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Trends and Factors Affecting Trends and Factors Affecting Economies and Business Success Economies and Business Success in Western Montana in Western Montana Dr. Larry Swanson Dr. Larry Swanson O’Connor Center for the Rocky Mountain West O’Connor Center for the Rocky Mountain West The University of Montana The University of Montana Status of Economic Recovery Population Growth and Aging Recent and Future Job Growth Patterns Positioning for Growth and Change Montana Business Success Forum Montana Business Success Forum Missoula, MT, May, 2013 Missoula, MT, May, 2013

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Trends and Factors Affecting Economies and Business Success in Western Montana

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Page 1: Dr. Larry Swanson

Trends and Factors Affecting Trends and Factors Affecting Economies and Business SuccessEconomies and Business Success

in Western Montanain Western Montana

Dr. Larry SwansonDr. Larry SwansonO’Connor Center for the Rocky Mountain WestO’Connor Center for the Rocky Mountain West

The University of MontanaThe University of Montana

Status of Economic Recovery

Population Growth and Aging

Recent and Future Job Growth Patterns

Positioning for Growth and Change

Montana Business Success ForumMontana Business Success Forum

Missoula, MT, May, 2013Missoula, MT, May, 2013

Trends and Factors Affecting Trends and Factors Affecting Economies and Business SuccessEconomies and Business Success

in Western Montanain Western Montana

Dr. Larry SwansonDr. Larry SwansonO’Connor Center for the Rocky Mountain WestO’Connor Center for the Rocky Mountain West

The University of MontanaThe University of Montana

Status of Economic Recovery

Population Growth and Aging

Recent and Future Job Growth Patterns

Positioning for Growth and Change

Montana Business Success ForumMontana Business Success Forum

Missoula, MT, May, 2013Missoula, MT, May, 2013

Page 2: Dr. Larry Swanson

Unemployment Rates for Montana vs. the U.S. as a whole The chart shows monthly unemployment rates for Montana versus nationally over a very long period covering the ‘80s, ‘90s, and since 2000. The nation seems to experience a major recession, or economic slowdown, about every ten years. The current one officially started in December of 2007. Unemployment nationally hit a peak in October of 2009 when it reached 10.0%. It has been ratcheting down since and fell to as low as 7.5% in April of 2013, which is the most recent data. Unemployment in Montana has consistently remained below national unemployment and reached a peak of 6.8% in July of 2010 where it remained for several months. It was 6.7% in August of 2011. The last time Montana had unemployment this high was in the late ‘80s. More recently unemployment in Montana has been falling, and was 5.6% in March, 2013, a full two percentage points lower than nationally.

Based upon monthly unemployment data, there is evidence of slow economic recovery nationally since late in 2009. While unemployment in Montana has remained consistently below the nation, the rate of unemployment has been steadily falling since late in 2011. So, unemployment in Montana has stayed well below the unemployment rate nationally and recovery is well established.

Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Over Time: MT vs. U.S., 1980-2013 (Mar.)

'82.12

'92.6

'03.6

'07.5

'09.10

'11.8

'83.3

'07.3

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

'80.1

'80.1

0'81

.7'82

.4'83

.1

'83.1

0'84

.7'85

.4'86

.1

'86.1

0'87

.7'88

.4'89

.1

'89.1

0'90

.7'91

.4'92

.1

'92.1

0'93

.7'94

.4'95

.1

'95.1

0'96

.7'97

.4'98

.1

'98.1

0'99

.7'00

.4'01

.1

'01.1

0'02

.7'03

.4'04

.1

'04.1

0'05

.7'06

.4'07

.1

'07.1

0'08

.7'09

.4'10

.1

'10.1

0'11

.7'12

.4'13

.1

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

U.S.

MT

Page 3: Dr. Larry Swanson

Month-to-Month Change in Employment Levels Nationally and in Montana The top chart shows monthly change in non-farm employment across the U.S. since the beginning of 2006 – about a five-year period. The lower chart shows the same data for Montana. The slowdown in the economy nationally revealed itself as a trough in employment change over a period from about May of 2008 through December of 2009. The recovery can be seen as beginning with employment growth in January of 2010. This employment growth has largely continued since, although there have been months where employment nationwide dipped once again. Employment change in Montana is shown in the lower chart. State employment decline began early in 2008 and continued through 2009. Recovery began early in 2010, but this recovery can be seen as “fragile,” and monthly growth in employment is not assured, as occurred in more recent months.

U.S. Monthly Employment Change, Seasonally Adjusted, 2006-2013 (April)(thous)

'07.11

'13.4

'12.9

'10.4

'09.11

'09.1

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

Montana Monthly Change in Seasonally Adjusted Employment, 2006 - 2013 (Mar.)

'13.1

'11.5

'10.2'07.11

'06.12 '11.11

'11.7

'08.6 '09.10

'09.1-3,300

-2,200

-1,100

0

1,100

2,200

'06.1

'06.4

'06.7

'06.1

0'07

.1'07

.4'07

.7

'07.1

0'08

.1'08

.4'08

.7

'08.1

0'09

.1'09

.4'09

.7

'09.1

0'10

.1'10

.4'10

.7

'10.1

0'11

.1'11

.4'11

.7

'11.1

0'12

.1'12

.4'12

.7

'12.1

0'13

.1'13

.4

Page 4: Dr. Larry Swanson

Trends in Quarterly Growth in Personal Income in Montana and Nationwide Another way of gauging conditions in the economy as a whole is by viewing quarter-to-quarter changes in total personal income. The chart at the right shows percentage changes in nominal income for both the U.S. and Montana from 2002 through the 4th quarter of 2012 (the most recent data nationally). Here it is easy to see the impact on income growth that resulted in the most recent economic slowdown. Personal income tends to grow nationally at about one to two percent a quarter (nominal growth), when the economy is functioning well. In some particularly good quarters, it can even grow as fast as 3% - which it did nationally in the first quarter of 2008. However, after that time, income growth plunged into negative territory and this slide bottomed out in the first quarter of 2009.

Quarter-to-Quarter Personal Income Change, Montana vs. US, 2002 - 2012 (4th Q)

2012.4

2011.2

2010.1

2008.2

2009.1

2008.1

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

2002

.2

2002

.3

2002

.4

2003

.1

2003

.2

2003

.3

2003

.4

2004

.1

2004

.2

2004

.3

2004

.4

2005

.1

2005

.2

2005

.3

2005

.4

2006

.1

2006

.2

2006

.3

2006

.4

2007

.1

2007

.2

2007

.3

2007

.4

2008

.1

2008

.2

2008

.3

2008

.4

2009

.1

2009

.2

2009

.3

2009

.4

2010

.1

2010

.2

2010

.3

2010

.4

2011

.1

2011

.2

2011

.3

2011

.4

2012

.1

2012

.2

2012

.3

2012

.4

2013

.1

2013

.2

Source: BEA, U.S. Commerce (nominal change)

U.S.

Montana

While income growth nationally and in Montana is once again positive. This growth remains uncertain on a quarter-by-quarter basis. Economy recovery is occurring, but it is fragile, particularly when viewing income change.

Page 5: Dr. Larry Swanson

Unemployment Rates among Rocky Mountain West States This chart shows unemployment rates, seasonally adjusted, for Montana and the U.S. as a whole in relation to other states in the Rocky Mountain West, including Colorado, Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming. All states in the region have followed the general trend in unemployment that has been occurring nationally. The unemployment rate rose to higher levels that other RMW states, approaching that of the nation as a whole. Unemployment in Montana, Wyoming, and Utah has been lower than that of both Colorado and Idaho. In the last year or more, unemployment has been falling fairly markedly in all of the RMW states. So, there is general improvement in the unemployment picture nationally and regionally. In 2007 prior to the national recession, unemployment in Utah, Wyoming, and Idaho had fallen below 3.0%. This is very low unemployment and could return in the next two to three years.

Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Among Rocky Mountain West States, 1980-2013 (Mar.)

'09.10

'07.3

'00.11

'92.6

'89.3

'82.12

'03.7

'07.4

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

'80.1

'80.1

0'81

.7'82

.4'83

.1

'83.1

0'84

.7'85

.4'86

.1

'86.1

0'87

.7'88

.4'89

.1

'89.1

0'90

.7'91

.4'92

.1

'92.1

0'93

.7'94

.4'95

.1

'95.1

0'96

.7'97

.4'98

.1

'98.1

0'99

.7'00

.4'01

.1

'01.1

0'02

.7'03

.4'04

.1

'04.1

0'05

.7'06

.4'07

.1

'07.1

0'08

.7'09

.4'10

.1

'10.1

0'11

.7'12

.4'13

.1

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

U.S. MT WY

ID CO UT

Page 6: Dr. Larry Swanson
Page 7: Dr. Larry Swanson

Regional and Sub-Regional Patterns in U.S. Unemployment The maps show varying levels of unemployment across the United States. The top map shows county-level unemployment prior to the economic slowdown, which began in 2007 (July, 2006). The lower map shows unemployment in October of 2009 when unemployment nationally peaked at around 10%. In 2006 Montana and its surrounding region had fairly tight labor markets and low unemployment rates. It was a time when wage and salary rates had begun to rise more rapidly in Montana than nationally. As the recession deepened in 2008 and 2009, unemployment deepened and spread. Unemployment rates in the central and northern Plains region have been the lowest throughout.

July, 2006

October, 2009

Page 8: Dr. Larry Swanson

Unemployment Trends in Missoula & Ravalli Cos., 1992 – 2013 The top chart shows monthly totals of the number of persons unemployed in both Missoula and Ravalli Counties over time. In both counties, unemployment reached its lowest level in September of 2006 and then increased to hit peaks in January of 2011. Unemployment has been gradually working its way down since then, but remains high. The lower chart shows unemployment rates for both of these counties. Unemployment in Ravalli County rose to as high as 11% in January of 2011. More recently it was just above 8%. In Missoula County, the unemployment rate never rose as high as 8% and is now at around 6%.

Total Unemployment, Missoula Co., 1992 - 2013 (March)

'06.9

'11.1

'06.9

'11.1

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

'92.

5

'93.

2

'93.

11

'94.

8

'95.

5

'96.

2

'96.

11

'97.

8

'98.

5

'99.

2

'99.

11

'00.

8

'01.

5

'02.

2

'02.

11

'03.

8

'04.

5

'05.

2

'05.

11

'06.

8

'07.

5

'08.

2

'08.

11

'09.

8

'10.

5

'11.

2

'11.

11

'12.

8

Missoula

Ravalli

Monthly Unemployment Rate, Missoula & Ravalli Cos., 1992-2013

'11.1

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

'92.

5

'93.

2

'93.

11

'94.

8

'95.

5

'96.

2

'96.

11

'97.

8

'98.

5

'99.

2

'99.

11

'00.

8

'01.

5

'02.

2

'02.

11

'03.

8

'04.

5

'05.

2

'05.

11

'06.

8

'07.

5

'08.

2

'08.

11

'09.

8

'10.

5

'11.

2

'11.

11

'12.

8

Missoula

Ravalli

Page 9: Dr. Larry Swanson

Labor Force and Employment Growth in Missoula & Ravalli Cos., 1992 to 2013 The top chart shows month-to-month change in the total number of persons in the labor force of Missoula County and the total number of these that were employed. The lower chart shows the same information for Ravalli County. Both counties experienced almost uninterrupted labor force and employment growth from the early ‘90s until the recent recession, which hit Missoula County in November of 2008 and hit Ravalli County in June of the same year. Employment then slumped in both counties until stabilizing in 2010. While employment is now growing again in Missoula County, Ravalli County employment growth remains slow.

Missoula Co. Labor Force & Employment, 1992-2013

'08.11

'09.1

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

'92.

5

92.12

'93.

7

'94.

2

'94.

9

'95.

4

'95.

11

'96.

6

'97.

1

'97.

8

'98.

3

'98.

10

'99.

5

'99.

12

'00.

7

'01.

2

'01.

9

'02.

4

'02.

11

'03.

6

'04.

1

'04.

8

'05.

3

'05.

10

'06.

5

'06.

12

'07.

7

'08.

2

'08.

