360 units
for turboprop. They will be $278 billions and $4 billions in dollar value
respectively.
The largest engine market category will be 12,000 - 35,000 lb class which are
equipped by A320 and B737 series, and they represent 43% of total engine
market in unit, but 65,000 - 100,000 lb class which are equipped by A330/A380
and B777/B747X will be the largest one of 38% in dollar value.
6
5364
13365
22663
8014 8729
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
T/P <12 12-35 35-65 65-100 (1000 LB)
A330A380B777B747X
A300/A310/A340B747/B757/B767
A318/A319/A320A321/A340B757/B767/B737
328JET/528JET728JET/928JETAvro RJCRJ-200/700/900EMB135/145/170/190
1900, MetroATR42/ 72,CN235, DHC- 8Do228/ 328EMB-120
ENGINE DELIVERY FORECAST(2001 - 2020)
NO. OF ENGINE
NUMBER OF ENGINE
NO.OF ENGINE
SALES VALUE($ B)
TURBOPROP 5,364 4JET 52,771 278
TOTAL 58,135 282
0
25
4
27
91
64
96
50
75
100
125
SALES VALUE
SALES VALUE(2000 US $ B)
2. State of the Airline Industry
The world airline traffic figures for 1999, point to 6% increase in RPK (Revenue
Passenger Kilometers), by steadily economic growth of United States and Euope,
and an economic recovery in Asia. The operating revenue was increased to $306
billions, but the operating profit was decreased to $12.6 billions because of lower
yield by competition, increased fuel price and cost, and over capacity.
7
WORLD AIR TRAFFIC
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999
CALENDAR YEAR
Source : ICAO Scheduled + Non-ScheduledRPK (Billions)
1999Total World
N.AMERICA
EUROPE
ASIA / PACIFIC
OTHERS
2,982
279
664
906
1,133
5974
211
651
307
1975-1979 1980-1984 1985-1989 1990-1994 1995-1999N.AMERICA 9.0% 2.8% 7.5% 2.7% 5.0%EUROPE 7.3% 1.5% 8.1% 7.3% 5.9%ASIA / PACIFIC 14.0% 6.9% 8.4% 9.5% 7.3%OTHERS 14.1% 4.9% 4.2% 5.5% 3.5%
WORLD TOTAL 9.6% 3.3% 7.4% 5.6% 5.6%
Ave. Annual Growth Rate (%)
1974Total World
WORLD AIRLINES OPERATING PROFIT
4.6
7.2
10.2
7.6
-1.5-0.5
-2.0
2.3
8.4
14.0
12.3
16.515.9
12.6
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
OPERATING PROFIT(US$ BILLIONS)
CALENDAR YEAR
Source : ICAO
The recent healthy growth of world airlines were produced by mainly continued
economic growth in United Stage and Europe, despite an Asian recession.
However, it is also depends on the airline's efforts for cost reduction and increase
profitability by the expansion of their network through the Global Alliance and
feeder operation by affiliated airlines.
There are five major alliance groups which are Star, Oneworld, Skyteam,
KLM/Northwest, and Qualiflyer. They dominate 58% of the world airlines
passengers and 51% of the operating profit. The purposes of the alliance are to
provide quality service to spread destination for passengers by seamless connection
through the overall network and common FFP, and to reduce the cost by joint use
of ground facilities and the scale merit. It is very hard, however, to allocate
revenue or profit among the airlines in the alliance. But these trend included code
sharing will progress gradually to achieve the alliance benefit in future.
8
ALLIANCEREGIONS (Established)NORTH AMERICA UNITED AMERICAN DELTA NORTHWEST
AIR CANADA
LATIN AMERICA VARIG LANCHILE AEROMEXICOMEXICANA
EUROPE LUFTHANSA BRITISH AW AIR FRANCE KLM SWISSAIRSAS IBERIA CSA (2001.3) SABENAAUSTRIAN FINNAIR THY - TURKISHBRITISH MIDLAND AER LINGUS AOM
TAPAIR EUROPELOT
CROSSAIRVOLAREAIR LITTORALPORTUGALIALTU
M.EAST / AFRICA EL ALSOUTH AFRICAN
ASIA / PACIFIC SINGAPORE QANTAS KOREAN AIRANA CATHAY CHINA EASETERNTHAI AIRWAYS (2000.10)AIR NEW ZEALAND THAI AIRWAYS**AIR CHINA*(2000.10)
1999 TOTALRPK(B) (World Share) 589 (21%) 465 (16%) 301 (11%) 177 (6%) 101 (4%)Passenger(B) (W.Share) 293 (19%) 199 (13%) 175 (11%) 72 (5%) 52 (3%)Revenue ($Billions) 70 50 26 17 16
* : Code-sharing ** : FuturePlan
WORLD AIRLINES GLOBAL ALLIANCE
QUALIFLYERSKYTEAM(1999.9)
KLM/NORTHWEST(1989)
STAR ALLIANCE(1997.5) (1998.3)
ONEWORLD(1998.9)
9
US MAJORS AND AFFILIATED REGIONAL AIRLINES
REGION AND AFFILIATED REGIONAL AIRLINES
US MAJORS Western West North Central South Central East North Central Southeast North EastWashington, Oregon,California, Nevada,Arizona
Idaho, Montana,Wioming, Yutah,Colorado, N.Dakota,S.Dakota, Nebraska,Kansas
New MexicoOklahomaTexasArknsasLousiana
Minnesota, Iowa,Misouri, Wisconsin,Michigan, Indiana, Ohio
Mississippi, Arabama,Tennessee, Kentucky,West Verginia, Virginia,N.Carolina, S.Carolina,Geogia, Florida
Maine, New Hampshire,Vermont, Massachusetts,Rhode Island, Conneticut,New York, New Jersey,Delaware, Maryland,Pennslvania,Washington D.C.
