downtown west submarket report q4 16 · the college dragon condos ten93 queen west 109oz the brant...

01 ACTIVE CONDO MARKET

05 RESALE MARKET

06 RENTAL MARKET

08 RESALE AND RENTAL BY PROJECT

10 FUTURE SUPPLY

DOWNTOWN WEST

TABLE OF CONTENTS

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

• New condo sales at highest level since 2010

• Record 88% of units in development are presold

• New launch index sold prices reach $741 psf

• Resale index price growth accelerates to 16%

• Average condo rents up 12% to $3.09 psf

• Condo completions to fall below average

• 8,690 condos and 1,860 rentals proposed

NOTE: The area defined as Downtown West in this report is a combination of Urbanation’s Downtown West and Liberty Village submarkets.

Q4-16

SUBMARKET REPORT

Active Projects Units in Development New Launches (Units) Quarterly Sales % of Units Pre-sold Avg. Sold Price (PSF) Avg. Unsold Price (PSF)

25 5,361 273 399 88% $605 $691

ACTIVE KEY METRICS:

DOWNTOWN WEST: Q1-16

Nero

The College

Dragon Condos

Ten93 Queen West

109OZ

Cabin

Fabrik

Epic on Triangle Park

Liberty Central by the Lake—Ph 2 Garrison Point

90 Niagara

Minto Westside Minto Westside—Bside

1 DOWNTOWN WEST: Q4-16

SQ Spadina Queen

Thompson Residences

oneeleven

The Harlowe

Origami Lofts

Musee

The Brant Park

SQ2 at Alexandra Park

James

Design Haus

Form Condos

PROJECTS

Under Construction

Occupying

Registered (Existing)

Pre-Construction

Waterworks

2

ACTIVE

MarketProject

Count

Units in

Development% Pre-Sold

Quarter

Sales

Annual

Change

12-month

Sales

Annual

Change

Unsold

Supply

Months of

Supply

Avg. Sold

Price (PSF)

Annual

Change

Avg.

Unsold

Price (PSF)

Annual

Change

Dow ntow n West 25 5,361 88% 377 17% 1,250 88% 625 6.0 $605 5% $691 15%

Former City of Toronto 156 46,619 92% 3,532 2% 10,889 2% 3,503 3.9 $681 4% $795 14%

Greater Toronto Area 369 94,975 90% 7,422 18% 26,391 32% 9,923 4.5 $598 3% $646 7%

New Condominium Market Summary

Source: Urbanation Inc.


Year

Project

Count

Total

Units

New

Launches Sales

Absorption

Rate % Sold

Unsold

Units

Months of

Supply

Avg. Sold

Price psf

Annual

Change

Avg.

Unsold

Price psf

Annual

Change

2012 40 8,832 1,421 1,014 35% 83% 1,828 21.6 $508 7.7% $588 5.0%

2013 39 8,832 812 1,117 42% 79% 1,610 17.3 $525 3.2% $587 -0.2%

2014 31 7,826 1,257 947 33% 79% 1,847 23.4 $547 4.1% $592 0.9%

2015 28 5,958 752 1,066 41% 69% 1,420 16.0 $574 5.0% $602 1.7%

2016 25 5,361 462 1,250 66% 88% 625 6.0 $605 5.4% $691 14.8%

Q4-2015 28 5,958 160 278 16% 76% 1420 16.0 $574 5.0% $602 1.7%

Q4-2016 25 5,361 273 377 38% 88% 625 6.0 $605 5.4% $691 14.8%

Annual New Condominium Apartment Market Activity


• Development Moderates: Active development projects declined to 25 buildings and 5,361 units — the lowest level in seven years.

• Fewer Launches: The 462 units opened in 2016 was down from 752 units in 2015 and less than one-third the 10-year average of 1,460 units.

• Sales Surge: Sales grew 36% annually in Q4-16 to 377 units. Sales over the past 12 months were up 17% to 1,250, the highest since 2010.

