downtown happy valley retail market assessment january 2010

Downtown Happy Valley Retail Market Assessment January 2010

Downtown Happy Valley Retail Market Assessment i

Table of Contents

Introduction...................................................................................... 1

Section 1: Retail Market Analysis................................................... 3

Section 2: Consumer Research..................................................... 9

Section 3: Conclusions.................................................................. 10

Appendix A: Demographic Profile ............................................. 12

Appendix B: Retail Demands...................................................... 18

Appendix C: Shopper Survey Results ........................................ 22

Acknowledgement

The Downtown Happy Valley Retail Market Assessment was funded by the

Clackamas County Main Street Program.

Downtown Happy Valley Retail Market Assessment 1

Introduction

Clackamas County contracted with Marketek, Inc. to conduct this retail assessment. For purposes of this research sponsored by the Clackamas County Main Street Program, the 22-acre Happy Valley Town Center

Development at SE Sunnyside Road and 162nd Avenue is viewed as the community’s downtown commercial district. At the heart of downtown

Happy Valley’s long term success is its ability to offer residents, visitors and employees a welcoming environment and a shopping and entertainment experience unlike what they find elsewhere. The purpose of this retail

market overview is to initiate a market-based business development strategy that addresses Happy Valley’s desire to have a strong and vital downtown and overall commercial base.

Downtown Program Approach Although Happy Valley does not have an operational Main Street Program, it should be noted that the research focuses on one of the four

key elements of Main Street – Economic Restructuring.

Downtown Programs are often organized according to the Main Street Approach, which focuses on four critical components

for creating downtown success and vitality: Promotion/Identity Building,

Design/ Physical Improvements, Economic Development and Organization.

1) Promotions/Identity Building: Identify, develop and promote the

image and promise of downtown by marketing its unique characteristics to shoppers, investors, new businesses and visitors. Create an effective promotion strategy to forge this positive image.

Create an atmosphere of fun and activity. 2) Design/Physical: Capitalize on and improve downtown’s physical

assets. Create an inviting atmosphere to convey a visual message about the comfort and vibrancy of downtown. Increase the utility and

user-friendly quality of downtown. 3) Economic Restructuring: Support existing and attract new downtown

businesses to respond to the current market. Balance business mix and provide amenities for all shoppers. Convert unused space into

productive property. Sharpen the competitiveness of all businesses.


4) Organization: Establish common goals for downtown’s development, and build and organize consensus and cooperation among

downtown stakeholders.

Project Purpose The purpose of this analysis is to:

♦ Provide an assessment of potential market support for retail uses in the downtown Happy Valley commercial district.

♦ Create a snapshot of Happy Valley’s

retail sector including an overview of consumer preferences, needs and buying patterns; and opportunities and

challenges for growth and development in the downtown.

♦ Provide Main Street Happy Valley with a factual basis for developing

strategies to strengthen and diversify the downtown retail base and

capture more consumer spending. ♦ Recommend business development strategies to strengthen the

downtown retail base.

Project Methodology As downtown Happy Valley’s retail expansion efforts will be implemented

over time, the market analysis considers a ten-year timeframe from 2010 to 2020, which is a realistic projection period for retail development.

Research, both primary and secondary, includes: ♦ Statistical estimates of potential supportable retail space in downtown;

♦ Community-wide surveys of resident/employee shopping preferences; ♦ Interviews with business owners and local government representatives

and ♦ Site visits to Happy Valley and the surrounding area.

This report is organized into the following sections: 1) Retail Market Analysis

2) Consumer Research 3) Conclusions


Retail Market Analysis

This section outlines Happy Valley’s key retail target markets and provides an estimate of existing and future support of retail space in the Happy Valley market area.

A. TARGET MARKET ANALYSIS Downtown Happy Valley has the potential to serve and attract sales from local residents, area employees and visitors. The market segments that

will serve as the most dependable sources of shoppers on a regular basis – residents and employees – are characterized below.

Local Resident Market Based upon the patronage of existing businesses, downtown Happy Valley’s location within the region, its competitive assets and proposed redevelopment activity, Marketek delineated a custom-drawn market

area, modeled after the Happy Valley school district, as shown on the map below. For comparative purposes, demographic data are also

presented for the City of Happy Valley, the Portland Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) and the State of Oregon.

Happy Valley Market Area


As of 2009, population within the Happy Valley Market Area was estimated at 71,395 persons and 25,033 households (Exhibit 1). Since 2000,

the market area experienced strong population and household growth, with average annual rates of 3.1% and 3.0%, respectively (or an average

of 1,736 additional persons and 593 additional households per year). These rates outpaced those of the MSA and state, but were below those of the City of Happy Valley, which annexed additional land since 2000.

The city added a total of 6,946 persons and 2,200 households over the last nine years.

Over the next five years, growth rates in the market area are projected to slow, although they should still surpass those of the MSA and state. The

market area is expected to reach 78,831 persons and 27,617 households by 2014, an increase of 7,436 persons and 2,584 households over 2009.