Alaska Airlines Horizon Air(Seattle) (Seattle)America West Mesa Big Sky Chautauqua
(Phoenix) (Montana) (Columbus)American American Eagle Chautauqua Executive Busines Express(Dallas/Ft.Worth) (Dallas/Ft.Worth) (St.Louis) (San Juan) (Boston)
Trans States(St.Louis)
Continental Skywest Continental Express Gulfstream Int'l Continental Express(Houston) (Houston) (Newark) (Cleveland)(Newark) Commutair
(New York LGA)Delta Skywest ASA Comair ACJet(Atlanta) (Salt Lake City) (Dallas/Ft.Worth) (Cincinnati) (New York LGA)
ASA(Atlanta)
Northwest Mesaba Express I(Minneapolis/St.Paul) (Detroit) (Menphis)
(Minneapolis/St.Paul)Express 1(Detroit)
TWA Chautauqua(St.Louis) (St.Louis)
Trans States(St.Louis)Corporate(St.Louis)
United Air Wisconsin(Chicago) (Denver) (Chicago)(Denver)(San Francisco) (Los Angeles)(Los Angeles) Great Lakes(Washington) Skywest (Denver)US Airways Air Midwest Mesa Allegheny, Colgan AW
(Charlotte) (Boston)Piedmont Chautauqua
Potomac Air(Washington National)
EEUURROOPPEEAANN MMAAJJOORRSS AANNDD AAFFFFIILLIIAATTEEDD RREEGGIIOONNAALL AAIIRRLLIINNEESS
EEUURROOPPEEAANN CCOOUUNNTTRRYY AANNDD AAFFFFIILLIIAATTEEDD RREEGGIIOONNAALL AAIIRRLLIINNEESS * : SubsidiaryMMAAJJOORRSS Spain Italy UK France Germany Netherland Swistzerland Austria Sweden Norway
British AW Brymon Deutche BA*(London) CityFlyer*
Go*LoganairMaersk Air
Air France British European City Jet*(London City) Regional AL*
Brit'Air*Lufthansa Air Dolomitti Augsburg AW Lauda*(Frankfurt) LH Cityline* (Wien)
(Cologne)LH Cargo*Euro Berlin*Eurowings(Dortmunt)
KLM KLM UK* Eurowings KLM Cityhopper* Braathens(Amsterdam) (London) (Dortmunt) (Amsterdam) (2003.10迄)
Buzz* KLM Excel KLM ALPSMartinair*Transavia*
Alitalia Avianoba*(Rome) Air Europe*
Alitalia Team*Alitalia Express*
Iberia Aviaco*(Madrid) Binter Mediterraneo*
Swissair Air Littoral Crossair*(Zurich) (Basel)
AOL Balair*
Air Liberte
SAS AL of Britain* SAS Commuter*(Stockholm)
Merger of US Majors is one of the major events of airline industry in 2000.
American's acquisition of TWA was just approved in this March, they become the
largest airline (passenger share : 23%) over United. Following this acquisition,
United/US Airways Merger is proposed, but it is not clear due to many oposit
opinions that this merger lead to less quality service by fewer selections for
consumers. But, the merger would be approved, oligopoly would be progressed,
and their affiriated airlines would be restructured.
10
January - September, 2000
RPK Employee FleetOperatingRevenue Net Profit
(Millions) (Units) ($1000) ($1000)143.3 91,500 717 14,844 76618% 19% 18% 21% 31%33.7 21,200 190 2,736 -1154% 4% 5% 4% -5%
176.9 112,700 907 17,580 65123% 23% 23% 25% 26%
154.3 91,700 607 14,559 12120% 19% 16% 21% 5%56.1 41,600 398 6,912 -1687% 8% 10% 10% -7%
210.4 133,300 1,005 21,471 -4727% 27% 26% 31% -2%
<Ref.>
78.6 43,900 367 7,470 29810% 9% 9% 11% 12%
133.0 69,900 611 12,724 82617% 14% 16% 18% 33%97.5 51,102 427 8,675 32512% 10% 11% 12% 13%
2,499
US Major Airline
494,008
US Majors Traffic and Finance
781.7
American / TWA
United / US Airways
TWA
American
US Airways
3,890 69,767Total US Major
United
Continental
Delta
Northwest
These world airlines upward trend is affecting airplanes order in recent years.
World major airplanes (Airbus and Boeing jets) were ordered over 1000 jets a year
since 1996. In 1999, it was decreased to 870 jets, but in 2000, it was increased to
1131 jets again.
Meanwhile the regional jets were increased in recent years. The regional jet
operations are spreading over Europe and North America by replacing turboprop
fleet and developing long-thin routes as a new market. In 2000, they got order of
840 units, it was 43% of total unit of order.
11
JET AIRPLANE ORDERS AND DELIVERIES IN 2000
Order Delivery Backlog Order Delivery Backlog
AIRBUS 520 311 1626 BAe 15 14 11A300 2 8 25 Avro RJ85 5 7 5A310 0 0 5 Avro RJ100 8 7 4A318 41 0 161 Avro RJX85 2 0 2A319 120 112 383A320 158 101 535 BOMBARDIER 238 99 487A321 69 28 206 CRJ-100/200 153 99 303A330 110 43 192 CRJ-700 75 0 174A340 20 19 119 CRJ-900 10 0 10
BOEING 611 489 1612 FAIRCHILD DORNIER 106 34 221
717 21 32 107 328JET 48 34 75737 391 281 1016 728JET 54 0 142747 27 25 77 928JET 4 0 4757 43 45 79767 12 44 84 EMBRAER 481 159 597777 117 55 247 ERJ-135 65 46 84MD-11 0 4 2 ERJ-140 133 0 133MD-80 0 0 0 ERJ-145 233 113 260MD-90 0 3 0 ERJ-170 50 0 90
ERJ-190 0 0 30
合 計 1971 1106 4554
SHARE OF ORDERS
BAe1%
AIRBUS26%
EMBRAER24%
F/DORNIER5%
BOMBARDIER12%
BOEING32%
TOTAL 1,971 UNITS
SHARE OF DELIVERIES
BAe1%
F/DORNIER3%
EMBRAER14%
BOMBARDIER9%
BOEING45%
AIRBUS28%
TOTAL 1,106 UNITS
3. Traffic Forecast
3. 1 The Relationship among Passenger Traffic, Economy and Yield
As air traffic is a part of economic activities, if the economy is active , then air
traffic is active also. And it is known that the air fare effects to the traffic also.
Therefore, the economic (GDP) growth and the decline of air fare (Yield) will
result in the passenger traffic (RPK) growth.
The relationship among RPK, GDP and Yield in the past are analyzed in each region, and
Regional RPK are forecasted by using their relationship, GDP forecast and Yield forecast.
Here, Regional RPK show RPK for airlines domiciled in the geographical region.
12
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
INDEX (1980=1)
TRAFFIC (RPK)
GDP
YIELD
TRAFFIC vs. GDP, YIELD
Gulf War
CALENDAR YEAR
3. 2 Economic Forecast
World economy will grow at 3.2% per year over the next 20 years, compared with
2.9% in the past 20 years.
North America and Western Europe will keep moderate growth at the rate of 2.3%
per year in the future as same as the past.
Economic recession in Japan is likely to continue for a couple more years, but in
long term, Japan will grow at 2.2% per year as almost same as North America and
Western Europe.
China shows lower growth rate than the past, but will keep the highest growth of
7.1% in the world. Other Asia (excluding China and Japan) also sustain high
growth rate of 5.9% per year because of recovery
Latin America, East Europe,Middle East and Africa will show higher growth rates
than the past because of shift to liberalism (East Europe) and progress by
stabilization of political situation (Latin America, Middle East and Africa).
13
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
N.AMERICA
REAL GDP FORECAST
CALENDAR YEAR
W.EUROPE
GDP(1990 US$ Billions)
ASIA
AFRICA
L.AMERICA
M.EAST
OCEANIA
FORECASTACTUAL
JAPAN
CHINA
E.EUROPE
14
2.93.1
2.3 2.2
0.3
1.7
2.4
3.3
2.7
8.9
6.0
3.2
2.3
4.7
2.3
3.0 2.9
4.5
2.62.2
7.1
5.9
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
WORLD N.AMERICA L.AMERICA W.EUROPE E.EUROPE AFRICA M.EAST OCEANIA JAPAN CHINA ASIA
1981-2000 2001-2020
REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTAve.Annual
Growth Rate(%)
3. 3 Trend of Yield
Airline's yield is deeply related with operating cost which mainly consist with fuel
cost, crew expense, maintenance cost and ownership cost.
