Dr Andrew Glencross ~ andrew.glencross@eui.eu

State of the Union and Super Tuesday Review

Government and Politics of the USALecture 23

Hillary Term Essay

• What does this means for Obama?

• What does this means for Hillary?

• What does this means for Edwards?

• Deadline: 5pm, Monday 10th of March (Hillary term wk 10) • Submit essay online via www.turnitin.com and hard copy to Jane

Suiter

• Choose 1 of 3 titles; strict 2,000 word limit (excluding bibliography)– “In practice, Congress functions not as a unified institution, but as a

collection of semi-autonomous committees that seldom act in unison“. Discuss this view, and explain your response.

– What are the consequences of pluralism and federalism for the policy-making process in the US? Evaluate these consequences with reference to at least two policy areas.

– Discuss the role played by money in US Presidential elections. Elaborate your response in the context of attempts at campaign finance reform since the 1970s and the 2008 Presidential election.

• Details on course website - http://uspoliticstcd.pbwiki.com/Course-assessment

Required reading…

–state of the union synopsis (www.whitehouse.gov/stateoftheunion/2008)

–Winter of conservative discontent (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/02/the_winter_of_our_conservative.html)

– Who’s more electable? (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/07/opinion/07kristof.html?ref=opinion)

Readings for today

• Review of the State of the Union Address

• Bush’s Proposed 2009 Budget

• Super Tuesday – How Things Stood Before

• Super Tuesday – What We Now Know

• The Next Phase of the Primary Process

Agenda

– Constitution obliges President to:“from time to time give to

Congress information of the State

of the Union and recommend to

their Consideration such measures

as he shall judge necessary and expedient." (Art II, 2)- Addresses joint session of Congress, Supreme Court

justices and Joint Chiefs of Staff also in attendance- Televised live and followed since 1966 by rebuttal

from opposition party

Review of the State of the Union Address

Review of the State of the Union Address

• The economy – 150 bill emergency package to stimulate growth based on tax rebate, more free trade with Columbia, Panama and South Korea, make 2001 and 2003 tax cuts permanent

• The military – more troops for Afghanistan, more money for veterans' health, education and families

• Foreign policy – “fostering freedom agenda” by supporting Middle East Peace, countering Iranian influence and proliferation, support for post 2012 global agreement on climate change

Major Themes of 2008 State of the Union

Review of the State of the Union Address

• Immigration – vaunts merits of administration’s increased border control measures but no measures for dealing with presence of illegal aliens

• Health care – proposes offering tax relief on all private health insurance to make it more affordable but no mention of uninsured

• Balancing the budget – promises to do so by 2012 without raising taxes by clamping down on wasteful federal spending

Problematic Domestic Issues

Bush’s Proposed 2009 Budget The 3 Trillion Dollar Question

• Revenues– 2.7 Trillion

• Expenditures– 3.1 Trillion

• Deficit– 400 Billion

Bush’s Proposed 2009 Budget

Where Does the Money Go?

Defence and Homeland Security

730 Billion

Social Security

644 Billion

Medicare and Medicaid

408 Billion

Interest on Federal

Debt260 Billion

• The Deficit – projects balanced budget in 2012 but assumes zero funding for Afghan and Iraq campaigns as of 2010

• Health Care – seeks 178 billion reduction in Medicare expenditure over five years but Congress has recently rejected smaller cuts

• Freeze on most non-military domestic expenditure – unlikely to be supported in Congress

• Military – highest funding level since WW2

Bush’s Proposed 2009 Budget

Critique of the Budget

Super Tuesday – How Things Stood Before

• Hillary Clinton – overall winner in New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada and Florida. Raised 100 million in 2007 and 13.5 million in January 2008. Sense of “inevitability” behind her campaign dwindled. Big support from Democrat Party machine and hubby Bill. Emphasis on experience and competence. Strong support base amongst women and Latino voters.

• Barack Obama – winner in Iowa and S. Carolina. Raised nearly 100 million in 2007 and 32 million in Jan 2008. Momentum gained from Iowa win faltered after loss in Nevada but picked up after S. Carolina. Celebrity endorsement from Oprah and also Kennedy clan. Emphasis on change and break with Washington establishment. Strong support base among young and African-American voters.

• John Edwards – a decent 2nd place finish in Iowa followed by disappointing 3rd place in N. Hampshire and S. Carolina. Resorted to receiving federal funding. Withdrew from race on 30 Jan. Has not endorsed a candidate

The Democrat Candidates

Super Tuesday – How Things Stood Before

• Mitt Romney – winner in Wyoming, Michigan and Nevada. Raised 90 million by end January 2008, including 35 million from his pocket. Hardly Mr Charisma. Tried to claim mantle of Ronald Reagan and when economy soured played up his business credentials.

• John McCain – winner in N. Hampshire, S. Carolina and Florida. Iowa and S. Carolina. Raised only 30 million in 2007. Come-back kid having been in doldrums in first half of 2007. Strong support amongst moderates and independents.

• Mike Huckabee – won Iowa. Full of repartee. Shoe-string budget. Christian conservative candidate.

• Rudy Giuliani – Gambled all on Florida … and Florida dispatched him. Now endorsing McCain

The Republican Candidates

Super Tuesday – What We Now Know

BYE BYE ROMNEY

Southern Republicans

Are True Conservatives

McCain now 93% probable of winning

nomination

Super Tuesday – What We Now Know

Rather: What we Don’t Know

Super Tuesday – What We Now Know

• Republicans did not find Romney’s conservative credentials credible

• McCain’s obvious commander-in-chief persona enough to sway moderate republicans and bipartisan record popular with independents

• Obama and Clinton are neck and neck but the money advantage is with Obama – Clinton has resorted to loaning her campaign 5million

• Clinton remains popular with three core democratic constituencies: women, Hispanics and working-class voters e.g. in California won 60% of women voters and had 2:1 advantage in Hispanic vote

• Obama’s national “surge” prior to Super Tuesday not enough to win in Cal or N.Y – but has the advantage with African-Americans, college-educated voters and, surprisingly, white rural areas

• Nightmare scenario for Democrats– McCain all but nominated whilst Dems continue to slug it

out. Given closeness of race superdelegates might prove decisive.

– Absence of clear policy differences between Clinton and Obama means campaign hinges on personality, leading to divisive contest especially between core constituencies

• McCain at odds with hard-core republicans– Will have to adapt message to appease them, possibly by

adopting Huckabee as running mate but would be off putting for moderates and independents

– But McCain will have more time to conduct national campaign

– Elephant in the room: Dubya

Super Tuesday – What We Now Know

McCain 48% Clinton 42%

Super Tuesday – What We Now KnowPossible Match-Ups

McCain Edges itOver Clinton

But Obama is Best Bet Against

McCain

Obama 45%McCain 42%

The Next Phase of the Primary Process

• Tuesday 12 Feb: Virginia, Maryland, DC (both parties)– Virginia Dem Primary:

Obama 55%Clinton 37%

– Maryland Dem Primary:Obama 57%Clinton 31%

• To keep track of the delegate tally in the Democratic race:– http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/

Next Session

• Youtube clips from the nomination race

• Introduction to Public Policy