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SPECIFIC TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHIN A DEVELOPING COUNTRY
EXPLORING THE FUTURE OF SOFTWARETECHNOLOGY IN TURKEY
Nihan YILDIRIM, Istanbul Technical University
PRIME Network Of ExcellencePhD Conference, 2005
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Aim of Study Aim of Study-
Conducting a foresight study for Turkey on softwaretechnology, that is accepted as a critical technology globally- To provide inputs to national and industrial policymakers and strategy
formulators for designing effectiveand applicable policies and strategiesthat may open the opportunity windowwhichsoftware technology offers
- To force software industry professionals/practitioners think about the future.
Te c h n o l o g i c a l c a t c h i n g - u p
understanding,managemen t ,
implementat ion
Economica lcatching-up
economic
growthInternational
industrialcompetitiveness
R& Dinnovation
per formance
technologicaladvance
innovation
capability
design,formulat ion
implementat ion
Effective successful
pro-active Science &
TechnologyPolicies
Successful effective
scientific based tailored Future StudiesTechnology
Foresight
multiple mutable dynamics o f change
Te c h n o l o g i c a l d y n a m i s m i n t e l l e c t u a l t e c h n o l o g i c a l a b i l it y
S W O T
True reliable
updated valid Inputs
Te c h n o l o g i c a l c a t c h i n g - u p
understanding,managemen t ,
implementat ion
Economica lcatching-up
economic
growthInternational
industrialcompetitiveness
R& Dinnovation
per formance
technologicaladvance
innovation
capability
design,formulat ion
implementat ion
Effective successful
pro-active Science &
TechnologyPolicies
Successful effective
scientific based tailored Future StudiesTechnology
Foresight
multiple mutable dynamics o f change
Te c h n o l o g i c a l d y n a m i s m i n t e l l e c t u a l t e c h n o l o g i c a l a b i l it y
S W O T
True reliable
updated valid Inputs
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Difficulties & Constraints of Foresighting in a
developing country
Difficulties & Constraints of Foresighting in a
developing countryLimited Financial resources:Lackof sponsorship, local funds, expertise on projectmanagement / proposal design to achieve international funds
Inappropriate Political Climate:Lackof leadership of government, unsystematic socio-political decisions, political instability, ineffectivebureucracy
Lack of Institutional Framework:No corporation betweenacademy, different disciplines, noestablished institution to promote, facilitate, motivate technology foresight studies, immatureprofessional and sectoral NGO’s.Insufficient Records:Lackof databases and statisticsof experts, proffessionals, academicsand bureaucrats, firms, innovations, patents etc.
Insufficient Knowledge Base:developed countries’ monopoly on critical information, limitedconsultancy, no prior ampiric studies providing observable issues to compare the results withfor validation
Insufficient Knowledge Network:weak communication infrastructure, no culture of
exchanginginformationand teamwork, incompetency in IT.
