Download - zerocarbonbritain2030 general
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In collaboration with…
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Universities
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Industry
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Research Centres
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• zerocarbonbritain2030 is the first fully integrated solution to climate change.
• It offers a positive, realistic vision grounded in the latest climate science.
• It provides political, economic and technological solutions to the urgent challenges raised in tackling climate change
What is zerocarbonbritain2030
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• Big, structural change rather than small incremental reductions
• No False Starts or dead ends
• 80% target might mean we cant get to 100%
• No Offsets, all local solutions
• No Silver bullet technologies. We rely on established methods
What is zerocarbonbritain2030
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Alternative Decarbonisation
Time
Emissions
Andersen (ish)
Basic
Aim
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We need a plan!!!
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Narrative
• Stop climate chaos, don’t fly, don’t drive, turn
off, climate Apocalypse, climate disaster
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Promised Land
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THE YAWNING CHASM
POLITICAL REALISM PHYSICAL REALISM
FURIOUS ACTIVITY
ZCB
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A
BPhysically feasible
decarbonised worlds
You are here
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Exploring synergy
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Scope: Greenhouse Gasses
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Our wellbeing depends on:
• Climate equity
• Energy progressive
• Economic stability
• International cooperation
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• Global emissions must cut by 72% from 1990 levels by 2050 for an 84% chance of avoiding two degrees warming.
(Meinshausen - 2009)
Climate Equity
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Equity - taking a global lead
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• Britain, as a historical polluter, must make deeper, faster cuts to account for our ecological debt.
• This allows developing countries shallower decarbonisation path
Climate Equity
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Damage to the environment, security and livelihoods by the Fossil Fuel industry
Energy Progressive
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Energy Security
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Economic Security
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• Estimates indicate replacing North Sea extraction with imports would add £53 billion to the UK annual trade deficit in 2030
• In addition the Exchequer raised nearly £13 billion from offshore oil & gas in 2008
Economic Security
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• 56% reduction in energy use by 2030
• Sector by Sector:– Built environment– Transport– Land-use– Industry– Behaviour
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• Domestic approx 30% total emissions2030 - reduce energy use (heating & lighting) by 80%
• Non-domestic 25% of total emissions2030 - 37% reduction in emissions
UK Buildings are incredibly inefficient
Built environment
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• Natural materials low embodied energy & sequestration
• Insulating - large-scale retro-fit programme.
• Heat pumps• Thermal Comfort
woolley jumpers• Energy Service
Companies (ESCO’s)
Built environment
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• Change of energy source from fossil fuels
• Electrification of cars, trains & LGV’s
• Modal shift - private car to public transport, walking and cycling
• Reduction in passenger km
Electric cars get a makeover
Transport - overview
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• No domestic aviation, 1/3 international on current levels
• High speed electric train network
• Indigenous bioenergy & hydrogen to power HGV’s and planes
Why don’t we have these in the UK?
Transport
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NOW 2030
Transport - modes (km)
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• Power Down - Sources of emissions related to land and how to reduce
• Power Up - Use of land in a low carbon energy system
Land use
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• Food - more local production of staples
• Sequestration - forest sinks, timber for building
• Fuel - for transport & backup
Land use
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• 80% reduction of livestock products, particularly red meat and dairy
• This mix closely matches the recommendations for a healthy diet
Diet
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Land use emissions - now
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Land use emissions - zcb2030
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• Food security• Food quality• Biodiversity • Rural life and livelihoods
Benefits
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Energy Archaic
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Current energy system
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• All our energy needs, at all times, can be met with 100% renewables
• We can meet the challenges of variability
• We’ve only used proven technologies
Powering up
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• Britain has 40% of Europe's renewable resource in offshore wind
• What is the value of this resource?
• It has the potential to inject billions of pounds into the UK economy
Tomorrow£196,000
Powering up - offshore wind
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Tomorrow£196,000
Powering up - potential
Source: PIRC Offshore Evaluation
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• Revitalisation of industry, resulting in thousands of jobs
• Upgrading of ports
• World leader in renewable technology
• Exports of up to 17% earning £7bn annually
Tomorrow£196,000
Powering up - offshore wind
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Offshore wind
Delivered Electricity 2030
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Offshore wind
Heat pumps
Electricity, heat and transport 2030
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• More stable & predictable energy price:
not dependent on international markets & dwindling supply
• No feedstock - more secure supply
• Green jobs - hundreds of thousands in manufacture and
service
• Improved air quality
Powering up - advantages
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• Demand-side management
• New renewables capitalising mechanisms - upfront vs
ongoing cost & discount rates
• Changes to TNUoS, DNUoS & BSUoS - make beneficial for renewables
• Variable electricity pricing - smart meters
• Behavioural change - energy education
Powering up - associated mechanisms
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• Smart grids• Limited use of biogas
- expensive backup• EU Super-grid• Thermal-mass of building stock
Variability managed by
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• High Voltage DC Grid
• Linking up the offshore wind-farms
• Also linking the winter wind to the summer sun
EU Energy network
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• Not mutually inclusive with renewables• Effective for lower emissions reductions• Minimise losses (7%)• Can be expensive - system & storage• Need access to suitable renewables
- warning: biofuels
Micro-grids
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Heat
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• Internationally binding deal involving cap on emissions
• High carbon price - £200 - £400/tonne CO2(e)
• A mix of national policy options that allow equitable access to energy for all
• Deliberate reconstruction of the UK economy to one that is stable, resilient and exists within the world’s ecological limits.
Framework - policy
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• Hundreds of thousands
of new jobs
• Builders, engineers,
manufacturing
• More predictable
energy price
• Setting a global lead….
Framework - a Green New Deal
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Now
2030
Getting there…
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• Providing a positive vision for the future
• Give shape to a renewable future
• Develop the synergies between sectors
• Plan for big infrastructural changes
Report to reality
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