dr. elisabeth lipiatou head of unit ‘climate change and environmental risks unit’’ dg research...
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Dr. Elisabeth LIPIATOU
Head of Unit ‘Climate Change and Environmental Risks Unit’’
DG Research European Commission
SBSTA Dialogue on developments in research activities relevant to the needs of the Convention
Climate change research in the 7th Framework Programme: Results & new initiatives
Bonn, 3 June 2010
FP7: A regional research programme with global scope
International cooperation in FP7
• FP7 is a programme open to the world with in total 39 States contributing
• FP7 is open to participation of all countries of the world
• FP7 provides support for climate research in and by developping countries
FP relative contribution to Non Annex 1 Countries
FP7
• Recent results
Temperature changes for different scenarios and transport modes
Climate research-Key results Transport
-(1.3 –1.5)+1.5
W/m2
00
-(0.1 – 0) +(2.3 ~ 6.6)
W/m2
Not taking account
secondary aerosol
Sensitivity of CCN from uncertainty in processes (e.g nucleation) and emissions (RCPs and biogenic)
Year
Pre-Industrial situation
Current day: aerosol indirect cooling effect of same order as CO2 forcing (although with still high uncertainty)
Future:Aerosol indirect cooling effect almost same as pre-industrial, CO2 forcing continues to raise
More indirect aerosol cooling
Less indirect aerosol cooling
Source: Makkonen et al, manuscript in preparation
Climate research-Key results AEROSOLS
(model ECHAM5-HAM)
ClimateCost provides major research into economic policy tools
Development of PAGE-model – a model used in the Stern Review
Global annual total of impacts given the IPCC A1B scenario
Impacts include sea level rise, economic, non-economic and discontinuity
50 % chance of approaching 20 trillion $/year in 2200; 5 trillion $/year in 2100
5% chance of approaching 50 trillion $ /year in 2200!
By comparison, Global GDP was 70.21 trillion $ in 2009!
Climate research-Key results Full cost of climate change
5% Probability line
Mean
25% Probability line
5% Probability line
DAMOCLES September 2008 and 2009 had the second and third lowest summer ice extents ever observed.
Projection show that sea-ice in summer might completely disappear by the end of this century.
Unless emissions are curbed significantly, a stabilisation of the Arctic's climate system will be unlikely
Climate research-Key results ARCTIC
Climate research-Key results
•Model results indicate that under summer conditions 10% of Arcticsurface waters will become under saturated within 10 years and most of the surface Arctic by mid-century.
•In the Canary Current system, simulations indicate both strong seasonal upwelling of under saturated waters and a trend that will render half the waters above 250 m to become under saturated by year 2050.
Ocean acidification
FP7
• New initiatives
Key issues highlighted in the ‘Accord’-importance of research
• Projections of impacts of a global temperature change up to 2°C for Europe and in vulnerable regions,
• Need for robust monitoring, reporting and verification methodologies related to the implementation of policy commitments
• The design of mechanisms for reducing emissions from deforestation and land use
• Robust quantification of emission reduction potential and associated costs in key sectors.
• Adaptation actions to minimise the adverse impacts of climate change
Global targets – feasibility and affordability (2o C and below)
• Impacts of a global temperature increase up to 2°C from pre-industrial level, in Europe and most vulnerable regions of the world
• Mitigation measures in the world's major economies compatible
with global temperature increase up to 2°C
Climate research- New initiatives (2010-11)
Improve climate projections-future climate, an issue of scale
Modelling: improving climate projections require sustained upstream
efforts on the development of models. New projects.
Downscaling: climate projections need to address finer geographical
scales. Funding is provided to these activities essential notably to the
development of climate services.
Climate research- New initiatives (2010)
Climate services
• Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) addresses
challenges and next steps for the space component including services.
• Joint GEO-IPCC Expert Consultation – How GEOSS could serve the data needs of the climate communities and support the IPCC assessment (Geneva, date to be confirmed).
Climate research - New initiatives (2010)
• Integrated monitoring and modelling system to reduce uncertainties in climate change impact analysis (CLIMB)
• Quantification of risks including socio-economic factors. (WASSERMed)
• Climate change, hydrological impact on national security and armed conflicts. Vulnerability and adaptation (CLICO)
Multi-disciplinary approach: Environment and Social Sciences
Climate Change impacts on Water and Security in
Southern Europe and neighboring regions
Climate research- New initiatives (2009)
Location of study areas
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Climate changeClimate change
Net greenhouse gasNet greenhouse gas
Land use changeLand use change
Water Water BiodiversityBiodiversity
Agriculture and forestryAgriculture and forestry
Food Food securitysecurity
ImpactsImpacts
AdaptationAdaptation MitigationMitigation
Climate research- New initiatives (2010)Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change
Joint Programming Initiative
Arctic
•Assessing and quantifying climate change impacts on key sectors (maritime transport, fisheries, tourism and resource extraction) and on how these sectors could affect the Arctic environment
•EU and Russia cooperation for enhancing GMES earth observation coverage.
•Research infrastructures for polar research: Interdisciplinary observation and monitoring stations for atmospheric, terrestrial and marine studies
Climate research- New initiatives (2009-2010)
Carbon cycle research
•Impacts of climate variability and weather extremes on terrestrial carbon sinks. Response of soil carbon to increasing temperature. (CARBOEXTREME)
•Annual to decadal variability of carbon and GHG budgets of terrestrial ecosystems. CO2, CH4, and N2O.(GHG Europe)
•Vulnerability of the ocean carbon sources and sinks under future climate conditions. (CARBOCHANGE)
Climate research- New initiatives (2009-2010)
General public
Goal: To sustain and enhance the credibility of scientific information; to go beyond the social awareness, facilitating active behavioural engagement
Message to emphasize the regional and local dimension of information of the impacts and implications at individual level; Present information in a way that affirms rather than threatens people’s values.
Policy makers
Goal: To increase awareness and use of research results relevant to the policy making process
Communication to focus on scientific evidence and propose policy options; explain research methods used will increase credibility; new mechanisms to improve ‘translation’ of results.
Context of communication post-Copenhagen