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Method and process-Knowledge CreationMethod and process-Knowledge Creation
Literature search, ontrends, affecting
factors
Practitioner Consultant ExpertGroup (CEG)
8 developers,4 academics
Focused ExpertGroup (FEG)
15 developers,5 academics
Delphi SurveyParticipants
-20 academics (min.level: PhD) (%27 p.r.)-30 industry leader (min.middle level manager)(%44 p.r.)-62 SoftwareProfessionals (min. BScdegree/ 5 yearsexperience) (%62 p.r)- Total 112 participants(% 46 partic ipation rate)
Comments on affecting factorsand trends,
Questions for surveyquestionnaire for Phase 2-Defining main trends- FEG Answers/comments for
survey questionnairefor Phase 2-FEGResults of Phase-1 Survey with frequency
distribution, t-test, variance analysis :MAIN FACTORS AND TRENDS
TechnologyInteractionsMatrix
AffectingFactors,
subfactors
Questions for survey
questionnairefor Phase 3-
Delphi Survey Answers/comments for survey questionnaire for
Phase 3-Delphi Survey
Validation
Results of Phase-3 Survey withfrequency distribution, Z-test,variance analysis : FINDINGS
Second round
-Scenario Components: Driving forces, challenges, trends,-SWOT Analysis
-Policy Recommendations
Cause/effect, diagrams,Scenario Plans
56
questions
112questions
91findings
918findings
200factors
12technologies
Phase 1-Survey Design
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SCENARIOSSCENARIOS
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Evolution of Software TechnologyEvolution of Software Technology
SOFTWARESOFTWAREEVOLUTIONEVOLUTION
Broadband internetWireless networksMobile technologies Artificial intelligenceProcessorsComputing technologiesData StorageInput/Output DevicesVideo conference
Electronics
Material science /Technology:ceramics for networks and opticcables, Polymers, silicongermanium on batteries, siliconfor processors
Biotechnologies
Nano TechnologiesPower devices / power storage
Increasing, higher, complicatedUser requirements
InnovationsInnovations
Cooperation between technological disciplines
Interaction between technologies
Multidisciplinary competencies
New definition of software=Multidisciplinary Engineering
Advancedmethodological
skills
Structural methods/CMMI Agile methodsExtreme programmingPersonal Software Process
requires causes
High levelexpertise
Differentiation of Rulers /WorkersHigh level /Low level developers
AutomatedSoftware
development
AI, Bayesian techniques,
Simulation,CASE (Computer Assi sted SWEngineering),Constraints programming,Component-based softwaredevelopment
Developer communitiesGlobal firms Academy
Opensourcecode
Advancedtechnical skills
New specific HR/ management/organization/motivation/projectmanagement techniques
Cooperation of ITacademy andbusiness schools
Too smart andhardworking, toofree, independent
natured people
Mathematical/logicalcababilitiesIntellectual qualityCreativity
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Mobility of Human ResourcesMobility of Human Resources1. Increasing mobility of human resources between firms and countries will cause qualityproblems, loss of jobs in developed countries, weaken the local technological competencies of developing countries. SW companies will be more institutionalized to keep the continuity of thcompetitiveness by using knowledge management systems, standart methodologies to transformsoftware development from “ artcraft” to corporational procedures. (2010)
CHALLENGESRegulations against workforceimportPolitical discrimination to foreigners esp. in U.S.A.Insourcing to replace brain drain loss. (Labs, R&D centers of globalfirms in DC’s using the local innovative workforce)Advancedmethodologies
DRIVING FORCESIncreasing demand on cost effective IT professionalsHighlevel expertise needsWorkforce import, global HRdatabases, Brain hunters.Brain drain
2. Home offices, virtual offices and freelance working will change the family structures and bricultural changes. (2010-2015)
DRIVING FORCESChanges in the expectations of individuals from life quality(more free time, family before career).