9

'09.

4

'09.

11

'10.

6

'11.

1

'11.

8

'12.

3

'12.

10

Labor Force

Employed

Ravalli Co. Labor Force & Employment, 1992-2013 (Mar.)

'08.6

'09.2

7,000

9,000

11,000

13,000

15,000

17,000

19,000

21,000

'92.

5

'93.

1

'93.

9

'94.

5

'95.

1

'95.

9

'96.

5

'97.

1

'97.

9

'98.

5

'99.

1

'99.

9

'00.

5

'01.

1

'01.

9

'02.

5

'03.

1

'03.

9

'04.

5

'05.

1

'05.

9

'06.

5

'07.

1

'07.

9

'08.

5

'09.

1

'09.

9

'10.

5

'11.

1

'11.

9

'12.

5

'13.

1

Labor Force

Employed

Page 10: Dr. Larry Swanson

Employment Growth among U.S. States, 1998 to 2008 This chart compares the relative rate of growth in employment among all states during this recent ten-year period. Nationally, total employment grew by 14.7% between 1998 and 2008, keeping in mind that the national economic recession officially began in December, 2007. Employment grew by 21.4% in Montana during this period, ranking it 8th among all states in employment growth. Employment growth among all five of the Rocky Mountain West states was fairly strong during this period. In fact all five states ranked among the top ten in employment growth.

Percentage Growth in Total Employment (All Jobs) among States, 1998 to 2008

14.7%

20.3%

21.4%

28.0%29.3%

30.1%

44.8%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

MichiganOhio

IndianaWestVirginiaMississippi

IllinoisIow a

MissouriKansas

MassachusettKentuckyArkansasNebraskaLouisiana

WisconsinRhodeIsland

PennsylvaniaAlabama

TennesseeMinnesota

ConnecticutMaine

OklahomaVermontNew York

NorthDakotaCalifornia

USSouthDakota

Delaw areNew Jersey

OregonNew Hampshire

Dist of ColumNorthCarolinaSouthCarolina

VirginiaMaryland

Haw aiiWashington

AlaskaNew Mexico

ColoradoGeorgia

MontanaTexas

FloridaIdaho

WyomingUtah

ArizonaNevada

Page 11: Dr. Larry Swanson

Labor Force Expansion Patterns Nationwide

Page 12: Dr. Larry Swanson
Page 13: Dr. Larry Swanson

Areas of Rapid Population Growth or Decline The maps show the larger patterns of population growth in the last two decades. Growth in Montana is heavily focused in the west, but growth in the larger region has slowed in the more recent decade and concentrated.

Page 14: Dr. Larry Swanson
Page 15: Dr. Larry Swanson
Page 16: Dr. Larry Swanson
Page 17: Dr. Larry Swanson

Population Trends Over Time in Missoula and Ravalli Counties The population of Missoula County in July, 2011, is estimated at 110,138. This is up from 109,443 in 2010 (gain of 695) which was up from 108,717 in 2009 (gain of 726). Ravalli County’s 2011 estimate is 40,450, up only slightly from 40,343 in 20101 (gain of 107) which was up from 39,956 in 2009 (gain of 387). In both counties, growth was relatively strong in the ‘70s, slowed and flattened in the ‘80s, and then strong again in the ‘90s. Between 2000 and 2011, the rate of growth slowed considerably. Annual percentage growth in the counties is shown in the lower chart. Annual population growth in Missoula County was 1.5% in 2008, but each year since has been less than one percent. It should range from .5 to 1.0% a year over the next five years. Ravalli County is likely to grow at a similar annual rate.

Total Population Over Time, Missoula & Ravalli Counties, 1969 - 2011

110,138

58,472

76,352

93,151

77,995

40,45034,041

25,06824,426

14,543

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

'69

'71

'73

'75

'77

'79

'81

'83

'85

'87

'89

'91

'93

'95

'97

'99

'01

'03

'05

'07

'09

'11

Missoula

Ravalli

Yearly Percentage Pop. Change in Missoula & Ravalli Cos., 1970 - 2011

2.0%

'78, 7.0%

'94, 5.9%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

'70

'72

'74

'76

'78

'80

'82

'84

'86

'88

'90

'92

'94

'96

'98

'00

'02

'04

'06

'08

'10

'12

Missoula Ravalli

Page 18: Dr. Larry Swanson

Population Growth in Missoula and Ravalli Counties Over Time in Relation to Growth Statewide in Montana This chart show annual percentage change in the total populations of Ravalli and Missoula Counties in comparison to growth by Montana as a whole. In most years, population growth in the two counties greatly exceeds growth statewide, with most of Montana’s population growth occurring in the western mountain region.

Annual % Population Change: MT vs. Missoula & Ravalli Cos., 1980 - 2011

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

'81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12

Source: U.S. Census Bureau July 1 Estimates

Missoula Ravalli .Montana

Page 19: Dr. Larry Swanson

Area Population Distribution in Montana and the Larger Region: 2010 This map shows population mapped at the Census “block” level using 2010 Census data. In 2010 approximately 78% of Montanans lived within 50 miles of the state’s seven largest cities or urban centers, up from 73% in 2000. Going forward, population growth will continue to concentrated near these centers and economic and employment growth in Montana will be increasingly “urban in character.”

Page 20: Dr. Larry Swanson

Population within 50 Miles of Major Cities in 2000 At the time of the 2000 Census, Montana had a population of about 902,000 people. The map shows the distribution of this population in Montana and surrounding areas. Of the 902,000 state residents, a little over 670,000 lived within 50 miles of Montana’s seven largest cities or urban centers, including Billings (142,000), Missoula (141,000), Kalispell (95,000), Great Falls (87,000), Bozeman (83,000), Helena (68,000), and Butte (67,000). This largely “urban-based population” represented about 74% of Montana’s entire population state-wide.

Page 21: Dr. Larry Swanson

Area Population Distribution in Montana and the Larger Region: 2010 This map shows population mapped at the Census “block” level using 2010 Census data. In 2010 approximately 78% of Montanans lived within 50 miles of the state’s seven largest cities or urban centers, up from 73% in 2000. Going forward, population growth will continue to concentrated near these centers and economic and employment growth in Montana will be increasingly “urban in character.”

Page 22: Dr. Larry Swanson

Population Distribution in Montana within Urban 50-Mile Zones The upper chart shows the total number of people residing within 50 miles of Montana’s seven major cities in 2000 and ten years later in 2010. The population within 50 miles of Billings grew from 142,000 in 2000 to over 161,000 in 2010, an increase of almost 20,000. This area population for Missoula grew from 140,000 to almost 160,000. The lower chart focuses on growth in these area populations over this recent ten-year period with some of the figures reduced from those in the map, to account for areas where the circles overlap (and double count populations in these overlapping areas). The Bozeman urban zone had the largest increase at 22,400, followed by increases in Billings, Missoula, and Kalispell – all with gains of 18,000 to 20,000. Helena also had a significant increase. These five urban and urbanizing centers accounted for nearly all of the state’s population growth in this most recent ten-year period between Censuses.

Population within 50-Mile Zones of Major Cities, 2000 vs. 2010

141,972 140,870

95,54183,024

68,144

161,389 159,603

113,817105,441

87,41277,686

67,106

229,961

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Billings Missoula Kalispell Bozeman Great Falls Helena Butte Rest of MT

Source: Swanson using Census data (there is some overlap in these zones by several cities)

2000 2010

Population Growth by Zone, 2000 to 2010

22,417

19,417 18,733 18,276

9,542

75153

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Bozeman Billings Missoula Kalispell Helena Great Falls Butte Rest of MT

Page 23: Dr. Larry Swanson
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Page 25: Dr. Larry Swanson

 

Page 26: Dr. Larry Swanson

Montana’s 2010 Pop Distribution, West-to-East The top chart shows the total population of each county in 2010, with western counties to the left, central front counties in the center, and eastern plains counties at the right. Montana’s seven urban counties are color-coded in dark blue (Yellowstone), dark green (Missoula and Cascade), and dark yellow (Flathead, Gallatin, Lewis & Clark, and Silver Bow). The lower chart then shows how population changed in Montana from 2000 to 2010. Population growth is concentrated in western Montana and in and nearby the state’s urban centers. More and more of Montana’s economy is “urban” in character and could not exist absent these growing centers.

Montana 2010 Population Distribution, West-to-East & Urban-to-Rural

PARK LINCOLN

LAKE SILVER BOW

RAVALLI

LEWIS & CLARK

GALLATIN FLATHEAD

MISSOULA

GLACIER

CASCADE

YELLOWSTONE

CUSTER HILL

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

MIS

SOULA

FLATH

EAD

GALLATIN

LEW

IS &

CLA

RK

RAVALLI

SILVER B

OW

LAKE

LINCOLN

PARK

SANDERS

JEFF

ERSON

CARBON

DEER LODGE

BEAVERHEAD

STILLW

ATER

MADIS

ON

POWELL

BROADWATE

R

MIN

ERAL

SWEET

GRASS

GRANITE

MEAGHER

YELLOW

STONE

CASCADE

GLACIE

R

BIG H

ORN

FERGUS

PONDERA

TETON

CHOUTEAU

TOOLE

MUSSELS

HELL

WHEATLA

ND

JUDIT

H BASIN

GOLDEN V

ALLEY

PETROLEUM

HILL

CUSTER

ROOSEVELT

RICHLA

ND

ROSEBUD

DAWSON

VALLEY

BLAIN

E

PHILLIP

S

SHERIDAN

FALLON

LIBERTY

DANIELS

POWDER R

IVER

MCCONE

GARFIELD

PRAIRIE

CARTER

WIB

AUX

TREASURE

Montana Population Change by County, West-to-East, Urban-to-Rural, 2000-10

FLATHEAD

GALLATIN

LEWIS & CLARK

RAVALLI

LAKE

MISSOULA

CASCADE

YELLOWSTONE

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

MIS

SOULA

FLATH

EAD

GALLATIN

LEW

IS &

CLA

RK

RAVALLI

SILVER B

OW

LAKE

LINCOLN

PARK

SANDERS

JEFF

ERSON

CARBON

DEER LODGE

BEAVERHEAD

STILLW

ATER

MADIS

ON

POWELL

BROADWATE

R

MIN

ERAL

SWEET

GRASS

GRANITE

MEAGHER

YELLOW

STONE

CASCADE

GLACIE

R

BIG H

ORN

FERGUS

PONDERA

TETON

CHOUTEAU

TOOLE

MUSSELS

HELL

WHEATLA

ND

JUDIT

H BASIN

GOLDEN V

ALLEY

PETROLEUM

HILL

CUSTER

ROOSEVELT

RICHLA

ND

ROSEBUD

DAWSON

VALLEY

BLAIN

E

PHILLIP

S

SHERIDAN

FALLON

LIBERTY

DANIELS

POWDER R

IVER

MCCONE

GARFIELD

PRAIRIE

CARTER

WIB

AUX

TREASURE

Page 27: Dr. Larry Swanson

Labor Force Distribution in Montana, West-to-East and Urban-to-Rural The upper chart shows how the labor force was distributed across Montana prior to declines in the labor force and employment brought on by the economic downturn. Counties are arrayed in the chart from left (western counties) to right (eastern counties), with counties in the central front in the middle. Within each of these three groupings, counties are also arrayed from urban (most populated counties and counties nearby them) to rural (less populated and isolated). The lower chart shows how the labor force grew across these regional county groupings from January of 2000 to August of 2008. In this recent period of economic growth in Montana, labor force expansion has been heavily nearby the urban centers.

Labor Force Distribution in Montana, West-to-East, Urban-to-Rural, Aug. 2008

CUSTER GLACIER HILL LAKE

RAVALLI

LEWIS & CLARK

FLATHEAD GALLATIN

MISSOULA

CASCADE

YELLOWSTONE

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

Labor Force Expansion by Montana Counties, January, 2000, to August, 2008

SWEET GRASS MADISON PARK RICHLAND

SILVER BOW RAVALLI

LEWIS & CLARK

FLATHEAD

GALLATIN

MISSOULA

GLACIER

CASCADE

YELLOWSTONE

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Page 28: Dr. Larry Swanson

Labor Force Distribution in Montana, West-to-East and Urban-to-Rural The chart below shows how the labor force in Montana was distributed across the state’s counties prior to declines in the labor force and employment brought on by the economic downturn. Counties are arrayed in the chart from left (western counties) to right (eastern counties), with counties in the central front region in the middle. Within each of these three regional groupings, counties are also arrayed from urban (most populated counties and counties nearby them) to rural (less populated and isolated).

