dr. jules presentation final
TRANSCRIPT
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GROWTH, COMPETITIVENESS & JOBS: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE CARIBBEAN
Caribbean Growth Forum 2015
Dr. Didacus JulesOECS
St. Lucia16th June 2015
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The Caribbean region’s interventions of the past decades aimed at spurring growth have not led to the expected outcomes.
Supply-side responses, focused on improving the overall investment climate and on removing obstacles to growth, have not generated the expected growth rates and employment levels.
World Bank 2015
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WHAT THEN?....
3 questions:
1. What have we been doing to achieve these things?2. What is required to achieve these things?3. What do we need to do differently if we are to achieve them?
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1. What have we been doing to achieve these things?
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1. What have we been doing to achieve these things?
Heavy reliance on foreign direct investment Pursuit on insular national agendas (trying to
create solutions in our own silos) Wage restraints, fiscal cuts Stimulus packages in areas such as
construction (but undermined by structural leakages in economy)
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2. What is required to achieve these things?
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2. What is required to achieve these things?
Long term vision without neglecting short term gains necessary build public confidence in its "do-ability"
Acceptance that there are no quick fixes or magic bullets - only a consistent slog along arduous roads sticking to the plan. The importance of process to progress. E.g ease of doing business: a diagnostic tool that we have treated as a terminal sentence.
A POLITICAL EQUATION
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2. What is required to achieve these things?
Growth = exports? Or is it:
Organic expansion involving better articulation/integration of economic sectors?
Is regaining market share of our own internal markets part of the new growth paradigm?
Addressing underlying competitiveness issues that affect business?
GROWTH: not just MORE but BETTER
Haque “Betterness: Econ. For Humans”
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2. What is required to achieve these things?
STRUCTURAL REFORM of economy an imperative:
Public sector efficiency Private sector capability – productive orientation The delicate balance between public interest
regulation/protection and market liberalization (decisive interventions to protect the poor & vulnerable)
New C21 opportunity not possible without modernization of sectors and processes
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2. What is required to achieve these things?
Special attention must be paid to labor – low skilled labor costs too high for type of manufacturing/production on one hand; on the other region losing higher skilled workers esp tech workers. What are schools producing?
An alignment of the regional and the national – address the diseconomies of scale especially in the productive sectors
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3. What do we need to do differently if we are to achieve them?
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Changing the mindset – move away from social scientific compartmentalism
Need for an ecological perspective on development
The return of
POLITICAL
ECONOMY
a different public
discourse on development
issues
if the problems are inter-related then
the solutions must be integrated
Connect jobs to
opportunity and mobility
3. What do we need to do differently if we are to achieve them?
Social compact on the way forward – national consensus
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GROWTH
COMPETITIVENESS
JOBS
Constant search for “models” for imitation Quantitative rather than qualitative increases Low skill, median pay employment Alignment of education with a low value job
market and not with high value possibilities Wage models not business models Not reshaping our institutional capacity –
you cannot build a new house on an old architecture and with outmoded processes
Attempts to develop industry constrained by economies of scale and size
3. What do we need to do differently if we are to achieve them?
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Regenerativ
e
Capacity
GROWTH
COMPETITIVENESS
JOBS
sustainability
EQUITY
decent work
sustainability
what differentiates us?
Address in
equality and so
cial ju
stice
without d
amaging economic
prosperity
doing it better, cheaper, faster
Entrepreneurship = self determination
steady and consistent
Individual mobility & opportunity
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Framework for Facilitating OECS Growth and Development
AgricultureHealthTourismEducationEmploymentCultureWell-being
ECONOMY-SOCIETY AS ECO-SYSTEM APPROACH
ENHANCED SECTORAL
LINKAGES
© macaulay.cuny.edu
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3. What do we need to do differently if we are to achieve them?
AGRICULTURE + TOURISM + EDUCATION + ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY LINKAGES
US$480M FOOD IMPORT BILL
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3. What do we need to do differently if we are to achieve them?
Opportunities are EVERYWHERE!
RETHINK
PPPFrom subvention mindset to self-reliance effort: the example of the OECS Coalition of Service IndustriesGovt subvention of EC$100K vs provision of outsourced services to Govt – EC$2M?
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A single economic space
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COUNTRYPOPULATION
2011/2012
GDP (Constant
2012 - Million US$)
PER CAPITA INCOME
(constant 2012 - US$)
World Bank Group - Ease
of Doing Business
Rank Anguilla 13,037 242.70 18,616.25 -Antigua & Barbuda 84,816 1,007.06 11,306.57 89
British Virgin Islands 28,280 593.85 32,155.00 -Dominica 71,293 450.16 6,279.80 97Grenada 106,667 683.40 6,478.72 126Montserrat 4,922 58.80 11,946.36 -St. Kitts & Nevis 46,204 599.49 11,187.92 121St. Lucia 166,526 1,085.80 6,003.19 100St. Vincent & the Grenadines 109,188 606.29 5,543.34 103OECS TOTALS 630,933 5,327.55 8,443.92 -Martinique 436,131 6,117.00 14,400.00 -Guadeloupe 452,776 3,513.00 7,900.00 -OECS Including French Territories
1,519,840 14,957.55 9,841.53
Jamaica N/A N/A 58Trinidad & Tobago 1,337,439 18,969.16 14,183.20 79Barbados 283,221 4,064.09 14,349.55 106ALL CARICOM 17,326,261 51,237.40 2,957.21 -
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3. What do we need to do differently if we are to achieve them?
create strategic value (sustainable and productive employment, intellectual capital development and
employee capability development) to ignite output growth
SAINT LUCIA STEP:
Home Caregivers
Jobs & elderly care
OECS Caribbean Seasonal Agric Workers
Program
2011-13: 1,800 workers; EC$60M
Francis 2015
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3. What do we need to do differently if we are to achieve them?
Human resource (PEOPLE) development as central to any sustainable future
People the most abundant “resource” Growth for what? – for social progress, cohesion,
opportunity An education revolution – talent, creativity, STEAM+
(science, technology, engineering, arts and mathematics plus
Caribbean History/Identity, soft skills)
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3. What do we need to do differently if we are to achieve them?
A targeted approach to national developmentUsing big data & GIS to identify geographic and sectoral interventions where they matter most
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3. What do we need to do differently if we are to achieve them?
Investing in ourselves: leveraging the diaspora and internal national resources
Diaspora economic investmentDiaspora significant intellectual capitalSelf reliant capital formationRevitalizing the OECS Stock Exchange
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3. What do we need to do differently if we are to achieve them?
Shaping a new more entrepreneurial and productive private sector Incentives needed to stimulateIncubate a new generation of entrepreneurs: youth – less risk averse and more adventurous.. New niche opportunities
Mechanisms for partnerships:Revitalizing the OECS stock exchangeJoint ventures driven by diplomatic business outreachAngel investment-crowd sourcing
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3. What do we need to do differently if we are to achieve them?
Using the OGDS as a unifying framework for synergizing national development efforts in the context of the single economic space
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Thank you