Main factors for the reduction in fare in the past 20 years, were a reduction of
operating cost by using the new developped fuel efficient airplanes with
technology advancement and airlines efforts on rationalization. Though these
factor will be main drives of recuction in fare in future, but the change will be not
so much as compared with the past.
Thus world average yield was declined at 4.0% per year since 1980, it will
continue to decline but its rate, 1.3% per year for the next 20 years, is significantly
lower than the past trend.
As the yield for North American airlines is lower than the world average, it will
decline at 1.0% per year for the next 20 years. Yield for Western Europe airlines,
which is higher level now, will decline at 1.5% per year in the future.
15
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
YIELD FORECAST1999 Cent/RPK
CALENDAR YEAR
WORLD
N.AMERICA
W.EUROPE
1981-2000 2001-2020N.AMERICA -2.4% -1.0%W.EUROPE -4.2% -1.5%WORLD -4.9% -1.3%
AVE.ANNUAL GROWTH RATE
FORECASTACTUAL
3. 4 Passenger Traffic
Since 1981, average growth of the world air passenger traffic was 5.8% per year.
For the next 20 years, it will be 4.6% per year and traffic volume will reach 2.5
times as much as 2000 traffic, that said, approximately 7.9 trillion RPK in 2020.
This forecast is based upon the historical progression of technology for the
subsonic transports and their operations but not upon the possible passenger
stimulation by advent of the commercial tilt-rotor plane in the short range market
or the supersonic transport in the long range market.
The traffic growth in North American airlines will be lower than the world
average and their share in the world air traffic will decrease from 38% to 30%.
European airlines will perform nearly the world average growth and maintain their
share of 30%.
16
N.AMERICA
EUROPE
ASIA / PACIFIC
OTHERS
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
2456
2294
2308
819
1221
965
709
293
FORECASTACTUAL
3188
7876
YEAR 2000
YEAR 2020
YEAR1980
1038
AIR TRAFFIC FORECAST
RPK(BILLIONS)
AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE(%)1981-2000 2001-2020
N.AMERICA 4.9 3.6EUROPE 6.1 4.4ASIA / PACIFIC 7.9 6.1OTHERS 4.5 5.3TOTAL WORLD 5.8 4.6
TOTAL WORLD
2000
1%
3%
4%
5%
3%
2%5%
9%
30%W.EUROPE W.EUROPE
E.EUROPE
E.EUROPE
ASIA
ASIA
OCEANIA
OCEANIA
CHINA CHINA
JAPAN
JAPANM.EAST
M.EASTAFRICA
2%AFRICA
L.AMERICA
L.AMERICA
30%
EUROPE
ASIA / PACIFIC
22%
OTHERS9%
2020
1%
4%
7%
5%
3%
6%
14%
28%
ASIA / PACIFIC
29%
OTHERS10%
N.AMERICA
38%
N.AMERICA
30%
29%
EUROPE
Asia/Pacific airlines, especially Asia which is represented China and
NIES/ASEAN, were maintained their traffic growth at over 10% per year since
1980. For the next 20 years, their traffic will grow at 6.1% per year, and their share
will increase from 22% to 29%.
Japanese airlines will become a matured market, and the traffic will grow at 3.9%
per year, that is lower growth rate than the past.
African airlines traffic will not grow so much in spite of economy growth. Middle
East airlines traffic will maintain their growth as the past due to continuous
political unrest. Latin America will grow their traffic than the past because of
stabilization of the politic situation and the economy. East European airlines will
not grow their traffic so much despite the progress of shift to liberalism.
17
5.8
4.94.4
6.3
2.0
3.4
5.4
6.2 6.1
7.6
4.6
3.6
5.7
4.44.1 3.9
5.4 5.2
3.9
7.3
20.1
6.7
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
1981-2000 2001-2020
WORLD TRAFFIC GROWTH FORECASTRPK GROWTH/YEAR (%)
WORLD N.AMERICA L.AMERICA W.EUROPE E.EUROPE AFRICA M.EAST OCEANIA JAPAN CHINA ASIA
4. Available Seat kilometer
The required ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) which carries forecasted RPK are
calculated by following formula.
ASK = RPK / Load Factor
4.1 Load Factor
Average load factor in worldwide airlines increased from 62% in 1980 to 70% in
2000.
It will go up to 74% in 2020, because airlines will strive to improve their load
factor by using revenue managing system, internet booking system, and offering
the same good quality service through alliance.
Considering the change of timely demand in a day and seasonable demand in a
year, average load factor for a year will be 70 to 75%. Higher load factor over 80%
spills passengers in crowded conditions, and lower load factor results poor
revenues .
18
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
N.AMERICA
W.EUROPE
JAPAN
ASIA
WORLD
LOAD FACTOR FORECAST BY REGION%
ACTUAL FORECAST
4. 2 ASK Forecast by Regions
Since 1981, ASK growth rate for the worldwide airlines was 5.0%, slightly lower
than RPK growth. For the next 20 years, ASK will grow at 4.4% per year with load
factor improvement.
Growth rate for North American airlines will be 3.3% per year much less than the
world average growth, and will reduce their share in future. European airlines keep
modest growth of 4.2% per year. Asia/Pacific airlines will continue high growth
rate of 5.7%, but it is less than the past one.
19
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
AVE.ANNUAL GROWTH RATE (%)
1981-2000 2001-2020
N.AMERICA 4.0 3.3
EUROPE 5.3 4.2
ASIA / PACIFIC 7.7 5.7
OTHERS 4.1 4.8
TOTAL WORLD 5.0 4.4
N.AMERICA
EUROPE
ASIA / PACIFIC
OTHERS
1715
1335
1031
452
4534
WORLD
2000
3281
3063
3134
1161
10640
1694
ASK FORECAST BY REGIONASK (BILLIONS)
CALENDAR YEAR
FORECASTACTUAL
2020
1980
4. 3 ASK Share by Market Segment
Air traffic grows at different growth rate in each region, and also in each route
distance category. It is need the ASK share by route distance to calculate ASK
forecast divided into regions and distance categories.
According to the present timetable of regional airplanes, turboprops are mainly
operated under 1,000km routes, regional jets are operated under 2,000km, and
narrowbody jets excluding regional jets are operated under 4500km. Thus, the
market is divided into following 4 categories by the route distance.
