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Marine Meteorology DivisionDirector
Dr. Sung Hyup You
KMA
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Severe Marine Weather in Korea
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[Over the last decade]
ㅇ Caused yearly $ 1.7 billion in property damage and$ 2.7 billion in disaster recovery (0.7% of the total national budget)
ㅇ Main Causes: Typhoons: 60%, Heavy rain: 27%, Heavy Snow: 12%...
ㅇ Recently, damage by Asian Dust, fine(ultrafine) dust, heat wave, cold wave, fog and drought have a growing impact on people and industries, and have become new social issues.
⇒ Rapidly increasing demands for Met. Services from the nation and the public
3
Losses by natural disasters duringthe last 10 years in Korea
typhoon(60%)
typhoon(60%)
Heavy rain(27%)
Heavy rain(27%)
Heavy snow(12%)
Others(1%)
Damage : 1.7 billion $ /year
Restoration : 2.7 billion $ /year
Causes of damage
Damage by Meteorological Disasters
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A: Typhoon occurred in Northwestern Pacific OceanK: Typhoon effected on the Korean Peninsula
Average No. of Typhoon
1951-2018: 26.21989-2018: 25.42009-2018: 24.5
MonthCase
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total
A 30 17 27 48 68 122 267 376 336 252 160 79 1782
K 0 0 0 0 3 23 70 74 43 5 0 0 218
1951-2018
0
10
20
30
40
50
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Num
ber o
f TC
Year
Annual TC in the western North Pacific
Climatology: 1951-2018(68 years)
+1.0 S.D.
Ave. 26.2
-1.0 S.D.
Occurrence Frequency of Typhoon
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• Phenomenon
• Observation• Prediction
• Service
Marine Meteorological POPSÒ
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Phenomenon
Marine Meteorological POPSÒ
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Spring : Meteotsunami, Abnormal Wave
Juk-do, West Sea of Korea,
4. May. 2008.(9 casualties)
Marine Meteorological Disasters (Spring)
12:37:48
12:38:46
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Marine Meteorological Disasters (Spring)
Pressure Jump
Meteotsunami Simulation by COMCOT
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Pressure
Meteotsunami Predictionby FVCOM
Marine Meteorological Disasters (Spring)
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Rip Current accident(2012)
Marine Meteorological Disasters (Summer)
Haeundae Beach, Busan, Korea
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Summer : Rip Current
Rip Current Prediction by 3 hour IntervalHaeundae Beach, Busan, Korea
4 Warning Stages
SafeCautionDanger
Very Danger
Marine Meteorological Disasters (Summer)
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Fall : Low Salinity WaterJeju Island (2. Aug. 2010)
• Low Salinity : 25.4~28 psu alongwestern coast of Jeju Island
Marine Meteorological Disasters (Fall)
Low salinity water discharge prediction by ROMS model
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Winter : Swell
Inundation due to Swell
(10. Jan. 2009, 5 Casualties)
Marine Meteorological Disasters (Winter)High waves by low pressure
Swell by standinglow pressure
Eastern Coast of Korea
Wave Spectrum Separation by WaveWATCH III
Windsea
Swell
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Numerical Ocean ModelingObservation
Marine Meteorological POPSÒ
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Marine Observations Network(Spatial)
Near Coastal Offshore High
SeasCoastal
Wave Radar
Coastal Long Wave Monitoring
Light House
AWS
Coastal Wave Buoy
Observation Vessel
‘Gisang 1’
Ocean Data
BuoyVOS
Vessel AWS
Port Weather Monitoring
Black Box Image on Ocean Data Buoy (BuoyCAM)
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Marine Observations Network(Temporal)
Observation Vessel‘Gisang 1’
Coastal Long Wave Monitoring
Wave Radar
0.5sec
5 minutes
30min~1hour
4-5times/day
2times/day
Coastal Wave Buoy
Ocean Data Buoy
VOS
Vessel AWS
Coastal Offshore High Sea
Drifting Buoy, Wave Glider
Vessel AWS