• Absorption Reaches New High: Two-thirds of available inventory was sold in the past 12 months (including 71% in new launches), raising the

total share of units pre-sold in development to a record 88%.

• Inventory Drops: Unsold inventory declined by 56% over the past 12 months to 625 units, equal to six months of supply — less than half the 10-

year average of 14 months

• Price Growth Rises: Average sold index prices grew 5.4% annually in Q4-16 to $605 psf, the strongest rate since 2012. Unsold prices increased

by 15% to $691 psf. Among new units launched in the past 12 months, average sold prices were $741 psf.

HIGHLIGHTS

3

ACTIVE

1,250

462

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

New Condo Sales and Launches - 12-month Totals to Q42007 to 2016

Sales New Launches


$605

$691

$741

$300

$350

$400

$450

$500

$550

$600

$650

$700

$750

$800

Avg. Sold Price for New Projects in Active Development2007 to 2016, Q4 periods

Avg. Sold Index Price (PSF) - All Units

Avg. Unsold Index Price (PSF) - All Units

Avg. Sold Index Price (PSF) - New Launches - 12 months



88%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Share of Units in Active Development Pre-SoldQ4-2007 to Q4-2016


0B7%

1B32%

1BD26%

2B24%

2BD5%

3B+5%

Units in Active Development by Suite TypeQ4-2016

6.0

625

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

2,400

Unsold Inventory and Months of Supply2007 to 2016, Q4 periods

Months of Supply (Right) No. of Units Unsold (Left)


5,3

61

25

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

New Condo Projects in Active Development2007 to 2016, Q4 periods

Number of Units (Right) Number of Projects (Left)


Leases Listings LLR Avg. Unit Size (SF) Avg. Index Rent (PSF) DOM

532 667 80% 646 $3.09 11RE

NT

AL

Registrations (Units) Sales Listings SLR Avg. Unit Size (SF) Avg. Index Price (PSF) DOM

RE

SA

LE

S

481 333 388 86% 742 $660 15RE

SA

LE

S

4

KEY METRICS:

RESALE

*Includes projects with three or more resales and/or three or more rentals

19

1

52

7 8

9

5,53 10

50

12

11 15

26

42

62

17 13

37

22

4

6

35

47

32

38

56

39

36

21

61

41

58

43

49

34

33 57

27

31 24

30

55

14

18

52

25

60

16

58

45

44

28 23

29

20 3

50 2

45


Registered (Existing)

Purpose-built Rental (Built since 2005)

PROJECTS*

Purpose-built Rental (Under Construction)

64

48

63

40

5

RESALE


• Sales Rise as Listings Fall: Sales increased 2% annually in Q4-16 while total listings fell 29% year-over-year. Total sales for 2016 grew 16% to

a new high of 1,638 units.

• Market Tightens: The ratio of sales-to-listings reached a new high of 86%, rising from 60% a year ago, while average days on market fell by two

weeks to 15 days

• Faster Price Appreciation: Average index price growth averaged 9.1% in 2016, up from 4.3% in 2015 and above the 10-year average of 6%.

Annual index growth accelerated to 16% in Q4-16, with average prices reaching $660 psf ($490,000)

• Unit Sizes Decline: Average size of resale units fell to a new low of 733 sf in 2016 (742 sf in Q4-16) , falling by 65 sf over the past five years.

HIGHLIGHTS

MarketProject

Count

Total

Units

Quarter

Sales

Annual

Change

Total

Listings

Sales to

Listings

Ratio

Active

Listings

Months

of

Supply

Avg.

Size

(SF)

Avg.

Price

(000s)

Avg.