Exhibit 1. Demographic Snapshot, 2009

NA = Not Available. Sources: ESRI BIS; Portland State University Population Research Center

Demographic City of Happy Valley Portland State of

Indicator Happy Valley Market Area MSA Oregon

Population

2009 (estimate) 11,465 71,395 2,233,323 3,841,859

2014 (forecast) 13,534 78,831 2,396,625 4,064,906

Avg. Ann. % Change ('00 to '09) 17.08% 3.11% 1.76% 1.37%

Avg. Ann. % Change ('09 to '14) 3.61% 2.08% 1.46% 1.16%

Households

2009 (estimate) 3,631 25,033 857,304 1,495,911

2014 (forecast) 4,295 27,617 919,054 1,584,044

Avg. Ann. % Change ('00 to '09) 17.08% 3.01% 1.67% 1.35%

Avg. Ann. % Change ('09 to '14) 3.66% 2.06% 1.44% 1.18%

Average Household Size 3.16 2.83 2.56 2.51

Median Household Income NA $68,298 $62,166 $53,483

Median Age (Years) NA 35.7 36.3 38.0

Race

Percent White Alone NA 80.5% 81.5% 83.7%

Percent Other Race/2+ Races NA 19.5% 18.5% 16.3%

Percent Hispanic NA 7.1% 10.3% 11.2%

Homeownership NA 71.4% 62.7% 64.0%

Educational Attainment

Associate Degree NA 8.5% 8.0% 7.7%

Associate Degree NA 26.8% 31.5% 27.7%


Average household size is highest in the city (3.2 persons per household), compared to averages of 2.8 persons in the market area and 2.5 in the

MSA and state. In terms of tenure, market area households are more likely to own their homes than households in other geographies.

Homeownership in the market area is estimated at 71.4% versus 63-64% in the MSA and state.

Median household income in the market area is on par with that of the MSA at $68,298 and $62,166, respectively. Median income within the City

of Happy Valley, however, is estimated at nearly double that of the MSA ($118,118), although an updated figure following the City’s most recent annexation is unavailable.

Age trends are similar in each geography – median ages range from 35.7 years in the market area to 38.0 years statewide. In terms of racial

composition, the majority of the population in all three geographies is white (about 80%). Asians/Pacific Islanders make up 10.3% in the market

area compared to 4.1% statewide. Hispanic persons, in contrast, constitute higher a share of the population at the state level (11.2%) than in the market area (7.1%). Detailed charts characterizing the market area

population are provided in Appendix A.

Employee Market An estimated 1,987 businesses operate within the Happy Valley Market

Area and employ more than 21,500 persons (Exhibit 2). By far, the largest sector is the healthcare industry, which employs 6,169 persons, or 28.5%.

Other service employment makes up 18.3%, followed by retail trade with 14.8%.

Employees working in and near downtown Happy Valley are an

important captive market for retail, service and entertainment business. Research conducted by

the Building Owners and Managers Association of America estimates that office workers spend 10-15% of

their expendable income in and near their places of work. Top

spending categories include restaurants, entertainment, cards and gifts, personal care items and

books and magazines.


Exhibit 2. Business & Employment, Happy Valley Market Area, 2009

Source: ESRI BIS

B. RETAIL DEMAND POTENTIAL Marketek estimated potential demand for additional retail, restaurant and entertainment space in downtown Happy Valley based on existing and

future market area resident spending. In each case, spending potential by merchandise type was converted to square feet of store space based

on sales per square foot standards derived from the Urban Land Institute’s Dollars and Cents of Shopping Centers.

Resident demand is derived from two sources. The first, “existing demand,” is demand for retail goods by current market area households that is now being met outside the market area. Existing demand is found

by comparing the retail supply (i.e., actual retail sales) with retail demand (i.e., the expected amount spent by market area residents based on

consumer expenditure patterns). When demand outweighs supply, a leakage occurs, indicating that consumers are spending outside of the market area for some retail goods or services. While consumers will always

do a certain amount of shopping away from home, this comparison

Industry # % # %

Agriculture & Mining 40 2.0% 223 1.0%

Construction 338 17.0% 1,450 6.7%

Manufacturing 110 5.5% 1,778 8.2%

Transportation 48 2.4% 551 2.5%

Communication 7 0.4% 67 0.3%

Electric/Gas/Water/Sanitary Services 8 0.4% 47 0.2%

Wholesale Trade 158 8.0% 1,710 7.9%

Retail Trade 301 15.1% 3,195 14.8%

Finance/Insurance/Real Estate 200 10.1% 1,312 6.1%

Services 669 33.7% 10,129 46.8%

Hotels & Lodging 5 0.3% 168 0.8%

Automotive Repair, Services, Parking 58 2.9% 181 0.8%

Motion Picture & Amusements 34 1.7% 139 0.6%

Healthcare 97 4.9% 6,169 28.5%

Legal 8 0.4% 21 0.1%

Education Institutions & Libraries 31 1.6% 1,030 4.8%

Other Services 436 21.9% 2,421 11.2%

Government 23 1.2% 1,148 5.3%

Other 85 4.3% 21 0.1%

Total Employment 1,987 100.0% 21,631 100.0%

Businesses Employees


provides a reasonable indication of the availability of goods in the local market.

The second source of demand, “future demand,” is demand for retail

goods based on spending patterns and projected household growth within the market area over the next ten years.

Potential demand for new retail space is divided among five merchandise categories: shoppers’ goods, restaurants, entertainment, convenience

goods and personal services. The types of goods and services within these categories are provided in Appendix B.