CHALLENGESIncreasing subcontractorshipsDeclinein security of jobs
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Open source, open worldOpen source, open world
DRIVING FORCESAdvancedtechnical abilities provided by evolutionary developmentLower hardware performancerequirementsDeveloper communitiesDifficulties in stopping piracy throughtechnical/ regulativepreventionsCooperationwith hardwareproducersOpensourcecode as a strategic national choice for LDC’s
CHALLENGESGlobal firms opening their codesHardware integration problem of open source systems (5 years)Global firms’ lobbies about theinpracticality of opensourceWinTel
Open source code will change the basic concepts of software causing a return to code sharing structure at70’s, Software world will choose freedom and prefer open source code operating systems, office applicatioweb servers, database systems, domain name servers and languages. Market share of PC’s with open sourcesystems on them will increase. Global firms will have to cooperate with and support open source. (2007-20Licencing will be over in 10 years and SW firms will earn money through services (2010)Every country will have a national open source operating system (2015)
Artificial Intelligence Artificial Intelligence
DRIVING FORCESBayesian techniquesNeural Networks
Voice, pattern, speech recognition systems (in daily life in 2010)Fingertip and iris recognition (in daily life in 2007)Great opportunities of Multimodel biometric applications (2008)
CHALLENGESHigh processor needs,Needfor 64 bit operating systemsCooperation/mergers of electronic firms with IT/software firms
Speech recognition and speech-to-writing mechanisms notavailable till the perfect recording of voice is provided.Natural Language Processing (limiteddevelopments in 3 years)Need for definition of Multimodel biometrics Standarts
There will be digital intelligence in every device and electronics. Refrigerators, owens, washing machines,cars, doors, heating/cooling mechanisms, even heart batteries will be communicating with their users,producers, environment, social service centres, supermarkets etc. Electronics and Computers will bephysical and will be ble to read mimics and gestures of humans. Language translation programmes willremove most of cultural borders and reshape intellectual life. Forecasting, listening and analyzing disastersand natural events will improve the quality of life. (2015-2020)
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New ways of ComputingNew ways of ComputingQuantum computing:
not in practical use before 2020
Requires a specific programming languagecan be used in national defenceand military
Grid Computing:enables to connect and unite distributed computer resources and use thecommon power for higher performance needs.
Appropriate databases will be improved.enable LDC’s improve their national IT infrastructure and meet high computing performance needs with low costs.Enable industry shareresources.Security needs will be met till 2010.
Super Computing:requires an expensive infrastructure and advanced scientific knowledge and know-how,enables advanced applications like earth simulation.Canbe used in forecasting natural events and disasters, in material sciencereplacingthe real testing environment., inautomative industry for safety tests
Utility computing (On-demand):Not in practical use before 2015enables to carry resources dynamically between platforms,couples these resources for meeting high computing requirements.
Parallel processing:will not be widely used till 2008 .
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Mobile worldMobile world
DRIVING FORCESNr. of mobile users =2 billions- 2007,Nr. Of cellular phones>PC+TV (2006)Mobile subscriptionrate = %25 - world , %105- Europe2006
20trillion bit data download/day,%50 subscribers usedata services in 2006Mobile PC’s=Desktop(2008)Development in mobile devices market (8 billions USD in 2008)Mobile communication protocols likeBluetooth, Jini, Chai3G (in daily life in 2008), 4G and II.5 g (2010-2015)
Ubiguitous Computing (in daily life in 2009)Mergers of electronic producers and software providersPervasive computing and Post PC devices
CHALLENGESErgonomy in mobile devices- light batteries and fansSecurity problems
Battery problem ( will be solved in 2008)Difficulties in dynamic IPTransforming existingapplications to mobile applications
Mobile world will enable humans and companies to connect to networked computers and whole digitalenvironment anywhere, anytime through mobile internet , innovative mobile softwares, consolidated mobiledevices communicating with each other, that can be also used as payment cards, digital keys,ıd cards byembedded chips. This will change the way of living and increase quality of life. (2010)Mobile operators will focus on corporate services. Mobile service costs will replace constant usage costs.
