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Enviro-weather: A Weather-based pest and crop management information system for Michigan
J. Andresen, L. Olsen, T. Aichele, B. Bishop, J. Brown, J. Landis, S. Marquie, and A. Pollyea
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Enviro-weather MissionEnviro-weather is an interactive information system linking real-time weather data, forecasts, and biological and other process-based models for assistance in operational decision-making and risk management associated with Michigan’s agriculture and natural resource industries.
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System Basics
• 8 Full- and part-time staff• 77 automated weather stations across MI and
WI• Dedicated computer system for collection,
processing, dissemination, and archival of data• System supported by MI Project GREEEN, MI
AgBioResearch, MSU Extension, external grants, corporate/individual sponsorships, and grower contributions
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AutomatedWeatherNetwork
via cellmodem
MSUEnviro-weather
National Weather Serviceforecast information
via satellite,Internet
MSUExtension
Informationfor
Growers/Managers
via Internet
via phone,Internet,
other
via Internet
Scouting Input
Evaluated Weather , ClimateApplications and Products
Training
Feedback Loop:Problems, Needs, New Ideas
Enviro-weather Information Flow
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Enviro-weather Product Types
Enviro-weather
Plant phenology models
Pest models
Irrigation management models
Weather summaries
www.enviroweather.msu.edu
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Enviro-weather Automated Weather NetworkMarch 2013
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Weather Monitoring
• Variables monitored include air and soil temps, rel. hum., precip., solar rad., wind speed and dir., leaf wetness, and soil moisture
• Network utilizes cell IP modems• Obs. available at 5 min., 1 hour, and 24 hour
intervals • New sites sponsored by grants, grower
contributions
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www.enviroweather.msu.edu
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Adding New Products
• Enviro-Weather system is modular in design to accommodate new products
• Potential new products identified by work groups or staff/faculty
• Product check list– Method based on sound science– Method tested/validated under Michigan or similar
conditions– Method usable with Enviro-Weather data, system
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System Use Statistics2006-2012
Jul-2
006
Nov-2
006
Mar
-200
7
Jul-2
007
Nov-2
007
Mar
-200
8
Jul-2
008
Nov-2
008
Mar
-200
9
Jul-2
009
Nov-2
009
Mar
-201
0
Jul-2
010
Nov-2
010
Mar
-201
1
Jul-2
011
Nov-2
011
Mar
-201
2
Jul-2
012
Nov-2
012
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
Monthly Product Requests
Mo
del
req
ues
ts p
er m
on
th
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Tree Fruit Survey Results
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Survey of Michigan Fruit Growers and the Economic Value of Enviro-weather
Stratum Description N n n-c resp rate weight
1apples gt 1 acre 568 452 348 77.0% 1.632
2tarts gt 1 acre 164 145 109 75.2% 1.505
3sweets gt 1 acre 279 235 179 76.2% 1.559
4apples ge 100 acres 81 81 63 77.8% 1.286
5tarts ge 100 acres 55 55 47 85.5% 1.170
6sweets ge 50 acres 32 32 22 68.8% 1.455
total 1179 1000 768 76.8%
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Usage of EW n %
Running %
Yes, I use it myself 300 26.7 26.7I do not, but my fieldman/consultant does 43 3.9 30.6No 779 69.4 100
n %Running
%I have never heard of Enviro-weather 362 47.8 47.8I have heard of Enviro-weather, but have not
visited the website160 21.1 69
I have no Internet access 100 13.3 82.2I have tried to use Enviro-weather, but it is not
useful for me 19 2.5 84.7
Other, please specify 115 15.3 100Total 756 100
If no…
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What types of internet connection do you have?
n % Running %
Dialup 24 7.8 7.8Broadband (DSL/Cable) 178 57.0 64.9Smartphone (Cellular) 16 5.1 70.0Satellite 31 10.0 79.9Dialup and broadband 4 1.4 81.3Dialup and smartphone 3 1.0 82.3Broadband and smartphone 48 15.4 97.7Smartphone and satellite 6 1.8 99.5Broadband, smartphone & satellite 1 0.5 100.0Total 312 100.0
N=343
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How useful is EW?