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Drifting Buoy (Offshore)v Lagrangian observationv GPS, Satellite Communication v Observation : Position, Sea Temperature, Pressure, Wave
<Comparison of Pressure between AWS and buoy >
17km
AWS
Drifter
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Vessel AWS (High Seas)v AWS on Vessel of Government and Passenger Ship
Government Ship VOS (Volunteer Observing Ship)
Korea Coastal Guard 32 ships
Passenger Ship
Ferry ship
New Golden Bridge V
Dain Ferry
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Prediction
Marine Meteorological POPSÒ
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NWP model based on Unified Model (UM)
Global Medium-range Prediction (GDAPS / Global EPS)
• Deterministic: UM 17km L70 / T+288hrs (00/12UTC), T+87hrs (06/18UTC) / Hybrid ENS-4DVAR
• Ensemble: UM 32km L70 / T+288hrs (00/12UTC) / 24 Members / Perturb. : ETKF, RP, SKEB2
Short-range Prediction (E-Asia) (RDAPS)
• UM 12km L70 / T+87hrs (6 hourly) / 4DVAR
/ Deterministic(Very) Short-range Prediction
• Deterministic : UM 1.5km L70 /
(LDAPS)T+36hrs (6 hourly) / 3DVAR (3
hourly)
(VDAPS)T+12hrs (1 hourly) / 3DVAR (1
hourly)
• Ensemble : UM 3km L70 / T+72hrs
(LENS)
Seasonal Prediction System (Glosea5)
• GloSea5 / 60km L85 / 60, 220days
• Atmosphere(UM)+Ocean(NEMO, 30km)
Global Medium-range Prediction (GDAPS / Global EPS)
• Deterministic: UM 10km L70 / T+288hrs (00/12UTC), T+87hrs (06/18UTC) / Hybrid ENS-4DVAR
• Ensemble: UM 32km L70 / T+288hrs (00/12UTC) / 24 Members / Perturb. : ETKF, RP, SKEB2
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Global, Regional UMSea Surface Wind & MSLP
Global, Regional Wave Model
(GWW3: 60km , RWW3: 8km)
Regional Storm Surge Model(RTSM : 8km)
Coastal RegionSea Surface Wind Model
Tide Coeff. DB
Coastal Storm Surge Model(CTSM : 1km)
Coastal Wave Model(CWW3: 1km)
Wave/Storm Surges Forecasting System
Tide Mode
l
Bathymetry DBBathymetry DB
Logical Depth DB
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Operational Wind Wave Prediction Models
Regional• 8Km (1/12°)• 87 hour forecast twice/day
Coastal• 1km (1/120°)• 72 hour forecast twice/day• 6 coastal domains
Global• 60Km (1/2°)• 288 hour forecast twice/day
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2006 Typhoon EWINIAR
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Global
Regional
RMSE : 0.3~0.5m
RMSE : 0.4~0.7m
Wave Model Verification2008-2018
2005-2018
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25
Upgraded Wave Models (Oct. 2016)
OLD NEW
Version vn2.22 vn4.18
Atmosphericinput
- GWW3: GDAPS 10m Wind (6-hourly) 3-hourly
- RWW3/CWW3: RDAPS 10m Wind (3-hourly)
Boundary condition
- RWW3: None- CWW3: RWW3
- RWW3: GWW3- CWW3: RWW3
Input & dissipation
source termsTolman & Chalikov(1996) WAM cycle 4 (ST4)
Depth-induced breaking None Implementation
Wind wave/Swell
None Separation
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26
Verification of RWW3
Forecast time (hr)
0 12 24 36 48 60 72
Bia
s (m
)
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
RWW3(OP) RWW3(NEW)
Forecast time (hr)
0 12 24 36 48 60 72
RM
SE (m
)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
RWW3(OP) RWW3(NEW)
6% ↑(48hr10%↑)
SUMMER
Forecast time (hr)
0 12 24 36 48 60 72
Bia
s (m
)
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
RWW3(OP) RWW3(NEW)
Forecast time (hr)
0 12 24 36 48 60 72
RM
SE (m
)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
RWW3(OP) RWW3(NEW)
WINTER
3% ↑(48hr 6%↑)
26
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27
Wave Data Assimilation by 2D-OI
2-D Optimal Interpolation
Model Initial Spectra
Model First Guess Spectra ),( qfEp
),( qfEA
Model First Guess Sig. Wave Height
Buoy Measured Sig. Wave Height
Analyzed Sig. Wave Height
ReWW3 without assimilation ReWW3 with buoy assimilation
3 hour interval/day 30 minutes/day
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28
Ensemble Wave Model Guidance
EPSgram
Ensemble meanProbability(Sig.Wave > 3m)
Ensemble Wave Prediction (24members)
Gridded prediction (Homepage service)