System SecuritySystem Security
DRIVING FORCESStandardizationin SW technology
Mergers and consolidations in security software market
CHALLENGESNGSCB of Microsoft will be security standart in 3 years
AI, bayesian based learning techniquesHardware basedsolutions’ quality/cost inequlibirum(min 4 years)Cost effectivity of hardwaresolutions
Software itself will not be able to meet increasing system security requirements completely. Securitysoftwares will be supported by hardware solutions. Complete solutions including antivirus, attack recognitfirewall will be produced. There will be more customer/service provider relations in security software mark
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Networked and Downloadable WorldNetworked and Downloadable WorldNetworks, applications and hardwares will be united.%70 of industries will be carried to e-business .Broadband connections of gigabyte will be available even at home. By internet based content distribution asoftwares and digital content (information, document, data and image) will be downloadable in 2010.Operating systems and PC processor performance abilities will not be important anymore. Entertainment,movie and music industries will be reshaped. CD, related hardware and material supplier industry will get incrisis.IP based communication will be the mostly used telecommunication tool in 10 years
DRIVING FORCESWide usageof Broadbandtechnologies (usage= X 3 in 2009).Automatically controlled Optical networks and Passive optical networking
Wirelessnetworks (usage=X 4 in 2006, 30 million people in 2007)Users directing the evolution of wireless world with their demandsCost effecitivity of Wi-max (in mobile phones2007,laptops in 2008)Mobile technologiesNDC’s where earth lines are not mature and too expensive
Smart networks, SmartcardsSatellite connectionsAdvancements in Grid computingWeb services with standart protocols, free from platforms like XMLDevelopments in internet protocols
CHALLENGESProblems with high temperaturedconductorsImmaturity of wireless networks to replacewired networks till2009Security problem in wireless communicationAttacks on internet terrorist (An attack to internet expected in10 years)Internet crimes
Piracyon downloadable contentNo backup of internet, not possible to create one before 2015Immaturity of grid computing to alternate internetDifficulties in dynamic IP and expandinginternet backbonefor .mobiContent management
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Cyber-Big BrotherCyber-Big Brother
DRIVING FORCESInternational instable political climateinnovation abilities of local industry in a competition- free environmentQuantum cryptography
CHALLENGESLimitation on the privacy of individualsBlockingapplications of nongovernmental bodiesNo international marketCyber attacks empowered by wider broadband.
There will be Cyber wars.and there will be cyber attacks to firms of enemy countries and their partners. Warmanagement and techniques will change, mobile troops will be able to share tactical information in real timeNational intelligence units will be monitoring citizens realtime and everywhere. Digitalization of security foand intelligence units will l imit the privacy of individuals. Messaging groups will be monitored. There will discussions on ethical issues. Nongovernmental bodies will reject and resist to these systems
e-Governmente-Government
e-Learninge-Learning
Digitalization of government and rural administrations will increase digital content. Governmental bodies wbe effectively integrated and improve their bureucracy and process productivity. IT and digitalization of governmental and political bodies will cause social reformations. For example, in election periods, citizenconsultancy web sites integrating elections surveys and political party programmes and comparing them wicitizen’s expectations will be used. This will improve democratic systems.
DRIVING FORCESContent management, portal structures
CHALLENGESReengineeringneedfor processes of education
Education systems will be powered by virtual classrooms and distributed learning. Educational content willmanaged and improved by content management systems and will be available in internet. By this way,educational knowledge management will improve the intellectual accumulation.
CHALLENGESReengineeringneedfor processes of government bodies
DRIVING FORCESDigital contentContent management , portal structures
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E-BusinessE-Business
On the road, on the netOn the road, on the net
DRIVING FORCES
New generations grown up with internetContent management, portals (market=3.1 billion USDin 2006)
CHALLENGES
Reengineeringneedfor processesWorkers’ Unions resisting automationsubstitutionSecurity problem with electronic payment systems
E-business will double productivity/efficiency per hour within 25 years. US consumers will spend 133 billioUSD to e-trade. Online shopping will be doubled in 5 years. LDC’s will face the threat of loosing their existibusiness volume and staying out of the global economy if they cannot carry their industries to web basedwork processes of B2B and B2C. Bargaining sites and second hand virtual markets will transform shoppingattitudes and threaten electronic, consumer goods industries. Increase in B2B portal sites of SMSC’s willimprove producers’ unions. By the development of e-trade, global firms will close their sales branches abroand this will cause loss of jobs and foreign investment in LDC’s.
DRIVING FORCESDevelopment of retailing applications
CHALLENGESReengineeringneedfor processesIntegration with automative andtransport technologies
Transport telematics will develop, vehicles will communicate with each other and roads, road / trafficmanagement centres, oil stations, hospitals etc. This will reduce accident rates and improve traffic. Technicaproblems will be sent to vehicle producers real time.