Price

(PSF)

Annual

ChangeDOM

Dow ntow n West 124 20,463 333 1% 388 86% 45 0.3 742 $490 $660 15.6% 15

Former City of Toronto 681 126,688 2,085 24% 2,610 80% 416 0.5 803 $558 $696 16.0% 20

Greater Toronto Area 1,719 311,314 5,825 26% 7,270 80% 1,135 0.5 861 $458 $532 15.9% 22

Resale Condominium Market Summary

Source: Urbanation Inc., Toronto Real Estate Board

Year

Project

Count

Total

Units

New

Registrations Sales

Avg.

Quarterly

SLR

Active

Listings1

Months of

Supply

Avg. Suite

Size (sf)

Avg. Price

(000s)

Avg. Price

(psf)

Annual

Change DOM

2012 88 11,445 887 908 52% 141 1.9 801 $416 $518 2.5% 25

2013 103 11,445 3,942 935 46% 149 1.9 775 $410 $528 2.0% 29

2014 110 16,749 1,361 1,233 52% 148 1.4 777 $424 $546 3.5% 30

2015 117 18,823 2,074 1,451 54% 149 1.2 752 $430 $570 4.3% 27

2016 124 20,463 1,640 1,682 74% 45 0.3 733 $455 $622 9.1% 20

Q4-2015 117 18,823 520 330 60% 149 1.2 742 $424 $571 2.8% 29

Q4-2016 124 20,463 481 333 86% 45 0.3 742 $490 $660 15.6% 15

*SLR = Sale to Listings Ratio1 At the end of the period.


Annual Resale Condominium Apartment Market Activity

6

RENTAL


HIGHLIGHTS

• Lease Activity Continues to Grow: Condo leased through MLS increased by 5% in Q4-16 to 532 units, totaling a record 2,049 leases over the

past 12 months

• Supply Declines: Condos listed for lease decreased by 3% year-over-year in Q4-16. The average days on market fell by one week to 11 days

from 18 days in Q4-15.

• Rents Accelerate: Average index condo rents increased by 7.3% during 2016, reaching growth of 12.3% in Q4-16. Monthly rents averaged a new

high of $1,993 based on an average size of 646 sf, for a record index level of $3.09 psf.

• No Vacancy: No units were vacant within the two purpose-built projects completed since 2005, which averaged rents of $2.60 and $2.94 psf.

MarketProject

Count

Total

Units

Quarter

Leaes

Annual

Change

Total

Listings

Lease to

Listings

Ratio

Active

Listings

Months

of

Supply

Avg.

Size

(SF)

Avg.

Monthly

Rent

Avg.

Rent

(PSF)

Annual

ChangeDOM

Dow ntow n West 124 20,463 532 6% 667 80% 132 0.8 646 $1,993 $3.09 12.3% 11

Former City of Toronto 681 126,688 2,976 17% 3,992 75% 957 0.8 682 $2,134 $3.13 11.8% 14

Greater Toronto Area 1,719 311,314 5,401 -4% 7,037 77% 1,558 0.7 719 $1,990 $2.77 11.2% 13

Rental Condominium Market Summary


Year

Project

Count Total Units

New

Registrations Leases

Avg.

Quarterly

LLR1

Active

Listings2

Months of

Supply

Avg. Suite

Size (sf) Avg. Rent

Avg. Rent

(psf)

Annual

Change DOM

2012 88 11,445 887 716 83% 56 0.9 734 $1,946 $2.66 9.5% 15

2013 103 11,445 3,942 1,653 81% 113 0.8 703 $1,871 $2.68 0.7% 17

2014 110 16,749 1,361 1,969 83% 107 0.7 695 $1,877 $2.69 0.7% 18

2015 117 18,823 2,074 2,076 79% 127 0.7 666 $1,846 $2.77 2.6% 18

2016 124 20,463 1,640 2,106 85% 132 0.8 659 $1,972 $2.97 7.3% 13

Q4-2015 117 18,823 520 504 78% 127 0.7 672 $1,847 $2.75 0.9% 18

Q4-2016 124 20,463 481 532 80% 132 0.8 646 $1,993 $3.09 12.3% 11

1LLR = Lease to Listings Ratio 2 At the end of the period.


