dr. klineberg on the changing houston demographics
TRANSCRIPT
The Changing Face of Houston:
Tracking Responses to the Economic and Demogra- phic Transformations through 32 Years of Surveys
Dr. Stephen Klineberg H.A.R. H-Town Day 201317 October 2013
on refining hydrocarbons into gasoline and petrochemicals and servicing the oil and gas industry.
Houston was basically a “one-horse” industrial town focused
1900-1982
2
(Robert Fisher 1990)
that seemed to represent, in fact or fantasy, an expansion of the public sector or a limitation on the economic prerogatives and activities of the city’s business community.”
“The ideological thrust in Houston in the twentieth century has been
anti-regulation,
anti-taxes,
anti-government,
anti-anything
3
anti-planning,
The 32nd Houston Area Survey (1982-2013)
More than three decades of
systematic interviews with
representative samples of
Harris County residents,
focused on three central
issues:
4
Two contrasting economic eras
The 30 years after World
War II were a period ofbroad-based prosperity.
The past 30 years have been marked by growing concentrations of wealth.
Percent increase in before-tax income
The 30 years after World War II (1949-1979)
The past 30 years (1979-2011)
Bottom 20%
Second 20%
Middle 20%
Fourth 20%
Top 20%
Top 5%
-10%
50%
110% 116%
100%
111% 114%
99%
86%
-3%
2% 5% 15%
43%
63%
5Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social And Economic Supplements. Mean Household Income Received By Each Fifth And The Top 5 Percent, Inflation Adjusted.© Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The New Economy
The new economy (2013)
The traditional “blue collar path” to financial security has now largely disappeared.
“For a person to be successful in today’s world, is it necessary to get an education beyond high school?”
73%“Or are there many
ways to succeed with no more than a high school diploma?”
25%
2% Don’t know/Can’t say
6Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey© Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The New Economy
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 130%
50%
100%
71%
36%
11%
42%
68%
43%
Positive perceptions of job opportunities in the Houston area (1982-2013)
35%
48%
Percent rating job opportunities as “excellent” or “good”
58%
of Houstonians in 1982 gave positive ratings to job opportunities in Houston.
66%
25%
41%
58%
7Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey (1982-2013)© Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The New Economy
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 133.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
The official unemployment rates in Harris County (1982-2013)
9.8 10.1
6.8
8.6 8.4
7.3
4.0 4.3
6.8
7.8
6.5
8Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey, U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unemployment rates are not seasonally adjusted.© Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
Hiking, boating,birding
Arts, culture, sports
Air and water qualityGreen spaces, trees
Urban centers
BayousTransportation
05 07 09 11 130%
50%
100%
17%
8% 9% 7% 6%
78%85% 86% 89% 90%
“Much/slightly worse”
Life in the Houston area compared to other U.S. metro areas(2005-2013)
“Compared to most other metropolitan areas in the country, is Houston a better or worse
place to live?”
“Much/slightly better”
10Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey (2005-2013)© Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
Quality of Place
The City of Houston2.1 million600 sq. mi.
Chicago2.7 million228 sq. mi.
Baltimore0.6 million81 sq. mi.
Philadelphia1.5 million134 sq. mi. Detroit
0.7 million139 sq. mi.
11Source: U.S. Census Bureau© Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
Quality of Place
The 10-county Houston metropolitan region5.9 million10,062 sq. mi.
New Jersey8.8 million8,729 sq. mi.
12Source: U.S. Census Bureau© Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
Massachusetts6.6 million10,550 sq. mi.
Quality of Place
201220102008
Housing preferences (2008-2012)
51%47% 39%58% 36%59%
Don’t know/Can’t say
A single-family home with a big yard,
where you would need to drive almost everywhere you want to go.
A smaller home in a more urbanized area, within walking distance of shops and workplaces.
"If you could choose where to live in the Houston area,
which would you prefer? "
13Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey© Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
Quality of Place
1978
© Alex MacLean
Quality of Place
2011
© Alex MacLean
The Demographic Revolution17
San DiegoLos Angeles
New York CitySan Francisco
Miami
Chicago
Houston
Major U.S. immigrant cities
Washington D.C.
