Climate Change and Food Security

Central Research Institute for Dryland AgricultureHyderabad

G.G.S.N.RaoProject Coordinator (Agromet)

G.G.S.N.RaoProject Coordinator (Agromet)

Occurs due to changes in

• Composition and circulation of

• Atmosphere &• Oceans

• Hydrological cycle

• Land surface

Climate Change

The Challenge: Sustainable Management of

an Ever-Changing Planet

Source: IPCC TAR 2001

UW Climate Impacts Group

Global temperature: 1000 years back, 100 forwardGlobal temperature: 1000 years back, 100 forward

1000 20001900 2100

From 1900 to 2000

the planet warmed

~0.74°C.

Global average

temperature

projected to

increase 1.8-4.0°C

by 2100.

Consequences of Global Warming

2007 Warmest Year

• Figure shows 2007 temperature anomalies relative to the 1951-1980 base

period mean.

• The global mean temperature anomaly, 0.57°C (about 1°F) warmer than

the 1951-1980 mean, continues the strong warming trend of the past thirty

years that has been confidently attributed to the effect of increasing

human-made greenhouse gases (GHGs) (Hansen et al. 2007).

• The eight warmest years in the GISS record have all occurred since 1998,

and the 14 warmest years in the record have all occurred since 1990.

The most important spatial pattern (top) of the monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for 1900 to 2002.

The time series (below) accounts for most of the trend in PDSI.

Drought is increasing most places

Mainly decrease in rain over land in tropics and

subtropics, but enhanced by increased atmospheric

demand with warming

RHONE GLACIER (Switzerland)

Evidence for reality of climate changeEvidence for reality of climate change

Glaciers meltingGlaciers meltingGlaciers melting

1900 2003Alpine glacier, Austria

1900 2003Alpine glacier, Austria

1909

TobogganGlacierAlaska

2000

Muir Glacier, Alaska

An ice free Arctic?

1979 2003

• Arctic sea ice cover, 1979. Between 1979 and

2003 (Figure 8b), Arctic perennial sea ice has

been decreasing at a rate of 9% per decade.

• map of sea ice extent for October 16, 2007; the

magenta line shows the median October

monthly extent based on data from 1979 to

2000.

• Increased risk of floods, potentially displacing tens of millions of

people, due to sea level rise and heavy rainfall events,

especially in Small Island States and low-lying deltaic areas

Bangladesh is projected to lose about 17% of its land area with

a sea level rise of one meter - very difficult to adapt due to lack

of adaptive capacity

projected

present

• Impacts are worse - already more flood and drought prone

and a large share of the economy is in climate sensitive

sectors

• Lower capacity to adapt because of a lack of financial,

institutional and technological capacity and access to

knowledge

• Climate change is likely to impact disproportionately upon the

poorest countries and the poorest persons within countries,

exacerbating inequities in health status and access to

adequate food, clean water and other resources.

• Net market sector effects are expected to be negative in most

developing countries

Developing countries are the most

vulnerable to climate change

1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

23

23.5

24

24.5

25

25.5

Tem

pera

ture

(C

)

Variation of All-India mean annual temperature during 1875-2004

Linear trend = 0.03C/10yr *(1875-2004) 0.22C/10yr **(1971-2004)

Trend of south-west monsoon season in mm in 100 year

IMD

Shifts in monthly rainfall pattern

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 1 12

Rainfa

ll (m

m)

Mon th

1961-1990

1991-2002

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Months

Rainfall (mm)

1961-1990 1991-1999

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Months

Rainfall (mm)

1961-1990 1991-2001

ANANTAPUR

BANGALORE

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

280

320

360

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Months

Rainfall (mm)

1961-1990 1991-2003

BIJAPUR

RAIPUR

*India today, 6 Nov 2006

Melting Glaciers On Indian Soil

Climate during last seven years

Year Rainfall Departure (%)

2000 -11

2001 -15

2002 -19

2003 +2

2004 -13

2005 -1

2006 0.7

Extreme Events Extreme Events

All India All India

RainfallRainfall

•• 2002 drought2002 drought

•• 20 day heat wave during May 2003 in Andhra Pradesh20 day heat wave during May 2003 in Andhra Pradesh