CRM (Customer Relations Management)CRM (Customer Relations Management)
DRIVING FORCESDevelopment of retailing applications
CHALLENGESReengineeringneedfor processes
integrated. Calls that are recorded and archived in Call Centers will be transformed to datas supporting CRCRM and marketing/sales automation will replace active sales and CRM and call center cervices will be
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ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning)ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning)
DRIVING FORCESMaturemarket (total global market 5.7 billions USD2008)Country of origin effect
CHALLENGESGlobal Firms monopoly (%50 market share). Microsoft aimsto be dominant by 2010.Reengineering needfor processes
Next generation ERP packages will be integrated and united with CRM, SCM applications. Open source ERPpackages will enable small and medium sized companies to increase their quality / productivity and
competitiveness. Customers will pay only for service and maintanance of ERP’s . Consolidations and mergebetween solution providers of ERP’s will empower monopoly in the market . Country of origin effect on ERchoice will continue to be dominant with global firms using their home country origined ERP’s in their offshore units. ERP investments will increase in retaling, consumer goods, telecom, CPG/FMCG andlogistics/distribution industries. ERP’s will be upgraded with the developments in processors.
Retailing and SCM (Supply Chain Management)Retailing and SCM (Supply Chain Management)
CHALLENGESGlobal Firms imposing ERP integrationsReengineeringneedfor processesVeryhighvolumes of data
Products and producers , CRM applications, transport telematics will be communicating with eachother andproducts will be monitored till the end of product life. The basic consepts of consumer goods and retailingindustry will change. This monitoring will threaten the privacy of consumers and cause ethical discussions
DatabasesDatabasesObject relational databases will develop and widely used.
Distributed databases will be critically important.
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M o b i l eh umA n
r e s o ur c e s 1
M o b i l i eh um
an
r e s o ur c e s 2
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o p enw or l d
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I n t el l i g en c e
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M y d o c t or
b e s i d em
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t h er o a d
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pl a y gr o un d
T OT A L
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RFID, NFC DF DF DF DF
VoIP Df
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Opensource DF DF DF DF
Multimedia DF DF
DF DF
C
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SystemSecurity DF C C C C C
Embedded softwares DF DF
Neural networks DF DF
Simulation DF DF
Holographic imaging DF DF
e-learning DF
Videoconference DF DF
Digital animation DF DF DFQuantumcomputing DF
Virtual reality DF DF DF
Data,voice image int. DF
DF
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Artificial Intelligence DF DF
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GridComputing
Broadband DF
Distributed softwaredevelopments
C
Mobile technologies
Processors
Datamining/warehouse
TECHNOLOGICAL DRIVING FORCES (DF) AND CHALLENTECHNOLOGICAL DRIVING FORCES (DF) AND CHALLENSCENARIOS
SOFTWARE
TECHNOLOGIES
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SWOT FOR TURKEY SWOTFOR TURKEY STRENGTHS OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN COMMON
Cheap work-forceSPECIFIC STRENGTHS OF TURKEY
Young populationEntrepreneurship courage of local firmsHigh rate of cellular phone usagePowerfull local GSM Operators
National IT general assemblyPositive business climate with Turki republics
OPPORTUNITIES FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN COMMONOpen source code and community
Grid computingDeveloper communitiesBenchmarking with other countriesSmart translation softwares
SPECIFIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR TURKEY
Technoparks and technocitiesEU candidate membership processEfforts of Linux Community on national open source operatingsystem (ULUDAG Project)Opposite brain drain
“ Turquality” projectSW quality studies of national quality organizations and academyEffective and innovative local electronics producers
THREATS FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN COMMODigital divideEconomic instability of CountryGlobal firmsDifficulties in outsourcing and export due to lack ofsoftware standartsBrain drain
Increase in imports due to lack local hardware andmobile device industry,Loss of jobs by automation
SPECIFIC THREATS FOR TURKEY
