dr joe brics draftdemographic transition and post – transition challenges in brics countries (with...
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Esta apresentação, exibida durante o seminário “População e Desenvolvimento na Agenda do Cairo: balanço e desafios”, aborda os desafios e oportunidades dos países dos BRICS, destacando itens como o envelhecimento da população, as taxas de mortalidade, de urbanização e migração. Detalhes em: www.sae.gov.brTRANSCRIPT
Partners in Population and Development (PPD)
Demographic transition and post – transition challenges in BRICS countries
(With specific reference to population ageing, mortality trends, urbanization and migration
Monday March 3, 2014 (09.00AM- 13.00)
(Discussant) Joe Thomas, PhD
Executive Director, PPD
Partners in Population and Development (PPD)
Outline
• Introduction
• Overall demographic profile of BRICS countries
• Population policies
• Certain common policy and program challenges
Partners in Population and Development (PPD)
Introductory notes
• An important initiative. (Health Diplomacy?)
• Methods- of discussion
• Population data in public domain- un even
• Delegates presentation structure and analysis also varied
Partners in Population and Development (PPD)
Partners in Population and Development (PPD)
Birth Rate (BR) and Death rate(DR)
• Death rate decreased in India and Brazil
• Birth rate decreased in every country except Russia
• Russia is the only country where birth and death both rate increased.
• Birth rate is still very high in India Brazil and SA
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
India (BR)
Brazil(BR)
Russia(BR)
China(BR)
SA (BR)
India (DR)
Brazil(DR)
Russia(DR)
China(DR)
SA(DR)
Birth rate (BR) and Death rate(DR) from 2000-2012
2012
2000
Birth rate (crude birth rate):Average annual number of births during a year per 1,000 population at midyear Death rate (crude death rate):Average annual number of deaths during a year per 1,000 population at midyear;
Partners in Population and Development (PPD)
Unmet need, CPR and Adolescent Fertility
6
21
2 14
77 73
56
87
60 72
26 36
9
53
0
20
40
60
80
100
Brazil Russia India China South Africa
Unmet need , CPR and Adoloscent
fertility rate
Unmet need CPR Adolescent fertility rate
• Unmet need is higher and CPR is lower in India and SA. Statistics for unmet need was not available for Russia
• Adolescent pregnancy is very high in Brazil and South Africa
Unmet need: Women with an unmet need for family planning are women aged 15 to 49, married or in union, who are fecund and sexually active but are not using any method of CPR: Contraceptive prevalence rate is the percentage of women who are practicing, or whose sexual partners are practicing, any form of contraception.; usually measured for married women ages 15-49 Adolescent Fertility rate: Adolescent fertility rate is the number of births per 1,000 women ages 15-19.
Partners in Population and Development (PPD)
Net Migration rate
(Difference between the number of persons entering and leaving a country during the year per 1,000 persons (based on midyear population).
-0,17
1,69
-0,05 -0,33
-6,24 -7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Brazil Russia India China South Africa
Net Migration/1000 pop
• Only Russia experience in migration
• Out migration is high is SA
• Though the rate shows low in the case of India and China, the actual number of out migration is vast due to their large number of population
• Gender segregated migration data is not available
Partners in Population and Development (PPD)
Urbanization
0
20
40
60
80
100
Brazil Russia India China South Africa
87%
73.8%
31.3%
50.6% 62%
Rate of Urbanization in BRICS countries
• All the countries are experiencing rapid urbanization
• More than 70% population in Russia and brazil lives in urban areas.
• Rapid growth of urbanization is an overall challenge for the countries
Urbanization is considered here urban population,( percentage of the total population living in urban areas, as defined by the country) and the rate of urbanization(the projected average rate of change of the size of the urban population over the given period of time.
Partners in Population and Development (PPD)
Gender Inequality index (GII)
0,44
0,31
0,61
0,21
0,46
0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa
Gender Inequality Index (GII) • China and Russia
performed much better in
comparison to the rest in
GII index.
Here the inequality measured with the combined result of inequality on reproductive health, empowerment and the labour market. To calculate this inequality MMR , Adolescent fertility rate, Female and male population with at least secondary level, Female and male shares for parliamentary seats , Female and male labour force participation rate The index shows the loss in potential human development due to inequality between female and male achievements in these dimensions. It varies between 0, where women and men fare equally, and 1, where either gender fares as poorly as possible in all measured dimensions. The country perform closure to 0, the closure they are in diminishing inequalities
Partners in Population and Development (PPD)
Trend of IMR and MMR
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
Trend of IMR
India
Brazil
Russia
China
SA
200
56 34 37
300
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
India Brazil Russia China SA
Status of MMR 2008-2010
2008
2010
IMR: Number of deaths of infants under one year old in a given year per 1,000 live births in the same year MMR: The maternal mortality rate (MMR) is the annual number of female deaths per 100,000 live births from any cause related to or aggravated by pregnancy or its management (excluding accidental or incidental causes). The MMR includes deaths during pregnancy,
childbirth, or within 42 days of termination of pregnancy, irrespective of the duration and site of the pregnancy, for a spec ified year.
Partners in Population and Development (PPD)
Population Policy Respone
• India: In 1952 India adopted Population policy for the first time, in 2000 India reviewed the population policy.
• China: In 1970 Chinese Government issued population policy, in 1979 the country adopted one child policy and in 2002 the country adopted population policy in the form of population and family planning law, marriage law and in 2013 radical revision in family care law.
• South Africa: South Africa adopted population policy in 1998
• Brazil: In 2007, the Federal Government launched its “National Family Planning Policy”
Partners in Population and Development (PPD)
• Monitoring the population dynamics of the BRICS countries.
• Monitoring the changing service needs/ profile of the national family planning programs
• Shared technical support among the BRICS countries to review their population policy in the post ICPD and MDG framework
• Explore the needs and opportunities for the sustainable MC exchange
• Potential of BRICS countries to influence the global agenda on RH and population development.
Policy and program challenges
Partners in Population and Development (PPD)
Challenges and opportunities
• International obligation of member countries (Signatory to population related global agreements)
• Need for specific data/ Gender disaggregated data, dialogue and in-depth analysis
• Post MDG/ ICPD challenges and opportunities, mid- term policy revision !?
• Inequity (urban- rural)
• Urbanization
• Ageing
• SRHR needs of adolescents and young people
• Migration and Immigration (Un documented migrants- skilled migrants. Gender issues
• Changing Family planning needs (women’s fertility- higher/lower- policy)
• Families – as a the basic social unit- under duress (Policy response)
• Dealing with the challenge of “the ideology of male superiority”
Partners in Population and Development (PPD)
THANK YOU
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