•• Extreme cold winter in the year 2002Extreme cold winter in the year 2002--0303

•• Drought like situation in India in July 2004Drought like situation in India in July 2004

•• Abnormal temperatures during March 2004 and Jan 2005Abnormal temperatures during March 2004 and Jan 2005

•• Floods in 2005 Floods in 2005

•• Cold wave 2005 Cold wave 2005 -- 0606

•• Floods in arid Rajasthan & AP and drought in NE regions in 2006Floods in arid Rajasthan & AP and drought in NE regions in 2006

•• Abnormal temperatures during 3Abnormal temperatures during 3rdrd week of Jan to 1week of Jan to 1stst week of Feb 2007week of Feb 2007

Temperature anomaly (oC) in India during May 18 – 31, 2003

(Source: NOAA)

Extreme Weather Events

Heat Wave (2003) - Damage to Mango Orchard

Custard Apple is tolerant to High temperatures

Damage in Orchards due to heat wave during May 2003

Orchard Damaged Area (Ha.)

Number of plants

damaged

Mango 7322.86 6,66,233

Sapota 27.86 2,297

Sweet Orange 12741.00 21,96,347

Acid Lime 2657.69 2,52,066

Cashewnut 307.00 23,085

Pomogranate 19.00 3,800

Total 23075.41 31,43,828

Heat Wave (2003) - Damage to Poultry

Andhra Pradesh

¤20 lakhs birds died in May & June 2003

¤ Highest in E. Godavari-7 Lakhs; W. Godavari – 5 lakhs

¤ Egg production decreased in the state by 25%

¤ Total Loss by 27 Crores

Mustard Ice flakes Ice formation on leaves mustard

Papaya wheat Jatropa Frost observation

Impact of Recent coldwave in North India (2006)

Contribution of Indian agriculture in enhancing the

food production and food security

• Food grain production increased from 45 to 212 mt

• Area under cultivation has increased from 120 to 143 m ha

• Acreage under irrigation has increased from 21 to 60 m ha

• Fertilizer consumption has improved from 0.5 to 95 kg/ ha

• Acreage under HYV has improved from 15 to 80 mha

• Animal population has increased from 293 m to 520 m

• Milk production has increased from 20 to 100 mt

This has transformed scenario to a food surplus nation with

buffer food stocks.

Problems with Agriculture in India

• Green Revolution fatigue

• Low productivity in rainfed areas

– Small holdings

– Subsistence

– Mercy of monsoon

– Limited water and land

– Disease, pests, drought, weeds

– Storage and transportation

�Conventional plant improvement methods are

reaching their limits

�Agricultural growth is now <2% compared to

3% in 1970s

India today, June 11,2007

Present Agriculture Situation in India

Thus, technology must evolve and

percolate to the end-user at a much

faster pace

“We must aim at an agricultural growth of 4% per year, if India has to

achieve its ambition of overall economic growth rate of over 8 % per

annum”

(Prime Minister’s Inaugural Speech at National Conference on Krishi Vigyan

Kendras in New Delhi. October 27, 2005)

Though the Xth Plan assumed a growth rate of 4% for agricultural

production, the reality was different…. the first 3 years we have not been

able to ensure 1.5% rate of growth…. We are focusing on technological

breakthroughs for scaling up yields….

Climate change

Impacts on Agriculture

Green house gases and their global warming potential

G HG Global

warming

potential

India’s aggregate

national emissions

(1994) in Gg

% of total

GHG

emissions

CO2

1 817023 65%

CH4

21 18083 31%

N2O 310 178 4%

Of this agriculture sector contributes- 3,44,485 Gg of

CO2 equivalent.- 28% of the total

1 Gg= 109 grams

Loss in wheat production due to

climate change

Source: IARI/ ICAR network

Declining apple yields in Himachal due to inadequate chilling

Source: HPKVV/ICAR network

• Yields of main season (kharif) crops increase due to the effect of higher CO2 levels.