The results of the demand analysis are depicted in Exhibit 3 on the following page.1 As shown, existing resident demand has the potential to support an additional 1.04 million square feet of retail space in the Happy

Valley Market Area. Potential future resident demand will support 510,043 square feet, for a total of 1.55 million square feet of potential new retail

space in the Market Area through 2020. Detailed analyses for each source of demand are provided in Appendix B.

Exhibit 3. Potential Supportable Retail Space, 2009 to 2020

Source: ESRI BIS; Urban Land Institute; Marketek, Inc.

1 For purposes of determining retail potential by square footage, the general merchandise sales

leakage is redistributed by merchandise type and includes apparel, electronics, home furnishings,

home improvements, personal care and grocery.

Merchandise/ 2009 2010-2015 2015-2020

Service Category Existing Unmet Market Area Market Area

Demand Demand Demand

(SF) (SF) (SF) (SF)

Shoppers Goods

Apparel 165,619 24,734 26,735 217,087

Home Furnishings 146,293 25,231 27,272 198,796

Home Improvement 222,402 28,851 31,185 282,438

Misc. Specialty Retail 151,652 26,778 28,944 207,374

Subtotal 685,966 105,593 114,136 905,695

Convenience Goods

Grocery 116,782 47,456 51,296 215,535

Health/Personal Care 55,306 8,545 9,236 73,087

Subtotal 172,088 56,001 60,532 288,622

Restaurants 183,732 43,973 47,530 275,235

Entertainment NA 17,380 18,786 36,165

Personal Services NA 22,160 23,953 46,113

Total 1,041,787 245,106 264,937 1,551,830

Total Potential

New Retail

Space


Over half of demand (905,695 square feet or 58%) is for shoppers goods, and 20% (311,401 square feet) is for restaurants and entertainment.

Demand for convenience goods makes up another 19% (or 288,622 square feet).


Consumer Research

During fall 2009, the Happy Valley community completed an electronic survey retarding shopping needs and preferences. Surveys were posted on the City website and publicized by the city and schools. Results are

highlighted below, with detail available in Appendix C.

Shopper Survey Highlights ♦ Sixty-five (65) people participated in the survey. ♦ Sixty-four percent (64%) reported doing most of their non-grocery

shopping at Clackamas Town Center, followed by Portland (41%). Only 13% of respondents do most of their non-grocery shopping in

Happy Valley. ♦ Reasons most frequently cited for choosing to shop in Happy Valley

are its convenient location (selected by 83% of respondents), the

desire to support local businesses (65%) and the lack of traffic and crowds (46%).

♦ Deterrents to shopping in Happy Valley include: high prices (selected

by 66% of respondents), a poor selection of goods and services (56%) and limited hours (24%).

♦ Merchandise types most frequently thought to be lacking in Happy Valley include women’s casual apparel, garden supplies, shoes, hardware, sporting goods and linens and towels.

♦ Top service needs include day care, a copy center/pack and mail

service, homeopathic/naturopathic medicine and general health care.

♦ Restaurant types desired by respondents include a bakery, family dining, seafood, a brewpub, health/natural food and a

steakhouse/grill.

♦ When asked what image they would like to see Happy Valley develop

for itself, most respondents described a retail district with unique upscale shops and restaurants that serves as a fun, family-friendly

gathering place for residents and visitors.


Conclusions

Over the next decade, the City of Happy Valley is poised for significant development with numerous major projects planned and underway that will support growth of the commercial core. Among these are: the

expansion of 172nd Avenue to five lanes from Sunnyside to Highway 212, completion of phase one of Providence’s campus at Sunnyside and 162nd,

anticipated development of the Rock Creek Employment Area and the potential Fred Meyer superstore at Sunnyside and 172nd. In addition,

Happy Valley’s commitment to creating a high quality family community is evidenced by its

passage of a $235 million bond measure resulting in the

construction of a new elementary and middle school as well as other facilities.

Happy Valley’s success in capitalizing on retail/service opportunities will be influenced by factors ranging from the availability of development

capital and the resulting quality commercial space to shopping center and community anchors, marketing and incentives. All ‘smart’ shopping

districts or centers strive to offer the marketplace a diversity of quality businesses, including specialty goods, which are so prevalent in today’s consumer market.

The absorption and distribution of retail demand into any marketplace is a highly dynamic and fluid process. Downtown Happy Valley/the Happy

Valley Town Center is competing with multiple strip commercial centers on Sunnyside Road and throughout the market area to capture identified

potential demand. Marketek applied potential capture rates for downtown Happy Valley as follows: 15% of future resident demand and 8% of existing demand. These capture rates translate to potential for

159,849 square feet of new retail space.

The Happy Valley community as a whole has the potential to capture a greater share of retail with an emphasis on convenience goods. Happy Valley’s very close proximity and easy access to Clackamas Town Center

will challenge it to compete for a depth of shopper’s goods in the short term. However, local residents specifically expressed interest in general

merchandiser such as Fred Meyer and Target with moderately-priced goods.


Paramount among the factors influencing Happy Valley’s future retail

base is continued expansion of its consumer marketplace. Although this seems obvious, the critical link between market size and retail

development cannot be overstated. Developing a strong mix of retail and service establishments requires continued growth in Happy Valley households, employment and traffic to the area.