Long-range : over 4,500km
Middle-range : 2,001 to 4,500km
Short-range : 1,001 to 2,000km
Regional : under 1,000km
20
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 13000 14000
Widebody JetNarrowbody Jet (excl.RJ)Regional JetTurboprop/Piston/Heli
Non-stop Route Range - G.C. (km)
ASK DISTRIBUTION BY RANGEYearly ASK (MILLIONS)
Long RangeMediumShortRegional
Source : OAG MAX Database, Sep.,2000
TY
O-P
AR
TY
O-L
ON
TY
O-N
YC
TY
O-C
HI
LON
-SIN
HK
G-S
FO
LAX
-SY
D
NY
C-J
NB
AT
L-JN
B
TY
O-L
AX
TY
O-S
EA
TY
O-S
FO
CH
I-H
NL
MIA
-PA
R
NY
K-P
AR
LON
-NY
C
LON
-RO
MC
HI-
NY
C
TY
O-S
PK
HK
G-T
PE
NY
C-L
AX
HN
L-LA
X
CH
I-LA
XT
YO
-HK
G
4500
km
2000
km
1000
km
DF
W-L
AX
For the last 20 years, long-range market is expanding its share compared with other
market, and medium-range and regional market shares are shrinking
One of the reasons is long-range market was expanded because of the
improvement of airplanes range capability and popularization of overseas travel.
In future, the long-range market will be matured as same as the short-range's, and
the regional market will be active again, then ASK share in each market will stay
constant level
21
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
ASK SHARE BY ROUTE DISTANCEASK SHARE (%)
24.1
21.0
26.0
29.0
19.5
20.3
21.9
38.2
17.1%
20.7%
21.2%
40.9%
Under1000km
1001-2000km
2001-4500km
Over 4501km
4. 3 ASK Forecast by Region and Range
Dividing the Regional ASK into these route distance categories, domestic market
in North American airlines is shown under 4,500km range, will be projected about
3/4 of ASK, in European and Asia/Pacific airlines, the half of ASK will be
occupied by the long-range market. In Others airlines, long-range market share will
be 30% of ASK in 2020.
22
316 454271
532206
586
252
428
820
229
616 514
235
552
1139
367 471
259
419
869
699
1548
489
1558
416
9891
169
168
110
136
153
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020
N.AMERICA EUROPE ASIA / PACIFIC OTHERS
Under 1000km
1001-2000km
2001-4500km
Over 4501km
1715
3281
1335
3063
1031
3129
452
1161
ASK (BILLIONS)
ASK FORECAST BY REGION AND RANGE
2000 4,533 BILLION ASK2020 10,635 BILLION ASK
5. Fleet and Delivery Forecast
5.1 Improvement of Airplane Utilization
Airplane utilization in terms of yearly airplane flight distance has gradually
increased with some fluctuation. This fluctuation was resulted from imbalance
between supply and demand of airplanes to meet with traffic volume. This trend of
increase will continue at 0.3% per year for the next 20 years, and yearly jet
airplane flight distance will reach 1.841 million km in 2020. For turboprop
airplane, an improvement of the utilization is assumed as same as jet.
23
JET AIRPLANE UTILIZATION
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
CALENDAR YEAR
Airplane Kmper Airplane per Year(Mil. Km)
Source : ICAO Scheduled Data
ACTUAL FORECAST
Ave. Growth Rate0.3% p.a.
2001-2020Ave. Growth Rate
0.3%
1.841
1.724
5. 2 Trend of Airplane Size
When the passengers are increased, airline increase the frequency and/or airplane
size to expand the capacity (ASK). Trends of airplane size growth vs. ASK growth
in each region and range for the past are analyzed, and apply them to the forecast.
Average seats per ASK in world major markets between 1992 and 2000 are
trending to decrease except in Intra-Europe market. In Pacific market and Europe -
Asia/Pacific market wchich were mainly operated by the largest B747, the average
seats are large, but in Atlantic Market, many widebody twin jets such as B767 and
A310 were operated already in 1992, the average seat is small.
In North American airlines, average seat per ASK for the long-range market that is
mainly including atlantic routes, declined during 1988 to1992 due to appearance of
long range medium size airplanes such as B767/A310, and after that average seat
increased slowly by introducing big twin jets such as B777. Average seats per
ASK for medium-range and short-range which are almost US domestic routes,
were unchanged or declined slightly. For regional market, it declined for recent
years due to expansion of new regional jets.
24
127117
206
288
372380
125 124
203
277
349337
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
INTRA N.AMERICA
INTRAEUROPE
INTRAASIA / PACIFIC
NOTRH ATLANTIC
PACIFIC EUROPE-ASIA / PACIFIC
1992 2000
TREND OF AVERAGE SEAT BY WORLD MAJOR MARKETAVE. SEAT
In West European airlines, average seat per ASK for long-range market declined in
1992, then increased recently as same as North American airlines. But airplane size
for medium-range market for Middle East and North Africa routes, still declined,
meanwhile, it is unchanged for short-range and slightly declined for regional
market
25
TREND OF AVERAGE SEAT - W.EUROPE
10
100
1000
10000 100000 1000000 10000000
AVERAGE SEAT
ASK (MILLIONS)
LR
MRSR
RG
'20 (FORECAST)'00
'74 '92
TREND OF AVERAGE SEAT - N.AMERICA
10
100
1000
10000 100000 1000000 10000000
AVERAGE SEAT
ASK (BILLIONS)
LR
MR
SR
RG
'20 (FORECAST)'00
'74 '92
In Asian airlines, airplane size for long-range market, which includes Pacific and
European routes, is already increased to nearly 400 seats and constant recently. It
means that the large airplanes such as 747 are mainly operated, because the routes
are concentrated in the major cities of each country compared with North America
and West Europe. The same trends are seen in medium/short-range and regional
market.
Trend of average seat per ASK during 1992 to 2000 is obtained by following
formula in each region and range category, and we assume that the trends will
continue in future.
Here, ß shows between -0.2 to 0.2 in the trend, this means up to 20% of ASK
growth depend upon the aircraft size growth.
26
Avrage seat in 2000 ASK in 2000 ß
Averge seat in 1992 ASK in 1992= ( )
TREND OF AVERAGE SEAT - ASIA / PACIFIC
10
100
1000
1000 10000 100000 1000000
AVERAGE SEAT
ASK (BILLIONS)
LR
MR
SR RG
'20 (FORECAST)'00
'74'92
5. 3 Retirement of Existing Fleet
The average life of passenger jet is trending 20 to 29 years for past years, that
includes a passenger jet retirement for freighter conversion. 93% of current fleet
are manufactured after 1960, therefore, average life of a passenger jet airplane is
assumed 28 years. Hushkitted airplane is extended its life more 5 to 10 years
according to the trend. However, hushkitted airplanes will retire in the next 20
years of the forecast, it will effect to yearly demand but total demand.
Model curve for a passenger jet retirement is based on a standard diviation curve.