Labor Force Distribution in Montana, West-to-East, Urban-to-Rural, Aug. 2008

CUSTER GLACIER HILL LAKE

RAVALLI

LEW IS & CLARK

FLATHEAD

GALLATIN

MISSOULA

CASCADE

YELLOW STONE

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

MIS

SO

UL

A

G

AL

LA

TIN

FL

AT

HE

AD

LE

WIS

& C

LA

RK

RA

VA

LL

I

SIL

VE

R B

OW

LA

KE

P

AR

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LIN

CO

LN

JEF

FE

RS

ON

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AR

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N

B

EA

VE

RH

EA

D

SA

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ER

S

S

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LW

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N

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EE

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S

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S

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AIN

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ILL

IPS

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OW

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IVE

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D

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GA

RF

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Page 29: Dr. Larry Swanson

Labor Force Expansion Across MontanaThe chart shows how the labor force grew across these regional county groupings from January of 2000 to August of 2008. In this recent period of economic growth in Montana, labor force expansion has been heavily concentrated in and nearby urban centers.

Labor Force Expansion by Montana Counties, January, 2000, to August, 2008

SWEET GRASS MADISON PARK RICHLAND

SILVER BOW

RAVALLI

LEWIS & CLARK

FLATHEAD

GALLATIN

MISSOULA

GLACIER

CASCADE

YELLOWSTONE

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

MISSO

ULA

GA

LLAT

IN

FLAT

HEAD

LEWI

S & C

LARK

RA

VALL

I

SILV

ER B

OW

LAKE

PA

RK

LINC

OLN

JEFF

ERSO

N

CA

RBON

BEAV

ERHE

AD

SAND

ERS

ST

ILLWA

TER

MAD

ISON

DEER

LOD

GE

SW

EET

GRAS

S

POWEL

L

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DWAT

ER

MINER

AL

GR

ANITE

MEA

GHER

YELL

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TONE

CASC

ADE

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RGUS

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N

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N

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CHOU

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PO

NDER

A

MUS

SELS

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ATLA

ND

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UM

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STER

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LAND

DA

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EVEL

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VA

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BLAINE

PHILLIPS

FA

LLON

SHER

IDAN

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ONE

POWDE

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VER

DA

NIELS

CART

ER

LIBE

RTY

GA

RFIELD

PRAIRIE

WIBAU

X

TR

EASU

RE

Page 30: Dr. Larry Swanson

Montana’s 2010 Population Distribution, West-to-East In interpreting past and future job growth patterns in Montana it important to view how the state’s population is distributed from west-to-east and between urban areas and rural. The chart shows the total population of each county in 2010, with western counties to the left, central front counties in the center, and eastern plains counties at the right. Montana’s seven urban counties are color-coded in dark blue (Yellowstone), dark green (Missoula and Cascade), and dark yellow (Flathead, Gallatin, Lewis & Clark, and Silver Bow).

Montana 2010 Population Distribution, West-to-East & Urban-to-Rural

PARK LINCOLN

LAKE SILVER BOW

RAVALLI

LEW IS & CLARK

GALLATIN FLATHEAD

MISSOULA

GLACIER

CASCADE

YELLOW STONE

CUSTER HILL

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

MIS

SO

UL

A

F

LA

TH

EA

D

GA

LL

AT

IN

L

EW

IS &

CL

AR

K

RA

VA

LL

I

SIL

VE

R B

OW

LA

KE

L

INC

OL

N

PA

RK

S

AN

DE

RS

JEF

FE

RS

ON

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AR

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WA

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Page 31: Dr. Larry Swanson

Population Growth Across Montana, 2000-10Population growth is concentrated in western Montana and in and nearby the state’s urban centers. More and more of Montana’s economy is “urban” in character and could not exist absent these growing centers.

Montana Population Change by County, West-to-East, Urban-to-Rural, 2000-10

FLATHEAD

GALLATIN

LEW IS & CLARK

RAVALLI

LAKE

MISSOULA

CASCADE

YELLOW STONE

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

MIS

SO

UL

A

F

LA

TH

EA

D

GA

LL

AT

IN

LE

WIS

& C

LA

RK

RA

VA

LL

I

SIL

VE

R B

OW

LA

KE

L

INC

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N

PA

RK

S

AN

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FE

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ON

CA

RB

ON

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ER

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WA

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MA

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Page 32: Dr. Larry Swanson

Past and Projected Trends in Annual Births & Deaths in Montana The chart shows annual births and deaths in Montana dating back to the mid-40s and extending up through 2011 (actual records). Birth estimates for 2012 through 2030 are from projections made by the U.S. Census Bureau in 2005. Death projections are made by Swanson and are based upon projections for the size of the 65 and older population in future years and on past and future estimates of deaths as a function of the 65 and older population. The number of persons 65 and older in Montana is projected to increase by about 70% from 2010 to 2025 and this increase is what accounts for the steady and rapid rise in the annual number of deaths. Persons born in 1957 at the height of the birth in Boomers were 53 in 2010 and will be 63 in 2020 and 73 in 2030. So, as the Boomer generation continues to age over time past their 60s

and into their 70s and beyond, annual deaths will rise with this trend slowing sometime after 2030.

Annual Births and Deaths in Montana - Actual (1945-2011) and Projected (2012-2030)

'45

'73

'99

'06

'82

'57

'10

'25

'30

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

'45 '48 '51 '54 '57 '60 '63 '66 '69 '72 '75 '78 '81 '84 '87 '90 '93 '96 '99 '02 '05 '08 '11 '14 '17 '20 '23 '26 '29

Source: Actual (Montana Vital Statistics, 2011) and Projected (births, U.S. Census Bureau, March, '05; deaths: Larry Swanson, OCRMW)

Actual Projected

Deaths Projected

Page 33: Dr. Larry Swanson

Population Aging in Montana The top chart below shows the population of Montana at the time of the 2000 and 2010 Censuses arrayed by the number of persons at each age, from youngest to oldest. The state’s overall population grew from 902,195 to 989,415 during this period; an increase 87,220 or 9.7%. Growth the previous decade of the ‘90s was 12.8% and growth projected for 2010 to 2020 is around 8% (Swanson, Apr., 2012). Growth is slowing in part because the population is aging and this can be seen below. The lower chart then looks at change in population by age.

Montana's Populaton by Single Age, Youngest-to-Oldest, 2000 vs. 2010

1542

85+

25

52

0

6,000

12,000

18,000

24,000

0 3 6 9 12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

39

42

45

48

51

54

57

60

63

66

69

72

75

78

81

84

Source: U.S. Population Censuses

2000 2010

Montana Population Change by Single Age, 1990-2000 & 2000-2010

48

17

85+

3

58

27

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

0 3 6 9 12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

39

42

45

48

51

54

57

60

63

66

69

72

75

78

81

84

'90-'00 '00-'10

Page 34: Dr. Larry Swanson

Projected Shifts in the Population of Montana by Age

The upper chart shows how population changed in Montana by single age from youngest to oldest between 1990 and 2000. The lower chart shows how population is projected to change by the U.S. Census Bureau (March, 2005, projections) between 2000 and 2010.

The growth in population that was concentrated among persons between their early 40s and late 50s in the ‘90s is projected to be concentrated between persons in their early 50s to late 60s in the current decade.

The echo population also will continue to age, shifting growth to persons between their early 20s and mid-30s. And during the current decade the “echo-echo” population will come into being, reflected in the recent increase in births.

Montana Population Change by Age: 1990 to 2000

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84

-5,000

-2,500

0

2,500

5,000

7,500

Montana Projected Pop. Change by Age: 2000 to 2010

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84

-5,000

-2,500

0

2,500

5,000

7,500

Page 35: Dr. Larry Swanson

Projected Popu-lation Growth by Age in the Next Decade – 2010 to 2020

The chart at the right shows how Montana’s population is projected to change by age between 2010 and 2020. During the next decade growth in the state’s population will shift to persons in their early 60s to late 70s and Montana is in fact projected to have one of the largest populations 65 and older as a percent of its total by 2020.

The echo group or the children of boomers is shown in growth among persons from their early 30s to mid 40s. However, this echo group is projected by the Census Bureau to be much smaller than the boomer group. In turn, the “echo-echo” group is projected to be much smaller than the echo group.

As we look out in front of us, we can see that population growth will continue to manifest itself in ripples and waves, with each successive wave of growth smaller than its immediate predecessor. This pattern of growth has significant implications. The fastest growth will occur among seniors and health care demand will continue to rise and housing needs will change. The number of persons at will move up and down at ages where college students are primarily drawn, as well as for high schools and elementary schools. The labor force of Montana will very likely shrink in size in the future as more and more persons leave the workforce for retirement and there are not enough persons entering the workforce to replace them.

Montana Projected Pop. Change by Age: 2010 to 2020

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84

-5,000

-2,500

0

2,500

5,000

7,500

Page 36: Dr. Larry Swanson

Future Population Change in Montana by Age Group

Projected aging of Montana’s population over the next 20 years can be viewed by examining how the population is expected to change by age grouping. The upper chart shows the population under 18 (high school and younger), the population 18 to 33 (young post-high school adults and those at ages of family formation and childrearing), the population 34 to 49 (young and middle-age adults), the population 50 to 64 (older adults at pre-retirement ages), and the population 65 and older.

The older adult working age population between 50 and 64, which saw massive growth in the ‘90s will also see very high growth in the current period before beginning a decline. And the 65 and older population, which grew by only 13% in the ‘90s, will grow by 20%, 46%, and 27% in the subsequent three decades.

As a result of these age shifts, Montana will have one of the largest populations over 65 of any state in the country in future years.

Projected Montana Population by Age Group

215,516215,351

191,309

160,909

192,115

129,243

247,769

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

220,000

240,000

260,000

280,000

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005

0-17 18-33 34-49 50-64 65+

Projected Percent Pop. Change by Age Grouping, Montana

3%

-8%

3%

-4%

0%

10%

-14%

-5%

22%

-13%

9%

-1%

39%

49%

-4%-8%

13%

20%

46%

27%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

'90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

0-17

18-33

34-49

50-64

65+

Page 37: Dr. Larry Swanson

Regional Patterns of Population Aging in the U.S. – 65 and Over Population as a share of the total The 65 and older population in Montana was 13.3% of the total in 1990, 13.4% in 2000, and 14.8% in 2010. By 2020 this will rise to 20% and to nearly 24% by 2025. Some areas are growing older more rapidly and this aging process will accelerate over the next 20 years as more and more “boomers” move past 65 years of age. Population aging will slow the growth in the labor force. [Note: data used in the maps are from the 1990 and 2010 Population Censuses]

Page 38: Dr. Larry Swanson

Population Aging Among Rocky Mountain West States The chart shows the percent of the total population 65 and older for five Rocky Mountain West states and for the U.S. All of the Rocky Mountain West states have been adding population through net in-migration and, sometimes, this can result in the population of an area being “younger” than others without such in-migration. But it depends upon what age groups the in-migrants and out-migrants are from. Montana and Wyoming are tending to age more rapidly than other Rocky Mountain states because they both have tended to add older adults (boomers) while losing younger adults, and this has tilted their overall age profiles. Montana’s population is currently oldest among these five states with 14.6% of the total 65 and older. By 2030 this is projected to increase to nearly 26%.

The U.S. population as a whole is aging and this aging will accelerate as the large boomer population continues to age. The 65 and older population will increase from around 13% in 2010 to almost 20% nationwide in 2030.

Past & Projected Population Aging for Mountain West States, 1990 - 2030

10.9%

9.0%

12.4%

14.8%

12.4%13.0%

16.5%

13.2%

18.3%

25.8%26.5%

19.7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Colorado Utah Idaho Montana Wyoming U.S.

