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Yakima O. mykiss Modeling Workshop
Ian Courter Casey Justice Steve Cramer
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Introductions
• What interests you most about the topic of anadromy and residency in O. mykiss?
• What would it take to make this a successful meeting for you?
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Project Objective
Quantify the influence of life-history diversity and environment on steelhead sustainability in the Yakima Basin.
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Deliverables
• Excel-based O.mykiss life-cycle model
• Peer reviewed publication
• Updated BA Steelhead Effects Analysis
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Roles and Responsibilities
“Clarifying roles up front is like writing a job description – without it, you have no idea who can do what to whom.”
Steve CramerProject Advisor
Yakima Joint Board / Bureau of ReclamationProject Sponsor
Ian CourterProject Lead
Casey JusticeLead Analyst
Advisors
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Choosing the Right Approach
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Advisor Comments and Contributions
• Comments will be addressed on an individual basis.
• Participants who to make substantive contributions will be given coauthorship on publications.
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Proposed Modeling Approach to Evaluating Drivers of Anadromous and Resident O. mykiss Abundance in the
Yakima Basin
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Project Background and Purpose
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ICTRT Extinction Risk Analysis
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Atlas of Pacific Salmon (2005)
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“…abandon the typological thinking (‘steelhead’ and ‘rainbow trout’ as biologically independent units) that has pervaded the biology and management of this species...”
McPhee et al. 2007
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Ecotype Abundance Drivers
• Carrying Capacity– Size-dependent, flow-dependent
• Growth– Temperature dependent
• Survival– Smolt to adult
• Fecundity– Size and life-history dependent
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Habitat Characteristics Favoring Residency or Anadromy
• High summer rearing temperatures
• Low summer flows• Variable growth
conditions• Reduced capacity for
adult fish• High migration survival
• Low summer rearing temperatures
• High summer flows• Consistent growth
conditions• Year-round capacity for
adult fish• Low migration survival
Anadromy Residency
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Resident Recruits
ResidentSpawners
Genetics
Environment
Mature Adults
NRAnadromous
Spawners
AnadromousRecruits
NA
Mature Adults
Genetics
Environment
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Juvenile Life-history Response
genotype + environment =
Anadromy Non-anadromy
phenotype
Life-History Response
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“The capability to balance life-history options fits understandings of anadromy as ‘…a suite of life history traits… expressed as points along continua for each species and population.’ (Quinn & Myers 2005) as ‘…a function of variation in costs and benefits…’ (Hendry et al. 2004)…”
McPhee et al. 2007
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Key Concepts
• Resident trout produce anadromous offspring
• Anadromous O. mykiss produce resident offspring
• Resident trout and anadromous steelhead in the upper Yakima, though phenotypically different, are genetically indistinguishable
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• Phenotypic state is determined by a combination of environment and genotype
• Phenotypic state determines juvenile life-history response (anadromy or non-anadromy)
• “State-dependent” or “conditional” strategies allow individuals within a population to maximize their fitness
Key Concepts
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To appropriately model Yakima steelhead abundance drivers, exchange between life-history forms in the population needs to be accounted for.
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Quantitative O. mykiss Population Assessment
Abundance
(1) Stochastic Population ModelProductivity
DiversitySpatial Structure
(2) Mechanistic Model
Genetic & Env ControlsSurvival
FecundityJuvenile Capacity
Modeling Phase
-Viability analysis tool
-Restoration planning tool
Resident Contribution
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Conceptual Modeling Approach
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Carrying Capacity
Growth(bioenergetics)
Juvenile Life-History Response
Survival and Fecundity
Genetics
Key Model Components
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Flow Temperature
Territory Size(competition)
Growth(bioenergetics)
Food supply
Capacity
Abundance Body Size
Conditions: Habitat
Fish Metrics:
(survival)
WUA(PHabSim)
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* Influenced by body size
Reproductive Success
Fecundity*
Marine Survival*
ResidentAnadromous
Life-history decision*
Juvenile Abundance
Freshwater Survival*
Reproductive Success
Fecundity
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Population
Metolius Upper Yakima Naches Satus Toppenish
Flo
w v
aria
bili
ty i
nd
ex
(CV
flo
w M
ar-S
ep (
%))
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
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Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Flo
w (
cfs)
at
Up
per
Yak
ima
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
Flo
w (
cfs)
at
To
pp
enis
h C
r.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Upper Yakima Toppenish
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Toppenish Creek above Olney
Flow (cfs)
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Juve
nile
ste
elh
ead
WU
A (
ft²/
1000
ft)
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Recalibrated data from Hardin and Davis (1990)
How do we model effects of flow on capacity?
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Flow (cfs)
0 500 1000 1500 2000
WU
A (
ft²/
1000
ft)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
FryJuvenileAdult
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From Grant and Kramer (1990)
Fish length (mm)
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Ter
rito
ry s
ize
(m²)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16Fry Juvenile Adult
Rearing capacity = WUA (m2) / Territory size (m2)
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Flow (cfs)
0 500 1000 1500 2000
Fry
cap
acit
y
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Juve
nil
e an
d a
du
lt c
apac
ity
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
FryJuvenileAdult
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Flow (cfs)
0 200 400 600 800 1000
Ad
ult
cap
acit
y /
juve
nile
cap
acit
y
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
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Stream temperature (°C)
0 5 10 15 20 25
Gro
wth
(g
/day
)
-0.01
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
From Rand et al. (1993) and Mangel and Sattherthwaite (2008).
Modeling Growth in FreshwaterGrowth = anabolic gains – catabolic losses
Factors influencing growth:
1) Temperature
2) Food availability
3) Fish density (competition)
4) Fish size
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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Dai
ly a
vg.
tem
per
atu
re (
°C)
0
5
10
15
20
Upper YakimaNaches
Data from Hydromet 2000-2007:
Satus and Toppenish temperature data?
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Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun
Fo
rk l
eng
th (
mm
)
0
100
200
300
400
Age-0 Age-1 Age-2
Predicted growth in the Upper Yakima
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May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Fo
rk le
ng
th (
mm
)
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
Expected(Optimal)
Observed(Constrained
Jun-Sep)
DecisionPoint
Δ Length (Observed – Expected)
= -28.6 mm
Age-1 Juvenile Growth
How does fish growth influence life-history variability?
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May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Fo
rk le
ng
th (
mm
)
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
Expected(Optimal)
Observed(Constrained September)
DecisionPoint
Δ Length (Observed – Expected)
= -7.8 mm
Age-1 Juvenile Growth
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Survival Tradeoffs
Marine(smolt to adult survival)
Fre
shw
ater
(juve
nile
to
adul
t su
rviv
al)
Resident
Anadromous
Both?
Both?Neither?
Reproductive Success(population status)
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Length at emergence (mm)
100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300
Mar
ine
surv
ival
sca
lar
(% o
f m
ax)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Data from Ward and Slaney (1989)
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Fecundity vs Body Size
Fecundity of Steelhead and Rainbow Trout Stocks
Length (inches)
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Eg
gs
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Rainbow Trout
Steelhead
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Genetics Modeling
• Thrower et al. 2004
– Heritabilities: probability of smolting and maturing
• Falconer 1989
– Response to selection
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Communication Platforms
• Project website: http://www.fishsciences.net/projects/yakima
• Webinar meetings and conference calls
• Personal email and phone correspondence
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End of Show
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Sashin Creek Rearing Studies 1996 Brood
Weight (g)
Age-2 life-history Jun-97 Oct-97 Jun-98
Resident 4 30 67
Mature 5 43 71
Smolt 5 41 89
Frank Thrower, pers. comm.
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