Disease predictive models
Current weather information
Pest insect predictive models
Weather summary tables
60 hour forecast
Overnight temperatures
Informational Maps
Links to IPM resources
Crop management models
Soil temperatures
Irrigation scheduling
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Usefulness of Enviro-weather:
Not familiar
"Very" or "Extremely" important
Percent of Responses
Disease predictive models
Current weather information
Pest insect predictive models
Weather summary tables
60 hour forecast
Overnight temperatures
Informational Maps
Links to IPM resources
Crop management models
Soil temperatures
Irrigation scheduling
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Usefulness of Enviro-weather:
Percent responding “very” or “extremely” useful excluding “not familiar”
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EW Impacts on Crop Output:Insecticides
Codling Moth Oblique Banded Leafroller
Plum Curculio Oriental Fruit Moth Fruit Fly (Apple Maggot)
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%EW Impacts on Yields: Percent Change
-15% or less
-10%
-5%
No impact
5%
10%
15% or more
Per
cen
t o
f U
sers
Codling Moth Oblique Banded Leafroller
Plum Curculio Oriental Fruit Moth Fruit Fly (Apple Maggot)
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%EW impacts on Crop Quality: Percent Change
-15% or less
-10%
-5%
No impact
5%
10%
15% or morePer
cen
t o
f U
sers
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Impact of EW on Number of Insecticide Sprays
Codling Moth Oblique Banded Leafroller
Plum Curculio Oriental Fruit Moth Fruit Fly (Apple Maggot)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Impact of EW: Number of Sprays
At least 3 more sprays
2 additional sprays
1 additional spray
No change
1 fewer sprays
2 fewer sprays
At least 3 fewer sprays
Per
cen
t o
f U
sers
Codling Moth*
Oblique Banded Leafroller*
Plum Curculio*
Oriental Fruit Moth*
Fruit Fly (Apple Maggot)*
-1.00 -0.90 -0.80 -0.70 -0.60 -0.50 -0.40 -0.30 -0.20 -0.10 0.00
Average Change in Sprays
Average Change in Number of Sprays* Denotes statistically different from zero
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EW Impacts on Crop Output:Fungicides
Apple Scab Cherry Leaf Spot Fireblight Sooty blotch/ Flyspeck
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%EW Impacts on Yields: Percent Change
-15% or more-10%-5%No impact5%10%+15% or more
Per
cen
t o
f U
sers
Apple Scab Cherry Leaf Spot Fireblight Sooty blotch/ Flyspeck
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%EW Impacts on Crop Quality: Percent Change
-15% or more-10%-5%No impact5%10%+15% or moreP
erc
en
t o
f U
sers
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Impact of EW on Number of Fungicide Sprays
Apple Scab Cherry Leaf Spot Fireblight Sooty blotch/ Flyspeck
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%Impact of EW: Number of Sprays
At least 3 more sprays 2 additional sprays1 additional sprayNo change1 fewer sprays2 fewer spraysAt least 3 fewer sprays
Per
cen
t o
f U
sers
* Denotes statistically different from zero
Apple Scab*
Cherry Leaf Spot*
Fireblight*
Sooty blotch/ Flyspeck*
-1.00 -0.90 -0.80 -0.70 -0.60 -0.50 -0.40 -0.30 -0.20 -0.10 0.00
Average Change in Sprays
Average Change in Number of Sprays
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EW Impact on Work Hours
n %Running
%
Decreased it by more than 15 or more 13 4.8 4.8Decreased it by 10 hours 18 6.4 11.2Decreased it by 5 hours 94 33.5 44.7No effect 141 50.3 94.9Increased it by 5 hours 10 3.7 98.6Increased it by 10 hours 3 1.0 99.6Increased it by 15 or more hours 1 0.4 100.0
How has using Enviro-weather products changed the amount of time required to manage your crop during an average work-week during the growing season?
Quantifying the impact on work hours based on $15 per hour for all apple, tart and sweet cherry growers, this amounts to a per grower savings of 750 work hours and $11,250.
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Economic Impacts on Production and Costs
Michigan NASS 2001 Bases Impacts on Yield
Production Value Use EW Production ValueProductio
n Value mill lbs $000s % mill lbs $000s mill lbs $000s
Apples 590 114,875 25% 140 27,316 4.8 943.2Tart Cherries 135 26,605 39% 51 9,970 1.8 352.4Sweet Cherries 30 9,515 37% 11 3,400 0.4 120.2
• Impacts are based on rates of adopting EW by commodity and average experienced yield impacts by commodity
• Does not account for quality impacts, which tend to exceed those of yield
• Michigan production increases by 7 million lbs• Michigan sales increase and costs savings result in
statewide economic impact of $1,786,000
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Future Directions
• Continued research, new product development• Conversion of dataloggers (CR10X to CR1000)• Revenue generation (value added apps, e.g. smart
phone)• Increasing use of NWS gridded products
– Real time obs. (RTMA)– Forecast products (NDFD)
• Inclusion of climatological statistics
in system products
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Summary
• Demand for detailed weather information in IPM is increasing
• Weather-based applications have large potential economic and environmental value
• Sustainable funding mechanisms still needed, including grower contributions
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Questions?