Strengthening the residential base in and immediately surrounding Happy

Valley will serve as an important catalyst for retail expansion as residents look nearby for day-to-day goods and services, dining and specialty items. Boosting the number of employees in the area by promoting

industrial development also has the potential to jumpstart retail development by offering a built–in consumer market. These are already important elements of Happy Valley’s community and economic vitality

gameplan.

Next steps for putting this retail market research to work as part of the community’s downtown and economic development efforts will be to identify specific business development and marketing strategies

appropriate to Happy Valley’s capacity, resources and commitment to the Main Street program. The outline below serves as a starting point for

this discussion.

BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT & MARKETING STRATEGIES

Primary Program Goals

• Increase local spending by trade area shopper and visitor

target markets

• Retain, strengthen and expand the existing business base in

Happy Valley

• Recruit and encourage businesses that will complement and

improve the existing commercial mix and will enhance the

attractiveness of Happy Valley shopping centers

Program Elements

• Product Readiness

• Business Retention and Expansion

• Business Attraction

• Customer Attraction


Core Strategies

• Package and promote Happy Valley’s assets and

opportunities for businesses and shoppers

• Encourage, support, and assist existing businesses

• Target new businesses to add to the business mix and

strengthen the overall economic base

• Encourage residents, businesses, visitors, and area employees

to shop in Happy Valley

• Develop a positive Happy Valley image through continuous

public relations, sales and marketing


Appendix A. Demographic Profile

2000 2009 Number Percent 2014 Number Percent

(Estimate) (Forecast)

City of Happy Valley

Population 4,519 11,465 772 17.08% 13,534 414 3.61%

Households 1,431 3,631 244 17.08% 4,295 133 3.66%

Avg. Household Size 3.16 3.16 0.000 3.15 -0.002


Population 55,770 71,395 1,736 3.11% 78,831 1,487 2.08%

Households 19,699 25,033 593 3.01% 27,617 517 2.06%

Avg. Household Size 2.80 2.83 0.003 2.83 0.000

Portland MSA

Population 1,927,881 2,233,323 33,938 1.76% 2,396,625 32,660 1.46%

Households 745,531 857,304 12,419 1.67% 919,054 12,350 1.44%


State of Oregon

Population 3,421,399 3,841,859 46,718 1.37% 4,064,906 44,609 1.16%

Households 1,333,723 1,495,911 18,021 1.35% 1,584,044 17,627 1.18%


Source: ESRI BIS; Portland State University Population Research Center

Geographic Area

Avg. Ann. Change Avg. Ann. Change

2000-2009 2009-2014

City of Happy Valley, Happy Valley Market Area, Portland MSA and Oregon

2000-2014

POPULATION & HOUSEHOLD GROWTH

Average Annual Population Growth Rates, 2000-2014

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

City of Happy Valley Happy Valley Market

Area

Portland MSA State of Oregon

2000-2009 Avg. Ann. Change 2009-2014 Avg. Ann. Change


Income Happy Valley Portland State of

Market Area MSA Oregon

Less than $15,000 6.0% 8.0% 10.6%

$15,000 - $24,999 5.8% 7.4% 9.7%

$25,000 - $34,999 7.1% 8.5% 10.3%

$35,000 - $49,999 13.4% 14.5% 15.6%

$50,000 - $74,999 23.4% 23.6% 22.7%

$75,000 - $99,999 16.2% 15.5% 15.0%

$100,000 - $149,999 17.1% 14.7% 10.2%

$150,000 - $199,999 6.4% 4.1% 3.1%

$200,000 or More 4.6% 3.7% 2.8%

Total 25,033 857,304 1,495,911

Median Household Income $68,298 $62,166 $53,483

Source: ESRI BIS

HOUSEHOLD INCOME


2009

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Less than

$15,000

$15,000 -

$24,999

$25,000 -

$34,999

$35,000 -

$49,999

$50,000 -

$74,999

$75,000 -

$99,999

$100,000 -

$149,999

$150,000 -

$199,999

$200,000 or

More

Happy Valley Market Area Portland MSA State of Oregon

Household Income Distribution, 2009


Age Category Happy Valley Portland State of


Under 5 7.4% 7.0% 6.5%

5-14 14.3% 13.2% 12.5%

15-19 6.9% 6.7% 6.8%

20-24 6.4% 6.7% 6.8%

25-34 14.0% 14.6% 13.5%

35-44 13.9% 14.3% 13.2%

45-54 15.6% 14.9% 14.8%

55-64 11.8% 11.7% 12.7%

65-74 5.3% 5.7% 6.8%

75-84 3.1% 3.5% 4.3%

85+ 1.3% 1.7% 2.1%

Total 71,395 2,233,323 3,841,859

Median Age 35.7 36.3 38.0

Source: ESRI BIS


2009

POPULATION BY AGE

Age Distribution of the Population, 2009

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Under 5 5-14 15-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+



Race/Ethnicity Happy Valley Portland State of


White Alone 80.5% 81.5% 83.7%

Black Alone 1.6% 2.8% 1.7%

American Indian Alone 0.7% 0.9% 1.3%

Asian/Pacific Islander 10.3% 6.0% 4.1%

Some Other Race Alone 3.2% 5.1% 5.8%

Two or More Races 3.7% 3.7% 3.4%

Hispanic Origin (any race) 7.1% 10.3% 11.2%

Total 71,395 2,233,323 3,841,859

Source: ESRI BIS


2009

RACIAL & ETHNIC COMPOSITION

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

White Alone Black Alone American

Indian Alone

Asian/Pacific

Islander

Some Other

Race Alone

Two or More

Races

Hispanic Origin

(any race)