Annual Rental Condominium Apartment Market Activity

7

RESALE & RENTAL


333

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Quarterly MLS Resale Activity2010 to 2016, Q4 periods


$3.09

$2.00

$2.20

$2.40

$2.60

$2.80

$3.00

$3.20

MLS Rents PSF2010 to 2016, Q4 periods


Sales ShareAvg.

Size (sf)

Avg. Price

(psf)Leases Share

Avg.

Size (sf)

Avg. Rent

(psf)

2004 & earlier 57 17% 854 $650 31 6% 875 $2.73

2005-2009 55 17% 800 $669 37 7% 715 $3.09

2010-2014 149 45% 756 $637 176 33% 675 $3.03

2015-Present 72 22% 581 $692 288 54% 595 $3.22

All Projects 333 100% 742 $660 532 100% 646 $3.09

Resale Rental

Registration Date


Average Index Prices and Rents by Project Age - Q4-2016

Sales ShareAvg. Price

(000s)Leases Share

Avg. Monthly

Rent

0B 8 2% $278 19 6% $1,448

1B 115 35% $393 242 73% $1,734

1BD 94 28% $455 119 36% $2,045

2B 99 30% $567 124 37% $2,324

2BD 15 5% $990 26 8% $2,885

3B+ 2 1% $975 2 1% $3,350

All Units 333 100% $490 532 100% $1,993


Resales Rentals

Unit Type

Resale/Rental Volumes and Average Price by Unit Type

532

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Quarterly MLS Rental Activity2010 to 2016, Q4 periods


$660

$300

$350

$400

$450

$500

$550

$600

$650

$700

MLS Resale Prices PSF2010 to 2016, Q4 periods


8

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Projects Units Projects Units

29 8,690 5 1,860

FUTURE CONDO SUPPLY FUTURE RENTAL SUPPLY

Sales Sales Volumes

1 $26.6 million

APARTMENT LAND SALES

10

KEY METRICS:

FUTURE SUPPLY

14

30

13

24 12

15 19

29

6

27

34

10

9 1

26

2

22

3

4

21

17

5

31

20 8

25 33

28 7

23

11

18

16

35


Approved Condo/Rental Project

Planned Condo/Rental Project

PROJECTS/SALES

Apartment Land Sales

11

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108

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uild

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564

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atio

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7B

ath

urs

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663 K

ing S

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Main

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ain

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pm

ents

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l247

Applic

atio

n

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ath

urs

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ank

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624

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atio

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ath

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219 B

ath

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ork

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ents

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28

Applic

atio

n

10

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ichm

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149 B

ath

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arlyle

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es &

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tone U

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ents

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l155

Applic

atio

n

11

Bath

urs

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543-5

53 R

ichm

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t W

(E o

f B

ath

urs

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bert

on G

roup

Condo

536

Applic

atio

n

12

Garr

ison P

oin

t -

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30 O

rdnance S

t (E

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iam

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629

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ved

13

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ne / Q

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1181-1

183 Q

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(at D

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ourt

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OLO

(1181 Q

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t) In

c.

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146

Applic

atio

n

14

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ast Lib

ert

y171 E

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y S

t (a

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evelo

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ents

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283

Appro

ved

15

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y G

ate

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este

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attery

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f S

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om

es

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350

Appro

ved

16

Mannin

g / C

olle

ge

547-5

55 C

olle

ge S

t (E

of

Mannin

g)

Rio

Can / A

llied P

ropert

ies

Renta

l77

Appro

ved

17

McC

aul /

Dundas

308 D

undas S

t W

(at M

cC

aul)

2178208 O

nta

rio In

c.

