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from fragility --> agility
[email protected] @aspiringarc
what if xtreme continuous change is the new ‘stable state’
WARNING: work-in-progress
finding antifragility strategies
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Your job (later) today?
1. Find me 2. Share a story 3. Challenge my
hypothesis
open innovation in action
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My hypothesis
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(what if we are wrong?)
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it was a sunny spring morning in Berlin
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& 250 other likeminds
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Rita Gunther McGrath, Professor Columbia Business School
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Rita made me question my assumptions? What if….
1.Industry isn’t stable & understandable 2. Advantages aren’t sustainable 3. Stability isn’t the stable state
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What if the new normal is about
TRANSIENT COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE 1. We surf short-lived waves (get in & get out) 2. We compete in arenas (arena = market + segment
+ offer + location) 3. We accept that change is the stable state (design
for change)
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If this was news to business people
Hmm!!
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then IT must be in the dark
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“denial is the most predictable of all human emotions”
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Agenda
I started to question the wisdom of some our actions
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(but before we go there)
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Steve Blank, UC Berkeley Business School
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Eric Ries, Entrepreneur in Residence Harvard Business School
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Steve & Eric made me question the way we approach change
1. Use scientific methods & measures 2. Use structured change processes 3. Move from rationalism -> to incrementalism
Lean Change Canvas – leanchange.org
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Brian Solis Altimeter Group
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Brian tells us that our customers are mutating
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Zero Moment Of Truth Ultimate Moment Of Truth
Brian also says experience is everything
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(what else is happening)
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let’s meet the 4 horsemen of the digital apocalypse
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and finally disruptors
debt-ridden fragile rigid
complex
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Oh wait I forgot the march of the milennials
47% by 2020
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a workforce of digital problem solvers
*MYOA
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What capabilities are essential for?
Are their patterns? Are their anti-patterns?
a question today…
(xcc)
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the stability dilemma
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In a turf war, someone always loses
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dynamic competition is ‘the new normal’
Industry A
Industry B
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Agenda
I started to question the wisdom of some our actions
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in the end it’s all about capability
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what is an antifragility architecture?
“wind extinguishes a candle
& energizes fire”
http://arxiv.org/pdf/1208.1189.pdf
V(X, fΛ, K,s`) OR
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in the end your architecture either enables or constrains your business model
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so what’s stopping you?
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well…you need to break out of the vicious merry-go-round
BAR
PPP
FF
EAM
TIM
SD
SRP
PM
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My hypothesis cont.
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1. Change is the new stable state
2. Build people; provide tools 3. Assumptions aren’t knowledge
3 Takeaways
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“If you want to teach people a new way of thinking, don't bother trying to teach them. Instead, give them a tool, the use of which will lead to new ways of thinking.”
― Richard Buckminster Fuller
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http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/j/john_f_kennedy.html#cWKIWigxSBrHvgq1.99
“Change is the law of life; those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future.”
JFK
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[email protected] @aspiringarc http://ie.linkedin.com/in/garmaccriosta www.iasa.ie | www.ivi.ie | www.ics.ie
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Research worlds are colliding