Racial & Ethnic Composition, 2009


Community Tapestry Segments Recognizing that people who share the same demographic characteristics may have widely divergent interests and shopping preferences, Community Tapestry

data (developed by ESRI Business Information Solutions) categorizes neighborhoods throughout the nation into 65 consumer groups or market segments. Neighborhoods are geographically defined by census blocks, which

are analyzed and sorted by a variety of demographic and socioeconomic characteristics as well as other determinants of consumer behavior.

Market area households have been grouped into Tapestry market segments. The top market segments within the Happy Valley Market Area are identified and

summarized in the chart on the following page.


% of Hhold Median Median Consumer Preferences &

Hholds Type Age Income Purchases

1Main Street,

USA29.0%

Family

Mix37 $55,144

These fairly well-educated consumers tend to purchase

software, savings certificates, home improvement iterms

and prescription medication. Civic-minded, they often

attend public meetings and work as volunteers.

2 In Style 17.7%

Married

couples

without

children

40 $72,112

Well-educated professional couples who may live in the

suburbs but enjoy the amenities of the city. They travel

frequently for business and pleasure, own mutual funds and

contribute to 401-K accounts. Enjoy dining out and

shopping at stores such as Anne Taylor and Nordstrom.

3 Boomburbs 9.9%

Married

couples

with

children

34 $117,782

Affluent, double income families who live busy, upscale

lifestyles. They focus on home upgrades, furnishings and

landscaping. Leisure time is spent playing golf and tennis

and swimming.

4Suburban

Splendor8.1%

Married

couples41 $129,931

Families in growing neighborhoods who own large,

luxurious homes and hire contractors and maintenance

workers. They devote free time to travel, fitness and trips to

museums or the theater.

5Young and

Restless7.2%

Singles/

Shared

hholds

29 $43,645

These households are young and on the go. Their

purchases center on themselves and include sports gear,

designer clothing and computers and software. Favorite

stores include Banana Republic and Express.

6

Up and

Coming

Families

7.2%

Married

couples

with

children

32 $77,444

These young, affluent families enjoy home improvement

projects and dining out at fast food and family style

restaurants. Other leisure activities include taking their

young children to the zoo or traveling domestically.

7Sophisticated

Squires6.2%

Married

couples38 $85,937

Couples who enjoy cultured country living on the fringe of

urbanized areas. They do their own landscaping and home

improvement projects and play sports and board games.

Prefer to read than watch television.

8 Exurbanites 4.1%Married

couples45 $88,195

Empty nester couples who spend time working in their

garden or decorating their homes. Enjoy domestic wine,

attending the theater and outdoor activities such as

boating and hiking.

9 Green Acres 3.7%Married

couples41 $63,922

Blue collar families w/ children 6-17 living in pastoral

settings. These do-it-yourselfers are not afraid to tackle

home improvement projects and enjoy watching football

and NASCAR and going hunting and hiking.

10 Midland Crowd 3.3%Married

couples37 $49,748

These families reside in rural locations, with nearly 30% living

in mobile homes. They are do-it-yourselfers who may own 3

vehicles and enjoy watching TV, hunting, fishing and pets.

Source: ESRI BIS

Total Households 96.4%

TOP TEN TAPESTRY MARKET SEGMENTS


Market Segment

2009


Appendix B. Retail Demands

Merchandise/Service Types of Goods/Services

Category

Apparel Women's Apparel, Men's Apparel, Children's, Footwear,

Watches & Jewelry

Home Furnishings Furniture, Floor Coverings, Major and Small Appliances,

Household Textiles, Floor Coverings, PC Software and

Hardware, Housewares, Dinnerware, Telephones

Home Improvement Maintenance and Remodeling Materials, Lawn & Garden

Misc. Specialty Retail Pet Care, Books & Periodicals, Sporting Equipment, Toys &

Hobbies, Video Cassettes & Games, TV/VCR/Cameras,

Audio Equipment, Luggage, Eyeglasses

Groceries Food at Home, Nonalcoholic Beverages at Home,

Alcoholic Beverages, Smoking Products

Restaurants Food Away From Home, Alcoholic Beverages

Entertainment Admission to Movie/Theater/Opera/Ballet, Recreational

Lessons, Participation in Clubs

Personal Services Shoe Repair, Video Rental, Laundry & Dry Cleaning,

Alterations, Clothing Rental & Storage, Watch & Jewelry

Repair, Photo Processing & Supplies, Child Care

SUMMARY OF MERCHANDISE AND SERVICE CATEGORIES


Demand/

Spending Supply/ Leakage

Potential Retail Sales (or Surplus)

Shoppers Goods

Apparel $24,980,940 $8,956,269 $16,024,671

Home Furnishings $23,223,259 $4,820,701 $18,402,558

Electronics & Appliances $21,899,224 $1,779,179 $20,120,045

Home Improvement & Gardening $29,611,114 $5,518,330 $24,092,784

Sporting Goods, Hobbies, Books & Music $10,669,673 $2,208,010 $8,461,663

General Merchandise $131,039,428 $33,892,597 $97,146,831

Miscellaneous Specialty Retail

(florist, office supplies, gift stores, etc.)