Condo

10

Applic

atio

n

18

Min

to W

ests

ide -

Phase 3

25-2

7 B

ath

urs

t S

tM

into

Urb

an C

om

muniti

es

Condo

540

Appro

ved

19

Novus

11 &

25 O

rdnance S

tB

enta

ll K

ennedy L

td.

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l579

Appro

ved

20

Port

land / A

dela

ide

502 A

dela

ide S

t W

& 1

19-1

23 P

ort

land S

tPort

land A

dela

ide D

evelo

pm

ents

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Condo

37

Applic

atio

n

21

Port

land / Q

ueen

504-5

06 W

ellingto

n S

t (E

of

Port

land)

Uxla

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evelo

pm

ent C

orp

. / O

rpheus In

vestm

ents

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14

Applic

atio

n

22

Port

land / W

ellingto

n67 P

ort

land S

t (S

of

Ste

wart

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AV

S P

ropert

y M

anagem

ent

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16

Applic

atio

n

23

Port

land / W

ellingto

n489 W

ellingto

n S

t W

Lifetim

e D

evelo

pm

ents

Condo

136

Applic

atio

n

24

Queen / D

uff

erin

99 S

udbury

St (a

t Lis

gar

St)

2090416 O

nta

rio In

c.

Condo

190

Applic

atio

n

25

Spadin

a / C

olle

ge

243 C

olle

ge S

t (E

of

Spadin

a)

13911389 O

nta

rio L

td.

Condo

121

Applic

atio

n

26

Spadin

a / D

undas

222 S

padin

a A

ve (

S o

f D

undas S

t W

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lobal I

nc.

Condo

92

Appro

ved

27

Spadin

a / R

ichm

ond

457 R

ichm

ond S

t W

(W

of

Spadin

a)

Opus M

anagem

ent In

c.

Condo

139

Applic

atio

n

28

Spadin

a / W

ellingto

n456 W

ellingto

n S

t W

(E o

f D

raper)

Orp

heus In

vestm

ents

/ C

arn

ivore

Inc.

Condo

26

Applic

atio

n

29

Tecum

seth

/ N

iagara

89-1

09 N

iagara

(W

of

Bath

urs

t)S

him

cor

Investm

ents

Ltd

Condo

367

Applic

atio

n

30

The P

lant

41 D

overc

ourt

Rd (

S o

f Q

ueen)

One D

evelo

pm

ent / O

renda D

evelo

pm

ent A

ssocia

tes

Condo

75

Applic

atio

n

31

The W

ell

(Condo P

ort

ion)

444 F

ront S

t W

(at S

padin

a)

Woodbourn

e C

anada P

art

ners

III (

CA

) LP / R

ioC

an / T

ridel

Condo

785

Applic

atio

n

32

The W

ell

(Renta

l Port

ion)

444 F

ront S

t W

(at S

padin

a)

Woodbourn

e C

anada P

art

ners

III (

CA

) LP / R

ioC

an / T

ridel

Renta

l802

Applic

atio

n

33

Theory

203 C

olle

ge S

t (E

of

Beverley)

Parr

ala

x In

vestm

ent C

orp

.C

ondo

309

Applic

atio

n

34

Wellingto

n H

ouse

422 W

ellingto

n S

t W

Lam

b D

evelo

pm

ent C

orp

Condo

120

Applic

atio

n

TO

TA

L10,5

50

Pro

po

se

d C

on

do

min

ium

an

d P

urp

os

e-B

uilt

Re

nta

l A

part

me

nt

Pro

jects

12

For more information on our Subscriptions and/or site-specific market studies:

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FUTURE SUPPLY

8,690

1,860

Future Supply Units Q4-2016

Proposed Condo Proposed Rental



1,1

65

1,8

30

1,2

00

2,6

47

2,0

13

1,3

69

1,2

14

76

5

1,0

93

1,2

39

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Condo Unit Completions by Year2010 to 2019

Occupancies Anticipated Completions


downtown west submarket report q4 16 · the college dragon condos ten93 queen west 109oz the brant...

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