27
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
1949-1959 manufactured 10061960-1969 manufactured 10001970-1979 manufactured 21181980-1989 manufactured 39141990-1999 manufactured 6820FREIGHTER20-YEAR MODEL CURVE28-YEAR MODEL CURVE34-YEAR MODEL CURVE
20
27
AVERAGE34 YEARS
TREND OF JET AIRPLANE RETIREMENTSURVIVAL RATE
AGE OF AIRPLANE
1999 Year-end Fleet
29
For the next 20 years, 6,900 jets (55%) will retire, so that 5,600 units of existing
12,500 units will remain in 2020. About 80% of existing 100 - 119 seat jets such as
old B737-200 and DC-9-30 will disappear for the period. Massive retiement of
2,700 units will be forecasted for 120 - 169 seat jets.
Over 170 seat jets and 20 - 59 seat regional jets which are rather young, will not
retire so much.
28
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
CALENDAR YEAR
20-59席
60-99席
100-119席
120-169席
170-229席
230-309席
310-399席
400-499席
JET AIRCRAFT RETIREMENT FORECAST BY SIZEUNITS
2000 end 2020 end '01-'20Retirement400-499 747 283 464310-399 917 532 385
WB
230-309 1241 541 700170-229 1030 548 482120-169 5098 2413 2685100-119 1815 323 1492
Nar
row
B.
60-99 831 317 51420-59 867 670 197 TOTAL 12546 5627 6919
Ave.Retiremnet 28 years
5. 4 Jet Airplane Backlog
At the end of 2000, passenger jet backlog for over 30-seater stand at 4,460 units,
and 85% of them are narrowbodies which include 1,350 regional jets. The majority
(83%) of backlog will be delivered within 5 years.
29
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Over 400 Seater310-399 Seater230-309 Seater170-229 Seater120-169 Seater100-119 Seater60-99 Seater20-59 Seater
JET AIRPLANE BACKLOG AND ESTIMATED DELIVERY SCHEDULE
UNDECIDED
1115
UNITS
DELIVERY YEAR
Source : Airclaim, as of 2000 Year-end Excludes Freighters
959
762
543
334
243
124
46 30 13
291
TOTAL 4,460
5. 5 Current and Future Airplane Model
5. 5. 1 Jet Airplane
5. 5. 2 Turboprop Airplane
30
A/C Size ManufacturerRange
CapabilitySalesTerm
Comments
20-39 328JET 30 * F.DORNIER RG 1999-SEATER ERJ-135 37 * EMBRAER RG 1999-40-59 528JET 55 * F.DORNIER RG 2005-SEATER ERJ-140 44 * EMBRAER RG 2001-
ERJ-145 50 * EMBRAER RG 1997-CRJ-200 50 * BOMBARDIER RG 1992-
60-79 728JET 70 * F.DORNIER RG 2003-SEATER CRJ-700 70 * BOMBARDIER RG 2001-
ERJ-170 70 * EMBRAER RG 2002-80-99 928JET 90 * F.DORNIER RG 2005-SEATER ERJ-190 70 * EMBRAER RG 2004-
RJ85/RJX85 85 * BAe RG 1993-RJ100 100 ** BAe RG 1993-CRJ-900 86 * BOMBARDIER RG 2002-YSX 80 ** BOEING/JAPAN RG 2005-YSXS 97 ** BOEING/JAPAN RG 2005-
100-119 A318 115 ** AIRBUS SR 2003-SEATER B717 105 ** BOEING SR/MR 1999-
B737-600 108 ** BOEING SR/MR 1998-120-169 A319 124 ** AIRBUS SR/MR 1996-SEATER A320 150 ** AIRBUS SR/MR 1988-
B737-700 127 ** BOEING SR/MR 1998-B737-800 160 ** BOEING SR/MR 1998-B737-900 177 ** BOEING SR/MR 2001-
170-229 A321 180 ** AIRBUS SR/MR 1993-SEATER B757-200 186 ** BOEING SR/MR 1983-
B757-300 186 ** BOEING SR/MR 1999-230-309 B767-200/200ER 224 ** BOEING SR/MR/LR 1982-SEATER B767-300/300ER 269 ** BOEING SR/MR/LR 1986-
B767-400ERX 303 ** BOEING SR/MR/LR 2000-A300-600 266 ** AIRBUS SR/MR -2010A310-200/300 220 ** AIRBUS SR/MR/LR 1983-A330-200 256 *** AIRBUS SR/MR/LR 1998-A330-500 222 *** AIRBUS SR/MR/LR 2004-
310-399 A330-300 295 *** AIRBUS SR/MR/LR 1993-SEATER A340-200 263 *** AIRBUS MR/LR -2001
A340-300 295 *** AIRBUS MR/LR 1993-A340-500 313 *** AIRBUS MR/LR 2001-A340-600 380 *** AIRBUS MR/LR 2001-B777-200/X 368 *** BOEING SR/MR/LR 1995-B777-300/X 394 *** BOEING SR/MR 1998-
400-499 B747-400/ER 416 *** BOEING SR/MR/LR -2007SEATER B747-X 430 *** BOEING SR/MR/LR 2007-Over 500 B747-X STRETCH 504 *** BOEING SR/MR/LR 2005-SEATER A380-800 555 *** AIRBUS SR/MR/LR 2006-
A380-900 656 *** AIRBUS SR/MR/LR 2010-
* : 1 Class, ** : 2 Class, *** : 3 Class
Airplane Model Seats
WID
EB
OD
Y J
ET
NA
RR
OW
BO
DY
JET
A/C Size Model Seats Manufacturer Rage Capability
15-19 METRO 19 * SWEARINGEN RG 2001 -SEATER BE1900 19 * RAYTHEON RG 2001 -
FD228 19 * F.DORNIER RG 2001 -20-39 FD328 30 * F.DORNIER RG 2001 -SEATER EMB-120 30 * EMBRAER RG 2001 -
DHC8-100 30 * BOMBARDIER RG 2001 -40-59 DHC8-300 50 * BOMBARDIER RG 2001 -SEATER ATR-42 42 * ATR RG 2001 -60-79 ATR-72 70 * ATR RG 2001 -SEATER DHC8-400 70 * BOMBARDIER RG 2001 -
Sales Term
5. 6 Assumption of Turboprop and Jet share in small airplane market
The regional jet operations are spreading widely in United States and Europe in
recent years, because of passenger preference and advent of competitive jet with
turboprop.
According to the recent trend for the small airplane order, jet airplanes are selected
more than 70% of them. In our forecast, a possibility of jet selection is assumed
60% for the demand generated from present turboprop market.
31
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
728JET
ERJ170
F70
RJ70
CRJ700
DHC8-400
ATR72
60-79 SEATER
TURBOPROP
JET
UNITS
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
ERJ145
ERJ140
CRJ100/200
Saab 2000
F50
DHC8-300
ATR42
40-59 SEATER
TURBOPROP
JET
0
50
100
150
200
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
ERJ135
328JET
Saab340
Do328
CN235
EMB120
DHC8-100/200
20-39 SEATER
TURBOPROP
JET
CALENDAR YEAR
TURBOPROP vs. JET ORDERS IN SMALL AIRCRAFT MARKET
5. 7 Jet Fleet and Deliveries Forecast
The world jet fleet exists 12,500 units in 2000 , that is 2.3 times of the fleet size in
1980.