Convenience Goods

Grocery $129,647,857 $120,851,999 $8,795,858

Health & Personal Care $19,502,296 $7,246,813 $12,255,483

Restaurants $115,326,332 $67,004,733 $48,321,599

Total Leakage $261,793,287

Source: ESRI BIS; Marketek, Inc.

Merchandise Category

$12,639,798 $4,468,003 $8,171,795

EXISTING RETAIL BALANCE


2009


Per Target

Merchandise or Household Sales Sales Space Sales Space Sales Space

Service Category Expenditure ($/SF)* (in mil $) (SF) (in mil $) (SF) (in mil $) (SF)

Apparel $1,960 $209 $50.1 239,612 $55.2 264,346 $60.8 291,080

Home Furnishings $1,904 $199 $48.6 244,428 $53.7 269,659 $59.1 296,931

Home Improvement $1,532 $140 $39.1 279,499 $43.2 308,350 $47.5 339,535

Misc. Specialty Retail $2,193 $216 $56.0 259,413 $61.8 286,191 $68.1 315,135

Shoppers Goods $193.9 1,022,952 $213.9 1,128,545 $235.5 1,242,681

Grocery $7,018 $390 $179.3 459,743 $197.8 507,199 $217.8 558,495

Health/Personal Care $1,183 $365 $30.2 82,779 $33.3 91,324 $36.7 100,560

Convenience Goods $209.5 542,522 $231.1 598,523 $254.5 659,056

Restaurants $4,385 $263 $112.0 425,993 $123.6 469,966 $136.1 517,496

Entertainment $593 $90 $15.2 168,368 $16.7 185,747 $18.4 204,533

Personal Services $1,269 $151 $32.4 214,677 $35.8 236,837 $39.4 260,790

Total $563.0 2,374,512 $621.1 2,619,618 $683.9 2,884,556

Five Year Net Gain $58.1 245,106 $62.8 264,937

* Target sales are based on the Urban Land Institute, "Dollars and Cents of Shopping Centers."

Sources: ESRI BIS; Urban Land Institute; Marketek, Inc.

2020

Retail Potential Retail Potential

2010 2015

Retail Potential

RETAIL EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL

2010-2020



Merchandise or Service Category/Business Median National Local Chain Independent

Specialty Retail

Appliances 5,956 6,292 5,911 ~

Art Gallery 1,802 ~ 1,802 1,907

Beauty Supplies 1,807 1,634 2,450 1,829

Bike Shop 3,440 ~ ~ 2,596

Bookstore 10,093 23,000 9,990 2,740

Cameras 2,000 2,000 ~ ~

Children's Wear 3,913 4,879 3,054 2,105

Family Shoe Store 4,000 4,113 5,100 2,460

Family Wear 8,000 8,500 3,474 5,132

Gift/Cards 4,200 4,900 3,780 1,653

Hardware 13,200 13,900 ~ ~

Home Accessories 7,595 10,215 5,365 2,462

Jewelry 1,500 1,610 1,968 1,200

Luggage 2,500 2,499 ~ ~

Men's Clothing Store 3,500 4,319 3,065 2,750

Pet Supplies 7,995 17,600 3,201 3,200

Record/Tapes 4,464 6,178 ~ 2,017

Sporting Goods 8,465 22,000 4,980 2,995

Toys 7,855 12,000 ~ 3,344

Women's Ready to Wear 4,400 4,503 3,960 2,145

Convenience

Drugstore/Pharmacy 10,920 10,860 16,668 4,977

Supermarket 50,420 49,071 51,495 23,300

Bakery 1,990 4,000 ~ 1,700

Gourmet Grocery 18,000 ~ ~ ~

Wine/Liquor 3,440 ~ 6,237 2,920

Personal Services

Day Spa 2,875 ~ 2,563 3,060

Women's Hair Salon 1,400 1,450 1,250 1,361

Nail Salon 1,200 ~ 1,200 1,200

Health Club 10,249 9,548 5,508 10,249

Mail/Packaging/Photocopying 1,278 1,240 ~ 1,236

Tailor/Alteration 950 ~ 900 1,035

Video Rental 6,000 6,333 4,240 4,733

Drycleaners 1,800 ~ 1,800 1,649

Day Care 4,000 ~ ~ 3,901

Laundry 2,114 ~ 2,150 1,955

Restaurants

Restaurant with Liquor 5,204 6,669 5,600 3,362

Restaurant without Liquor 3,581 6,500 3,025 2,625

Bar/Cocktail Lounge 3,821 ~ ~ 3,821

Ice Cream Parlor 1,137 1,144 1,137 1,116

Coffee/Tea 1,578 1,650 1,624 1,400

Entertainment - Cinema 35,022 37,161 35,022 21,250

Source: Urban Land Institute, "Dollars and Cents of Shopping Centers"

TYPICAL SIZE OF SELECTED BUSINESSES


Appendix C. Shopper Survey Results

Section 1: Shopping & Services in Happy Valley

1. Where do you do most of your non-grocery shopping (e.g., apparel, home furnishings, sporting goods, etc.)? (Select up to two.) (61 respondents)

� More respondents do most of their non-grocery shopping at Clackamas Town Center

than any other shopping destination (63.9%).