Source: Population Censuses & U.S. Census Bureau Projections (2005)

'90 '00 '10 '30

Page 39: Dr. Larry Swanson

States ordered by Population that is 65 and older The chart shows the percent of the total population of each state in 2010 and 1990 that is 65 years of age and older. States in the Rocky Mountain West are shown with purple bars for their 2010 values. Southwestern states are shown with gold bars. Montana’s 65 and older population rose to 14.8% of the total in 2010, up from 13.3% in 1990. By contrast Colorado’s rose from 10.0% to 10.9%. The share of the population 65 and older did not increase in all of the states between these two years, largely because the large boomer population is only reaching age 65 and older in recent years. However, going forward into the future, this elderly population will grow more rapidly and its share of the total will rise in almost all of the states.

U.S. States by 65 & Older Population as Share of Total, 2010 & 199017.3%

13.8%

13.2%

12.4%

10.9%

9.0%

12.4%

14.8%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%

UtahTexas

GeorgiaColoradoCalifornia

Distr of ColNevadaVirginia

MarylandLouisiana

WashingtonIdaho

WyomingIllinois

MississippiMinnesota

North CarolinaIndianaKansas

New MexicoKentucky

TennesseeNew Jersey

NebraskaOklahomaNew York

New HampshireSouth Carolina

WisconsinAlabamaMichigan

MassachusettsArizonaOregon

MissouriOhio

ConnecticutSouth Dakota

DelawareArkansas

Rhode IslandNorth Dakota

VermontMontana

IowaPennsylvania

MaineWest Virginia

Florida

Source: Population Censuses

2010

1990

Page 40: Dr. Larry Swanson
Page 41: Dr. Larry Swanson

Employment Trends by Major Sector in Montana, 1990-2010 Understanding where the economy may be going in the future must start with the path of job growth and change in recent years. The chart shows total employment levels for the 24 major sectors of the economy over the last two decades. Retail trade is Montana’s largest employer among sectors with total employment (all full and part-time jobs) exceeding 70,000, although many jobs in this sector are less than full-time. Health care services is next with around 68,000 total jobs followed by accommodations and food services (lodging facilities and food service stores, etc.), then local government (all city and county government as well as local public schools), and then construction (all construction including buildings, heavy construction, and special trades). Total employment in Montana (including all full- and part-time jobs) grew by 28% in the ‘90s as compared with 20% growth nationwide, and by over 12% in the most recent decade (2000-10), as compared to only 5% growth nationally.

Total Employment by Major Sectors of the Montana Economy, 1990 to 2010

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

Source: BEA, U.S. Commerce (includes all full- and part-time employment)

Retail Trade

Health Care serv

Accom & Food serv

Local Govt

Construction

Other Services

P rof & Tech serv

Real Estate serv

Farm/Ranch

Admin & Waste sv

State Govt

Finance & Insur

Manufacturing

Arts,Ent,Recr serv

Wholesale Tr

Transpt & Warehsg

Fed Civil Govt

All M ining

Information serv

U.S. Military

Education serv

Forest & Ag serv

Utilities

Managemt serv

Page 42: Dr. Larry Swanson

Total Job Growth in Montana by Major Sector, 1998-2008 The chart isolates change in employment in each of the 24 major sectors leading up to and into the recent economic recession, which officially began nationally in December of 2007. This chart shows us the path Montana’s economy was on over this recent ten-year period, prior to the downturn. The largest increase in jobs among sectors was by construction where jobs grew by 16,200, accounting for 15.4% of all new jobs - construction also was among the sectors hardest hit by the recent recession. Jobs in health care services grew by 15,400 (14.6% of all new jobs). Jobs in real estate services increased by 11,900 (11.3% of all new jobs), and in professional and technical services by 11,700 (11.1% of jobs), and in administrative and waste services by 9,200 (8.8% of jobs). These five major sectors together – construction, health care, real estate services, professional and technical services, and administrative and waste services - accounted for 61% of all new jobs in Montana over this period. Three “trade” sectors (shown in orange) were next in line, together adding 20,000 jobs or about 19% of the total.

Total Employment Growth by Major Sector of the Montana Economy, 1998 to 2008

527

540

943

948

1,000

2,493

2,716

2,833

4,170

4,406

4,921

5,882

7,036

7,405

9,209

11,656

11,879

15,384

16,165

-3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 18,000

Farm & Ranch

Manufacturing

Forest & Ag serv

U.S. Military

Utilities

Transpt & Warehsg

Managemt serv

Wholesale Tr

Information serv

Fed Civil Govt

Local Govt

State Govt

Education serv

Retail Trade

All Mining & Mng Supt

Finance & Insur

Other Services

Arts,Ent,Recr serv

Accom & Food serv

Admin & Waste sv

Prof & Tech serv

Real Estate serv

Health Care serv

Construction

Page 43: Dr. Larry Swanson

Employment in Montana by Sub-sector Groupings, 2008 There are 87 individual economic sub-sectors and these are shown by major “groupings” in the chart. Within each grouping, sub-sectors are arrayed by total employment.

Sub-sectors are color-coded as follows: “teal” (professional, business, and financial services), “blue” (health care), “yellow” (government), “orange” (trade), “dark red” (construction), “black” (manufacturing), “white” (transportation), “purple” (petro refining and oil and gas), “brown” (all other mining and mining support), “brown-green” (wood products), and “green” (ag).

Total Employment in Montana by Sub-sector Groupings in 2008

29,159

30,285

25,939

18,53539,629

25,98046,236

14,81320,210

21,187

26,39134,350

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000

Farm & RanchAg Services

Forestry ServPaper Mfg

Wood Prod MfgMining Support serv

Mining exc O&GOil & Gas Extr

Petroleum Prod MfgPipeline Transpt

UtilitiesWarehsig/storage

Air TransptTransit & Ground Tranpt

Transpt Support servCouriers/messengers

Rail TransptTruck Transpt

Other Transp Equp MfgLeather Mfg

Textile Prod MfgElec. Equip Mfg

Apparel MfgPlastics Mfg

Motor Veh MfgPrim Metals Mfg

Computers, Elect MfgBeverage MfgChemical Mfg

Nonmetals MfgFurniture MfgPrinting Mfg

Machinery MfgFabr Metals Mfg

Miscel MfgFood Mfg

Heavy ConstrBuildings Constr

Spec Trade ContrLessors of intang assets

R.E. Rent/ leasing servReal Estate serv

Museums, zoos, parksMovie Theaters

Electronics RetlFurniture/Home Retl

Health Care Stores RetlC lothing Retl

Sporting, Musin RetlGaso Stations Retl

Personal & laundry servicesBldg Mat/Garden Retl

Performing arts/sportsMiscel Retl

Nonstore RetlMotor Veh Retl

Repair ServFood Stores Retl

Private household servGen Merch Retl

Lodging (hotels/motels)Amusemt, gambling, recrea

Food & Drinking placesWholesale trade

U.S. MilitaryFed Civilian Govt

State GovtLocal Govt, incl pub ed

Nursing/residential care facilSocial assistance

HospitalsAmbulatory health serv

Other Info ServCentral banks, funds, trusts

ISPs/search/data procesgWaste Mangmt Serv

Broadcasting businessesManagement Serv

Publishing businessesTelecommunications

Securities/ InvestmentsEducation Serv

Insurance businessesBanks & Credit Inst

Membership organizationsAdministrative Serv

Profes, Tech Serv

Source: Swanson using BEA, U.S. Commerce data (includes all full- and part-time jobs)

Page 44: Dr. Larry Swanson

Total Employment Growth in Montana by Sub-sector, 1998-2008 This chart focuses on “job growth” only for each sub-sector across these groupings from 1998 to 2008 – the time period leading up to the recent economic slowdown. It captures how employment was changing prior to the slowdown.

Of the 87 sub-sectors, the one with the biggest increase in jobs was “Professional, scientific and technical services” (legal services, accounting, bookkeeping, architectural, engineering, computer, research, advertising, etc., services). “Real estate services” had the second biggest increase.

Total Employment Growth in Montana by Sub-sector, 1998 - 2008

-2,945

4,44210,148

10,999

5,0485,925

4,5775,706

9,17111,543

-4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000

Farm & RanchAg Services

Forestry ServWood Prod Mfg

Paper MfgMining Support serv

Mining exc O&GOil & Gas Extr

Petroleum Prod MfgPipeline Transpt

UtilitiesTruck Transpt

Rail TransptAir Transpt

Warehsig/storageTransit & Ground Tranpt

Couriers/messengersTranspt Support serv

Prim Metals MfgFurniture Mfg

Nonmetals MfgPlastics Mfg

Beverage MfgComputers, Elect Mfg

Other Transp Equp MfgPrinting Mfg

Textile Prod MfgApparel MfgLeather Mfg

Chemical MfgElec. Equip Mfg

Miscel MfgMotor Veh Mfg

Food MfgMachinery Mfg

Fabr Metals MfgHeavy Constr

Buildings ConstrSpec Trade Contr

Lessors of intang assetsR.E. Rent/ leasing serv

Real Estate servNonstore Retl

Gaso Stations RetlMovie Theaters

Food Stores RetlMuseums, zoos, parks

Electronics RetlSporting, Musin Retl

C lothing RetlRepair Serv

Health Care Stores RetlMotor Veh Retl

Miscel RetlFurniture/Home Retl

Personal & laundry servicesPrivate household servBldg Mat/Garden Retl

Lodging (hotels/motels)Performing arts/sports

Gen Merch RetlAmusemt, gambling, recrea

Food & Drinking placesWholesale trade

U.S. MilitaryFed Civilian Govt

Local Govt, incl pub edState Govt

Nursing/residential care facilHospitals

Social assistanceAmbulatory health servPublishing businesses

Other Info ServBroadcasting businesses

Central banks, funds, trustsWaste Mangmt Serv

ISPs/search/data procesgTelecommunications

Management ServSecurities/ Investments

Insurance businessesBanks & Credit Inst

Membership organizationsEducation Serv

Administrative ServProfes, Tech Serv

Source: Swanson using BEA, U.S. Commerce data (includes all full- and part-time jobs)

Page 45: Dr. Larry Swanson

Total Employment in Montana’s Energy Sectors Considerable attention has been focused on the role that energy industries can play in Montana’s economy and this will continue to play out. The chart at the right shows total employment for several of the major energy industries in Montana, including electric and gas utilities, oil and gas extraction, mining support businesses, petroleum refineries, coal mining, and pipelines. The chart only shows annual data through 2010 but it can be seen that employment has grown in some areas – oil and gas and mining support – while declining or remaining somewhat stagnant in others. The lower chart shows how much of the state’s employment is accounted for by these energy sectors. In 2010 they accounted for only 1.8% of all jobs. While up from as low as 1.3% a few years ago, this is still less than the 2.1% in 1990.

Jobs Over Time for Energy-Related Sectors of the Montana Economy, 1990 to 2010

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10Source: BEA, U.S. Commerce & MT Dept of Labor & Industry

All

full-

& p

art-

tim

e jo

bs

Oil & Gasextraction

Electric,gas, &sanitaryserv

MiningSupportServ, incloil,gas,coal

PetroleumRefineries

Coal mining(estimates)

Petro &N.GasPipelines

Energy-Related Sectors Employment as Share of Total Employment, 1990 to 2010

1.8%

1.3%

2.1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

Page 46: Dr. Larry Swanson

Labor Earnings Levels among Energy-Related Sub-sectors in Montana, 1990 to 2009 Annual labor earnings received by persons working in these energy-related jobs are shown in the chart in millions of 2005 inflation-adjusted dollars.  While employment among the state’s utilities has fallen from levels in the mid-‘90s, labor earnings for these workers have generally risen and reached a high of $340 million in 2009, up from around $250 million at the beginning of the decade. Labor earnings by oil and gas workers reached $237 million in 2008, before falling back to $202 million in 2009. These are significantly higher than levels in the ‘90s.

Labor earnings in mining support activities and petroleum refining also have increased steadily over most of the last ten years, with refinery workers receiving labor earnings of $188 million in 2009. Mining support workers received $146 million in 2009 after receiving $203 million in 2008, both significantly higher levels than in the ‘90s.