That fleet is projected to increase to 26,200 units in 2020, it is twice of the existing
fleet, and 20,500 units are forcast to add as new deliveries and 6,900 old airplanes
will be retired for this period.
Two-third of total fleet will be narrowbody airplane and remaining one-third will
be widebody airplane.
<By airplane size>
The 120 - 169 seater market is projected 8,300 units and accounts for the largest
fleet of the total. This market requires 5,100 new deliveries such as A319/A320
and B737 families.
The regional jet market of under 99 seater, has a demand of replacement for
turboprops and a demand for transferred routes from major airlines by appearance
of economical regional jets. The 20 - 59 seater market is mainly existing CRJ and
ERJ, 900 jets are operated now, will need 3,000 units in 2020. The 60 - 99 seat
32
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
WORLD JET FLEET FORECAST
20-59 SEATER
60-99 SEATER
100-119 SEATER
OVER 400 SEATER
120-169 SEATER
170-229 SEATER
230-309 SEATER
310-399 SEATER
UNITS
ACTUAL FORECAST26152
12546
18329
5563
7689
RETAINED
NEW DELIVERY
328JET/428JET,ERJ135/145,CRJ200
CRJ700/900,BRJ-X,YSX
717,737-600A318
728JET/928JET,ERJ170/190,Avro RJ
737-700/800/900A319/A320
757
A310767
A340777
747XA3XX
727-200,737-300/400A320,MD80/MD90
DC8,707
747DC10,MD11L1011
767
727-100,737-100/200/500,TRIDENT,DC9S
BAC111,F28/F70/F100,DC9
A321
A300
A330
747
A310A300
market, it has some developing airplanes now, will need 3,500 units in 2020
compared with 800 units now.
The 100 - 119 seater, included 717 and shrink derivatives such as A318 and 737-
600, is considered to a minimum size market for major airlines. The fleet of this
market is projected to grow slightly from 1,800 jets in 2000 to 2,500 jets in 2020.
The 170 - 229 seater market, that is the largest size category as a narrowbody jet,
has a potential demand for replacement for the biggest market of 120 - 169 seater
now. The fleet is expected to 2,500 in 2020 from 1,000 in 2000.
In the widebody market, the fleet of 230 - 309 seater such as 767 class is 1,200 and
the fleet of 311 - 399 seater is 900 in 2000. These airplanes are expected to grow as
a major airplane for major domestic routes and international routes, especially the
310 - 399 seater is projected to grow faster for replacement of existing 747 and
new market for long-range routes. And they will be 2,400 and 2,600 in 2020.
The large airplanes over 400 seater included 747 are mainly operated for Pacific
routes and Asia - Europe routes. The fleet for this market is projected to grow
slowly to 1,300 in 2020 from 700 units in 2000.
33
867 670 831
1815
5098
2413
1030548
1241541
917532 747
2282 3167
2165
5910
1980 1892 2079
1050
2833233170
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020
JET FLEET AND DELIVERY FORECAST BY SIZE
RETAINED
NEW DELIVERY
867
2952
831
3484
1815
2488
5098
8323
1030
2528
1241
2433
917
2611
747
1333
20-59SEATER
728Jet / 928JetCRJ-700/900ERJ-170/190
A318B717B737-600
A319 / A320B737-700/800/900
A321B757
A300 / A310A330-200/500B767
A330-300A340B777
A380B747B747X
328Jet / 528JetCRJ-100/200ERJ-135/140/145
60-99SEATER
100-119SEATER
120-169SEATER
170-229SEATER
230-309SEATER
310-399SEATER
OVER 400SEATER
TOTAL FLEET2000 Year-end: 12,546 UNITS2020 Year-end: 26,152 UNITS
2001-2020 Deliveries20,525 UNITS
WIDEBODYNARROWBODY
REGIONAL JET
FUTUREAIRCRAFT
UNITS
<By airlines domiciled regions>
North American airlines are now operating 43% (5,300 units) of worldwide fleet
and will need 8,700 airplanes in 2020. They will receive 6,500 new airplanes (32%
of total delivery) consist of 5,600 narrow-bodies and 900 wide-bodies year 2001 to
2020.
European airlines will increase their fleet from 3,400 units in 2000 to 7,700 units in
2020 and they will need 5,800 airplanes shared 29% of total deliveries for this
period. They are split off approximately a quarter for widebodies and three
quarters for narrowbodies.
Though Asia/Pacific airlines are operating only 17% (2,200 airplanes) of the world
fleet at the present, they will operate 5,700 airplanes in 2020 caused by higher
traffic growth rate than the others. Total regional deliveries for the next 20 years
will be 4,600, and nearly half of total regional deliveries will be widebody
airplanes. They will need large airplanes for long-range, 62% (650units) of total
world deliveries for over 400 seat market (1,050 units) will be required by this
region.
34
Aircraft Size(Seats)
Aircraft2000 year-end
Fleet2020 year-end
Fleet2001-2020Deliveries
20-59328JET/528JET, CRJ-200,ERJ-135/140/145
867 2,952 2,282
60-99728JET/928JET, AVRO RJ,CRJ-700/900, ERJ-170/190,YSX/YSXS
831 3,484 3,167
100-119 A318, B717/B737-600 1,815 2,488 2,165
120-169A319/A320,B737-700/800/900
5,098 8,323 5,910
170-229 A321, B757-200/300 1,030 2,528 1,980
230-309A300-600, A310-200/300,A330-200/500,B767-200/300/400
1,241 2,433 1,892
310-399A330-300,A340-200/300/500/600,B777-200/300
917 2,611 2,079
400-499 B747-400, B747X 747 721 438
Over 500 A380-100/200, B747X ST 0 612 612
TOTAL 12,546 26,152 20,525
35
21871804
1110526
6514
5848
4593
357016662170
3427
5283
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020
RETAINED
JET FLEET AND DELIVERY FORECAST BY REGIONUNITS
NEW DELIVERY
8701
N.AMERICA EUROPE ASIA / PCIFIC OTHERS
7652
5703
4096
TOTAL FLEET2000 YEAR-END : 12,546 UNITS2020 YEAR-END : 26,152 UNITS 2001~2020 DELIVERIES
20,525 UNITS
OTHERS13%
OTHERS16%
N.AMERICA43%
N.AMERICA33%ASIA / PACIFIC
17% ASIA / PACIFIC22%
EUROPE27% EUROPE
29%
JET FLEET SHARE BY REGION
2020 Year-end : 26,152 Units
2000 Year-end : 12,546 Units
36
957560 526
1261
1008
361530
738
734
423
2120
1793
993
1006
537
577
543
495
434
625
507
914
646
240
271
322340
350
308
235
113
56
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
N.AMERICA
UNITS
EUROPE ASIA / PACIFIC OTHERS
OVER 400 SEATER310-399 SEATER
230-309 SEATER170-229 SEATER
120-169 SEATER
100-119 SEATER
60-99 SEATER
20-59 SEATER
JET DELIVERY FORECAST BY REGION / SIZE
6514
5848
4593
3568
2001-2020 DELIVERIES20,525 UNITS
JET AIRPLANE DELIVERY SHARE BY REGION(2001 - 2020)
TOTAL 20,525 UNITS
ASIA / PACIFIC22%
N.AMERICA33%
OTERS17%
EUROPE28%
<Yearly delivery>
Yearly jet delivery experienced big up and down from 250 units at the bottom in
1984 to 1,100 units at the peak in 1999 for the past 20 years by the airline's
financial conditon and traffic growth.