� Portland is the next most popular shopping destination (41.0%). Only eight

respondents shop in Happy Valley (13.1%).

� Of the 20 respondents who chose “other,” most listed specific stores, including Fred

Meyer, Target and Walmart.

2. What kinds of HOUSEHOLD GOODS do you think we are missing or need more of in

Happy Valley? (Check all that apply.) (52 respondents)

� Garden supplies are

the most commonly

listed household

good, selected by

53.8% of respondents.

� Hardware and linens

& towels follow,

chosen by 42.3% and

36.5% of respondents,

respectively.

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Other

Internet

Portland

Clackamas Town Center

Happy Valley

Number of Responses

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Other

Kitchen & Tabletop

Hardware

Building Supplies

Lighting

Garden Supplies

Linens & Towels

Appliances

Furniture

Number of Responses


3. What kinds of APPAREL do you think we are missing or need more of in Happy Valley? (Check all that apply.) (42 respondents)

� The majority of respondents

suggested that women’s

casual apparel (66.7%) and

shoes (57.1%) are needed

in Happy Valley.

� Other popular responses

include children’s and

infants’ clothing (42.9%)

and apparel for

teen/young adults (40.5%).

� Four of the respondents

who selected “other” listed

outdoor and fitness

apparel.

4. What types of SPECIALTY MERCHANDISE do you think we are missing or need more of in Happy Valley? (Check all that apply.) (54 respondents)

� The most requested specialty goods include books (selected by 40.7% of

respondents), sporting goods (37.0%) and gifts and cards (29.6%).

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Other

Jewelry

Shoes

Teen/Young Adult

Children & Infants

Men's Specialty

Men's Business

Men's Casual

Women's Specialty

Women's Business

Women's Casual

Number of Responses

0 5 10 15 20 25

Other

Toys & Hobbies

Consignment/Used

Music & CDs

Electronics

Fabric/Sewing/Yarn Supplies

Sporting Goods

Pet Supplies

Gifts & Cards

Auto Supplies

Art Galleries

Computers & Accessories

Crafts/Handmade Items

Cameras & Supplies

Books

Beauty Supplies

Art & Craft Supplies

Antiques

Number of Responses


5. What kinds of CONVENEINCE MERCHANDISE and PERSONAL SERVICES do you think we are missing or need more of in Happy Valley? (Check all that apply.) (38 respondents)

� No category was selected by a majority of respondents, but the most popular

responses were a grocery store (31.6%) and a pharmacy (28.9%).

� Respondents who selected “other” listed a bakery, ice cream shop, post office and

florist.

6. What kinds of GENERAL SERVICES do you think we are missing or need more of in Happy Valley? (Check all that apply.) (39 respondents)

� A day care and a copy center/pack & mail location were selected by the same

number of respondents (12 or 30.8%). One-hour photo development was the third

most popular response (23.1%).

� In the “other” category, responses included a post office, a dog boarding service

and a credit union.

0 3 6 9 12 15

Other

DVD/Video Rental

Barber/Salon/Beauty

Tailoring/Alterations

Dry Cleaning/Laundry

Pharmacy

Groceries

Number of Responses

0 5 10 15 20

Other

Insurance

Accounting

Legal

Banking

1-Hour Photo Development

Copy Center/Pack & Mail

Day Care

Computer Training

Computer Repair

Appliance Repair

Number of Responses


7. What HEALTH SERVICES do you think we are missing or need more of in Happy Valley? (Check all that apply.) (30 respondents)

� The most requested

health service in

Happy Valley is

homeopathic/

naturopathic care

(40.0%), followed by

general health care

(36.7%).

8. In your opinion, what types of RESTAURANTS AND CUISINES do you think we are

missing or need more of in Happy Valley? (Check all that apply.) (61 respondents) � The most popular restaurant types/cuisines were a bakery (54.1%), family dining

(41.0%), seafood (41.0%), a brewpub (39.3%) and healthy/natural food (36.1%).

� Suggestions listed in the “other” category include Thai, Chinese, Mexican, Indian,

Mediterranean and Southern cuisine. Respondents also noted the desire for upscale,

non-chain restaurants that use local ingredients. Additional suggestions include an

ice cream shop, breakfast places and bistros.

0 3 6 9 12 15

Other

General Health Care

Pediatric Care

Vision Care

Hospice

Homeopathic/Naturopathic

Dental

Chiropractic

Number of Responses

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Other

Ethnic Cuisines

Tea Room

Wine Bar

Fine Dining

Dinner Theater

Steakhouse/Grill

Pizza/Italian

Deli

Healthy/Natural

Brewpub

Seafood

Fast Food

Dessert Bar

Coffee House

Family

Bakery

Number of Responses


9. What kinds of LEISURE/ENTERTAINMENT activities do you think we are missing or need more of in Happy Valley? (Check all that apply.) (53 responses)

� Almost half of respondents think that Happy Valley needs more children’s recreation

(49.1%). Other top responses include live music/piano bar (37.7%) and indoor

recreation (30.2%).

� Those who responded under “other” suggested a family-oriented activity center, a

pool, bike and walking trails, ice skating and indoor soccer and golf.