Labor Earnings for Energy-Related Sectors of the Montana Economy, 1990 to 2009

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09

Source: BEA, U.S. Commerce & MT Dept of Labor & Industry

Mill

ion

s o

f 20

05 D

olla

rs

Electric, gas,& sanitaryserv

Oil & Gasextraction

PetroleumRefineries

Mining SupportServ, incloil,gas,coal

Coal mining(estimates)

Petro & N.GasPipelines

Page 47: Dr. Larry Swanson

Wage & Salary Employment vs. Self-employment (Proprietors) in Montana The chart shows annual employment counts for all workers in Montana, both self-employed and wage and salary or payroll employment. The second line shows the total number employed as “wage and salary workers.” The time period shown is 1980 through 2010. Montana experienced steady employment growth most of the last two decades leading up to the recent recession, with total employment growing by 28% in the ‘90s as compared to 20% nationally. The lower chart shows the percent of total employment by wage and salary workers. Wage and salary jobs currently represent a little less than three-fourths (73% in MT vs. 78% nationally) of all jobs in Montana and their share of total employment has been gradually decreasing.

Employment in MT Over Time: Total vs. Wage & Salary Workers Only, 1980-2010

390,752415,921

536,721

641,850

299,427 307,913

395,794

468,539

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

'80 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

Source: BEA, U.S. Commerce

total employment

wage & salaryworkers only

Wage & Salary Jobs as a Share of All Jobs Over Time in Montana

77.9%

74.0% 73.7% 73.0%

25%

35%

45%

55%

65%

75%

85%

'80 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

Page 48: Dr. Larry Swanson

Deconstruction of the MDLI Industry Jobs Projections The 2010 estimates used in making the 2020 projections were broken down into more detailed industries with ownerships separated as in the BEA industry employment data. Estimates for 2000 up to 2010 were examined and then these trends were compared with projections going forward to 2020. The chart at the right shows these breakdowns. Private healthcare is the largest employer among these 22 industries and it grew through the recent recession. Retail trade is 2nd largest but it is not projected to return to its peak employment level in 2008 until 2019. The construction industry, shown in red, had peak employment in 2007 of 32,000 jobs but it won’t grow back to this until after 2020.

Recent Past & Projected Employment by Major Industry, 2000 to 2020

0

15,000

30,000

45,000

60,000

75,000

'00

'02

'04

'06

'08

'10

'10E

'12p

'14p

'16p

'18p

'20P

Source: Swanson, using MDLI data, estimates, and projections

Health Care & Social Assist(priv)Retail Trade

Local Govt. (incl. ed. & health)

Accommodation & FoodServicesState Govt. (incl ed. & health)

Admin & Waste Services

Profess & Tech Services

Other Services, ex. Public Adm

Wholesale Trade

Finance & Insurance

Fed Civilian Govt (incl PO)

Arts, Entertainment, Recreation

Transportation & Warehsg

Information

Real Estate, Rental, Leasg

Educational Serv (priv)

Utilities

Managemt of comp./entrep.

Construction

Manufacturing

Mining

Agr, Forestry, Fishg & Huntg

Page 49: Dr. Larry Swanson

Expected Job Growth in Montana by Major Category The chart shows recently projected job growth for Montana for two major categories of the economy – services-producing activities and good-producing activities (this latter category includes manufacturing, construction, and natural resource and mining sectors, while all others are included in services). These estimates and projections are from Montana’s Department of Labor and Industry (MDLI) and jobs are as defined in BLS data-gathering - they only include primary jobs of those employed. Excluded from these are another 44,000 jobs by self-employed and unpaid family workers (primary jobs). The total number of these jobs in Montana is projected to increase from about 421,000 in 2010 to just over 474,000 in 2020 - an increase of over 53,000 jobs and 12.6%. This compares with a recent projection by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics of 14.8% for the nation as a whole.

Eighty percent of all these new jobs are projected to be in “services-producing” areas of the economy. This compares with 99% of all new jobs nationwide as projected by BLS.

Projected Total Job Levels in Montana, 2010 to 2020

50,411

370,536

420,947

61,089

413,027

474,116

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000

Goods-Producing Jobs

Services-Producing Jobs

All Jobs (excl. self-employed & unpaid family

ones)

Source: MT Labor & Industry data & estimates

2020 Proj

2010 Est

Projected Job Growth by Major Type, 2010 to 2020

10,678

42,491

53,169

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000

Goods-Producing Jobs

Services-Producing Jobs

All Jobs (excl. self-employed & unpaid family)

Page 50: Dr. Larry Swanson

Recent Trends in Construction Industry Total Employment in Montana The top chart shows levels of employment in Construction, Mining, and Trucking in Montana since 1990. Construction led employment growth in Montana’s economy during much of its relatively unparalleled economic expansion in the ‘90s and leading up to the national recession. And construction employment peaked in 2007 one year after construction employment peaked nationally. Construction employment paled state employment in mining and trucking. The lower chart shows employment in several sub-sectors within construction and mining. Within construction those employed as “special trade contractors” was the single biggest area of employment with much of this tied to housing construction in Montana.

Montana Industry Employment Trends: Construction, Mining, Trucking

'10

'07

0

15,000

30,000

45,000

60,000

'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

All

full-

& p

art-

tim

e jo

bs

All Construction

All Mining

All Truck transport

Subsector Employment Trends in Construction and Mineral Extraction

Specialty trade contractors

Construction of buildings

Heavy & civil engineering const

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

Specialty trade contractors

Construction of buildings

Heavy & civil engineering const

Mining (exc oil & gas)

Oil & gas extraction

Mining support activities

Page 51: Dr. Larry Swanson

Montana’s Current Housing Stock The total number of housing units in Montana in 2009 was 441,279 (July, 2009, U.S. Census). The top chart shows when these units were built, from earliest to latest. Of the total, nearly 196,000 were built prior to 1970 – over 44% of the total. Another 20% were built prior to 1980. So nearly two-thirds of all housing units in Montana were built prior to the last great “energy crisis”, the one in the early ‘80s when crude oil prices briefly spiked to over $35 a barrel. The number of homes built since 1998, totals 39,600 – less than 10% of the total. Older homes are much more likely to have been built with much less focus on energy efficiency. Older homes need to aggressively retro-fitted with increasingly cost-effective and money-saving energy measures.

Housing Units in Montana in 2009 by Period Built

72,28577,711

45,751

89,740

54,320

61,881

27,830

11,761

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

Before 1940 1940 - 1959 1960 - 1969 1970 - 1979 1980 - 1989 1990 - 1998 1999 - 2005 2005 - 2009

Source: U.S. Census 2000

Montana's Current Housing Stock by Period Built

Before 1940, 16.4%

1940 - 1959, 17.6%

1960 - 1969, 10.4%

1970 - 1979, 20.3%

1980 - 1989, 12.3%

1990 - 1998, 14.0%

1999 - 2005, 6.3%

2005 - 2009, 2.7%

Before 1940

1940 - 1959

1960 - 1969

1970 - 1979

1980 - 1989

1990 - 1998

1999 - 2005

2005 - 2009

Page 52: Dr. Larry Swanson

Construction Rise and Fall .. Recovery and Change Construction jobs peaked in 2007 in Montana at over 32,000 primary jobs and these had fallen to less than 23,000 by 2010. Projections by the Montana Dept. of Labor & Industry is that these jobs will gradually recover to only around 30,000 by 2020, 2,000 jobs less than the 2007 peak. Total construction employment (all full- and part-time jobs) totaled 54,000 in 2007 and these had fallen to less than 42,000 by 2010. The “housing boom” spurred construction to previously unheard of levels in Montana and the U.S. and it is unlikely that even as this industry recovers, it will look the same as the one at the peak in the housing bubble. For one thing, so much of construction was tied to single family housing development and, because of population aging, we are unlikely to have rapidly rising demand for single family housing construction over the next ten to twenty years. Energy Conservation Investments: While the construction industry will recover slowly, it also will change. Much more emphasis will be given to future construction on existing homes tied to energy conservation – increased insulation, window and door replacements, installation of more energy-conserving heating and cooling equipment and appliances. If $10,000 were invested in energy conservation measures in half the homes in Montana that were built prior to 1990, this would be on 170,000 homes for a total of $1.7 billion. This is equivalent to building 10,000 new homes at $170,000 each. Similar cost-effective energy investments could be made in commercial and governmental structures throughout the state. Investments in Restoration: Montana’s construction industry’s recovery also can be spurred by investing more public and private dollars in environmental and natural resource restoration. Montana is a large state with hundreds of sites and thousands of acres of land where such resources have been badly damaged and degraded. There is growing interest in the restoration of these damaged resources and much needs to be learned about the potential jobs that may be required, and the training and education necessary for more workers to move successfully into these jobs.

Page 53: Dr. Larry Swanson

Employment Trends in Montana by Major “Segments” of the Economy The chart below groups the 24 major sectors of the economy into eleven larger “segments” and levels of employment among these since 1990 are shown below. These charts provide pictures of employment growth leading up to the recent economic slowdown. When you combine professional, technical services with financial services and several other services involving “business services” (like administrative services, management services, information services, etc.), these together are Montana’s single largest employer among major segments. This segment also added the most jobs, as shown below.

Total Employment by Major "Segments" of the Montana Economy, 1990 to 2010

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

Source: BEA, U.S. Commerce

P rof,Tech,Fin&Bus Serv (6)

Wholesale &Retail Trade (2)

Construction &Real Estate (2)

Arts, Ent, Recr,Accom, Food(2)

Health CareServices (1)

Fed & StateGovt (3)

Local Govt, inclschools (1)

Manuf., Transpt,Utilities (3)

Other Services(1)

Farm, Ranch,Ag Serv (2)

All M ining &Mining Serv (1)

Total Employment Growth by Major Segment of the Montana Economy, 1998 to 2008

2,493

3,446

4,406

5,113

5,882

14,441

15,384

28,044

30,107

-10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000

Farm, Ranch, Ag Serv (2)

Manuf., Transpt, Utilities (3)

Local Govt, incl schools (1)

Fed & State Govt (3)

All Mining & Mining Serv (1)

Wholesale & Retail Trade (2)

Other Services (1)

Arts, Ent, Recr, Accom, Food (2)

Health Care Services (1)

Construction & Real Estate (2)

Prof,Tech,Fin&Bus Serv (6)

Page 54: Dr. Larry Swanson

Adjusted Jobs Projections for Montana by Major Industry The MDLI projections were carefully analyzed and adjusted in a number of areas. The biggest adjustment was in the assumed growth in healthcare services that is likely between 2010 and 2020. Healthcare jobs are projected to grow at 34% nationally and MDLI’s projection of 15% growth was adjusted upward to 25%, largely because the 65 and older population will increase by 50% during this period. The MDLI projection for manufacturing job growth was lowered. Most of the losses have been in wood products and primary metals and these jobs may not return. Manufacturing nationally will continue to decline. Mining jobs were adjusted higher by a small number.

Montana Employment by Industry Grouping: 2000, 2010, 2020 Adjusted Projections

4,386

6,867

16,384

22,774

7,453

14,135

15,892

20,408

39,497

45,117

39,173

55,942

70,371

62,548

4,595

8,067

17,884

29,995

7,816

14,808

17,643

22,620

41,779

43,586

49,302

67,022

76,551

78,185

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000

Ag, Forestry, Fishing, Hunting

Mining

Manufacturing

Construction

GOODS-PRODUCINGINDUSTRIES

Information

Transpt., Warehsg, Utilities

Other Services

Financial Activities

Educational Services(pub/priv)

All Govt.(less ed/health)

Profes. & Business Services

Leisure & Hospitality

Trade (retl/whol)

Healthcare & Social Asst.(pub/prv)

Source: Swanson, using MDLI estimates and projections

2020 proj

2010 est

2000

Page 55: Dr. Larry Swanson

Projected Job Growth in Montana by Industry Grouping – Adjusted With the adjustment to healthcare, it is projected to add 15,600 new jobs between 2010 and 2020, a 25% increase. Leisure and hospitality will add over 11,000 new jobs – the MDLI projection. Professional and business services will add over 10,000 jobs (MDLI projection). Construction will add over 7,000. Under these projections and adjustments, total jobs in Montana will rise to almost 480,000 – an increase of 59,000 with almost 83% of these new jobs in services. Jobs in all aspects of mining, including oil and gas, would increase by only 1,200 jobs, even with an adjustment upward from MDLI’s estimate.