Political lobbies of global firms in governmentGlobal firms trying to buy local GSM OperatorsIncontinuity of S&T policies and programmes due toPolitical instabilityRestrictions on R&D and innovation funds andincentives due to strict national saving programmesimposed by IMFPolitical intervention and staff assignments of government to national Science and TechnologyInstitution (TUBITAK)Resistance to methodologic work as a part of national culture – Turkish way of working
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SWOT FOR TURKEY SWOT FOR TURKEY SPECIFIC WEAKNESSES OF TURKEY• Dependency of academy to governmental bodies-YOK,• Insufficient regulations and legal frame for Telecom
industry, failure in privatization of Telecom• Alphabetical differences• Too many sectoral NGO’s, no synergy
• High piracy rate (%58)• Foreign language incompetency• “ Parrot fashioned” basic education without IT tools• No mature professional organization on software• Incompetencein methodological work, project managemen
quality planning and management, testing and control:“ Turkish way of working”
• Insufficient consultancy• Immature local developer communities• Limited participation in global developer communities
• Unconscious users with unrealistic expectations
WEAKNESSES OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN COMMON• Follower of technology, incompetent on technology
adaptation and innovation in national level• Low PC/internet penetration• Insufficient IT infrastructure and broadband connection• No leadership of government• Ineffective bureaucracy and regulations• Insufficient human resources• Limited financial resources due to low national income• Ineffective and inapplicable national S&T policies• Lack of future research on cr itical technologies• In effective academic and educational policies
• Weak links between educational/academic policies andnational S&T programmes and ,industrial needs
• No competency of academy and industry for followingcritical technological trends
• No multidisciplinary framework
• Immature local market, lack of large scale local firms• No competency in interacting technologies• No local hardware/mobile device producer firms• Weak country brand• Lack of competency in marketing and brand creation
• No national software standards, no national plan to design• Insufficient management, organization, human resources
management abilities
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SWOT FOR TURKEY ON SOFTWARE TYPESSWOT FOR TURKEY ON SOFTWARE TYPESSoftware type Existing Production
in TurkeyFutureopportunity
Potentialof Turkey
National security and defence HighLowLow
Low
LowLow
Low
Low
Low
High
System Security Low High Medium
Business Intelligence and Analytics Low High Low
Content/Knowledge/Document/Multimedia Management Low High Low
Smart/Intelligent software – Middlewares Low High Low
Multimedia/Imaging/sound and image processing Medium High Medium
Embedded softwares Medium High High
System (operating system, database, web/mail/server/ dns, servers, system management) Low High Low
Medium
High HighHealth/medical High Medium
Logistics/transportation/tourism High Low
E-Government High High
ERP Medium LowSCM High Low
CRM High Low
Education, E-learning High Medium
E-Business High Medium
Finance/Accounting/Banking Medium High
Entertainment, digital animation, Games High High
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POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR TURKEY POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR TURKEY Effective and applicable National Science and Technology Policies:
based on the findings of scientific future research s tudies like technology foresightIncluding applicable improvement programmes for critical and opportunity promising technologiesR&D and innovation programmes and supports for specific critical fields of defined critical technologies.basis for educational/academic policies and national employment policiesRestructured and autonomous of National Science and Technology Institutions
National Information Technology Institution including a software focused unitNational software standards
Privatization or reorganization of Turkish Telecom
Corporation of academy and industry
Improvement programmes for developing technoparks/technocities
United sectoral organizations under a confederation structure,
Open source code accepted as a national strategic choice
National open source operating system
Establishment of national software professional organizations
Restructuring basic education improving analytic thinking,mathematical competencies,logical understanding, IT familiaDesign and implementation of effective regulations and funds to protect local industry, competitive environment againsglobal firms, attract foreign investment, outsourcing and insourcing.
Autonomous Universities
Improvement of academic education and professional training programmes on software development including businessrelated competencies