10. Some of the above merchandise and services may be available locally. Please

explain why you may not be buying these products or services in Happy Valley if you are aware of them. (25 respondents)

� The most common reason for not shopping locally was higher prices, mentioned by

nine respondents. Other reasons included quality, specifically of restaurants and the

grocery store, and the convenience of driving to a shopping location where they

can purchase all the items they need in one trip.

� “Most Happy Valley businesses are small and thus have much higher prices than

those just a few miles away. Most of us who live here are used to driving further, and

the local businesses have to be competitively priced in order to win our loyalty.”

� “We need to have more sidewalks and less sprawl. You have to drive to get to

everything, so why not go to Portland?”

� “We go to other districts to dine out because we want a more intimate atmosphere

with good, local, northwest food. The restaurants here are mostly chains and too kid

friendly.”

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Other

Indoor Recreation

Outdoor Recreation

Riverboat Cruises

Children's Recreation

Bowling

Live Music/Piano Bar

Movie Theater

Art Galleries

Live Theater

Exercise Studio/Gym

Number of Responses


Section 2: Shopping & Business Preferences in Happy Valley

11. What are the best times for you to shop? (Please pick the top 3.) (58 respondents) � Respondents prefer to

shop weekdays after

5:00 PM (51.7%) or

Saturday afternoon

(41.4%).

12. Currently, what are the major ADVANTAGES of shopping or doing personal errands in

Happy Valley? (Please check the top 3.) (57 respondents)

� The majority of respondents cite the convenient location as the primary advantage

of shopping in Happy Valley (82.5%). This is followed by a desire to support local

businesses (64.9%).

0 10 20 30 40

Other

Sunday afternoon

Sunday morning

Saturday afternon

Saturday morning

Weekdays after 5:00 PM

Weekdays 8:30 AM to 5:00 PM

Number of Responses

0 10 20 30 40 50

Other

Know the store owners or employees

Selection of goods/services

Within walking distance

Less traffic & crowds

Support local businesses

Easy to find parking

Friendly service

Fair prices

Convenient location

Number of Responses


13. Currently, what are the major DISADVANTAGES of shopping or doing personal errands in Happy Valley? (Please check the top 3.) (50 respondents)

� High prices were the number one factor respondents cited as a disadvantage to

shopping in Happy Valley (66.0%). A majority of respondents also noted a poor

selection of goods and services (56.0%).

Section 3: General Information

14. What identity or image would you like to see Happy Valley develop for itself as a unique business, shopping, and entertainment district? (39 respondents)

� Most respondents described a retail district with unique upscale shops and

restaurants that serves as a fun, family-friendly gathering place for residents and

visitors. Several respondents noted wanting a downtown similar to Happy Valley’s

town center.

� “I would like Happy Valley to be a place that you go to because it’s unique and

features local artists and vendors. A place with a strong sense of community and not

just another strip mall.”

� “A small town with unique businesses, including restaurants. No more fast food. A

healthy, active community with recreational opportunities or all ages.”

� “A beautifully built shopping area surrounded by unique stores, cool restaurants with

outdoor seating, a local ice cream shop. A place where people want to come to

visit and shop because it offers a unique quality and is visually pleasing.”

15. What changes or improvements would you like to see in Happy Valley to make it more attractive to shoppers? (35 respondents)

� The most common response was more shopping and restaurant variety, noted by ten

respondents.

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Other

Inconvenient location

Lack of access to public transportation

Unfriendly/poor service

Traffic

Limited hours

Lack of parking

High prices

Poor selection of goods/services

Poor appearance

Number of Responses


� Respondents also mentioned lower prices and higher quality goods, the need for a

community gathering place and for increased walkability.

16. Please check your age. (60 respondents) � More than a third of respondents (36.7%) are between the ages of 45 and 54.

� A quarter (25.0%) are between 35 and 44 years old.

17. Please tell us your home zip code. (60 respondents)

� The vast majority of respondents reside in the 97086 zip code (91.7%). Other zip

codes represented include 97022, 97015, 97266 and 97206.

18. Please let us know where you live and work. (57 respondents) � Most respondents live in Happy Valley but work elsewhere (54.4%). A fifth (21.1%)

both live and work in Happy Valley.

0 5 10 15 20 25

65-74

55-64

45-54

35-44

25-34

19-24

14-18

Number of Responses

0 10 20 30 40

Other

Work in Happy Valley

Live and work in Happy Valley

Live in Happy Valey but do not work

outside the home

Live in Happy Valley but work elsewhere

Number of Responses


19. Please share any other comments below. (29 respondents)

� “I very much enjoy living in Happy Valley. It’s encouraging to see new businesses

move in, such as New Seasons. We need more culture such as live music, theater, art

galleries and more dining options.”

� “Happy Valley seems to be searching for an identity. Having a city center would

benefit the image and provide alternatives for people shopping elsewhere.”

� “We need restaurants that offer healthy choices for our families. We don’t need to

be another cookie cutter town with the same restaurant and shopping as every other

developing area.”

� “I would love to be able to walk to a coffee shop or book store. We live a healthy

active lifestyle and would like to see businesses that support this.”

� “I would like to see more community gardens spaces to share food with the local

food bank partner.”

downtown happy valley retail market assessment january 2010

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