Montana Jobs Growth by Industry Grouping: 2000-10 & 2010-20 (Adjusted)

19

2,178

-5,778

2,543

8,666

-435

550

1,095

1,990

2,617

1,705

8,816

6,644

15,154

209

1,200

1,500

7,221

-1,531

363

673

1,751

2,212

2,282

6,180

10,129

11,080

15,637

-8,000 -4,000 0 4,000 8,000 12,000 16,000

Ag, Forestry, Fishing, Hunting

Mining

Manufacturing

Construction

GOODS-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES

All Govt.(less ed/health)

Information

Transpt., Warehsg, Utilities

Other Services

Financial Activities

Educational Services (pub/priv)

Trade (retl/whol)

Profes. & Business Services

Leisure & Hospitality

Healthcare & Social Asst. (pub/prv)

SERVICES-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES

Source: Swanson, using MDLI estimates and projections (adj. healthcare, manufacturing, mining)

'10-'20

'00-'10

Page 56: Dr. Larry Swanson

Projected Job Growth in Montana by Major Occupational Groups Projections for future jobs by industry can be generally translated into projections for jobs according to occupational categories and the results of this are shown in the chart. Job figures in this chart also include over 40,000 jobs not included in the previous analysis by industry that are self-employed and unpaid family primary jobs. Of the 22 major occupational groups, the one with the highest number of jobs in Office and Administrative Support and these are projected to grow to 79,500 jobs by 2020, up from 71,200 in 2010. Jobs in trade-related occupations also are large in number. Construction and Extraction jobs will exceed 36,000 by 2020.

Montana Employment for Major Occupational Groups, 2010 & 2020 Projected (adjusted)

4,808

4,795

6,369

7,953

6,909

8,375

8,662

8,852

16,125

16,421

16,841

18,796

15,851

20,434

20,563

26,897

28,019

26,835

29,990

44,724

53,629

71,197

4,814

5,216

7,501

7,769

7,898

9,181

9,597

9,999

17,545

18,627

19,723

20,165

20,535

22,416

22,849

29,021

30,312

33,177

36,446

51,711

59,120

79,501

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000

Farming, Fishing, & Forestry

Legal Services

Computer & Mathematical

Life, Physical, & Social Sciences

Architecture & Engineering

Protective Services

Arts, Design, Entertmt, Sports & Media

Community & Social Services

Production

Business & Financial Operations

Personal Care & Service

Management services

Healthcare Support

Installation, Maintenance, & Repair

Building & Grounds Cleaning/Maint

Education, Training, & Library

Transportation & Material Moving

Healthcare Practitioners & Technicians

Construction & Extraction

Food Preparation & Serving Related

Sales and Related

Office & Administrative Support

Source: Swanson, using MDLI estimates and projections (adjusted)

2020 Projected Emp(Adjusted)

2010 Estimated Emp

Page 57: Dr. Larry Swanson

Projected Job Growth by Occupational Group, 2010 to 2020 This chart focuses on job growth only over the ten-year period into the future. The total number of jobs will increase by just over 13% and more than 60,000 jobs. Jobs in Office and Administrative support will grow the most, up by 8,300 or an increase of 12% and accounting for 14% of all new jobs. If you add the seven largest occupational categories shown in “teal” that are related to professional and business services, these will account for 26% of all new jobs. Job growth in the two occupational areas directly tied to healthcare, shown in blue, will account for over 18% of all new jobs. Jobs in trade areas (orange) will account for over 25%.

Projected Montana Job Growth by Major Occupational Group, 2010 to 2020 (Adjusted)

-184

6

421

806

935

989

1,132

1,147

1,369

1,420

1,982

2,124

2,206

2,286

2,293

2,882

4,684

5,491

6,342

6,456

6,987

8,304

-1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000

Life, Physical, & Social Sciences

Farming, Fishing, & Forestry

Legal Services

Protective Services

Arts, Design, Entertmt, Sports & Media

Architecture & Engineering

Computer & Mathematical

Community & Social Services

Management services

Production

Installation, Maintenance, & Repair

Education, Training, & Library

Business & Financial Operations

Building & Grounds Cleaning/Maint

Transportation & Material Moving

Personal Care & Service

Healthcare Support

Sales and Related

Healthcare Practitioners & Technicians

Construction & Extraction

Food Preparation & Serving Related

Office & Administrative Support

Page 58: Dr. Larry Swanson

Projected Job Growth Nationally Job growth as projected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) that is expected nationally for each of the major occupational groups is shown in the chart. Office and administrative support is also the largest occupation nationally and is projected to grow by 10% and account for over 11% of all new jobs. If you add together all of the job growth in areas closely tied to professional and business services (teal), these will account for 28% of all new jobs. Jobs for Healthcare Practitioners and Techs will increase by 26% and account for 10% of all new jobs. This along with jobs in Healthcare support occupations will account for 17% of all new jobs nationally. Job growth in the three areas tied to trade will account for 21% of all new jobs.

Projected U.S. Employment Growth by Major Occupational Group, 2010-20 (thousands)

131

191

253

343

357

365

582

616

664

778

800

1,093

1,173

1,329

1,337

1,404

1,407

1,444

1,869

2,020

2,336

-500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

Farming, Fishing, & Forestry

Legal

Life, Physical & Social Science

Architecture & Engineering

Arts, Design, Entertainmt, Sports & Media

Production

Protective Services

Community & Social Service

Management

Building & Grounds Cleaning/Maintenance

Computer and Mathematical

Installation, Maintenance & Repair

Food Preparation & Serving Related

Business & Financial Operations

Transportation & Material Moving

Personal Care & Service

Education, Training, & Library

Construction & Extraction

Healthcare Support

Sales & Related

Healthcare Practitioners & Technical

Office & Administrative Support

Page 59: Dr. Larry Swanson

Total Job Openings by Major Occupational Group Nationally Jobs will be available in the economy because of growth in the shear number of jobs in certain areas of work. But many more openings will occur because people leave jobs, either through retirement or movement to another occupation. The chart here shows the total number of “openings” for jobs across the full range of occupational groups for the nation as a whole. Next to each occupation also is noted what jobs in these groups as a whole pay (median annual wage). Office and administrative support has the most job growth as well as the most job openings, allowing for replacements.

Projected Total U.S Job Openings by Major Occupational Group, 2010-20

291

344

546

798

1,067

1,098

1,196

1,438

1,655

2,026

2,042

2,231

2,555

2,568

2,583

2,760

3,398

3,591

3,597

5,103

6,454

7,450

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000

Farming, Fishing, & Forestry ($19,630)

Legal ($74,580)

Life, Physical & Social Science ($58,530)

Architecture & Engineering ($70,610)

Arts, Design, Entertainmt, Sports & Media ($42,870)

Community & Social Service ($39,280)

Protective Services ($36,660)

Computer and Mathematical ($73,720)

Building & Grounds Cleaning/Maint ($22,490)

Installation, Maintenance & Repair ($40,120)

Healthcare Support ($24,760)

Production ($30,330)

Business & Financial Operations ($60,670)

Management ($91,440)

Personal Care & Service ($20,640)

Construction & Extraction ($39,080)

Education, Training, & Library ($45,690)

Healthcare Practitioners & Technical ($58,490)

Transportation & Material Moving ($28,400)

Food Preparation & Serving Related ($18,770)

Sales & Related ($24,370)

Office & Administrative Support ($30,710)

Source: BLS, U.S. Dept. of Labor (January, 2012)(Median annual wages for each group in 2010)

Page 60: Dr. Larry Swanson

Comparison of Median Annual Wages for Jobs within Occupational Groups The 22 occupational groups are arrayed in the chart according to median annual wage as determined in national surveys, with the one with the highest wage at the top and lowest at the bottom. Curiously, while jobs in “services” as opposed to production and manufacturing are thought to be low-paying, jobs in six occupations closely aligned with jobs in professional, administrative, business, and financial services have the highest wages. This reflects that jobs in many of these occupational areas also require the higher levels of education and training.

Major Occupational Groups by Median Annual Wage in the U.S., 2010

$18,770

$19,630

$20,640

$22,490

$24,370

$24,760

$28,400

$30,330

$30,710

$36,660

$39,080

$39,280

$40,120

$42,870

$45,690

$58,490

$58,530

$60,670

$70,610

$73,720

$74,580

$91,440

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000

Food Preparation & Serving Related

Farming, Fishing, & Forestry

Personal Care & Service

Building & Grounds Cleaning/Maintenance

Sales & Related

Healthcare Support

Transportation & Material Moving

Production

Office & Administrative Support

Protective Services

Construction & Extraction

Community & Social Service

Installation, Maintenance & Repair

Arts, Design, Entertainmt, Sports & Media

Education, Training, & Library

Healthcare Practitioners & Technical

Life, Physical & Social Science

Business & Financial Operations

Architecture & Engineering

Computer and Mathematical

Legal

Management

Source: BLS, U.S. Dept. of Labor (January, 2012)

Page 61: Dr. Larry Swanson

Comparing Projected Job Growth by Occupational Group in MT vs. U.S. The chart shows projected percentage growth in jobs for each occupational group in Montana versus nation-wide as projected by BLS. Overall employment will grow by 13.1% in Montana versus 14.3% nationally. Projected growth is very similar for jobs in construction and extraction, healthcare support, healthcare practitioners, and many other areas.

Percentage Job Growth by Major Occupational Group, 2010-2020, MT vs. U.S.

13.1%

0.1%

7.3%

7.9%

8.2%

8.8%

9.6%

9.7%

11.7%

10.2%

10.8%

11.1%

8.8%

13.0%

13.4%

23.6%

14.3%

15.6%

17.1%

17.8%

29.5%

21.5%

-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Life, Physical, & Social Science Occup

Farming, Fishing, & Forestry Occup

Management Occupations

Education, Training, & Library Occup

Transportation & Material Moving Occup

Legal Occupations

Protective Service Occupations

Installation, Maintenance, & Repair Occup

Office & Administrative Support Occup

Sales and Related Occupations

Arts, Design, Entertainmt, Sports, & Media Occup

Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maint. Occup

Production Occupations

Community & Social Services Occup

Business and Financial Operations Occupations

Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Occupations

Architecture & Engineering Occup

Food Preparation & Serving Related Occup

Personal Care & Service Occupations

Computer & Mathematical Occup

Healthcare Support Occupations

Construction and Extraction Occupations

Overall Employment

Source: U.S. data from BLS and Montana data from MT Dept. of Labor and Industry (adjusted)

MT

US

Page 62: Dr. Larry Swanson

Job Projections for Montana by “Groupings” of Occupational Groups This chart organizes the 22 major occupational groups and jobs estimated for 2010 and projected for 2020 (adjusted) into six overall groupings including: Administrative, Management, Financial

Professional, Technical, Scientific, Creative

Healthcare and Healthcare Support

Sales, Hospitality, Food services, Personal Care

Transportation, Production, Construction, Maintenance, Ag and Forestry

Montana Jobs for Major Occupational Groups by Grouping, 2010 & 2020 Proj (adj) (US med wage)

4,814

17,545

22,416

22,849

30,312

36,446

19,723

51,711

59,120

9,181

9,999

29,021

20,535

33,177

5,216

7,501

7,769

7,898

9,597

18,627

20,165

79,501

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000

Farming, Fishing, & Forestry ($19,630)

Production ($30,330)

Installation, Maintenance & Repair ($40,120)

Building & Grounds Cleaning/Maint ($22,490)

Transportation & Material Moving ($28,400)

Construction & Extraction ($39,080)

TRANSPT/PROD/CONST/MAINT/AG/FOR/FISH

Personal Care & Service ($20,640)

Food Preparation & Serving Related ($24,370)