• Large yield decreases were predicted for the second season (rabi) crops at many of the locations due to high temperatures being encountered.

• Effect on overall national production is small.

Impact of Climate Change on Rice production in India

Climate Change and Crop ProductivityTemperature Effects on Crop Yield – Several Major Crops

Crop Topt,

°C

Tmax,

°C

Yield

at Topt,

t/ha

Yield

at 28

°C, t/ha

Yield at

32°C

t/ha

% decrease

(28 to 32 °C)

Rice 25 36 7.55 6.31 2.93 54

Soybean 28 39 3.41 3.41 3.06 10

Dry bean 22 32 2.87 1.39 0.00 100

Peanut 25 40 3.38 3.22 2.58 20

Grain

sorghum

26 35 12.24 11.75 6.95 41

Station Crop

Increase in water

requirements

(2020-2005)

mm

AnakapalliMaize 51.7

Groundnut 61.3

Anantapur Groundnut 70.1

Red gram 174.3

Jagtial Cotton 60.5

Maize 49.0

Rajendranagar Red gram 114.5

Groundnut 73.0

Tirupathi Groundnut 73.0

Projected Crop W

ater Requirement

Station Crop

Reduction in

crop duration

(weeks)

AnakapalliMaize 1

Groundnut 1

AnantapurGroundnut 1

Red gram 1

JagtialCotton 2

Maize 1

RajendranagarRed gram 2

Sorghum 1

Tirupathi Groundnut 1

Changes in crop duration

Impacts of changing climate on rice production in Tamil Nadu

5217

4843 ( - 7.1 %)

3218 (- 38.3 %)

2200 (- 57.8 %)

4858

4348 ( - 10.5%)

3556 ( - 26.8%)

2458 ( - 49.4 %)

3945

3665 ( -7.0%)

3123 ( - 20.8 %)

2597 ( - 34.1 %)4367

3977 ( - 8.9%)

3145 ( - 27.9 %)

2307 (- 47.2 %)

4829

4403 ( - 8.8 %)

3379 (- 30.0 %)

2108 ( - 56.3 %)

4920

4576 ( - 6.9 %)

3686 ( - 25.0 %)

2365 (- 51.9 %)

6267

5688 ( - 9.2%)

5115 (-17.8%)

4534 ( - 27.6 %)

3985

3489 (- 12.4 %)

3056 ( - 23.3 %)

2340 ( - 41.2 %)

5989

5335 ( - 10.9 %)

4594 (- 23.3 %)

3400 ( - 43.2 %)

4156

3712 ( -10.6 %)

3012 (-27.5%)

2511 ( - 39.5 %)

4595

4045 ( - 11.9 %)

3508 ( - 23.6 %)

2977 (- 35.2%)

5262

4997 ( - 5.0 %)

4565 ( - 13.2%)

3181 ( - 39.5%)

3510

3254 ( - 7.3 %)

2875 ( - 18.0 %)

2234 ( - 36.3%)

4961

4612 ( -7.0 %)

3852 ( -22.4 %)

2956 ( - 40.4%)

4157

3684 ( - 11.3 %)

3023 ( - 27.2 %)

2643 ( - 36.4%)

Base

2020

2050

2080

Tamil

Nadu

- 8.7

-23.6

-42.2

Range

- 6.9 to 12.4

-13.2 to 38.3

-27.6 to 57.8

Impacts of changing climate on Maize production in Tamil Nadu

3992

3835 ( - 3.9 %)

3333 ( - 16.5 %)

2872 ( - 28.0%)

4294

4027 ( - 6.2 %)

3648 ( - 15.0 %)

3159 ( - 26.4%)

4880

4733 ( - 3.0 %)

4511 ( - 7.5 %)

4053 ( - 16.9%)

4575

4482 ( - 2.0 %)

4163 ( - 9.0 %)

3774 ( - 7.5 %)

4691

4600 ( - 1.9 %)

4277 ( - 8.8 %)

3558 ( - 24.1%)

3886

3803 ( - 2.1 %)