Future yearly delivery will decrease to 700 units by 2005 as a reaction of recent
massive deliveries and then it will gradually increase to 1,300 units by 2020.
Average yearly deliveries for the next 20 year will be 1,030 airplanes. This
projection is not considered manufacturer's production capability, but according to
the actual delivery of 1,100 units included regional jets in 1999, 1,300 units
production a year is not an unrealistic value.
37
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
OVER 400
310 - 399
230 - 309
170 - 229
120 - 169
100 - 119
80 - 99
60 - 79
40 - 59
20 - 39
YEARLY JET AIRCRAFT DELIVERY FORECASTUNITS AIRCRAFT SIZE
(SEATS)
ACTUAL FORECAST
<Sales Forecast>
The 20,500 jet airplane deliveries to the world airlines are expected to reach $1,173
billion (2000 US$) over the next 20 years.
The largest market (29%) in unit will be 120 - 169 seater category, but in dollar
value, 310 - 399 seater category will be the largest one (23%).
The portion of widebody airplane in unit will represent a quarter of total,
nevertheless it will be shared 55% in dollar value.
38
2282
3167
2165
5910
1980 1892
1050
2079
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
20-59SEATER
60-99SEATER
100-119SEATER
120-169SEATER
170-229SEATER
230-309SEATER
310-399SEATER
OVER 400SEATER
JET AIRCRAFT SALES FORECAST BY SIZE(2001 - 2020)UNITS 2000 Price
($ Billions)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
35.9
78.568.6
236.4
102.7
175.3
279.6
196.3
TOTAL20,525 UNITS$1173 Billions
AIRCRAFT SIZE
NARROWBODY WIDEBODY
JET DELIVERY SHARE BY SIZE
60-99SEATER
15%
20-50SEATER
11%
100-119SEATER
11%
2001-2020 20,525 UNITS
JET AIRPLANE SALES SHARE BY SIZE
120-169SEATER
20%
120-169SEATER
29%
170-229SEATER
9%
170-229SEATER
10%
230-309SEATER
15%
230-309SEATER
9%
310-399SEATER
23%
310-399SEATER
10%
100-119 SEATER6%
60-99SEATER
7%OVER 400 SEATER
17%
OVER 400 SEATER5%
20-59 SEATER3%
US$1,173 BILLIONS
5. 8 Turboprop Fleet and Deliveries Forecast
The passenger turboprop fleet for world airlines exists 4,600 units in 2000 , that is
2.1 times of the fleet size in 1980.
The routes for turboprop in 2000 are almost categorized to the regional market
which includes under 1,000km routes, and the traffic is projected to grow at 3.9%
per year for the next 20 years. But many of over 20 seater turboprop airplanes will
be replaced by regional jets, therefore the fleet of turboprops will shrink to 3,900
in 2020..
Assuming the average life of a turboprop is 28 years by the trend, two-third or
3,070 units of the current fleet will be retired during the forecast period. The
deliveries of the turboprops will be 2,300 units for the period.
39
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
TURBOPROP FLEET FORECASTUNITS
15-19SEATER
20-39SEATER
40-59SEATER
OVER 60SEATER
RETAINED
NEW DELIVERY
4649
3913
2220
4532
3686
ACTUAL FORECAST
JET STREAM31, DHC6BE99/MOD1900,METRO,EMB110
JET STREAM41,CN235SD330/360SAAB340
748,F27/F50SAAB2000DHC8-300
DHC8-300ATR42
FD328,DHC8-100EMB-120
FD228,METROMOD1900
ATR72,DHC8-400
< By airplane size >
The 15 - 19 seater market is the only viable market for the turboprop airplane. This
market is expected to the largest market for the turboprops because it has no
regional jet, but some of them will be replaced by 20 - 39 seater jets.
Almost of the deliveries for the 20 - 39 seater and the 40 - 59 seater market will be
replaced by the regional jet, the fleet of turboprops for these market will shrink to
60 - 80% of present level.
In the over 60 seater market, only about 350 turboprops are operated, and a high
speed turboprop such as DHC8-400 is developed and just introduced to replace the
old turboprops. However, it is not clear how many turboprops will be required in
future as compared with the regional jets. The fleet of this market is projected to
grow slightly to 500 in 2020.
40
1841
450
1349
586
1111
359 348
186
1199
473
344
316
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020
1841
1649
1349
10591111
703
348
502
15-19 SEATER 20-39 SEATER 40-59 SEATER OVER 60 SEATER
TURBOPROP FLEET AND DELIVERY FORECAST BY SIZEUNITS
TOTAL FLEET2000 Year-end: 4,649 UNITS2020 Year-end: 3,913 UNITS
2001-2020 DELIVERIES2,332 UNITS
< Deliveries by region >
The North American airlines which have many regional airlines, will be required
29% or 690 units of the total delivery for next 20 years. The Asia/Pacific and the
European airlines will occupied 24% or 560 units and 21% or 480 units. The rest
of world airlines will be required 26% or 610 units.
The yearly delivery was over 200 units in past 20 years, but it will decline to 100
units because many turboprops will be shifted to regional jets.
41
700
433
213 235
685
555
481611
1056
805
1057
1737
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020
RETAINED
TURBOPROP FLEET AND DELIVERY FORECAST BY REGIONUNITS
NEW DELIVERY
1385
N.AMERICA EUROPE ASIA / PACIFIC OTHERS
TOTAL FLEET2000 YEAR-END 4,655 UNITS2020 YEAR-END 3,913 UNITS 2001-2020 DELIVERIES
2,332 UNITS
988
694
846
42
383
238 222
356
162
90 97
124
66
12082
76
74
107
80
55
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
N.AMERICA EUROPE ASIA / PACIFIC OTHERS
UNITS
TURBOPROP DELIVERY FORECAST BY REGION AND SIZE
685
555
481
611
15-19 SEATER
20-39 SEATER
40-59 SEATER
OVER 60 SEATER
2001-2020 DELIVERIES2,332 UNITS
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
OVER 60 SEATER
40-59 SEATER
20-39 SEATER
15-19 SEATER
YEARLY TURBOPROP AIRCRAFT DELIVERY FORECASTUNITS
ACTUAL FORECAST
< Sales Forecast >
The 2,300 turboprop airplane deliveries to the world airlines are expected to reach
$17.3 billion (2000 US$) over the next 20 years. Compared with the jet market, the
turboprop deliveries are just 11% in unit and 1.5% in sales value.