Sales & Related ($24,370)

SALES/HOSPT/FOOD SV./PERSONAL CARE/ARTS

Protective Services ($36,660)

Community & Social Service ($39,280)

Education, Training, & Library ($45,690)

EDUC/TRAINING/POLICE & FIRE/SOCIAL SERV

Healthcare Support ($24,760)

Healthcare Practitioners & Technical ($58,490)

HEALTHCARE & HEALTHCARE SUPPORT

Legal ($74,580)

Computer and Mathematical ($73,720)

Life, Physical & Social Science ($58,530)

Architecture & Engineering ($70,610)

Arts, Design, Entertmt, Sports & Media ($42,870)

PROFESSIONAL/TECHNICAL/SCIENTIFIC/CREATIVE

Business & Financial Operations ($60,670)

Management ($91,440)

Office & Administrative Support ($30,710)

ADMINISTRATIVE/MANAGEMENT/FINANCIAL

Source: Swanson using MDLI estimates and projections (Sept. 2011)(adj. to healthcare, office/admin, production, extract)

2020

2010

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Detailed Occupations where job growth will be greatest in Montana Only 40 of 840 detailed occupations have projected growth for 2010-20 greater than 380 jobs. These account for 45% of all primary jobs in Montana and will account for 55% of all job growth and 44% of all replacement openings. Those in healthcare services have a blue background. Those in professional and business services have a light blue or teal background. Those in sales and retail trade have a light brown or tan background. Those in education, training, and community and protective services have yellow backgrounds. And those somewhere in transportation, construction, extraction, production, and agriculture have gray backgrounds. The single occupation with the highest projected growth is “registered nurses,” projected to add over 2,000 jobs. Four others in healthcare (blue backgrounds) also will add a lot of jobs: home health aides (1,643); nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants (1,416); licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses (678); dental assistants (383); and medical assistants (381).1/ Job projections data from the Montana Dept. of Labor & Industry web site (and their Sept., 2011, jobs projections)2/ Projections data from MDLI with adjustments made by Swanson (July, 2012)

Detailed Occupations with Largest Projected Job Growth in Montana, 2010 -202010 2010-20 2010-20 MT Med. US Med. Education &

Detailed Occupation Est/1 Growth/2 Replace/1 Wage/1 Wage/3 Training/3

Registered Nurses 8,887 2,098 1,550 $56,790 $64,690 5 1 1

Bookkeeping, Accounting, & Auditing Clerks 12,195 1,732 1,470 $28,830 $34,030 2 1 4Cashiers 13,438 1,678 6,040 $18,500 $18,500 1 1 2Retail Salespersons 15,687 1,672 4,380 $20,920 $20,670 1 1 2Home Health Aides 4,012 1,643 400 $20,920 $20,560 1 1 2

Combined Food Prep & Serving Wkrs, Incl Fast Food 9,518 1,635 2,020 #N/A $17,950 1 1 2Waiters and Waitresses 8,772 1,497 4,840 $17,470 $18,330 1 1 2Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 6,486 1,416 650 $23,160 $24,010 3 1 1

Carpenters 6,286 1,268 780 $34,500 $39,530 2 1 3Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers 4,569 1,085 550 $23,860 $23,400 1 1 2Customer Service Representatives 4,610 1,050 1,450 $28,990 $30,460 2 1 2Personal and Home Care Aides 2,840 941 350 $20,080 $19,640 1 1 2

Construction Laborers 3,674 871 250 $33,160 $29,280 1 1 2Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer 6,918 826 1,240 $36,460 $37,770 2 3 2Office Clerks, General 5,381 787 730 $23,330 $26,610 2 1 2

Cooks, Restaurant 4,058 757 1,040 $19,460 $22,140 1 2 4

Accountants and Auditors 3,274 740 550 $47,760 $61,690 6 1 1Licensed Practical & Licensed Vocational Nurses 3,077 678 960 $35,670 $40,380 3 1 1Medical Secretaries 2,307 675 310 $27,160 $30,530 2 1 4

Stock Clerks and Order Fillers 4,879 596 1,120 $20,930 $21,290 1 1 2Receptionists and Information Clerks 3,133 587 850 $22,830 $25,240 2 1 2Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 5,625 584 1,010 $18,240 $19,300 1 1 21st-Line Supers/Managers of Constr Trades & Extrac 2,620 567 510 #N/A $58,680 2 4 1

Operating Engineers & Other Constr Equipt Operators 2,571 560 440 #N/A $40,400 2 1 41st-Line Supers/Managers of Office & Admin Pers. 3,695 544 830 #N/A $47,460 2 3 1Electricians 2,075 541 500 $52,130 $48,250 2 1 31st-Line Supers/Managers of Retail Sales Wkers 6,745 534 1,450 #N/A $35,820 2 3 1

Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 4,145 521 640 $31,000 $38,460 2 1 4Child Care Workers 4,648 520 1,360 $17,700 $19,300 2 1 2Janitors & Cleaners, Exc Maids & Housekpg Cleaners 8,075 508 1,530 #N/A $22,210 1 1 2

Elementary School Teachers, Exc Special Ed 4,786 472 1,090 #N/A $51,660 6 1 5First-Line Supers/Managers of Food Prep/Serv 2,413 455 230 #N/A $29,560 2 3 1Food Preparation Workers 4,151 446 1,490 $16,960 $19,100 1 1 2Sales Reps, Wholesale & Manufacturing, Exc Tech 3,995 441 930 #N/A $52,440 2 1 4

General and Operations Managers 5,100 433 1,480 $70,280 $94,400 5 3 2Secretaries, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive 9,976 387 1,340 $26,310 $30,830 2 1 4Security Guards 1,776 385 370 $22,740 $23,920 2 1 1

Social and Human Service Assistants 1,483 383 310 $23,310 $28,200 2 1 2Dental Assistants 1,087 383 200 $29,810 $33,470 3 1 2Medical Assistants 1,041 381 120 $27,290 $28,860 2 1 2

SUBTOTALS 210,008 33,275 47,360

Shares of the Totals 45.4% 55.0% 44.1%

Detailed Occupations with Largest Projected Job Growth in Montana, 2010 -202010 2010-20 2010-20 MT Med. US Med. Education &

Detailed Occupation Est/1 Growth/2 Replace/1 Wage/1 Wage/3 Training/3

Registered Nurses 8,887 2,098 1,550 $56,790 $64,690 5 1 1

Bookkeeping, Accounting, & Auditing Clerks 12,195 1,732 1,470

Detailed Occupations with Largest Projected Job Growth in Montana, 2010 -202010 2010-20 2010-20 MT Med. US Med. Education &

Detailed Occupation Est/1 Growth/2 Replace/1 Wage/1 Wage/3 Training/3

Registered Nurses 8,887 2,098 1,550 $56,790 $64,690 5 1 1

Bookkeeping, Accounting, & Auditing Clerks 12,195 1,732 1,470 $28,830 $34,030 2 1 4Cashiers 13,438 1,678 6,040 $18,500 $18,500 1 1 2Retail Salespersons 15,687 1,672 4,380 $20,920 $20,670 1 1 2Home Health Aides 4,012 1,643 400 $20,920 $20,560 1 1 2

Combined Food Prep & Serving Wkrs, Incl Fast Food 9,518 1,635 2,020 #N/A $17,950 1 1 2Waiters and Waitresses 8,772 1,497 4,840 $17,470 $18,330 1 1 2Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 6,486 1,416 650 $23,160 $24,010

$28,830 $34,030 2 1 4Cashiers 13,438 1,678 6,040 $18,500 $18,500 1 1 2Retail Salespersons 15,687 1,672 4,380 $20,920 $20,670 1 1 2Home Health Aides 4,012 1,643 400 $20,920 $20,560 1 1 2

Combined Food Prep & Serving Wkrs, Incl Fast Food 9,518 1,635 2,020 #N/A $17,950 1 1 2Waiters and Waitresses 8,772 1,497 4,840 $17,470 $18,330 1 1 2Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 6,486 1,416 650 $23,160 $24,010 3 1 1

Carpenters 6,286 1,268 780 $34,500 $39,530 2 1 3Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers 4,569 1,085 550 $23,860 $23,400 1 1 2Customer Service Representatives 4,610 1,050 1,450 $28,990 $30,460 2 1 2Personal and Home Care Aides 2,840 941 350 $20,080 $19,640 1 1 2

Construction Laborers 3,674 871 250 $33,160 $29,280 1 1 2Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer 6,918 826 1,240 $36,460 $37,770 2 3

3 1 1

Carpenters 6,286 1,268 780 $34,500 $39,530 2 1 3Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers 4,569 1,085 550 $23,860 $23,400 1 1 2Customer Service Representatives 4,610 1,050 1,450 $28,990 $30,460 2 1 2Personal and Home Care Aides 2,840 941 350 $20,080 $19,640 1 1 2

Construction Laborers 3,674 871 250 $33,160 $29,280 1 1 2Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer 6,918 826 1,240 $36,460 $37,770 2 3 2Office Clerks, General 5,381 787 730 $23,330 $26,610 2 1 2

Cooks, Restaurant 4,058 757 1,040 $19,460 $22,140 1 2 4

Accountants and Auditors 3,274 740 550 $47,760 $61,690 6 1 1Licensed Practical & Licensed Vocational Nurses 3,077 678 960 $35,670 $40,380 3 1 1Medical Secretaries 2,307 675 310 $27,160 $30,530 2 1 4

Stock Clerks and Order Fillers 4,879 596 1,120 $20,930 $21,290 1 1

2Office Clerks, General 5,381 787 730 $23,330 $26,610 2 1 2

Cooks, Restaurant 4,058 757 1,040 $19,460 $22,140 1 2 4

Accountants and Auditors 3,274 740 550 $47,760 $61,690 6 1 1Licensed Practical & Licensed Vocational Nurses 3,077 678 960 $35,670 $40,380 3 1 1Medical Secretaries 2,307 675 310 $27,160 $30,530 2 1 4

Stock Clerks and Order Fillers 4,879 596 1,120 $20,930 $21,290 1 1 2Receptionists and Information Clerks 3,133 587 850 $22,830 $25,240 2 1 2Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 5,625 584 1,010 $18,240 $19,300 1 1 21st-Line Supers/Managers of Constr Trades & Extrac 2,620 567 510 #N/A $58,680 2 4 1

Operating Engineers & Other Constr Equipt Operators 2,571 560 440 #N/A $40,400 2 1 41st-Line Supers/Managers of Office & Admin Pers. 3,695 544 830 #N/A $47,460 2 3 1Electricians 2,075 541 500 $52,130 $48,250 2 1

2Receptionists and Information Clerks 3,133 587 850 $22,830 $25,240 2 1 2Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 5,625 584 1,010 $18,240 $19,300 1 1 21st-Line Supers/Managers of Constr Trades & Extrac 2,620 567 510 #N/A $58,680 2 4 1

Operating Engineers & Other Constr Equipt Operators 2,571 560 440 #N/A $40,400 2 1 41st-Line Supers/Managers of Office & Admin Pers. 3,695 544 830 #N/A $47,460 2 3 1Electricians 2,075 541 500 $52,130 $48,250 2 1 31st-Line Supers/Managers of Retail Sales Wkers 6,745 534 1,450 #N/A $35,820 2 3 1

Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 4,145 521 640 $31,000 $38,460 2 1 4Child Care Workers 4,648 520 1,360 $17,700 $19,300 2 1 2Janitors & Cleaners, Exc Maids & Housekpg Cleaners 8,075 508 1,530 #N/A $22,210 1 1 2

Elementary School Teachers, Exc Special Ed 4,786 472 1,090 #N/A $51,660 6 1 5First-Line Supers/Managers of Food Prep/Serv 2,413 455 230 #N/A

31st-Line Supers/Managers of Retail Sales Wkers 6,745 534 1,450 #N/A $35,820 2 3 1

Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 4,145 521 640 $31,000 $38,460 2 1 4Child Care Workers 4,648 520 1,360 $17,700 $19,300 2 1 2Janitors & Cleaners, Exc Maids & Housekpg Cleaners 8,075 508 1,530 #N/A $22,210 1 1 2