3477 ( - 10.5 %)

3139 ( - 19.2%)

5012

4857 ( - 3.0 %)

4488 ( - 10.4 %)

4019 ( - 19.8%)

4444

4367 ( - 1.7 %)

4142 ( - 6.7 %)

3777 ( - 15.0%)

4188

4066 ( - 2.9 %)

3874 ( - 7.4 %)

3428 ( - 18.1%)

Base

2020

2050

2080

Tamil Nadu

- 2.98

-10.1

-20.4

Range

- 1.7 to -6.2 %

-6.7 to 16.5 %

-7.5 to 28.0

Impacts of changing climate on Sorghum production in Tamil Nadu

924

895 ( - 3.1 %)

841 ( - 9.0 %)

755 ( - 18.3 %)

687

644 ( - 6.3 %)

569 ( - 17.2 %)

518 ( - 24.6 %)

1029

1000 ( - 2.8 %)

874 ( - 15.1 %)

772 ( - 25.0 %)

1215

1159 ( - 4.6 %)

1048 ( - 13.7 %)

924 ( - 23.9 %)

366

364 ( - 0.6 %)

333 ( - 9.0 %)

320 ( - 12.6 %)

1494

1382 ( - 7.4 %)

1116 ( - 25.3 %)

971 ( - 35.0 %)

360

352 ( - 2.4 %)

318 ( - 11.8 %)

277 ( - 23.2 %)

301

285 ( - 5.3 %)

241 ( - 19.9 %)

207 ( - 31.2%)

967

908 ( - 6.1 %)

825 ( - 14.7 %)

796 ( - 17.7 %)

1078

997 ( - 7.5 %)

872 ( - 19.1 %)

741 ( - 31.2 %)

857

844 ( - 1.5 %)

786 ( - 8.2 %)

654 ( - 23.6 %)

596

559 ( - 6.2 %)

482 ( - 19.1 %)

420 ( - 29.5%)

Base

2020

2050

2080

Tamil Nadu

- 4.6

-15.0

-24.6

Range

- 0.6 to -7.5

-8.2 to -25.3

-12.6 to -35.0

Adaptation assessment of Rice crop

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

CO2 +

Temperature

10 Days

delayed

planting

25%

additional

Nitrogen

No water

stress

Increasing

population by

20 %

Yield in Kg / ha

2000 2020 2050 2080

278529632855292226372080

392537773748368534852050

415943124336424441662020

448248624626471345632000

Increasing

population

by 20 %No water stress

25%

additional

Nitrogen

10 Days

delayed

plantingCO2 + Temp.Year

Open Top Chamber Facility at CRIDA, Hyderabad

• Under elevated CO2

conditions the initiation

of spike was early and

No. of female flowers

per spike were

increased

Impact of elevated CO2 on

Insect pests of Castor

Predictions of pink boll worm based on Thumb rule

Condition 2005 2071 2086 2100

Total rainfall in 32-40 SW

< 500 mm

√√√√

307.1

√√√√

380.4

√√√√

421.3

√√√√

266.8

Total rainfall in 41-52 SW

> 20 mm

√√√√

360.6

√√√√

63.5

√√√√

246.0

√√√√

278.0

Avg Max T 41-52 SW

< 33°C √√√√

28.1

X

29.8

√√√√

27.4

√√√√

29.4

Avg RH in 41-52 SW

> 70% √√√√

81.9

√√√√

60.6

√√√√

77.7

√√√√

81.9

Prediction Severe Moderate Severe Severe

Extension of oil sardine

fish populations (>50%)

to east-coast(the colored lines indicate

percentage of All India oil sardine

production)

SST pattern

along the

Indian CoastData Source : ICOADS and

AVHRR data from

NOAA/NASA

Climate change and Livestock

THI and Animal

Comfort/Stress

65 72 78 80

Comfortable Mild Stress Severe stress

Require Shelter Modification

Require Shelter and Microenvironment Modification

THI

Animal Comfort Level

June

198065 7

2 7

8

80

THI

Reference: Drawn on the basis of data of Hadley Centre U.K.