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29
Ensemble Model Verification
forecast time (hr)0 24 48 72
RMSE
(m)
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5RWW3 operensemble mean 12%↑
4%↓5%↑
forecast time (hr)0 24 48 72
Bias
(m)
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
RWW3 operensemble mean
forecast time (hr)0 24 48 72
RMSE
(m)
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5RWW3 operensemble mean
forecast time (hr)0 24 48 72
Bias
(m)
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
RWW3 operensemble mean
forecast time (hr)0 24 48 72
Bias
(m)
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
RWW3 operensemble mean
forecast time (hr)0 24 48 72
RMSE
(m)
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5RWW3 operensemble mean
WinterWinter
WinterWinter
SummerSummer
SummerSummer
3%↑
8%↓
5%↑
21%↑
2%↓
13%↑
MeanMean
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Global, Regional UMSea Surface Wind & MSLP
Global, Regional Wave Model
(GWW3: 60km , RWW3: 8km)
Regional Storm Surge Model(RTSM : 8km)
Coastal RegionSea Surface Wind Model
Tide Coeff. DB
Coastal Storm Surge Model(CTSM : 1km)
Coastal Wave Model(CWW3: 1km)
Wave/Storm Surges Forecasting System
Tide Mode
l
Bathymetry DBBathymetry DB
Logical Depth DB
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Coastal Model (1km Resolution)
Regional Model (8km)
Boundary ConditionPOM Model base
Storm Surges Forecasting System
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New Storm Surges Forecasting System(2019)
Contents Regional Storm Surge Model
Model POM → NEMO v3.6
Domain 115°E - 150°E , 20°N - 52°N
Resolution(Grid) 1/12° × 1/12°(421 × 385)
Prediction Time 3days → 5days (120 hours)
Initial Condition Output of - 12 hour
Boundary Condition 13 Tidal components
Input Data GDAPS(UM N1280 L70)
Prediction Interval 2times/day (00, 12UTC)
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Model Verification (Old vs New)
August September October
19%↑28%↑21%↑
14%↑15%↑17%↑18%↑1.4%↓3%↓ 8%↑ 9%↑
18%↑ 11%↑11%↑19%↑16%↑
3months Average
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Typhoon Chaba(2016)
Haeundae Marine City, Busan, Korea
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Total Water Level Elevation (TWLE)
TWLE Sea Winds
Tidal variation
CurrentStorm SurgeStorm Tide
Wind Waves
Wave Run upWave Setup
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TWLE Prediction (Ocean Monitoring System)
Tide
Storm Surge
Wave Runup
TWLE
Wave Setup
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Service
Marine Meteorological POPSÒ
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ShipsShips
LRIT Broadcast
SDUS Antenna/LNB
SDR Mini PC
USER
Wifi
Smart Phone Web Service
Marine Weather Broadcast Service by Satellite (GK2A)
1 Area
2 Area
3 Area
Possible Coverage
GK2A
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Ocean Portal Service (marine.kma.go.kr)
Port Sea route Leisure Fishery Disaster Security
Port LeisureRoute53 ports 65 Sea RoutesFish : 68 pointsSurfing : 23 points
Fishery Disaster SecuritySST : 77 stations Fog, Swell, Rip current 50km grid
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Port WeatherPort Weather
Smartphone Web Service
http://marine.kma.go.kr (Korean)
Sea RouteSea Route
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Various Applications of KMA’s Marine Weather Products and Services
Prevent maritime accidents
Support fishers
Prevent ocean pollution
Marine logistics
Military operations
Disaster Prevention
Fishery/Resources
Environment National Security
Logistics
Marine weather information creates socio-economic efficiency by providing criticalinformation essential for disaster prevention, fishery, logistics, tourism, national security, environment, etc.
Plan for marine construction
Marine Construction
Tourism/Leisure
Vitalize marine leisure industry
Improve HIW prediction capacity
Meteorology
Multi-Disciplinary Applications
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Watching the Sky friendlyServing the People faithfully
Thank you