The 15 - 19 seater will be the largest market in unit, and required 1,200 units which
are 51% of total.turboprop deliveries. The 20 - 39 seater market will be required
470 units (20%), the 40 - 59 seater will be 340 units (15%), and the over 60 seater
will be 320 units (14%).
In sales values, the over 60 seater which is the highest airplane price, will be $5.1
billions or 29% of total sales of turboprops. The other market will be about $4
billions each, which will be occupied 21 to 25% of total.
43
1199
473
316344
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
15-19 SEATER 20-39 SEATER 40-59 SEATER OVER 60 SEATER
AIRCRAFT SIZE
TURBOPROP SALES FORECAST(2001-2020)
UNITS 2000 US$ BILLIONS
4.43.7
4.1
5.1
0
4
6
8
10
2
TOTAL2,332 UNITS
US $131 BILLIONS
12
14
6. Engine Market Forecast
The engine's delivery is estimated only from the equipped engines for new airplane
delivery and their spares which are assumed 15% of equipped engines.
The spare engines for existing fleet are not included for this forecast.
6.1 Engine Category and Equipped Airplanes
44
THRUSTCATEGORY(x1000 lb)
ENGINE NAMEMANU-FACTURER
THRUST(x1000 lb)
EQUIPPED AIRPLANE (NO. OF ENGINE)
65 - 115 CF6-80E1 GE/SNECMA 67.5 - 72 A330(2)
GE90 GE/SNECMA 75 - 115 B777(2)
GP7000 GE/PW 67 - 75 A380(4), B747X(4)
PW4074/4084 PW 74 - 84 B777(2)
PW4168 PW 68 A330(2)
TRENT 700 RR 64 - 75 A330(2)
TRENT 800 RR 75 - 95 B777(2)
TRENT 900 RR 68 - 84 A380(4), B747X(4)
35 - 65 CF6-50 GE/SNECMA 46.5 - 54 B747(4), A300(2)
CF6-80A GE/SNECMA 48 - 50 B767(2), A310(2)
CF6-80C2 GE/SNECMA 52.5 - 61.5 B747(4), B767(2), A300(2), A310(2), MD-11(3)
JT9D PW 43.6 - 56 B747(4), B767(2), A300(2), A310(2)
PW4000 PW 52 - 68 B747(4), B767(2), A300(2), A310(2), A330(2),
MD-11(3)
RB211-524G/H RR 58 - 60.6 B747-400(4), B767-300(2)
TRENT 500 RR 56 A340-500/600(4)
PW2000 PW 38.2 - 41.7 B757(2)
RB211-535C/E4 RR 37.4 - 43.1 B757(2)
12 - 35 V2500 IAE 22 - 30 A319(2), A320(2), A321(2), MD-90(2)
CFM56 CFM INT'L 18.5 - 34 B737-300/400/500(2), B737-600/700/800/900(2)
A318(2), A319(2),A320(2), A321(2), A340-200/300(4)
JT8D-200 PW 18.5-21 MD-80(2)
PW6000 PW 20 - 23 A318(2)
BR700 BMW/RR 18.5-22 717(2)
-12 LF507 TEXTRON 7 BAe146(4),Avro RJ(4)
CF34 GE 8.6 - 9.2 CRJ-100/200(2), CRJ-700(2), CRJ-900(2), ERJ-170(2)
ERJ-190(2),528JET(2), 728JET(2),928JET(2)
AE3007 ALLISON 7.2-12 ERJ-135(2), ERJ-140(2), ERJ-145(2)
PW300 PWC 4.2 - 5.7 328JET(2)
Turboprop GMA2100 ALLISON 4152 - 6000 SHP DHC8-400(2)
CT7 GE 1870 SHP DHC8-100(2)/300(2)
PW100 PWC 1800 - 2750 SHP ATR42(2), ATR72(2),
DHC8-100(2)/300(2), EMB120(2)
TPE 331 GARRETT 715 SHP CASA212(2), Metro(2), Do228(2)
6.2 Engine Deliveries Forecast
Engine deliveries for the next 20 years will be 52,770 units for jet and 5,360 units
for turboprop.
They will be $2.78 billions and $4 billions in dollar value respectively.
The largest engine market category in unit will be 12,000 - 35,000 lb class which
are equipped by A320 and B737 series, and they represent 43% of total engine
market.
In sales value, 65,000.- 100,000 lb class of the largest size and higher price, which
are equipped by A330/A380 and B777/B747X, will be the largest one.
45
5364
13365
22663
8014 8729
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
T/P <12 12-35 35-65 65-100 (1000 LB)
A330A380B777B747X
A300/A310/A340B747/B757/B767
A318/A319/A320A321/A340B757/B767/B737
328JET/528JET728JET/928JETAvro RJCRJ-200/700/900EMB135/145/170/190
1900, MetroATR42/ 72,CN235, DHC- 8Do228/ 328EMB-120
ENGINE DELIVERY FORECAST(2001 - 2020)
NO. OF ENGINE
NUMBER OF ENGINE
NO.OF ENGINE
SALES VALUE($ B)
TURBOPROP 5,364 4JET 52,771 278
TOTAL 58,135 282
0
25
4
27
91
64
96
50
75
100
125
SALES VALUE
SALES VALUE(2000 US $ B)
7. Forecast Methodology
The methodology adapted is a regionally and range segmented top-down approach
and is not reliant on the fleet plan of individual airlines.
Segmented ASK distributions by aircraft size are calculated by using OAG
schedule data, and make them to base year's ideal ASK distributions by moving
average method.
Required ASK distribution in future is calculated by using the base year's ideal
ASK distribution and the growth rates of ASK. Then, shift of aircraft size is
considered to link with ASK growth in each segment.
The required ASK will be filled by ASK of retained fleet considered with the
retirement, and the rest will be delivery ASK. After the ASK of backlog aircraft to
be delivered will be excluded from the delivery ASK, the rest will be new delivery
(open) ASK.
The open ASK will be assigned to new aircraft which will be available in the
forecast year, and suitable in size and range. At the same time, it will be also
considered the market share of the aircraft manufacturer. And number of new
aircraft will be calculated from the ASK assigned.
46
AircraftOperating Range
Analysis
Utilization,Block SpeedAssumption
GNP ForecastHistorical
FleetData
OrderedAircraftData
Open ASK(10 Regions and 4 Range Categories)
Air Traffic(10 Regions)
Yield ForecastLoad FactorAssumption
AircraftRetirementAssumption
ASK Forecast
Historical ASKvs.
Size
FutureRetained
Fleet
RPK Forecast
FutureRequired ASK
vs. Size
Retained ASKvs.
Size
Open ASKvs.
Size
Fleet Forecast
New AircraftSales
Forecast
Manufacturer'sMarketShare
AircraftEvaluation
Aircraft Sales Forecast
World Fleet Forecast System Flow
The Worldwide Market Forecast for Commercial Air Transport 2001 - 2020
can be found on the internet at : http//www.iijnet.or.jp/jadc/jadc_home.htm.
For more information and questions about this doccument, contact
[email protected] by e-mail.
47