∆ ∆∆∆T June2020 W

ith Respect to 1980

65 72 78 80

THI

System of Rice Intensification (SRI) Cultivation

Traditional Rice cultivation

• Low seed rate 1 kg/ac

• Less than half the water required

• Crop duration reduced by one month (Nursery 8 days)

• Mostly managed with family labour

• No inorganic fertilizers (weeds are plowed back)

• Yield doubles

• Cost of cultivation reduced (low seed + low labour + no fertilizer)

• Scope for area/ crop diversification

Yield doubles

Eco friendly management CRIDA

• Reduces the nutrient loss to the

atmosphere

• Prolonged nutrient availability

• Enhances fertilizer use efficiency

• Sustenance of soil quality

Conjunctive use of Inorganic and Organic Nutrients for greater stability

Integrated Nutrient Management

Biofertilizers play a vital role

Rhizobium Azospirillum

AzotobacterAzolla

BGA

Eco friendly management

CRIDA

In-situ moisture conservation and water harvesting

Vegetative barrier

Percolation tankFarm pond

Conservation furrows

Contour trenching for runoff collection

Water Harvesting

On Farm Reservoir (OFR) technology in Chattisgarh, Orissa and Jharkhand created major impact on drought management during kharif

The Government of Chhattisgarh included this technology in the drought relief programme

Water Harvesting

Rs. 200/Cum

CRIDACRIDACRIDACRIDA

Water Harvesting

Rainwater stored in farm pond can be judiciously utilized using sprinkler- Anantapur

Prosopis juliflora has wide

adaptation to water stress and

drought conditions

Used as source material for

drought tolerant genesControl 36 days of water

withdrawal

Genetic Shield against adverse changes in precipitation

Preparing for climate change

Rice – Anchor of Food Security in an era of global warming

Biomass – an under- utilized

resource for enhancing income,

energy

and work security

Non-farm Employment

An Action Plan for the

Water Year 2007-08

(June 1, 2007 to May 31, 2008)

Aim : Mind set change from

quantity to the efficiency of

use

o National Water Prize (2007) :

Hiware Bazar Panchayat,

Ahmednagar Dist

Crop Mixture- Nutri Millets, Pulses and Oilseed

Enlarging the Food Basket

Gene Bank Seed Bank Water BankGrain Bank

Conservation - Cultivation

– Consumption - Commerce

Community Food Security System

Pathway to achieving the UN Millennium

Development Goal of Eradicating hunger and

poverty

Climate Management (Value added agro advisory service)

� Short, Medium and Long range of weather forecasts has

to be converted to location and farming systems specific

action plans

Information Technology in

Agrometeorological Strategies to

enhance food security

• Assess Past Impacts

• Develop good Monitoring

• Improve Forecasts/Scenarios

• Explore/Propose Responses

Socio-Economic

Scenarios

Climate Change

& Variability

Water

Food security

Agriculture

Livelihood

Livelihood Health

Coastal Zones Livelihood

Infrastructure

Forests

Livelihood

Natural

Ecosystems

Water &

Climate

Balancing Solutions and Constraints through

Integrated Assessments

New initiatives of ICAR

• A Network - ‘Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability of Indian Agriculture to Climatic Change’ launched in 2004

• Network expanded in 11th plan with 25 centers

• Multi-Disciplinary Expert Group established for planning and monitoring

• Climate change identified as a priority area for National Agricultural Innovations Project (NAIP) funding

• A National Conference on this theme was organized in October 2007 to prioritize thrust areas.

National Network: Impacts, Adaptation and

Vulnerability of Indian Agriculture to

Climatic Change

Thrust Areas

• Impact Assessment on demand and supply of food: crops, plantations, agro-forestry, soils, water, pests, fish, and livestock, equity, vulnerable ecosystems

• Adaptation strategies: drought/heat tolerant genotypes, improved farm management practices, change in land use, watershed management, agri-insurance

• Mitigation options: agro-forestry systems, resource conservation technologies, soil organic matter

Thank you