dr. heather lazrus dr. eve gruntfest warn on forecast kickoff workshop norman, ok february 18, 2010...
TRANSCRIPT
Dr. Heather LazrusDr. Eve Gruntfest
Warn on Forecast Kickoff WorkshopNorman, OK February 18, 2010
Social Science Contributions to Warn-on-Forecast
Vision Collaborative research & partnerships between the
social sciences & meteorology, climatology, & hydrology to enhance societal relevance of research & practice & reduce risks from atmospheric & other hazards
Mission Creatively & sustainably weave social science
concepts & methodologies into the fabric of weather & climate research & practice through academic & professional activities locally, nationally & globally
SSWIM www.sswim.orgSocial Science Woven into Meteorology
SSWIM’s three goals
1. To weave social science into the activities of the National Weather Center & elsewhere – not an “add –on”
2. To build a reputation as a center of social science research & practice in weather & climate work
3. To revolutionize the research to operations equation – so it’s no longer top-down & all partners play equal roles – decision-makers, forecasters, product designers and researchers
Social science - Weather and warning communication is complex and it is the domain of social scientists working in concert with those delivering the messages designed to save lives and property.
Diverse disciplines • Anthropology• Geography• Communication• Psychology• Political Science• Economics• Education• Linguistics
Diverse methodologies quantitative and qualitative
• Interviews– Structured– Semi-structured– Open interviews
• Surveys• Direct observations• Participatory activities• Focus groups
Some social science questions… • Who uses weather information?• When is weather information used?• Who could use weather information? • What is weather information worth?• How is weather information best communicated?
• i.e. twitter, radio, sirens, cell phones
• How is weather information & uncertainty understood• i.e. cultural models and linguistic barriers
• How is trust established? How is legitimacy judged?• How do people respond to weather information?• How is risk perceived?• How can behavior be motivated to reduce risk?• What makes people vulnerable to hazards?
Recent Research Relevant to WoFCommunicating Uncertainty in Weather Forecasts: A Survey of the U.S. Public (Morss, R.E., J. E. Demuth, and J.K. Lazo 2009) • When given a deterministic temperature forecast,
most respondents in a nationwide survey of the U.S. public expected the temperature to lie within a range around the predicted value.
• A significant majority of respondents prefered weather forecasts that expressed uncertainty.
Recent Research Relevant to WoFUncertainty Forecasts Improve Decision Making Among Nonexperts (Nadav-Greenberg, L. and S. Joslyn 2010)
• Uncertainty can be communicated effectively to non-expert end-users, resulting in improved decision-making, especially when people are familiar with the type of information (i.e. weather forecast)
Recent Research Relevant to WoF
Probability or Frequency? Expressing Forecast Uncertainty in Public Weather Forecasts (Joslyn, S.L., R. M. Nichols 2009)
• Non-expert participants in an experiment better understood wind speed forecasts when they were presented in a probability format rather than a frequency format.
PublicsWeather Forecasters
Media
Emergency Mgrs & 1st Responders
6
Developers
Researchers
Integrated Hazard Information Service (IHIS) Workshop:
Global Systems Division, HWT, SSWIM
• Interviews with 8 stakeholders to learn preferences for next generation warning tools & integrating their views into workshop agenda
• Developing graphics for changing Research-to-Operations dynamic
Putting it all together: Future relationships for developing effective warnings
Interactive relationships with all the hazardous weather decision makers = Changing the paradigm of hazardous weather warnings
PublicsPublicsWeather
Forecasters
Media
Emergency Mgrs & 1st Responders
6
Developers
Researchers
N-S
Spa
ce
Sca
le
E
-W
Time Scale
0 km
100 Km
1000 km
100 Km
1000 km
6lead
rea
l
Jan 31
5 4 3 2 1Feb 1 Feb 2 Feb
3Feb 4 Feb 5
First outlook issued
1st watch issued (2pm)
2nd watch issued (3pm)
1st warning issued 9pm
Nashville sirens sounded
13 fatalities44 injuries Near Lafayette, TN
Awareness raised among emergency managers, and other officials Hospitals, Schools,
Events?
26 tornado warnings issued8 severe storm warnings
Geographic space scales: Regional, State, Local
Are
a (K
m2 )
10 Km
10 Km
Future research is needed to fill in this timeline with a more representative sample of the decisions to be made and by whom
SSWIM WoF Collaboration
Objectives:
• Address informational needs and provide appropriate decision-support for decision-makers (inc. forecasters – public)
• Help assure that the tools and products are developed in socially relevant ways
• Initial stage:- Graduate Research Assistant degree in social science discipline
SSWIM WoF CollaborationVery preliminary research – based on present
warning paradigm (Hoekstra et al. 2010)
• The ideal lead-time, found to be 34.3 minutes, indicates that the general public may not need the 1-2 hours that warn on forecast would provide.
• When asked if there can be too much lead time, nearly 40% of the respondents stated “yes,” 23% of whom stating specifically 1-2 hours as being too much.
SSWIM WoF Collaboration
Potential Research Questions: • How can longer lead times and probabilistic
information revise the present warning - response paradigm?
• How does the communication variables of lead time and uncertainty relate to target population variables such as age, education, gender, income, and race?
• What are the preferred communication mediums for different target populations?
SSWIM WoF Collaboration
Looking forward:• Feedback from partners in the room today• Iterative process• New/unanticipated questions• Long-term and productive partnership