Elementary School Teachers, Exc Special Ed 4,786 472 1,090 #N/A $51,660 6 1 5First-Line Supers/Managers of Food Prep/Serv 2,413 455 230 #N/A $29,560 2 3 1Food Preparation Workers 4,151 446 1,490 $16,960 $19,100 1 1 2Sales Reps, Wholesale & Manufacturing, Exc Tech 3,995 441 930 #N/A $52,440 2 1 4

General and Operations Managers 5,100 433 1,480 $70,280 $94,400 5 3 2Secretaries, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive 9,976 387 1,340 $26,310 $30,830 2 1 4Security Guards 1,776 385 370 $22,740 $23,920 2 1 1

Social and Human Service Assistants 1,483 383 310 $23,310 $28,200

$29,560 2 3 1Food Preparation Workers 4,151 446 1,490 $16,960 $19,100 1 1 2Sales Reps, Wholesale & Manufacturing, Exc Tech 3,995 441 930 #N/A $52,440 2 1 4

General and Operations Managers 5,100 433 1,480 $70,280 $94,400 5 3 2Secretaries, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive 9,976 387 1,340 $26,310 $30,830 2 1 4Security Guards 1,776 385 370 $22,740 $23,920 2 1 1

Social and Human Service Assistants 1,483 383 310 $23,310 $28,200 2 1 2Dental Assistants 1,087 383 200 $29,810 $33,470 3 1 2Medical Assistants 1,041 381 120 $27,290 $28,860 2 1 2

SUBTOTALS 210,008 33,275 47,360

Shares of the Totals 45.4% 55.0% 44.1%

2 1 2Dental Assistants 1,087 383 200 $29,810 $33,470 3 1 2Medical Assistants 1,041 381 120 $27,290 $28,860 2 1 2

SUBTOTALS 210,008 33,275 47,360

Shares of the Totals 45.4% 55.0% 44.1%

Page 70: Dr. Larry Swanson

Education and training for projected jobs Education and training requirements and required work experience for these detailed occupations also is indicated for each of the 40 detailed occupations with the greatest projected increase in jobs. The education column (maroon colored numbers) indicates the “typical education required for entry” into each of the occupations. The next column under training with the numbers shown in “red” indicates how much experience in related or relevant work is ordinarily required for entry. The last column with numbers in “blue” indicates years of “on-the-job experience” ordinarily required for “competency” in the various occupations. All of these ratings are derived from national survey work done in conjunction with development of the SOC system and was retrieved on the BLS web site. For the 40 detailed occupations with the largest projected growth in Montana, only two require a college degree – accountants and auditors (requiring a Bachelor’s degree for entry or Code 6) and elementary school teachers (also requiring a Bachelor’s degree). Two require an Associate’s degree (Code 5), including registered nurses and general operations managers. So, only four of the 40 occupations require either an Associate’s or Bachelor’s degree for entry.

The coding system used in the tables for education (typical education required for entry, as contained in the SOC system) is as follows:

Code 1: Less than a high school diplomaCode 2: High school diploma or equivalentCode 3: Postsecondary non-degree awardCode 4: Some college, but no degreeCode 5: Associate’s degreeCode 6: Bachelor’s degreeCode 7: Master’s degreeCode 8: Doctoral or professional degree

 Of the 40 detailed jobs with the biggest growth, fully half (20) ordinarily require only a high school diploma for entry (Code 2). And 13 of the 40 require less than a high school diploma. The figure below shows the total number of jobs in Montana in 2010 and 2020 for each educational level assigned to each detailed occupation.

Page 71: Dr. Larry Swanson

The upper chart shows the share of 2020 jobs projected for both Montana and the U.S. as a whole by education requirement. Not only are education requirements for Montana jobs not changing much from 2010 to 2020, but they are moderately below education requirements for jobs projected nationally by 2020. For example, nationally 16 percent of all jobs in 2020 will require a Bachelor’s degree versus only 12.2 percent of Montana jobs. On the other hand, the share of all 2010 jobs requiring less than a high school diploma is 29 percent of all jobs in Montana versus 25.2 percent of all jobs nationally. At the highest end of the spectrum the share of jobs requiring a doctoral or professional degree is 2.8 percent in Montana versus 3.3 percent nationally. Looking at education requirements of new jobs only projected from growth between 2010 and 2020 (lower chart), of the projected job growth nation-wide, 18.6 percent will require a Bachelor’s degree, 2.2 percent will require a Master’s degree, and 4.5 percent will require a Doctoral or Professional degree. These are all higher percentages than for job growth projected in Montana. Whereas 30.9 percent of all Montana job growth is in jobs requiring less than a high school diploma. This compares with 23.1 percent nationally.

Education Requirements for Entry into 2020 Jobs, Montana vs. U.S.

29.0%

43.7%

5.0%

0.4%

5.6%

12.2%

1.3%2.8%

25.2%

43.0%

4.7%

0.6%

5.8%

16.0%

1.5%3.3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Less thanH.S. Diploma

(Code 1)

H.S. Diplomaor Equivalent

(2)

Postsecondnon-degreeaward (3)

SomeCollege, nodegree (4)

Associate'sDegree

(Code 5)

Bachelor'sDegree

(Code 6)

Master'sDegree

(Code 7)

Doctoral orProfes

Degree (8)

MT U.S.

Fig. 34: Education Required for Projected Job Growth from 2010-20, MT vs. U.S.

30.9%

39.8%

6.4%

0.4%

5.9%

12.0%

1.4%

3.1%

23.1%

38.3%

5.6%

0.7%

7.1%

18.6%

2.2%

4.5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

Less than H.S. Diploma (Code 1)

H.S. Diploma or Equivalent (2)

Postsecond non-degree award (3)

Some College, no degree (4)

Associate's Degree (Code 5)

Bachelor's Degree (Code 6)

Master's Degree (Code 7)

Doctoral or Profes Degree (8)

U.S.

MT

Page 72: Dr. Larry Swanson

Postsecondary education required for Montana job openings as projected There are 23 detailed occupations out of the 840 that are projected to have more than 400 total openings in Montana between 2010 and 2020 and that require post-secondary educations. These are shown at the right. At the top are ones requiring doctoral or professional degrees (Code 8) and there are two: Lawyers with projected openings totaling 804 and pharmacists with openings of 416. The U.S. median wage for both of these exceeds $100,000. Eleven of these require a Bachelor’s degree for entry (Code 6). These range from elementary school teachers (1,562 openings) and secondary school teachers (1,308) to accountants (1,290), recreation workers (530), human resource specialists (499), civil engineers (458), computer network systems and data communications analysts (411), and child and family social workers (404). U.S. median wages for these range from as high as $77,560 for civil engineers to as low as $22,260 for recreation workers. Some of these requiring Bachelor’s degrees also have further requirements to establish “competency,” also shown in the table to the far right. Those with Code 5 in the blue numbers are ones where a residency or internship is ordinarily required to show this competency.

Detailed occupations in Figure 36 requiring Associate’s degrees include registered nurses, general operations managers, forest and conservation technicians, construction managers, and computer support specialists. Jobs with the most openings that require some type of postsecondary, non-degree award include nursing aides, licensed practical and vocational nurses, dental assistants, and hairdressers and cosmetologists.

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Trends Shaping Future Job Growth in Montana Population Growth and Aging Factors constraining Future Labor Force Expansion in MontanaThe U.S. labor force will grow slowly and become much older as the baby-boom generation (those born between 1947 and 1963) ages. There are 77 million baby boomers and they will move entirely from the “prime age” for labor force participation to the 55-years-and-older group by 2020, with lower participation rates. This effect is somewhat offset by rising labor force participation among older workers. Montana experienced almost unparalleled economic expansion for most of the period since the early 1990s, leading up to the recent national recession and slowdown. This growth accommodated as well as spurred steady growth in the state’s labor force. Between 2010 and 2020 the 65 and older population of Montana will rise from about 15% to 20%, and continue to increase to 23 to 24% by 2025. The ratio between the size of Montana’s labor force and the population under 65 was consistently about 60% through the ‘90s and up until more recently, where it rose to 61%. This will continue to rise to about 64% by 2020, reflecting additions to the work force by older adults working beyond 65. A total labor force of about 540,000 in 2020 with 4% unemployment would provide employment of 518,000. Employment Trends in Montana leading up to the RecessionTotal employment in Montana (including all full- and part-time jobs) grew by 28% in the ‘90s as compared with 20% growth nationwide, and by over 12% in the most recent decade (2000-10), as compared to only 5% growth nationally. Looking at the path Montana’s economy was on in terms of job growth over this recent ten-year period, prior to the downturn (2000-08) - the largest increase in jobs among sectors was by construction where jobs grew by 16,200, accounting for 15.4% of all new jobs. Of course, construction also was among the sectors hardest hit by the recent recession with large job losses in the last several years, beginning in 2008. Jobs in health care services grew by 15,400 (14.6% of all new jobs). Jobs in real estate services increased by 11,900 (11.3% of all new jobs), and in professional and technical services by 11,700 (11.1% of jobs), and in administrative and waste services by 9,200 (8.8% of jobs). These five major sectors together – construction, health care, real estate services, professional and technical services, and administrative and waste services - accounted for 61% of all new jobs in Montana over this period.

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Projected Industry Employment GrowthNot all industries or occupations are expected to recover completely; others are expected to recover and have continued growth. With adjustments to healthcare, manufacturing, and mining jobs, total jobs in Montana would rise to almost 480,000 by 2020 – an increase of 59,000 jobs and with 83% of these new jobs somewhere in services. Among industry groupings, Healthcare jobs will increase the most, rising by 15,637, a 25% increase, and 27% of all new jobs in Montana. Jobs in Leisure and Hospitality will increase by 11,080, an increase of 20%, and 19% of all new jobs. The 3rd largest increase in jobs will be in Professional and Business services, with these rising by 10,129, an increase of 26% and accounting for 17% of all new jobs. Construction jobs will increase by 7,221, a 32% increase and 12% of all new jobs. But, even with this increase, the total construction jobs in 2020 will still lag the peak number in 2007. If you add Leisure and Hospitality with Trade, their job growth will account for 29% of all new jobs. If you add together Professional and Business Services, Financial Activities, and Information, these together will account for 22% of all new jobs. Over 3/4ths of all new jobs will be in Trade, Business services, and Healthcare.

Projected Job Growth by Major Occupational GroupOf the 22 major occupational groups, the one with the highest number of jobs in Office and Administrative Support and these are projected to grow to 79,500 jobs by 2020, up from 71,200 in 2010. Jobs in trade-related occupations also are large in number. Construction and Extraction jobs will exceed 36,000 by 2020.The total number of jobs will increase by just over 13% and more than 60,000 jobs. Jobs in Office and Administrative support will grow the most, up by 8,300 or an increase of 12% and accounting for 14% of all new jobs. If you add the seven largest occupational categories shown in “teal” that are related to professional and business services, these will account for 26% of all new jobs. Job growth in the two occupational areas directly tied to healthcare, shown in blue, will account for over 18% of all new jobs. Jobs in trade areas (orange) will account for over 25%.

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What increasingly really counts in local area economic development in this new economy? 

The Quality of your community .. infrastructure, schools, neighborhoods, commercial development, streets, parks, arts and cultural amenities, identity, energy, vitality, multi-dimensionality, visual appeal, surrounding environs, …  The Quality of your work force .. diverse, appropriately educated, and adaptive with training and education opportunities at all levels and nearby multi-faceted, well-delivered programs in workforce development   The Quality of your surrounding environment .. not just parks and attractive, well-planned neighborhoods, downtowns, and commercial districts, but landscapes and natural amenities like streams, lakes, mountains, forests, open spaces, etc.  Although most forces driving change in the economy are supra-community in nature – technological change, transportation developments, new products, major demographic shifts, global financial forces, etc. - so much of what really counts in area economic vitality .. is within the reach of community leaders and decision makers. .. they can help create and sustain the types of positive attributes that attract, nurture, and stimulate economic energy and vitality over time.

- Larry Swanson, O’Connor Center for the Rocky Mountain West, U. of Montana