Atlanta
Dallas
Boston
Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey© Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The Demographic Revolution18
Anglos
Blacks
Latinos
Asians
Anglos
Blacks
Latinos
AsiansAsians
Anglos
BlacksLatinos
Anglos
BlacksLatinosAsians
Anglos
BlacksLatinosAsians
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
Pop
ula
tio
n in
Mill
ion
s
15.5%
9.9%
20.1%
69.2%
0.8%
1,741,912
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
The demographic transformations of Harris County
Anglos
Blacks
Latinos
Asians
2,818,199
22.7%
19.1%
54.0%
4.1%
6.7%
32.9%
18.2%
42.1%
3,400,578
7.7%
18.4%
40.8%
33.0% 4,092,459
19.7%
62.7%
2.1%
15.5%
2,409,5471,243,258
6.0%
19.8%
73.9%
0.3%
Source: U.S. Census. Classifications based on Texas State Data Center Conventions. © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The Demographic Revolution19
Anglos
BlacksLatinosAsians
Anglos
BlacksLatinosAsians
Anglos
Blacks
LatinosAsians
Anglos
BlacksLatinosAsians
0
300,000
600,000
15.5%
The demographic changes in Fort Bend County and Montgomery County
53.8%
20.3%
19.5%
6.5%
1990
46.2%
19.6%
21.1%
13.1%
36.2%
21.1%
23.7%
19.0%
Anglos
Blacks
Latinos
Asians
2000
2010
1990
2000
2010
87.5%
4.2%7.3%
1.0%
225,421 354,452 585,375 182,201 293,768 455,746
Fort Bend County Montgomery County
71.2%
4.1%20.8%
4.0%
81.4%
3.4%12.6%
2.5%
Source: U.S. Census. Classifications based on Texas State Data Center Conventions. © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The Demographic Revolution
Harris County total population
Anglo majority
Black majority
Latino majority
No majority
20Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract.Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC© Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
1980
The Demographic Revolution
Harris County total population
21Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract.Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC© Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
Anglo majority
Black majority
Latino majority
No majority 1990
The Demographic Revolution
Harris County total population
22Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract.Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC© Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
Anglo majority
Black majority
Latino majority
No majority 2000
The Demographic Revolution
Harris County total population
23Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract.Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC© Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
Anglo majority
Black majority
Latino majority
No majority 2010
The Demographic Revolution24
0-4 5-9 10 - 14 15 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 29 30 - 34 35 - 39 40 - 44 45 - 49 50 - 54 55 - 59 60 - 64 65 +
21%
57%
79%
43%
All others
Non-Hispanic Whites
Percent of the population by age group and ethnicity in Harris County in 2010
24Source: Hobby Center for the Study of Texas© Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The Demographic Revolution25
0-4 5-9 10 - 14 15 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 29 30 - 34 35 - 39 40 - 44 45 - 49 50 - 54 55 - 59 60 - 64 65 +
32%
68%68%
32%
All others
Non-Hispanic Whites
Percent of the population by age group and ethnicity in the state of Texas in 2010
Source: Hobby Center for the Study of Texas© Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The Demographic Revolution26
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+
51%
80%
49%
20%
All Others
Non-Hispanic Whites
Percent of the population by age group and ethnicity in the United States in 2010
Source: Hobby Center for the Study of Texas© Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The Demographic Revolution27
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+
37%
59%63%
42%
All Others Non-Hispanic Whites
Percent of the population by age group and ethnicity in the United States in 2050
Source: Hobby Center for the Study of Texas© Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The Demographic Revolution28
09 11 13
51% 47%
61%
The new immigration
mostly strengthens
American culture.09 10 11 12 13
64% 66%71%
74%83%
For: granting a path to legal citizenship.
09 11 130%
90%
55% 55%
68%
Admit about the same or more
legal immigrants.
The shift in attitudes toward immigrants during the past four years (2009-2013)
Percent of respondents agreeing
Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey© Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The Demographic Revolution29
70+60-6950-5940-4930-3918-29
Source: 2007 and 2011 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey© Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
57% 61% 49% 42% 25% 10%
Anglo respondents who report having been in a romantic relationship with someone who was not
Anglo.
Inter-ethnic romantic relationships by age among Anglos (2007 and 2011 combined)
The Demographic Revolution
71%
74%
68%
61%
65%
43%
57%
60%
42%
48%
55%
35%
Percent of Anglo respondents agreeing, by ageEthnic
attitudes by age among Anglos(2007–2013 combined)
18-29
30-44
45-59
60+
The increasing ethnic diversity brought aboutby immigration is a “good thing,” rather than a “bad thing.”
Grant illegal immigrants a path to legal citizenship, if they speak English and have no criminal record.
The increasing immigration into the U.S. today mostly “strengthens,” rather than “threatens,” American culture.
30Source: 2007-2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey© Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
18-29
30-44
45-59
60+
18-29
30-44
45-59
60+
The Demographic Revolution
Houston will need to develop
into a truly successful
multiethnic society, with
equality of opportunity for all
communities, where all are
encour-aged to participate as
full partners in shaping the
region’s future.
Today’s pro-growth agenda
Houston will need to nurture
a far more educated and
technically- trained
workforce, and invest in the
research centers that will fuel
the engines of the new
economy.
The Houston region will need
to grow into a more appealing
urban destination, while
accommodating an expected
3.5 million additional residents
during the next 20 years.
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